My first impressions of last week's college action, with no rehearsals, and no stat studies. ALSO, AN EARLY 3*** PLAY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT!
A&M almost doubled the yardage Ok.St. gained in last Thursday's game, and I somehow only got a push in the game. Aggie QB Johnson threw 4 interceptions in the game. I expect that kind of junk from a freshman QB, not a 3-year starter...I have always thought that programs like Texas, and Florida simply re-load at all positions. It's probably true at all positions, except quarterback. Gilbert of Texas, and, Brantley of Florida, new starters who replaced legends, will be good, eventually, but, for now, they have helped cost their teams a chance at the BCS Championship. I have almost never supported a team with a new QB to win the national championship. It's because new QB's will find a way to lose somewhere along the line...Northwestern should've covered vs. Minny on the road, and didn't. Wiscy lost on the road vs. MSU. OSU was favored on the road vs. Illinois, and didn't cover. PSU went on the road vs. Iowa, and didn't cover. Do you see a pattern here? It's just one week. What I'd like to do this week is check how road favorites, in conference, have done over the last five years. I'll try to give you the results. What's great about this endeavor is you are constantly trying to learn...
Virginia Tech has made its turnaround after a slow start. Another team that has gotten off to a slow start, under the leadership of a normally great coach, is Georgia Tech. They have a nice nucleus of starters back, and, like coach Beamer of V.T., I believe coach Johnson will have his team back on track. The challenge for a handicapper is figuring when that turnaround will occur...My Temple Owls survived a potential let-down game vs. Army, overcoming an early deficit, and won going away. Army is a lot tougher than many realize. Go Owls!!!
I thought Mike Leach, former coach of Texas Tech, was an offensive genius. I was fairly happy when I learned new coach, Tommy Tuberville, was going to retain that T.T., up-tempo offense. After T.T. only score 14 points vs. Texas, and now have lost to ISU, maybe no one could've been expected to succeed one of the greatest offensive minds in college football history(that is not an exaggeration)...Really curious to see the stats from Baylor's 55-7 win over Kansas. I contend the Bears' QB Griffin is one of the most dangerous run/pass threats at his position in college football, and would like to see his stats from that game... QB Pryor continues to throw at a fairly low completion ratio of under 59%. I just don't think that kind of production will survive the Big 10 schedule... My week started with the A&M pick, which resulted in a tough push, and ended with my early, Sunday morning recommendation of the over in the L.T./Hawaii game. My totals line in the game was 62.5. The final score was..... 41-21! I'll tell you this: I hope I didn't lose that total on another missed extra point. Ahhh, I'm glad I was asleep.
THREE STAR PLAY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: UAB vs. UCF
This line should have the home team favored by 21 points. UCF held the very good running back from KSU, Daniel Thomas, to under 80 yards(only 3.7 y.p.c.), and lost to KSU in the last minute of that game, in KSU. They lost to N.C.St., but held the Wolfpack to 134 yards rushing, but, much more impressively, held QB Wilson to a 10 for 30 night, and only 105 yards passing!
UAB has an inexperienced QB at the helm. I just don't see how that new QB will generate anything against UCF's outstanding defense.
UCF doesn't overwhelm you on offense, but they do have a QB in Calabrese who's efficient, and they do have a ground game that will control the game. After all, that running game produced 252 yards rushing against KSU! Needless to say, UAB's program, and defense, is not closely comparable to what UCF faced in both KSU, or N.C.St.
In an early recommendation, take UCF over UAB in a 3*** play. The line is UCF - 12.5, a bargain, and I do believe that line will go up, particularly if the national linemakers know I'm giving it out!!!
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