One of the toughest handicapping spots is evaluating games where a team from a strong conference plays a team from a weak conference. Teams from the stronger conferences simply get the better recruits, so it would be assinine to assign the same point value to returning starters, for example. Second string players on a Florida would be all-conference players in the MAC conference.
I have come to believe when a team from a strong conference plays a team from a weak conference(e.g.Big 10 vs. MAC), the team from the weaker conference must have no weak links. If they do, go with the team from the stronger conference. Let's take the Arizona-Toledo matchup from last night. Arizona had some defensive questions, with only 4 starters back, and a new defensive coordinator( Stoops' brother left for another DC job). In conference, the Wildcats will pay for those deficiencies. But, against a Toledo squad with much lower recruited athletes, Arizona's weaknesses were never exposed. Toledo had a very weak link in the one spot they needed to be tough, at the QB position. On defense, they had only 5 starters back on a squad that was absolutely horrible last year. They might be able to get away with those deficiencies in conference, but, not against a team that gets the kind of recruits Arizona gets.
We took advantage of this conference imbalance in the ISU-N.I. game and will continue to look for other similar situations.
STAY IN TOUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR MORE POSSIBLE RELEASES.
Didn't think the Illini could hang with Missou. Sometimes you have to be happy with the games you stayed off. I liked Missou, but, I had the line at -11 and thought the actual line was too high for a rivalry matchup. As much as I don't like Ron Zook as a game-day coach, he still gets good recruits. You must always be wary of teams with good recruits.
Saturday, September 4, 2010
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