I heard a radio handicapping show on the weekend. The host expressed a common held belief that the more games you bet the more advantage you are giving the house. His advice was to pick a game and load up on it.
When you play Blackjack, the house has a built-in advantage, unless you've learned to count, and can turn the house edge to your favor. Unless you can count cards, the house has a mathematical advantage. The same advantage belongs to the house in craps, roulette, etc. The bottom line is the house has an advantage, and it's mathematical. Period!
The house does not have the same, no question, mathematical certainty of an advantage in college football picks. If a certain individual, through hard work and research, has proven over a 30-year period that he can pick against the spread at a 55-60% ratio, it is my belief that that person has a 55-60% chance of winning each play he makes, whether it is one play, or twenty.
As a result, I give out as many plays as I like in a college football weekend, because, quite simply, I believe each one of those picks has between a 55-60% chance of winning. In my opinion, if I can maintain my discipline, I have the statistical advantage on the house.
What do you think?
Monday, September 13, 2010
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