I did my work on this game, and the fact N.C. St. was playing home put them SLIGHTLY over the top in terms of my ratings for each team. In fact, if this game were played on a neutral field, I would've made Cincy a slight favorite. Before I knew what the actual line in this game was, I made this line -1.5 in favor of N.C. St. The line opened at Cincy -3, I believe, but, moved in my direction, to where the line now N.C. St. -2 in the game.
Okay, now I start the important final evaluation on this game. I was giving the over some consideration because of the return of both starting QBs, and some decent returning starters at the talent positions on both Cincy, and N.C.St. But, I like it when both teams are likely to contribute to the scoring. The Wolfpack scared me away from an over call, because of their poor offensive performance vs. UCF, and the fact their offensive line is inexperienced(they've lost 3, 2-year starters, including a draft choice at the all-important center position).
The inexperience in that offensive line of N.C.St., and the return of less than 1 starter on the defensive line, and the poor offensive performance last week for the Wolfpack, has made me take a closer look at Cincy in this game.
They have, in my opinion, the better players at the talent positions, and the better offensive line. Neither team is that strong defensively, but, Cincy does have some real leaders at the linebacking spots, with the return of 2nd team LB Schaeffer(100 tackles in '09), and 5 sacks returnee Stewart at another linebacking spot.
I think if Cincy would have played better vs. Fresno St., I would be more inclined to recommend a higher play on this game. But, because, Cincy has already experienced a tough road game in Fresno, and because the reasons mentioned above trump N.C.St.'s home-field, ESPN-televised advantage, I will recommend a 1* play on the Cincy Bearcats.
The USA Today's Sagarin ratings had N.C.St. as a 11 pt. favorite. My reaction, besides who cares, is " You've got to be kidding me." We'll see.
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