One of my friends, Bobby, always asks me: "do you feel confident today?"
My answer to him is always the same: I always feel confident in my picks. Does that mean I don't get nervous on the days I give my picks out? Absolutely not. I feel on game days the same way I used to feel prior to a big athletic event I was going to be involved in. I'm damn nervous.
This isn't an absolute business. Unlike what some charlatans would like you to believe, THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A LOCK!
Tonight's the night for which I've been waiting. Oklahoma St. has won three games with a lot of points scored against weak teams. I hope it's obscured the fact with linemakers that the Cowboys have a new QB, less than 1 starter back on the O-line, and an inexperienced receiving corps. On defense, they have only 4.5 starters back, including no returning cornerbacks!
They play a team in Texas A&M that has possibly the best returning QB in the Big 12 in Jerrod Johnson, a deep arsenal of talent at both the running back and receiver positions, and, 8 starters back on defense, including 2nd team AA LB Miller who had 17 sacks!!!!! last year(yeah, you read that right, 17 sacks!).
So, yes, as usual I am confident in my pick, Bobby. But, like that big game I was ready to pitch against my arch-rivals in a recent playoff, softball game, I am also damn nervous. I repeat: in this business, there are no locks, or guarantees.
In a 3*** star recommendation, take TEXAS A&M OVER OKLAHOMA ST.
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
SAM'S COLLEGE FOOTBALL COLLAGE: A madcap review of last week's college football action
MY FIRST IMPRESSIONS OF LAST WEEK'S ACTION, NO REHEARSALS, NO REVIEWS:
Do you think I might have been in the midst of a goofy weekend last week when, in our second pick of the week, the TCU kicker missed the extra point on the Frog's last TD to cost us at least a push in that game. Oh, Boy...B.C. was home against a V.T. squad that still only has 3.5 starters back on defense. I didn't see the game, but, will conclude it was more a product of B.C.'s inept offense than V.T.'s overwhelming defense...I finally get to a campus bar at Temple in the second half. I walk in and see RB Pierce being carted off with an injury, and Temple ahead 13-12. Nothing good happened from that point forward. I should've stayed home...I have known that one of my problems over the years is falling in love with a team in the pre-season and stubbornly going with them until I wake up. Duke has now fallen into that category. I stubbornly found a way to go with them every week so far. I fell in love with their coach Cutcliffe and his "arsenal" of returning offensive starters. Their offense sucks, and their defense can't stop my church's grade school team. Bye, Bye Blue Devils...
For Mark Richt's sake, I'm hoping his team was inexplicably down for his loss to Miss. St. There is no way the Dawgs should have had only 6 points scored by the middle of the third period...Look, I still believe Bama will pay for its lack of returning starters on defense, but, I now admit I'm a little more nervous about that after the Tide's defense stopped Ark. in the last quarter to win in comeback fashion. Gulp... Don't ever be surprised by what a team with highly rated recruits can do. UCLA has some of the most highly recruited players throughout their roster. Their team should not have beaten Texas. But, their athletes, unlike those from teams like Rice and Wyoming, have the talent to go toe-to-toe with the Longhorns...Notre Dame has similar highly recruited players. Coach Kelly will get that Irish squad together. If you like them, be patient...I hope Nevada doesn't over-celebrate their entry into the Top 25. They simply do not have the depth of talent to take anything for granted, and that includes UNLV, their next opponent...I felt confident when South Carolina went ahead 26-20 over Auburn,BUT, you can never feel comfortable when you need a team that is playing on the SEC road, at night. Other thoughts on that game: QB Newton will screw up sometime this year. After all, he's just a freshman. But, he is a future Heisman candidate; Coach Spurrier's insertion of a freshman QB in the last minutes of his loss to Auburn should have been a national story. QB Garcia may have had some key turnovers in that game, but, did anyone out there believe a freshman QB would lead his Gamecocks to a last minutes winning drive against a tough Auburn squad in Auburn at night? Spurrier may have cost his team a very realistic chance to win the SEC East...
The most surprising score of the day may have been the 16-13 final in the Memphis-UTEP game. I don't even remember who won the game, but, how in the heck did those two awful defenses hold the totals to under 30 points? I was mentally and physically exhausted by the start of that game. Good thing. I would have released the over in that game in my sleep...One of my favorite coaches of all time, Rocky Long, who did a great job at New Mexico for years, is now the defensive coordinator at S.D. St. His unique 3-3-5 defense almost took down Missouri, and destroyed Utah St. last week. The Aztecs have officially become one of my favorite teams...Finally, I'm really afraid of a letdown this week by my Temple Owls against Army. You need to have all faculties keenly aware when you are playing against that dang option. And, the Army, like Navy and Air Force, are really running the option well. GO OWLS!
Do you think I might have been in the midst of a goofy weekend last week when, in our second pick of the week, the TCU kicker missed the extra point on the Frog's last TD to cost us at least a push in that game. Oh, Boy...B.C. was home against a V.T. squad that still only has 3.5 starters back on defense. I didn't see the game, but, will conclude it was more a product of B.C.'s inept offense than V.T.'s overwhelming defense...I finally get to a campus bar at Temple in the second half. I walk in and see RB Pierce being carted off with an injury, and Temple ahead 13-12. Nothing good happened from that point forward. I should've stayed home...I have known that one of my problems over the years is falling in love with a team in the pre-season and stubbornly going with them until I wake up. Duke has now fallen into that category. I stubbornly found a way to go with them every week so far. I fell in love with their coach Cutcliffe and his "arsenal" of returning offensive starters. Their offense sucks, and their defense can't stop my church's grade school team. Bye, Bye Blue Devils...
For Mark Richt's sake, I'm hoping his team was inexplicably down for his loss to Miss. St. There is no way the Dawgs should have had only 6 points scored by the middle of the third period...Look, I still believe Bama will pay for its lack of returning starters on defense, but, I now admit I'm a little more nervous about that after the Tide's defense stopped Ark. in the last quarter to win in comeback fashion. Gulp... Don't ever be surprised by what a team with highly rated recruits can do. UCLA has some of the most highly recruited players throughout their roster. Their team should not have beaten Texas. But, their athletes, unlike those from teams like Rice and Wyoming, have the talent to go toe-to-toe with the Longhorns...Notre Dame has similar highly recruited players. Coach Kelly will get that Irish squad together. If you like them, be patient...I hope Nevada doesn't over-celebrate their entry into the Top 25. They simply do not have the depth of talent to take anything for granted, and that includes UNLV, their next opponent...I felt confident when South Carolina went ahead 26-20 over Auburn,BUT, you can never feel comfortable when you need a team that is playing on the SEC road, at night. Other thoughts on that game: QB Newton will screw up sometime this year. After all, he's just a freshman. But, he is a future Heisman candidate; Coach Spurrier's insertion of a freshman QB in the last minutes of his loss to Auburn should have been a national story. QB Garcia may have had some key turnovers in that game, but, did anyone out there believe a freshman QB would lead his Gamecocks to a last minutes winning drive against a tough Auburn squad in Auburn at night? Spurrier may have cost his team a very realistic chance to win the SEC East...
The most surprising score of the day may have been the 16-13 final in the Memphis-UTEP game. I don't even remember who won the game, but, how in the heck did those two awful defenses hold the totals to under 30 points? I was mentally and physically exhausted by the start of that game. Good thing. I would have released the over in that game in my sleep...One of my favorite coaches of all time, Rocky Long, who did a great job at New Mexico for years, is now the defensive coordinator at S.D. St. His unique 3-3-5 defense almost took down Missouri, and destroyed Utah St. last week. The Aztecs have officially become one of my favorite teams...Finally, I'm really afraid of a letdown this week by my Temple Owls against Army. You need to have all faculties keenly aware when you are playing against that dang option. And, the Army, like Navy and Air Force, are really running the option well. GO OWLS!
Saturday, September 25, 2010
EARLY EVENING PLAYS
GEORGIA IN A TWO STAR PLAY OVER MISS. ST.
FRESNO ST. IN A TWO STAR PLAY OVER MISS.
SOUTH CAROLINA IN TWO STAR PLAY OVER AUBURN
Make sure to keep in touch with the College Edge throughout the day by calling 267-752-3343.
I'm going to the campus to watch the rest of the Owls/PSU game, so I might release a play at any time. I'm working on some totals plays for the night games, SO PLEASE CALL!
FRESNO ST. IN A TWO STAR PLAY OVER MISS.
SOUTH CAROLINA IN TWO STAR PLAY OVER AUBURN
Make sure to keep in touch with the College Edge throughout the day by calling 267-752-3343.
I'm going to the campus to watch the rest of the Owls/PSU game, so I might release a play at any time. I'm working on some totals plays for the night games, SO PLEASE CALL!
MID-DAY PLAYS- GO OWLS!
This has been a hectic day, so we hope you've been keeping up with our picks at our phone line, 267752-3343. Here are my mid-day selections:
ARKANSAS PLUS THE POINTS OVER ALABAMA IN A TWO STAR PLAY
THE OVER IN THE ARKANSAS/ALABAMA GAME IN A TWO STAR PLAY
NOTRE DAME IN A ONE STAR PLAY
ARKANSAS PLUS THE POINTS OVER ALABAMA IN A TWO STAR PLAY
THE OVER IN THE ARKANSAS/ALABAMA GAME IN A TWO STAR PLAY
NOTRE DAME IN A ONE STAR PLAY
EARLY SATURDAY, SEPT. 18TH PLAYS
I'm a little exhausted right now, so we're going to list our two early plays, and ask you to call at about 11:30a.m. at 267-752-3343 for any possible additional selections.
BOSTON COLLEGE IN A 2** play OVER VIRGINIA TECH
UCF/KANSAS ST. TO GO UNDER THE TOTALS IN A 2** PLAY
BOSTON COLLEGE IN A 2** play OVER VIRGINIA TECH
UCF/KANSAS ST. TO GO UNDER THE TOTALS IN A 2** PLAY
Friday, September 24, 2010
TCU vs.SMU
June Jones is a very dangerous home underdog. He's continuing that trend here at SMU, now 4-2 ATS(against the spread) in that role. But, Jones is facing a very special team in TCU, and I just don't believe they are ready for what the Horned Frogs will bring tonight.
TCU has all facets of their offense working in sync, and, I just don't see SMU stopping them.
On offense, I don't believe SMU will have any success whatsoever running the ball, and when you are playing TCU, you better at least offer that possibility. SMU will have success passing the ball, this is a June Jones offense, after all. But, not enough to pose a real threat to a team I believe is on a mission this year.
I'll respect the home-underdog on a Friday night ESPN game(though it did not come through last night with Pitt's Panthers), and recommend TCU in a 1* play.
TCU will be relentless on offense throughout this season, so I expect at least 35 points from the Horned Frogs. I'm just not as confident SMU will contribute a lot to the scoring total, so, even though I lean to the over in this game, I will make no recommendation on the totals.
Tune in later tonight for my early afternoon, Saturday plays.
I leave you with this thought: I will always be excited by Temple matchups against Penn St., but, I have no delusions about how competitive they'd be in normal years. BUT, this game against PSU scheduled for 3:30p.m. tomorrow, may be the best chance Temple will ever have to defeat the Nittany Lions. Go Owls!
TCU has all facets of their offense working in sync, and, I just don't see SMU stopping them.
On offense, I don't believe SMU will have any success whatsoever running the ball, and when you are playing TCU, you better at least offer that possibility. SMU will have success passing the ball, this is a June Jones offense, after all. But, not enough to pose a real threat to a team I believe is on a mission this year.
I'll respect the home-underdog on a Friday night ESPN game(though it did not come through last night with Pitt's Panthers), and recommend TCU in a 1* play.
TCU will be relentless on offense throughout this season, so I expect at least 35 points from the Horned Frogs. I'm just not as confident SMU will contribute a lot to the scoring total, so, even though I lean to the over in this game, I will make no recommendation on the totals.
Tune in later tonight for my early afternoon, Saturday plays.
I leave you with this thought: I will always be excited by Temple matchups against Penn St., but, I have no delusions about how competitive they'd be in normal years. BUT, this game against PSU scheduled for 3:30p.m. tomorrow, may be the best chance Temple will ever have to defeat the Nittany Lions. Go Owls!
Thursday, September 23, 2010
MIAMI vs. PITT, PLUS A LOT MORE!
Take the time to read the articles below. It's good reading!
Ok, let's evaluate tonight's ESPN matchup between Miami/Pitt.
An inexperienced offensive line, and an inexperienced QB in sophomore Sunseri means to me that Pitt will have limited success both running and passing the ball vs. Miami's pretty tough defense. The 'Canes actually played better defense against OSU than the final score might indicate. They held the Buckeyes to 3.7 yards a carry, and under 50% in completion percentage. Not bad!
Miami has an inexperienced offensive line, but, the more experienced QB in Harris. They have decent running backs. I don't think those running backs will have overwhelming success against a Pitt defense which has become pretty reliable against the run. The difference in this game, in my opinion, and what will make Miami victorious, will be the more steady play of the better QB in the game, Miami's Harris. He faces a Pitt defense which is inexperienced in the CB position.
Pitt is a proud program with an increasing amount of highly recruited players. They are playing on a Thursday night on ESPN, and that gives the clear intangible edge to the Panthers tonight. Without looking at the line, I made Miami a 3.5 favorite. The present line is 3.5, Miami. I feel a slight lean to Miami, but, there will be no recommendation on the game.
Because of Pitt.'s inexperience in the O-Line, and QB, and because I believe Pitt will have some success stopping the rush game of Miami, I'll recommend a 1* play on the under in this game.
Some thoughts on upcoming weekend games: Did you see the very weak schedule the Big 10's playing this week... Is V.T. back, or are they an undeserved favorite at B.C...My big question in the Alabama-Ark. matchup is will Ark. be able to play enough defense to give their prominent offense a chance to keep up...Kentucky has really run the ball well this year, and they have a terrific RB in Locke, but, they haven't played a decent team yet. Their Florida game is interesting because the Gators haven't really played well yet... I'm really looking forward to the S.Caro-Auburn game. Can Auburn Fr. QB Newton keep the magic carpet ride going against the Gamecock tough defense... North Carolina doesn't exist for me anymore this season. I thought this team had a chance to have the best defense in the country, and with 10 starters back on offense, a chance at the National Title. No more. What may have been an interesting matchup vs. Rutgers now means nothing to me. I will not even look at scoring updates on this game... More to come tomorrow night, so, in the meantime, enjoy tonight's Miami/Pitt contest!
Ok, let's evaluate tonight's ESPN matchup between Miami/Pitt.
An inexperienced offensive line, and an inexperienced QB in sophomore Sunseri means to me that Pitt will have limited success both running and passing the ball vs. Miami's pretty tough defense. The 'Canes actually played better defense against OSU than the final score might indicate. They held the Buckeyes to 3.7 yards a carry, and under 50% in completion percentage. Not bad!
Miami has an inexperienced offensive line, but, the more experienced QB in Harris. They have decent running backs. I don't think those running backs will have overwhelming success against a Pitt defense which has become pretty reliable against the run. The difference in this game, in my opinion, and what will make Miami victorious, will be the more steady play of the better QB in the game, Miami's Harris. He faces a Pitt defense which is inexperienced in the CB position.
Pitt is a proud program with an increasing amount of highly recruited players. They are playing on a Thursday night on ESPN, and that gives the clear intangible edge to the Panthers tonight. Without looking at the line, I made Miami a 3.5 favorite. The present line is 3.5, Miami. I feel a slight lean to Miami, but, there will be no recommendation on the game.
Because of Pitt.'s inexperience in the O-Line, and QB, and because I believe Pitt will have some success stopping the rush game of Miami, I'll recommend a 1* play on the under in this game.
Some thoughts on upcoming weekend games: Did you see the very weak schedule the Big 10's playing this week... Is V.T. back, or are they an undeserved favorite at B.C...My big question in the Alabama-Ark. matchup is will Ark. be able to play enough defense to give their prominent offense a chance to keep up...Kentucky has really run the ball well this year, and they have a terrific RB in Locke, but, they haven't played a decent team yet. Their Florida game is interesting because the Gators haven't really played well yet... I'm really looking forward to the S.Caro-Auburn game. Can Auburn Fr. QB Newton keep the magic carpet ride going against the Gamecock tough defense... North Carolina doesn't exist for me anymore this season. I thought this team had a chance to have the best defense in the country, and with 10 starters back on offense, a chance at the National Title. No more. What may have been an interesting matchup vs. Rutgers now means nothing to me. I will not even look at scoring updates on this game... More to come tomorrow night, so, in the meantime, enjoy tonight's Miami/Pitt contest!
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
SAM'S COLLEGE FOOTBALL COLLAGE: a madcap review of week #3
This is fun because I simply look at last week's games and give you my first impressions. I'll study the stats and game action later: Was N.C. St. that good, or Cincy that bad? I believe every team needs a little time to adjust to a new coach, and despite decent returning talent for the Bearcats, particularly on offense, they must simply adjust to new coach, Butch Jones. I think you will see that adjustment problem at Notre Dame under new coach, Brian Kelly...Boise St. does not have a cake-walk to the national championship. If they survive Oregon St., which will be a tough contest, they face Nevada in Reno in late November. Maybe you were sleeping( or partying?) early Saturday morning when you missed Nevada destroy the PAC-10's Cal Bears, 52-31...Now, a team that may have a cake-walk to the BCS title game are my boys from FORT WORTH, TEXAS, the TCU Horned Frogs. They destroyed Baylor, and their toughest game in the remainder of this season is at Utah in early November. You know TCU will improve every game defensively, that's coach Gary Patterson's modus operandi. It's his offense which may be even more impressive this year. The Frogs have very good returning RBs, receivers, o-linemen, and a premier QB in Andy Dalton. My friend Aldo-Bo bet on them early in the year to win the national championship, and I believe my friend has a great chance to win $$$$.
I gave out La.Tech, but, I was still happy with the service academy results this past week. Army shut-out North Texas; Navy came back to beat L.T. 37-23, and Air Force played a great game in their 24-27 loss vs. Okla. Oh yeah, all three teams covered ATS(against the spread)!!!
Three teams got a lot of expert and public support last week in their matchups against three teams that are among the college football elite. All three teams lost, two convincingly. Can you name those three losing teams? Answer at the bottom.
Leave Georgia coach Mark Richt alone! He is 56-23 in conference games and 7-2 in bowl games, so any talk of his being on the hot seat should be stifled. He's breaking in a highly rated, but young freshman QB in Murray. Give him time to get it back together. He will... Did I say Duke would give 'Bama a tough game? Nah, that wasn't me...While I was sleeping, Iowa came back and tied Arizona 27-27, after being down 7-27. If Iowa's defense is as good as I thought they were, that defense should have taken over at that point. They didn't. I heard Arizona went right down the field and scored on the Hawkeyes. Very disappointing... And, speaking of a disappointing Big-10 result, Wisconsin barely survived against an ASU team that I believe will be horrible this year. Now, what I have to watch out for: am I over-rating Wisconsin, or did they let-down in a non-Big 10 matchup...Houston is pretty reliable when playing teams in their class. But, despite being tempted to pick them against UCLA, it's just a fact of CUSA life that Houston playing UCLA is a dangerous step up in class for the Cougars. They were never, seemingly, in that game.
I wrote in the beginning of the year that if my Temple Owls could beat UConn(accomplished!), and at least play PSU tough, the Owls could end up in the Top 30 by the end of the year. Heck, now I think Temple can beat them Nits. GO OWLS!
The three teams that were getting public and expert support last week in their games against three of the historically elite college football teams, AND THEN PROCEEDED TO LOSE CONVINCINGLY, were Miss.St(vs.LSU), Texas Tech(vs.Texas), and Washington(vs. Nebraska).
I gave out La.Tech, but, I was still happy with the service academy results this past week. Army shut-out North Texas; Navy came back to beat L.T. 37-23, and Air Force played a great game in their 24-27 loss vs. Okla. Oh yeah, all three teams covered ATS(against the spread)!!!
Three teams got a lot of expert and public support last week in their matchups against three teams that are among the college football elite. All three teams lost, two convincingly. Can you name those three losing teams? Answer at the bottom.
Leave Georgia coach Mark Richt alone! He is 56-23 in conference games and 7-2 in bowl games, so any talk of his being on the hot seat should be stifled. He's breaking in a highly rated, but young freshman QB in Murray. Give him time to get it back together. He will... Did I say Duke would give 'Bama a tough game? Nah, that wasn't me...While I was sleeping, Iowa came back and tied Arizona 27-27, after being down 7-27. If Iowa's defense is as good as I thought they were, that defense should have taken over at that point. They didn't. I heard Arizona went right down the field and scored on the Hawkeyes. Very disappointing... And, speaking of a disappointing Big-10 result, Wisconsin barely survived against an ASU team that I believe will be horrible this year. Now, what I have to watch out for: am I over-rating Wisconsin, or did they let-down in a non-Big 10 matchup...Houston is pretty reliable when playing teams in their class. But, despite being tempted to pick them against UCLA, it's just a fact of CUSA life that Houston playing UCLA is a dangerous step up in class for the Cougars. They were never, seemingly, in that game.
I wrote in the beginning of the year that if my Temple Owls could beat UConn(accomplished!), and at least play PSU tough, the Owls could end up in the Top 30 by the end of the year. Heck, now I think Temple can beat them Nits. GO OWLS!
The three teams that were getting public and expert support last week in their games against three of the historically elite college football teams, AND THEN PROCEEDED TO LOSE CONVINCINGLY, were Miss.St(vs.LSU), Texas Tech(vs.Texas), and Washington(vs. Nebraska).
Monday, September 20, 2010
Damn Power Surges
I spent an hour on SAM'S COLLEGE FOOTBALL COLLAGE, a madcap review of last week's college action. Just as I was finishing up and getting ready to edit my New Post, my computer got hit with a stinkin' power surge. If I can get that stuff back, I don't know how to do it. So, I'm too beat to start over( writing is tough work), and will ask you to return tomorrow night for this week's version of "SAM'S COLLEGE FOOTBALL COLLAGE."
Saturday, September 18, 2010
VERY LATE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYS!
Iowa has the no-doubt-about-it, better defense. They also have the better running game. I like that combination. It also doesn't hurt that coach Kirk Ferentz of Iowa is a gaudy 25-16 as a road dog.
Arizona is home, and their offense is pretty formidable. So, for those two reasons, I decided to stay away from a major play on this game.
IOWA IN A 2** PLAY OVER ARIZONA.
Stanford won 35-0 over UCLA last week, but, the stats for Stanford were not as dominant as the score was. This line is probably too high, and I have great respect for coach Jim Grobe of Wake Forest, who is 19-12 as a road underdog. W.Forest in a 1* play over Stanford.
HERE ARE RICH'S PRO PICKS FOR THIS WEEKEND:
Browns...Bills... Bengals... Steelers... Eagles...Cowboys... Panthers... Falcons... Vikes... Raiders
Broncos... Redskins... Chargers... Jets... Colts... 49ers
With Rich, this is what I advise: decide an amount you are comfortable wagering per game, and put that amount on every game Rich gives out. There are no guarantees in this business. But, follow my advice with Rich's picks, and I think you'll end up on the plus side of the ledger at the end of the year!
Arizona is home, and their offense is pretty formidable. So, for those two reasons, I decided to stay away from a major play on this game.
IOWA IN A 2** PLAY OVER ARIZONA.
Stanford won 35-0 over UCLA last week, but, the stats for Stanford were not as dominant as the score was. This line is probably too high, and I have great respect for coach Jim Grobe of Wake Forest, who is 19-12 as a road underdog. W.Forest in a 1* play over Stanford.
HERE ARE RICH'S PRO PICKS FOR THIS WEEKEND:
Browns...Bills... Bengals... Steelers... Eagles...Cowboys... Panthers... Falcons... Vikes... Raiders
Broncos... Redskins... Chargers... Jets... Colts... 49ers
With Rich, this is what I advise: decide an amount you are comfortable wagering per game, and put that amount on every game Rich gives out. There are no guarantees in this business. But, follow my advice with Rich's picks, and I think you'll end up on the plus side of the ledger at the end of the year!
WISCONSIN IN A MAJOR PLAY plus a lot more!
I apologize that I don't have the time to give the reasons for my picks. It's something I truly enjoy. I have to get to a family picnic, AND I'M RUNNIN' LATE.( Future article: if a picnic is scheduled for a college football Saturday, should you try to figure out a way out of it?)
Mid-day picks. Please call 267-752-3343 every hour on the hour starting at 4:00p.m. Don't miss any of my plays. I've had unbelievable days. If this is one them, don't miss it!
Duke and the over in the same game are 1* recommendations
Florida in a 2** play over Tennessee
Washington in a 2** play over Nebraska
Oregon St., and TCU in 1* plays
MAJOR PLAY: WISCONSIN OVER ARIZONA ST.
Please check in at my phone line!!!
Mid-day picks. Please call 267-752-3343 every hour on the hour starting at 4:00p.m. Don't miss any of my plays. I've had unbelievable days. If this is one them, don't miss it!
Duke and the over in the same game are 1* recommendations
Florida in a 2** play over Tennessee
Washington in a 2** play over Nebraska
Oregon St., and TCU in 1* plays
MAJOR PLAY: WISCONSIN OVER ARIZONA ST.
Please check in at my phone line!!!
ANOTHER EARLY DAY PLAY
TWO STAR PLAY ON THE OVER IN THE VIRGINIA TECH-EAST CAROLINA GAME.
Can V.T. score enough to get the over by themselves?
Can V.T. score enough to get the over by themselves?
EARLY SATURDAY PLAYS FOR SEPT.18TH
We have 5 plays for you in the early part of today's college football schedule. We'll keep it simple, and just give you the selections:
All Of the following plays are 2** plays. If you've decided you can afford to invest $100.00 per MAJOR PLAY or 4**** plays, then a 2** play is worthy of a $50.00 investment. Adjust the amount to what you can afford:
ARKANSAS OVER GEORGIA
THE OVER IN THE ARK./GEORGIA GAME
WEST VIRGINIA OVER MARYLAND
THE OVER IN THE IOWA ST./KANSAS ST. GAME
VIRGINIA TECH OVER EAST CAROLINA
Stay tuned throughout day at both my blog address, and my phone line at 267-752-3343, for additional selections.
All Of the following plays are 2** plays. If you've decided you can afford to invest $100.00 per MAJOR PLAY or 4**** plays, then a 2** play is worthy of a $50.00 investment. Adjust the amount to what you can afford:
ARKANSAS OVER GEORGIA
THE OVER IN THE ARK./GEORGIA GAME
WEST VIRGINIA OVER MARYLAND
THE OVER IN THE IOWA ST./KANSAS ST. GAME
VIRGINIA TECH OVER EAST CAROLINA
Stay tuned throughout day at both my blog address, and my phone line at 267-752-3343, for additional selections.
Thursday, September 16, 2010
EAT MY HUMBLE PIE
I had a bad feeling once I mentioned the Sagarin rating on the N.C.St.-Cincy game, and questioned the judgement of Sagarin making N.C.St an 11 pt. favorite, I'd be in trouble. Well, not only did they get it right, N.C.St. won by 11 pts. Unfortunately, that defeat should have been a lot worse.
Just a reminder that QB Collaros was only the 115th rated QB coming out of high school. Maybe without Brian Kelly coaching him, Collaros is playing to that talent level.
Just a reminder that QB Collaros was only the 115th rated QB coming out of high school. Maybe without Brian Kelly coaching him, Collaros is playing to that talent level.
MORE HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS: The Cincy-N.C.ST. matchup!
I did my work on this game, and the fact N.C. St. was playing home put them SLIGHTLY over the top in terms of my ratings for each team. In fact, if this game were played on a neutral field, I would've made Cincy a slight favorite. Before I knew what the actual line in this game was, I made this line -1.5 in favor of N.C. St. The line opened at Cincy -3, I believe, but, moved in my direction, to where the line now N.C. St. -2 in the game.
Okay, now I start the important final evaluation on this game. I was giving the over some consideration because of the return of both starting QBs, and some decent returning starters at the talent positions on both Cincy, and N.C.St. But, I like it when both teams are likely to contribute to the scoring. The Wolfpack scared me away from an over call, because of their poor offensive performance vs. UCF, and the fact their offensive line is inexperienced(they've lost 3, 2-year starters, including a draft choice at the all-important center position).
The inexperience in that offensive line of N.C.St., and the return of less than 1 starter on the defensive line, and the poor offensive performance last week for the Wolfpack, has made me take a closer look at Cincy in this game.
They have, in my opinion, the better players at the talent positions, and the better offensive line. Neither team is that strong defensively, but, Cincy does have some real leaders at the linebacking spots, with the return of 2nd team LB Schaeffer(100 tackles in '09), and 5 sacks returnee Stewart at another linebacking spot.
I think if Cincy would have played better vs. Fresno St., I would be more inclined to recommend a higher play on this game. But, because, Cincy has already experienced a tough road game in Fresno, and because the reasons mentioned above trump N.C.St.'s home-field, ESPN-televised advantage, I will recommend a 1* play on the Cincy Bearcats.
The USA Today's Sagarin ratings had N.C.St. as a 11 pt. favorite. My reaction, besides who cares, is " You've got to be kidding me." We'll see.
Okay, now I start the important final evaluation on this game. I was giving the over some consideration because of the return of both starting QBs, and some decent returning starters at the talent positions on both Cincy, and N.C.St. But, I like it when both teams are likely to contribute to the scoring. The Wolfpack scared me away from an over call, because of their poor offensive performance vs. UCF, and the fact their offensive line is inexperienced(they've lost 3, 2-year starters, including a draft choice at the all-important center position).
The inexperience in that offensive line of N.C.St., and the return of less than 1 starter on the defensive line, and the poor offensive performance last week for the Wolfpack, has made me take a closer look at Cincy in this game.
They have, in my opinion, the better players at the talent positions, and the better offensive line. Neither team is that strong defensively, but, Cincy does have some real leaders at the linebacking spots, with the return of 2nd team LB Schaeffer(100 tackles in '09), and 5 sacks returnee Stewart at another linebacking spot.
I think if Cincy would have played better vs. Fresno St., I would be more inclined to recommend a higher play on this game. But, because, Cincy has already experienced a tough road game in Fresno, and because the reasons mentioned above trump N.C.St.'s home-field, ESPN-televised advantage, I will recommend a 1* play on the Cincy Bearcats.
The USA Today's Sagarin ratings had N.C.St. as a 11 pt. favorite. My reaction, besides who cares, is " You've got to be kidding me." We'll see.
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
SAM'S COLLEGE FOOTBALL COLLAGE: A madcap review of last week's college games
I will look at last week's schedule and give my first thoughts on those games: Auburn's QB Newton may be a future Heisman candidate... West Virginia's coach Bill Stewart is lucky his Mountaineers came back. I still think he's the biggest question mark on that team...Georgia's a favorite in their contest over Ark. Huh? Maybe the linemakers are expecting a bounce-back after the Bulldawg loss to South Carolina. How about this: Ga. now 5-11 after a loss under coach Richt in the last 6 years...I have written that if Temple can beat UConn, and, at least play PSU tough, they can end up in the Top 30...
I still believe Alabama's defense will face some tough times this year. Do not be surprised if Duke scores decent points on the Bama defense... Iowa's coach Kirk Ferentz continues to be tremendous in the home favorite role(now 30-18 over last ten years)...coach Dan Hawkins went from a star in Boise St. to being on the verge of losing his job on Colorado...I like the Notre Dame program, and feel Notre Dame being good is good for college football. But, there just seems to be something missing. I feel this season may be tougher than anticipated...QB Pryor just looked so much cooler in the pocket than in his freshman and sophomore years. I was surprised. His performance vs. Miami has really raised OSU's stock as a national title contender...Nevada's coach Ault now a mind-boggling 20-4 as a home favorite...
THE SERVICE ACADEMY DILEMA: Air Force had NO offensive linemen back from '09, and they were playing a team in BYU that has had a lot of success defending the vaunted Falcon option. I fell into a trap I decided years ago I would not fall into: over-rating the lack of returning starters on a service academy offense. The service academies have JV teams. On those JV teams the players who are not on the "varsity", are still working on the intricate blocking patterns that make the option so difficult to defend. So, in past years, when a service academy had few returning starters on offense, its been my practice to stay away from those teams until I can judge how well the option is working. I went against my rule, made a MAJOR PLAY on BYU, and paid dearly for that pick. The moral of the story: never under-estimate the ability of the service academy option attack!
I still believe Alabama's defense will face some tough times this year. Do not be surprised if Duke scores decent points on the Bama defense... Iowa's coach Kirk Ferentz continues to be tremendous in the home favorite role(now 30-18 over last ten years)...coach Dan Hawkins went from a star in Boise St. to being on the verge of losing his job on Colorado...I like the Notre Dame program, and feel Notre Dame being good is good for college football. But, there just seems to be something missing. I feel this season may be tougher than anticipated...QB Pryor just looked so much cooler in the pocket than in his freshman and sophomore years. I was surprised. His performance vs. Miami has really raised OSU's stock as a national title contender...Nevada's coach Ault now a mind-boggling 20-4 as a home favorite...
THE SERVICE ACADEMY DILEMA: Air Force had NO offensive linemen back from '09, and they were playing a team in BYU that has had a lot of success defending the vaunted Falcon option. I fell into a trap I decided years ago I would not fall into: over-rating the lack of returning starters on a service academy offense. The service academies have JV teams. On those JV teams the players who are not on the "varsity", are still working on the intricate blocking patterns that make the option so difficult to defend. So, in past years, when a service academy had few returning starters on offense, its been my practice to stay away from those teams until I can judge how well the option is working. I went against my rule, made a MAJOR PLAY on BYU, and paid dearly for that pick. The moral of the story: never under-estimate the ability of the service academy option attack!
Monday, September 13, 2010
HOW MANY GAMES DO YOU BET ON IN A WEEKEND?
I heard a radio handicapping show on the weekend. The host expressed a common held belief that the more games you bet the more advantage you are giving the house. His advice was to pick a game and load up on it.
When you play Blackjack, the house has a built-in advantage, unless you've learned to count, and can turn the house edge to your favor. Unless you can count cards, the house has a mathematical advantage. The same advantage belongs to the house in craps, roulette, etc. The bottom line is the house has an advantage, and it's mathematical. Period!
The house does not have the same, no question, mathematical certainty of an advantage in college football picks. If a certain individual, through hard work and research, has proven over a 30-year period that he can pick against the spread at a 55-60% ratio, it is my belief that that person has a 55-60% chance of winning each play he makes, whether it is one play, or twenty.
As a result, I give out as many plays as I like in a college football weekend, because, quite simply, I believe each one of those picks has between a 55-60% chance of winning. In my opinion, if I can maintain my discipline, I have the statistical advantage on the house.
What do you think?
When you play Blackjack, the house has a built-in advantage, unless you've learned to count, and can turn the house edge to your favor. Unless you can count cards, the house has a mathematical advantage. The same advantage belongs to the house in craps, roulette, etc. The bottom line is the house has an advantage, and it's mathematical. Period!
The house does not have the same, no question, mathematical certainty of an advantage in college football picks. If a certain individual, through hard work and research, has proven over a 30-year period that he can pick against the spread at a 55-60% ratio, it is my belief that that person has a 55-60% chance of winning each play he makes, whether it is one play, or twenty.
As a result, I give out as many plays as I like in a college football weekend, because, quite simply, I believe each one of those picks has between a 55-60% chance of winning. In my opinion, if I can maintain my discipline, I have the statistical advantage on the house.
What do you think?
Saturday, September 11, 2010
LATE NIGHT ONE STAR PLAY
Like last night's winning ONE STAR play with the over in the Houston/UTEP game, sometimes certain stats just overwhelm you, and you feel the need to go with the obvious stats.
In the CSU-Nevada contest, you have a fantastic offense returning against a CSU that just can't keep up offensively. In addition to the great offensive numbers Nevada returns, coach Chris Ault is absolutely unreal in the role of home favorite. He is an incredible 19-4 in that role in his most recent tenure as Nevada coach. His offense has the ability to continue that streak.
NEVADA IN A ONE STAR PLAY
In the CSU-Nevada contest, you have a fantastic offense returning against a CSU that just can't keep up offensively. In addition to the great offensive numbers Nevada returns, coach Chris Ault is absolutely unreal in the role of home favorite. He is an incredible 19-4 in that role in his most recent tenure as Nevada coach. His offense has the ability to continue that streak.
NEVADA IN A ONE STAR PLAY
EARLY NIGHT PLAYS
PENN ST. IN A TWO STAR PLAY OVER ALABAMA: Bama has 1 starter back on defense!
OREGON IN A TWO STAR PLAY OVER TENNESSEE: This isn't your father's Vols. They will have some growing pains this year under new coach, Dooley.
Some interesting 10:30p.m. games. Return at 10:00p.m.
I think you have to go ahead with what you would normally do. Period!
OREGON IN A TWO STAR PLAY OVER TENNESSEE: This isn't your father's Vols. They will have some growing pains this year under new coach, Dooley.
Some interesting 10:30p.m. games. Return at 10:00p.m.
I think you have to go ahead with what you would normally do. Period!
WHAT DO YOU DO AT NIGHT WHEN YOU'VE HAD A BAD DAY?
Most of the games we've given out are at half, or, just at the start of the second half. I can go any where from 4-2 to losing them all.
The question that has probably affected all of us at one time is: what do you do at night when you've taken a beating during the day?
The correct answer, if you've truly set a bankroll aside, which in theory, should keep you from panicking at any one time in the season, is you go ahead and recommend the same plays at night you had intended to give out. Man, that is so much easier said than done.
In theory, if your success ratio is 55-60% for your career, five or six games at any one time will not affect your overall ratio. But, when you are in the middle of a bad day, those five, or six games are all that seem to matter. I can guarantee you that if my six games split, I will go ahead exactly as I had planned. But, if a worse result occurs, I'm not so sure.
Return at 6:50p.m. for my night recommendations. Theoretically, I shouldn't even look, or care, what happens with the mid-day games. Easier said than done, right?
The question that has probably affected all of us at one time is: what do you do at night when you've taken a beating during the day?
The correct answer, if you've truly set a bankroll aside, which in theory, should keep you from panicking at any one time in the season, is you go ahead and recommend the same plays at night you had intended to give out. Man, that is so much easier said than done.
In theory, if your success ratio is 55-60% for your career, five or six games at any one time will not affect your overall ratio. But, when you are in the middle of a bad day, those five, or six games are all that seem to matter. I can guarantee you that if my six games split, I will go ahead exactly as I had planned. But, if a worse result occurs, I'm not so sure.
Return at 6:50p.m. for my night recommendations. Theoretically, I shouldn't even look, or care, what happens with the mid-day games. Easier said than done, right?
MAJOR PLAY-PLUS MORE- IN MID-DAY GAMES
B.C. has dominated MAC teams, going 5-1 vs. spread over last 5 years. Combine that with a fine nucleus of returning starters on both sides of the ball, and home field, and I'll gladly recommend the B.C. Eagles. All recommendations below
FSU has the offense to score on Oklahoma, but, whay will keep me from making this a high recommendation is the poor defense FSU played last year. Let's be conservative here and see how well FSU plays defense.
Tressel of Ohio St. is very formidable as a home favorite(43-28!), and, bottom line is Miami isn't ready this early to play OSU.
Two new starters at QB against decent defenses is always worth a look as an under play, and that's the case in the Notre Dame-Michigan game. The totals line is too high.
MAJOR PLAY IN BYU-AIR FORCE GAME: AF has no offensive line starters back against a BYU team that knows how to play the option. AF has also lost 3 key players on defense. Like the under here as well. BYU has two young QBs playing against a pretty confusing blitzing AF defense.
1: Boston College in TWO STAR PLAY
2:FSU in a ONE STAR PLAY
3:Michigan-Notre Dame under the totals in a TWO STAR PLAY
4:Ohio St. in a TWO STAR PLAY
5:BYU-AF under the totals in a TWO STAR PLAY
6:BYU IN A MAJOR PLAY OVER AIR FORCE
FSU has the offense to score on Oklahoma, but, whay will keep me from making this a high recommendation is the poor defense FSU played last year. Let's be conservative here and see how well FSU plays defense.
Tressel of Ohio St. is very formidable as a home favorite(43-28!), and, bottom line is Miami isn't ready this early to play OSU.
Two new starters at QB against decent defenses is always worth a look as an under play, and that's the case in the Notre Dame-Michigan game. The totals line is too high.
MAJOR PLAY IN BYU-AIR FORCE GAME: AF has no offensive line starters back against a BYU team that knows how to play the option. AF has also lost 3 key players on defense. Like the under here as well. BYU has two young QBs playing against a pretty confusing blitzing AF defense.
1: Boston College in TWO STAR PLAY
2:FSU in a ONE STAR PLAY
3:Michigan-Notre Dame under the totals in a TWO STAR PLAY
4:Ohio St. in a TWO STAR PLAY
5:BYU-AF under the totals in a TWO STAR PLAY
6:BYU IN A MAJOR PLAY OVER AIR FORCE
WE HAVE TWO 12:00p.m. TWO STAR PLAYS
I know it's crazy, but, my numbers tell me Memphis is the higher rated team in their matchup with East Carolina. I won't make this a 4**** play because of how well the Pirate offense played last week, but, I'm willing to recommend a 2** play on Memphis, and then I'll hold my breath.
Wake Forest is a horrible favorite under coach Jim Grobe. They've just lost a 4-yr. starter in Riley Skinner, and they are changing their offense to a more run-oriented style. Duke may not have a very good defense, but, savyy coach David Cutcliffe has an experienced offense and a highly rated QB, with some playing time in '09. Watch out for pain-in-the-neck Duke BlueDevils in 2010.
TWO STAR PLAYS ON DUKE AND MEMPHIS.
I'll be back throughout the day on Saturday, and, it wouldn't hurt to call my phone line throughout the day, in the event I can't get to my computer at certain times. My number is 267-752-3343. Sam
Wake Forest is a horrible favorite under coach Jim Grobe. They've just lost a 4-yr. starter in Riley Skinner, and they are changing their offense to a more run-oriented style. Duke may not have a very good defense, but, savyy coach David Cutcliffe has an experienced offense and a highly rated QB, with some playing time in '09. Watch out for pain-in-the-neck Duke BlueDevils in 2010.
TWO STAR PLAYS ON DUKE AND MEMPHIS.
I'll be back throughout the day on Saturday, and, it wouldn't hurt to call my phone line throughout the day, in the event I can't get to my computer at certain times. My number is 267-752-3343. Sam
Friday, September 10, 2010
ONE STAR PLAY IN CRAZY CUSA MATCHUP
All the talent players from both Houston and UTEP return to their 2010 teams. Couple that with the fact both teams' defenses stink, and you have the potential for a 56-42 type game.
THE OVER IN A ONE STAR RECOMMENDATION IN THE UTEP-HOUSTON GAME.
THE OVER IN A ONE STAR RECOMMENDATION IN THE UTEP-HOUSTON GAME.
Thursday, September 9, 2010
Sam's College Football Collage: a madcap review of last week's college football action
MAJOR PLAY at the end of this article. Take the time to read my last two MAJOR PLAYS below. Sam's College Collage will be a weekly article which will give you my impressions of last week's games. No rehearsals, no reviews; I will simply look at a game from last week and give you my thoughts: Coach Spurrier's teams are still playing better on defense than offense. Who would've ever figured on that...36 points is an awful lot of points for USC to give up to Hawaii. They will get their butts kicked a couple times this year... I love the MAC conference( when they play each other)... Illinois surprised me. I stayed away from the game because the spread was too high, but, I honestly didn't think Illini had a chance. Just goes to show you what highly rated players are always capable of accomplishing. I'm stubborn though: Zook's bad coaching will soon take over... Nice first game for under-achieving Colorado coach Dan Hawkins, but, his team's stats should've been better with the amount of starters the Buffs have back...How the heck did Vandy score 21 points? Maybe N.Western is badder than I thought... Miss.St lost tonight, and I won a MAJOR PLAY, but, I think coach Dan Mullen will do a good job... Don't get too excited by N.D.'s win. Purdue stinks on offense, and have only 1 really outstanding player on defense... I had UConn in a 1* star play, but, I was really happy with how Coach Rodriguez's team played. Coach has won a lot of money for me over the years, and there was no way he forgot to coach over the last two years, or, at least that's what I hoped. He got off to a slow starts at Tulane and W.Va. Maybe that'll be his legacy here as well... I repeat: the first MAJOR PLAY of this year came with one of my favorite coaches of all time, Bill Snyder. Is that not a tremendous omen???Watch out for the Orange defense this year... If Jake Locker expects to win the Heisman, he has to figure out a way to beat BYU. Instead, he scores only 17 points against a team with only 4.5 starters on defense. This hurts me to say this, because I like Locker, but, BYU's 2 kids at QB played better than he did... Ok.St. killed WSU. Now, I have to hope they slug Troy, because I believe the Cowboys will eventually suck this year. Linemakers, please over-rate them Cowboys!!!I said Okla. is over-rated. It's ashamed USU couldn't take the Sooners out. Okla. will probably wake up for the next couple of games But, I will wait for the right time to pounce...TCU has a REAL team this year. Like I wrote earlier, Oregon St. is tough, and they played the Horned Frogs in a proud manner. Again, the Beavers will give Boise a tough matchup... Friggin' agents, and friggin' players from North Carolina. That defense had a chance to make my prediction of the TarHeels being a long-shot favorite to win the national championship go up in smoke. I'm so pissed at what happened there that I now hope the Heels get their butts kicked all year... Cincy Bearcats had a nice nucleus of offensive players back. How they scored 14 points quickly, and then not score again was a shocker. If that happened against a West Virginia, fine, but, not score another point against Fresno St? You've got to be kidding... Wiscy-UNLV too late for me to stay awake, but 41-21 score not impressive at all. Maybe I'll take a look at UNLV and their new coach... CUSA has picked scores up where they left them last yearThat's to say they SCORE LOTS OF POINTS. Hint: There's a Cusa play Friday night I like... Will Coach June Jones pull the same miracle coaching job at SMU as he did at Hawaii? No way that game should've even been close... Did you ever think you'd see an experienced service academy option turn over the ball in the red-zone as much as Navy did Monday? I like coach Friedgen(the rotund one), so part of me was happy to see Maryland win... QB Taylor threw the ball a lot better than I thought he could against Boise ST. But, I said Boise St. should've been the favorite, and, despite, a lot of sweaty under-arms, I was right. See you next week at SAM'S COLLEGE COLLAGE!
MAJOR PLAY FOR SATURDAY
Again, I like a game where the wrong team is favored. BYU should be favored over their MWC rival, Air Force. Instead, like the Boise St./Virginia Tech game, the team that should be favored, and opened as a favorite(BYU-2.5), is now an underdog. Keep in touch with the line. If it starts moving again toward BYU, take BYU at the most advantageous line. More on this game on later.
MAJOR PLAY ON BYU
MAJOR PLAY FOR SATURDAY
Again, I like a game where the wrong team is favored. BYU should be favored over their MWC rival, Air Force. Instead, like the Boise St./Virginia Tech game, the team that should be favored, and opened as a favorite(BYU-2.5), is now an underdog. Keep in touch with the line. If it starts moving again toward BYU, take BYU at the most advantageous line. More on this game on later.
MAJOR PLAY ON BYU
MAJOR PLAY ON A THURSDAY NIGHT: Does it get any better than this?
Time is short, so I'll make this very easy. I have Auburn rated higher than Miss.St, and, this line has moved considerably to a pick 'em game. Auburn should be a 4 t0 6 pt. favorite.
AUBURN IN A MAJOR PLAY.
AUBURN IN A MAJOR PLAY.
Monday, September 6, 2010
MAJOR PLAY ON LABOR DAY!
Happy Labor Day everyone(what's to be happy about? The summer's over; the crossing guards are back; the flashing yellows return; school buses are back to cause havoc; and the weather will soon change. Thank God I have college football!)!
Let me give you my quick thoughts on the Maryland-Navy matchup. I am never bored watching the triple option run correctly, and no one runs it better than Navy's QB Ricky Dobbs, so, even though this matchup doesn't get most juices flowing, I can't wait to see the game. Navy has all the offensive experience in this game, as the aforementioned Dobbs returns, as well as the top 4 Rbs, and both receivers(even though that makes little difference with Navy's option). Maryland has some talent back on offense, but, a very inexp. QB.
What keeps me from making a play on Navy is the tremendous losses they incurred in their interior defense. As a result, Maryland will also probably control the line of scrimmage, and that's enough of a reason for me to stay away from a side in the game.
What I do recommend is a polite 1* play on the over in this matchup. Maryland has inexperience and youth in two key areas of their defense: defensive line and defensive backfield. That is not good if you have to play the option. Navy has lost a lot of good players in their interior defense, so, I think Maryland will put points on the board. So, a laborious 1* play on the over!
MAJOR PLAY AT 8:00P.M.:
If Virginia Tech beats Boise St. tonight, they will not do it by pounding the ball alone. TCU, and Oregon last year couldn't do it, and Virginia Tech won't do it tonight. That means V.T. will have to have success passing the ball to beat the Broncos. Again, TCU, and, Oregon, the two major teams this defense played last year, were not able to successfully pass against Boise. And, neither will Virginia Tech. Taylor is a decent two-way threat, but, there is no way a QB who completed less than 56% of his passes in '09, will succeed throwing the ball vs. a good defense that returns 10 starters!
Point #2:The Hokies have only 3.5 starters back on defense. They suffered immense losses on defense. They go against an offense that returns 10 starters, and a QB in Kellen Moore that threw for an incredible TD/INT ratio of 39-3 last year. And, looking back on last year, and, I think that's okay to do since so many starters return, against an incredible TCU defense, this team, and, its QB, completed 60% of its passes and threw no interceptions in their 17-10 bowl win over the Horned Frogs.
The line opened with the Boise St. Broncos the deserved favorite. The line has since moved to Virginia Tech as the favorite. Todd McShay and the rest of you famous prognosticators, keep talking up the Techsters, and keep that line moving in our favor. Listen up: with Oregon St.'s novice QB Katz gaining much needed experience, the Broncos will be in more danger vs. the Beavers than they will be here.
BOISE ST. BRONCOS IN A MAJOR PLAY
I'm too pumped up to start my new featured column today. Look for the introduction of "Sam's College Collage," a mad re-cap of the week that was in college football, tomorrow. Chow! Sam
Let me give you my quick thoughts on the Maryland-Navy matchup. I am never bored watching the triple option run correctly, and no one runs it better than Navy's QB Ricky Dobbs, so, even though this matchup doesn't get most juices flowing, I can't wait to see the game. Navy has all the offensive experience in this game, as the aforementioned Dobbs returns, as well as the top 4 Rbs, and both receivers(even though that makes little difference with Navy's option). Maryland has some talent back on offense, but, a very inexp. QB.
What keeps me from making a play on Navy is the tremendous losses they incurred in their interior defense. As a result, Maryland will also probably control the line of scrimmage, and that's enough of a reason for me to stay away from a side in the game.
What I do recommend is a polite 1* play on the over in this matchup. Maryland has inexperience and youth in two key areas of their defense: defensive line and defensive backfield. That is not good if you have to play the option. Navy has lost a lot of good players in their interior defense, so, I think Maryland will put points on the board. So, a laborious 1* play on the over!
MAJOR PLAY AT 8:00P.M.:
If Virginia Tech beats Boise St. tonight, they will not do it by pounding the ball alone. TCU, and Oregon last year couldn't do it, and Virginia Tech won't do it tonight. That means V.T. will have to have success passing the ball to beat the Broncos. Again, TCU, and, Oregon, the two major teams this defense played last year, were not able to successfully pass against Boise. And, neither will Virginia Tech. Taylor is a decent two-way threat, but, there is no way a QB who completed less than 56% of his passes in '09, will succeed throwing the ball vs. a good defense that returns 10 starters!
Point #2:The Hokies have only 3.5 starters back on defense. They suffered immense losses on defense. They go against an offense that returns 10 starters, and a QB in Kellen Moore that threw for an incredible TD/INT ratio of 39-3 last year. And, looking back on last year, and, I think that's okay to do since so many starters return, against an incredible TCU defense, this team, and, its QB, completed 60% of its passes and threw no interceptions in their 17-10 bowl win over the Horned Frogs.
The line opened with the Boise St. Broncos the deserved favorite. The line has since moved to Virginia Tech as the favorite. Todd McShay and the rest of you famous prognosticators, keep talking up the Techsters, and keep that line moving in our favor. Listen up: with Oregon St.'s novice QB Katz gaining much needed experience, the Broncos will be in more danger vs. the Beavers than they will be here.
BOISE ST. BRONCOS IN A MAJOR PLAY
I'm too pumped up to start my new featured column today. Look for the introduction of "Sam's College Collage," a mad re-cap of the week that was in college football, tomorrow. Chow! Sam
We'll be back around 3:45p.m.
Please return around 3:45p.m. for insights into the Maryland-Navy matchup at 4:00p.m., and a possible new feature, tentatively called, "Sam's College Collage." See you then!
Sunday, September 5, 2010
Today's picks will be on the phone line
Real life intrudes on my college football routine as I will be away from my computer today. Picks, and info can be accessed at my phone(I don't answer) at 267-752-3343. Sam
Saturday, September 4, 2010
MAJOR PLAY TONIGHT!
Vanderbilt is just plain bad on offense, they lost their best defensive player to an ACL from an already poor defense, and the coaching situation is in flux, as Johnson is not coaching, and an interim coach is in place.
Northwestern has a decent, if not spectacular offense back, a strong interior defense, and a more solid, stable coaching staff. Earlier, you may have read that it's my opinion you can make money on bad teams. We made money earlier today for Colorado, and against a bad team(CSU), and I think we can make a nice investment here against a bad team in Vandy.
MAJOR PLAY ON NORTHWESTERN
Some selections should be made simply because your instincts tell you it's the right move. So it is with my next selection. Army's Cadets are in the second year of coach Ellerson's triple option offense. They ran the ball effectively last year vs. E.Michigan(300 yards rushing). This year Army has 8 starters back on offense( the same amount on defense), so I see no reason why they shouldn't dominate E.M.'s horrible defense to an even greater degree this year. I feel Army makes some large strides this year under coach Ellerson( won 3 titles in 8 years at CalPoly), and it kicks off tonight vs. E. Michigan.
2** play on Army
Northwestern has a decent, if not spectacular offense back, a strong interior defense, and a more solid, stable coaching staff. Earlier, you may have read that it's my opinion you can make money on bad teams. We made money earlier today for Colorado, and against a bad team(CSU), and I think we can make a nice investment here against a bad team in Vandy.
MAJOR PLAY ON NORTHWESTERN
Some selections should be made simply because your instincts tell you it's the right move. So it is with my next selection. Army's Cadets are in the second year of coach Ellerson's triple option offense. They ran the ball effectively last year vs. E.Michigan(300 yards rushing). This year Army has 8 starters back on offense( the same amount on defense), so I see no reason why they shouldn't dominate E.M.'s horrible defense to an even greater degree this year. I feel Army makes some large strides this year under coach Ellerson( won 3 titles in 8 years at CalPoly), and it kicks off tonight vs. E. Michigan.
2** play on Army
MAJOR PLAY FOR 6:00p.m.
Immediately after writing my last article, I did my work on Syracuse vs. Akron. Syracuse may have some questions on offense, but, as I wrote in the last posting, they have the much better athletes, and a 1000 yard-rusher returning for the Orange. More than enough to score on a weak Zip defense.
On defense, Syracuse has almost 10 starters back, including a 1st Big East DT, and two all-league linebackers who combined for 16 SACKS!!!!! That is unheard of, and I will write right now, that this defense will make Syracuse a strong contender in the Big East! Akron simply cannot respond offensively to the Orange crush "D." Their QB is very sub-par, their running game stinks, and they lose a 2-yr. starter at the all-important center position.
On top of all this, Akron introduces a new coaching staff( coach Ianella has no head-coaching experience), with new schemes on both offense and defense.
MAJOR PLAY ON SYRACUSE.
On defense, Syracuse has almost 10 starters back, including a 1st Big East DT, and two all-league linebackers who combined for 16 SACKS!!!!! That is unheard of, and I will write right now, that this defense will make Syracuse a strong contender in the Big East! Akron simply cannot respond offensively to the Orange crush "D." Their QB is very sub-par, their running game stinks, and they lose a 2-yr. starter at the all-important center position.
On top of all this, Akron introduces a new coaching staff( coach Ianella has no head-coaching experience), with new schemes on both offense and defense.
MAJOR PLAY ON SYRACUSE.
Strong Conference vs. Weak Conference matchups
One of the toughest handicapping spots is evaluating games where a team from a strong conference plays a team from a weak conference. Teams from the stronger conferences simply get the better recruits, so it would be assinine to assign the same point value to returning starters, for example. Second string players on a Florida would be all-conference players in the MAC conference.
I have come to believe when a team from a strong conference plays a team from a weak conference(e.g.Big 10 vs. MAC), the team from the weaker conference must have no weak links. If they do, go with the team from the stronger conference. Let's take the Arizona-Toledo matchup from last night. Arizona had some defensive questions, with only 4 starters back, and a new defensive coordinator( Stoops' brother left for another DC job). In conference, the Wildcats will pay for those deficiencies. But, against a Toledo squad with much lower recruited athletes, Arizona's weaknesses were never exposed. Toledo had a very weak link in the one spot they needed to be tough, at the QB position. On defense, they had only 5 starters back on a squad that was absolutely horrible last year. They might be able to get away with those deficiencies in conference, but, not against a team that gets the kind of recruits Arizona gets.
We took advantage of this conference imbalance in the ISU-N.I. game and will continue to look for other similar situations.
STAY IN TOUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR MORE POSSIBLE RELEASES.
Didn't think the Illini could hang with Missou. Sometimes you have to be happy with the games you stayed off. I liked Missou, but, I had the line at -11 and thought the actual line was too high for a rivalry matchup. As much as I don't like Ron Zook as a game-day coach, he still gets good recruits. You must always be wary of teams with good recruits.
I have come to believe when a team from a strong conference plays a team from a weak conference(e.g.Big 10 vs. MAC), the team from the weaker conference must have no weak links. If they do, go with the team from the stronger conference. Let's take the Arizona-Toledo matchup from last night. Arizona had some defensive questions, with only 4 starters back, and a new defensive coordinator( Stoops' brother left for another DC job). In conference, the Wildcats will pay for those deficiencies. But, against a Toledo squad with much lower recruited athletes, Arizona's weaknesses were never exposed. Toledo had a very weak link in the one spot they needed to be tough, at the QB position. On defense, they had only 5 starters back on a squad that was absolutely horrible last year. They might be able to get away with those deficiencies in conference, but, not against a team that gets the kind of recruits Arizona gets.
We took advantage of this conference imbalance in the ISU-N.I. game and will continue to look for other similar situations.
STAY IN TOUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR MORE POSSIBLE RELEASES.
Didn't think the Illini could hang with Missou. Sometimes you have to be happy with the games you stayed off. I liked Missou, but, I had the line at -11 and thought the actual line was too high for a rivalry matchup. As much as I don't like Ron Zook as a game-day coach, he still gets good recruits. You must always be wary of teams with good recruits.
Friday, September 3, 2010
HERE ARE MY SATURDAY COLLEGE PICKS
Before we give you our picks for tomorrow, here is my advice on what you should wager on 1* plays;2** plays; 3** plays; and 4****, or what we also call our MAJOR, plays.
Remember, in an earlier article, I advised that you invest 3% to 5% of your bankroll( what you've decided you can afford to lose in a season) on all MAJOR plays during this season. If your bankroll is $5000, every MAJOR play is worthy of $150.00 per play, or 3% of your bankroll. 1* plays are worthy of approximately $40.00 for each play; 2** plays are worthy of $75.00 for every play; 3*** plays are worthy of a $110.00 investment for every play. I'm asking that you do everything possible follow these recommendations. It will instill you with tremendous discipline. Now, here are the picks for Saturday, Sept. 4th:
Colorado vs. CSU: Call my phone at between 1:30p.m.-1:45p.m. for this game.
KSU vs. UCLA: KSU in a MAJOR play over UCLA
Louisville vs. Kentucky: Louisville in a 2** play
UConn vs. Michigan: UConn in a 1* play: UConn would have normally been a higher play, but, Michigan still has the better recruits, and, I still believe Rodriguez is a good coach.Let's see what he does here
Purdue vs. Notre Dame: 2** play on the under
Washington vs. BYU: MAJOR play (4****) on Washington. Under my rating system, they are simply the better team, and, rather than an underdog, they should be favorites.
Please tune in again at approximately 1:00p.m. for more potential picks, and a schedule for the rest of the day.
Remember, in an earlier article, I advised that you invest 3% to 5% of your bankroll( what you've decided you can afford to lose in a season) on all MAJOR plays during this season. If your bankroll is $5000, every MAJOR play is worthy of $150.00 per play, or 3% of your bankroll. 1* plays are worthy of approximately $40.00 for each play; 2** plays are worthy of $75.00 for every play; 3*** plays are worthy of a $110.00 investment for every play. I'm asking that you do everything possible follow these recommendations. It will instill you with tremendous discipline. Now, here are the picks for Saturday, Sept. 4th:
Colorado vs. CSU: Call my phone at between 1:30p.m.-1:45p.m. for this game.
KSU vs. UCLA: KSU in a MAJOR play over UCLA
Louisville vs. Kentucky: Louisville in a 2** play
UConn vs. Michigan: UConn in a 1* play: UConn would have normally been a higher play, but, Michigan still has the better recruits, and, I still believe Rodriguez is a good coach.Let's see what he does here
Purdue vs. Notre Dame: 2** play on the under
Washington vs. BYU: MAJOR play (4****) on Washington. Under my rating system, they are simply the better team, and, rather than an underdog, they should be favorites.
Please tune in again at approximately 1:00p.m. for more potential picks, and a schedule for the rest of the day.
ANATOMY OF A MAJOR PLAY: THIS YEAR'S FIRST!
Like the Colorado-CSU game, I'm going to do a full handicapping analysis on my first MAJOR play of the year, and, it's appropriate that my first MAJOR play involves one of my favorite coaches of all time. The game UCLA vs. KSU.
Again, I did my ratings early on in June on these two teams. At that time, they were pretty even. But, then it was time to check injuries, suspensions, and other roster adjustments( remember, I adjust my ratings WEEKLY during the season). The bootom line: UCLA has had a tremendous amount of attrition at key positions. So, now I ask five key questions in the game: Will KSU run the ball on UCLA? KSU has a 1000 yd. rusher returning, 8 of the top 10 offensive linemen back, and a coach who loves to run vs. a defense that has only ONE returning starter in defensive front seven. YES, KSU will run the ball, and, very effectively. Will KSU pass the ball on UCLA? KSU has a serviceable senior QB, but a lot of inexperience at the receiving corps( no returning starters vs. a team that always plays pretty decent pass defense. KSU's job will be to throw no interceptions, because they will have little success passing the ball. Will UCLA run the ball on KSU? The Bruins have lost 3 projected starters already this year in the offensive line, have barely more than 1 starter back at that position, and they have a weak Rb crew vs. a KSU team that returned to Wildcat style defense in '09, giving up only 105 yards rushing per game. A solid nucleus of returning players in the interior defense means UCLA will have great difficulty rushing the ball. Will UCLA pass the ball on KSU? QB Prince is hurting, and he's not that good regardless of health. His backups have good potential, but, no experience. This could be a weakness for KSU later in the season, but, not Saturday. UCLA will have limited success passing the ball( also note that in Snyder's previous tenure at KSU, his pass defenses were almost always good).
The final question: Who has the tangible advantage in the game? Are you kidding? KSU, and my main man, Bill Snyder, are opening the season at home, in a revenge situation( UCLA beat them at home last year, 23-9), against a LA team that's traveling to one of the most difficult destinations( I mean that literally) in Manhattan, Kansas. The clear tangible edge goes to KSU.
I spent a little time envisioning how the game will be played, and, before knowing what the actual line on the game is, I put the line at KSU -13 over UCLA.
When I saw the actual line opened at -2( and is presently at -1.5 to -2), my firsr MAJOR play of the season was finalized. It's very appropriate that the team I'm backing is coached by one of my favorites of all time, Bill Snyder.
KSU IN A MAJOR PLAY OVER UCLA!
Again, I did my ratings early on in June on these two teams. At that time, they were pretty even. But, then it was time to check injuries, suspensions, and other roster adjustments( remember, I adjust my ratings WEEKLY during the season). The bootom line: UCLA has had a tremendous amount of attrition at key positions. So, now I ask five key questions in the game: Will KSU run the ball on UCLA? KSU has a 1000 yd. rusher returning, 8 of the top 10 offensive linemen back, and a coach who loves to run vs. a defense that has only ONE returning starter in defensive front seven. YES, KSU will run the ball, and, very effectively. Will KSU pass the ball on UCLA? KSU has a serviceable senior QB, but a lot of inexperience at the receiving corps( no returning starters vs. a team that always plays pretty decent pass defense. KSU's job will be to throw no interceptions, because they will have little success passing the ball. Will UCLA run the ball on KSU? The Bruins have lost 3 projected starters already this year in the offensive line, have barely more than 1 starter back at that position, and they have a weak Rb crew vs. a KSU team that returned to Wildcat style defense in '09, giving up only 105 yards rushing per game. A solid nucleus of returning players in the interior defense means UCLA will have great difficulty rushing the ball. Will UCLA pass the ball on KSU? QB Prince is hurting, and he's not that good regardless of health. His backups have good potential, but, no experience. This could be a weakness for KSU later in the season, but, not Saturday. UCLA will have limited success passing the ball( also note that in Snyder's previous tenure at KSU, his pass defenses were almost always good).
The final question: Who has the tangible advantage in the game? Are you kidding? KSU, and my main man, Bill Snyder, are opening the season at home, in a revenge situation( UCLA beat them at home last year, 23-9), against a LA team that's traveling to one of the most difficult destinations( I mean that literally) in Manhattan, Kansas. The clear tangible edge goes to KSU.
I spent a little time envisioning how the game will be played, and, before knowing what the actual line on the game is, I put the line at KSU -13 over UCLA.
When I saw the actual line opened at -2( and is presently at -1.5 to -2), my firsr MAJOR play of the season was finalized. It's very appropriate that the team I'm backing is coached by one of my favorites of all time, Bill Snyder.
KSU IN A MAJOR PLAY OVER UCLA!
Thursday, September 2, 2010
TWO 2** PLAYS ON THE OPENING NIGHT OF COLLEGE FOOTBALL
So. Miss. has a good defense and two,good, experienced QBs who are capable of kepping the game competitive. So. Carolina not bad, but, not deserving of this big a spread.
ISU, as I mentioned in an earlier writing, is very good in non-conference games, ATS. It doesn't hurt that they have a very good, under-rated offense.
Two 2** plays on So.Miss. and ISU.
Explanation coming on what to do with 1*, 2**, and 3*** plays.
ISU, as I mentioned in an earlier writing, is very good in non-conference games, ATS. It doesn't hurt that they have a very good, under-rated offense.
Two 2** plays on So.Miss. and ISU.
Explanation coming on what to do with 1*, 2**, and 3*** plays.
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Attn: The Steps I Take in Handicapping a Game: Colorado vs. CSU
I've been handicapping games for a long time, and the no-doubt-about-it, most important aspect of my evaluations on any game I handicap is the rating I've given the two teams I'm looking at. I start working on each Division 1A team in June, and by this time, I've established a rating for almost all of them.
In the Colorado-CSU matchup, I have a team with a large edge in terms of team rating, and that team is Colorado. The rating edge grew even more when evaluating the game when I checked the injury reports, and found that CSU lost two starting defenders in their defensive line.
I then asked myself 5 questions concerning the Colo.-CSU game: Will Colo. run the ball on CSU? The Buffs have all their O-Line back from '09, returning Rbs with decent numbers, and CSU has just lost 2 def. linemen to injury. Yes, they will run. Will Colo. pass the ball on CSU? Yes. The QBs return, as well as top two receivers(plus the expd. O-line) vs. 6 returning def. starters for CSU that was horrible against the pass last year. Will CSU run the ball on Colo? Big losses in the O-line, against a veteran Buff defense, and it's my determination they will not be able to run the ball enough to protect their inexpd. QB. Will CSU pass the ball on COLO.? A new QB that's a freshman, with an inexperienced offensive line, and a receiving corps that's lost its top two receivers. Colo. has an experienced defense, with experienced CBs, so, no, I don't think CSU will have much success passing the ball.
The last question I ask is does either team have a clear intangible advantage? This is a rivalry game, so I would probably give a slight advantage to the team I think is the underdog, and I'd think that would be CSU.
Not knowing the actual line in this game, I try to picture what I feel will happen in this matchup. I think Colo. will run and pass against an injured, but, already weak CSU defense. CSU just doesn't have the experience or talent to keep up with a team that is clearly more experienced and more talented. If CSU gets behind early, I can envision a rout.
I've done the work, and now it's time to put my line on this game, and, remember, right now, I have no idea what the actual line on the game is.
I MAKE COLORADO A 15PT. FAVORITE OVER CSU! I will now look at the opening line on the game... I'm looking...TGS had the opening line at -9.5... If that is anywhere near the present line on the game, Colorado will be a strong, major play. Stay tuned.
In the Colorado-CSU matchup, I have a team with a large edge in terms of team rating, and that team is Colorado. The rating edge grew even more when evaluating the game when I checked the injury reports, and found that CSU lost two starting defenders in their defensive line.
I then asked myself 5 questions concerning the Colo.-CSU game: Will Colo. run the ball on CSU? The Buffs have all their O-Line back from '09, returning Rbs with decent numbers, and CSU has just lost 2 def. linemen to injury. Yes, they will run. Will Colo. pass the ball on CSU? Yes. The QBs return, as well as top two receivers(plus the expd. O-line) vs. 6 returning def. starters for CSU that was horrible against the pass last year. Will CSU run the ball on Colo? Big losses in the O-line, against a veteran Buff defense, and it's my determination they will not be able to run the ball enough to protect their inexpd. QB. Will CSU pass the ball on COLO.? A new QB that's a freshman, with an inexperienced offensive line, and a receiving corps that's lost its top two receivers. Colo. has an experienced defense, with experienced CBs, so, no, I don't think CSU will have much success passing the ball.
The last question I ask is does either team have a clear intangible advantage? This is a rivalry game, so I would probably give a slight advantage to the team I think is the underdog, and I'd think that would be CSU.
Not knowing the actual line in this game, I try to picture what I feel will happen in this matchup. I think Colo. will run and pass against an injured, but, already weak CSU defense. CSU just doesn't have the experience or talent to keep up with a team that is clearly more experienced and more talented. If CSU gets behind early, I can envision a rout.
I've done the work, and now it's time to put my line on this game, and, remember, right now, I have no idea what the actual line on the game is.
I MAKE COLORADO A 15PT. FAVORITE OVER CSU! I will now look at the opening line on the game... I'm looking...TGS had the opening line at -9.5... If that is anywhere near the present line on the game, Colorado will be a strong, major play. Stay tuned.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)