This will be a special day for me. I have decided to do something revolutionary and invest in every game where my ratings tell me that the actual line in the game is sufficiently different from what I believe the line should be. Let me use one of the games I've handicapped to illustrate what I mean:
In the Northwestern/Minnesota contest, my ratings put the Wildcats at 85.5, and the Golden Gophers at only 61.1. Maybe, one day I'll put in print all the variables that result in a team's rating. Let me write this: Minnesota's rating is one of the lowest in Division 1A. Their sub-par running, and passing game, and the fact they have LESS than one starter back on defense lends much to their low rating. Based on these team ratings, I believe Northwestern should've been a 12-14.5 favorite over Minnesota. They are presently favored by only 5.5. According to my ratings, Northwestern is seriously under-valued, and I will make the Wildcats a 2** play.
This is the first time this year, and the first time in a while, that I've decided to totally trust my ratings, and invest in every game where I believe my ratings are right, and the actual line is wrong. I will not ask you to do the same. Follow my picks, let's see how I do, and, if you decide to go with my selections, let's hope we enjoy a profitable day. Here are my early plays:
UConn Huskies in a 2** play over Vanderbilt
Northwestern Wildcats over Minnesota in a 2** play
Kentucky Wildcats in a 2** play over Mississippi
Kansas Jayhawks over Baylor in a 2** play
Ohio St. Buckeyes in a 2** play over Illinois
Florida St. Seminoles over Virginia in a 2** play
Clemson Tigers in a 2** play over Miami
Added Note: I believe in certain line situations, IT IS worth buying a .5 point. Last night, for example, my line on the A&M/Ok.St. game dropped to +2.5. I took A&M in the game. The 3 point differential in football games is so common, I thought it worthwhile to buy the extra 1/2 point, and make A&M a +3 point underdog in the game. It was a good decision. I got a push in the game, instead of a loss. The commission, or vigorish, moved from 10% to 20%.
I did the same in tomorrow's UConn/Vanderbilt contest. My line had UConn as a -7.5 favorite. I bought the 1/2 point, and made Uconn a -7 point favorite. Again, in certain favorable line situations, I do believe it is worth buying the extra 1/2 point.
Return to collegeedge.blogspot.com throughout the day, and at approximately 1:30p.m., join me at my phone line as well for other possible early selections. My number is: 267-752-edge.
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