Too many injuries for the Nits( with the loss of DL Crawford this week, returning starters on defense are now at 4), particularly on defense, and this defense will face a very potent offense with the Darnell Robinson-led Michigan team.
Defensively, Michigan is by no means spectacular, but, the problem for the Nits is they do not have any real threat at the QB position to score with the Wolverines. That would have been the case whether freshman starter Bolden was injured, or, not. Bolden is injured, and I don't think his replacement will produce enough points to stay with Michigan.
MICHIGAN IN A THREE STAR PLAY OVER PSU
Saturday, October 30, 2010
YOUR 3:30P.M. PLAYS FOR OCT. 30TH
GEORGIA IN A TWO STAR PLAY OVER FLORIDA, AND, THE OVER IN THE SAME GAME IS A ONE STAR PLAY.
Friday, October 29, 2010
PART II: SAM'S COLLEGE FOOTBALL COLLAGE - PLUS - W.VA.-UCONN
I want to think Mich. St. is for real. It's always nice to have new blood in the Top 10. But, for the second week in a row, MSU's rush offense was stopped in its tracks . The Spartans need a well balanced offense to offset their "okay" defense, and to stay in the rankings...What did I say(write)about the Syracuse defense? That defense has already made them a player in the Big East with wins over USF, and West Virginia...Texas and Florida are showing you how hard it is to replace a 4-year starter at QB. I'm still surprised Gabbert and Brantley, starters at QB for the 'Horns, and Gators, have performed at less than expectations. Both came into their programs as top 5 recruits at the QB position...
Have you seen the numbers the Baylor offense has produced under spectacular QB Griffin? He's a player, like Chase Clement of Rice, and Joe Webb of UAB, who is having a Heisman-type year, but, will never be considered because of the program he plays for. So, since he will never win the coveted Heisman, take the time to check out Griffin's performances the rest of the year...I think Turner Gill will eventually do a good job at Kansas, but, as his team continues to perform horribly this year, remember the great job the previous coach, Mark, "Jabba The Hut," Mangini did at Lawrence. Mangini left under questionable circumstances last year(was he the villain or the victim?),but his turning around of a program that may have been the worst in the Big 12 was not questionable...
Good job by Houston's coaching staff. After the loss of Heisman cand. Case Keenum, and the second string QB, the third string QB has received enough great coaching to keep the Cougar offense humming...I commented that the two Okla. teams were over-rated, undefeated teams. Both lost last week. Missouri, at 7-0, now assumes the title of Most Overrated Undefeated Team...I thought Nebraska's defense would help make them contenders in the championship race. They gave up 41 points to Ok.St. Forget that notion...The Huskies of Wash. continue to be one of the biggest disappointments of the 2010 season...Is Cal a Jekyl and Hyde team this year? They lose big on the road, they win big at home. It was nice having the Golden Bears last week. Incidentally, they were one of our 8 winners last week, against our 2 losses...What an intriguing prospect it will be watching Auburn's high octane, complicated offense going against 'Bama's young defense. The score in that November game could be 52-50...It hurts me to do this, but, my Top 3: 1)Oregon...2)Auburn...3)Boise St.
WEST VIRGINIA - UCONN:
UConn has RB Todman, but, little else. Their defense has been sub-par, and they are playing their third string QB, after the suspension of Cody Endres, and the demotion of Zach Frazer. The QB play, whether it's Frazer or 3rd stringer, Box, is just not good enough to off-set the more balanced offense West Virginia presents.
What will keep this from being a higher recommendation is coach Edsall's success over the last five years as a home, conference dog(8-2).
I will go with the present condition of that UConn team, with its sub-par defense and QB play, and make a ONE STAR recommendation on West Virginia.
Have you seen the numbers the Baylor offense has produced under spectacular QB Griffin? He's a player, like Chase Clement of Rice, and Joe Webb of UAB, who is having a Heisman-type year, but, will never be considered because of the program he plays for. So, since he will never win the coveted Heisman, take the time to check out Griffin's performances the rest of the year...I think Turner Gill will eventually do a good job at Kansas, but, as his team continues to perform horribly this year, remember the great job the previous coach, Mark, "Jabba The Hut," Mangini did at Lawrence. Mangini left under questionable circumstances last year(was he the villain or the victim?),but his turning around of a program that may have been the worst in the Big 12 was not questionable...
Good job by Houston's coaching staff. After the loss of Heisman cand. Case Keenum, and the second string QB, the third string QB has received enough great coaching to keep the Cougar offense humming...I commented that the two Okla. teams were over-rated, undefeated teams. Both lost last week. Missouri, at 7-0, now assumes the title of Most Overrated Undefeated Team...I thought Nebraska's defense would help make them contenders in the championship race. They gave up 41 points to Ok.St. Forget that notion...The Huskies of Wash. continue to be one of the biggest disappointments of the 2010 season...Is Cal a Jekyl and Hyde team this year? They lose big on the road, they win big at home. It was nice having the Golden Bears last week. Incidentally, they were one of our 8 winners last week, against our 2 losses...What an intriguing prospect it will be watching Auburn's high octane, complicated offense going against 'Bama's young defense. The score in that November game could be 52-50...It hurts me to do this, but, my Top 3: 1)Oregon...2)Auburn...3)Boise St.
WEST VIRGINIA - UCONN:
UConn has RB Todman, but, little else. Their defense has been sub-par, and they are playing their third string QB, after the suspension of Cody Endres, and the demotion of Zach Frazer. The QB play, whether it's Frazer or 3rd stringer, Box, is just not good enough to off-set the more balanced offense West Virginia presents.
What will keep this from being a higher recommendation is coach Edsall's success over the last five years as a home, conference dog(8-2).
I will go with the present condition of that UConn team, with its sub-par defense and QB play, and make a ONE STAR recommendation on West Virginia.
Thursday, October 28, 2010
FLORIDA ST.-N.C.ST.- PLUS - SAM'S COLLEGE FOOTBALL COLLAGE:A MADCAP REVIEW OF LAST WEEK'S COLLEGE FOOTBALL ACTION- PART 1
My first impressions of last week's action: Most impressive part of last week's romp of UCLA by Oregon was how the Ducks shut down the UCLA rush game. Look out if Oregon plays good, consistent defense...One of the challenges of handicapping the season is trying to figure which teams are ascending and which are declining. Louisville and UConn are examples of each. Was Louisville's romp of the Huskies a clear indication of a team hitting its stride, or, did they simply play a team that has no mo-jo, a-la UConn... I was very happy to see North Carolina get busted up in the second half of their loss to Miami. I just want to see the TarHeels go away...Question: is the option best run by the service academies, who bring a special discipline that offense needs to succeed? Georgia Tech's version is hitting some snags this year, and, I wonder if the better athletes who run that offense for the Yellow Jackets, feel more restricted by the rush-oriented aspects of the option? Just wonderin'...Surprise team of the year may be the East Carolina Pirates. I believe they only have 8 starters back from last year's team(only 3 back on defense), and yet, they just beat N.C.St. and have dominated their CUSA competitors. Great jobs by new coach, Mcneil, who came from Texas Tech, and new QB, Dominique Davis... More Collage tomorrow night.
Yes, I fear N.C.St. as an ESPN, Thursday night home dog, but, FSU has the better team and is worthy of my recommendation:
FSU IN A ONE STAR PLAY OVER N.C.ST.
Yes, I fear N.C.St. as an ESPN, Thursday night home dog, but, FSU has the better team and is worthy of my recommendation:
FSU IN A ONE STAR PLAY OVER N.C.ST.
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
RICH'S BASEBALL PICKS FOR RANGERS-GIANTS
IN SERIES: GIANTS
IN TONIGHT'S, WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 27TH, 2010 MATCHUP: GIANTS AND THE OVER
N.B.:WE HAD A WINNING DAY YESTERDAY WITH DAN'S PHILLY PARK PICKS. NICE JOB, DAN!
IN TONIGHT'S, WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 27TH, 2010 MATCHUP: GIANTS AND THE OVER
N.B.:WE HAD A WINNING DAY YESTERDAY WITH DAN'S PHILLY PARK PICKS. NICE JOB, DAN!
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
HANDICAPPING AND GAMBLING INSIGHTS-PLUS-LaTECH-BOISE ST.
Each week I log almost all the stats from the previous week's games in my 200 page, 5-subject composition book. I enjoy writing out all the stats, because it gives me an immediate feel for how well a team is playing. I immediately get a feel for how well a team is rushing the ball, or playing pass defense, or if a coach's defense is working.
I started handicapping college football in a serious manner in 1976. I have every one of those composition books in my college football library: from 1976 to the present. I have always said that if my house were ever in danger, after getting my family to safety, I'd go into a burning house for my football books!
With that as a background, even I was amazed last week when I approached the logging of my college stats in a different manner . Usually, I handicap the games chronologically. I start with the 12:00p.m. games and work my way through the schedule. I log the stats at the same time I handicap each game. So, normally, I log the stats, work the game, decide if a game is worthy of a recommendation, and then move on to the next game on the schedule.
Last week, I decided to try something different. I started logging the games on the Sunday right after the games ended on Saturday, with no interest in handicapping each game I was logging, but, simply trying to get the logging of the games done early. On Wednesday, I started handicapping the scheduled games for the upcoming week, but, with the logging of the stats already completed. It was tremendously more relaxing. I had a very good week. It's just one week's results, so I won't jump to any conclusions. But, it does illustrate that no matter how long you've been doing something, it's never too late to learn, or, try something new. I've said( or wrote) this before: one of the things that makes handicapping so much fun, and challenging is the necessity to be willing to change or adjust your techniques, and that includes something you've been doing the same for 34+years!
LaTech has played two pretty decent games in a row vs. Utah St. and Idaho, and, believe it, or not, I believe it helped make this line lower than it should be. LaTech is stepping up in very serious class tonight against a Boise St. team that needs as many beauty points as necessary to stay in BCS contention, and is 13-7 the last five years as an in-conference, home favorite.
Against the decent defenses of A&M and So.MIss, LaT only gained 61, and 47 yards on the ground. Expect similar results tonight against a very good Boise defense.
LaTech has played rotten defense to date. A bad track record when facing one of the most potent, and experienced, offenses in the country, and doing so on that Bronco Blue Carpet!
ONE STAR PLAY ON BOISE ST. OVER LaTECH
I started handicapping college football in a serious manner in 1976. I have every one of those composition books in my college football library: from 1976 to the present. I have always said that if my house were ever in danger, after getting my family to safety, I'd go into a burning house for my football books!
With that as a background, even I was amazed last week when I approached the logging of my college stats in a different manner . Usually, I handicap the games chronologically. I start with the 12:00p.m. games and work my way through the schedule. I log the stats at the same time I handicap each game. So, normally, I log the stats, work the game, decide if a game is worthy of a recommendation, and then move on to the next game on the schedule.
Last week, I decided to try something different. I started logging the games on the Sunday right after the games ended on Saturday, with no interest in handicapping each game I was logging, but, simply trying to get the logging of the games done early. On Wednesday, I started handicapping the scheduled games for the upcoming week, but, with the logging of the stats already completed. It was tremendously more relaxing. I had a very good week. It's just one week's results, so I won't jump to any conclusions. But, it does illustrate that no matter how long you've been doing something, it's never too late to learn, or, try something new. I've said( or wrote) this before: one of the things that makes handicapping so much fun, and challenging is the necessity to be willing to change or adjust your techniques, and that includes something you've been doing the same for 34+years!
LaTech has played two pretty decent games in a row vs. Utah St. and Idaho, and, believe it, or not, I believe it helped make this line lower than it should be. LaTech is stepping up in very serious class tonight against a Boise St. team that needs as many beauty points as necessary to stay in BCS contention, and is 13-7 the last five years as an in-conference, home favorite.
Against the decent defenses of A&M and So.MIss, LaT only gained 61, and 47 yards on the ground. Expect similar results tonight against a very good Boise defense.
LaTech has played rotten defense to date. A bad track record when facing one of the most potent, and experienced, offenses in the country, and doing so on that Bronco Blue Carpet!
ONE STAR PLAY ON BOISE ST. OVER LaTECH
DAN'S TUESDAY PICKS FROM PHILLY PARK:COMPLIMENTS OF THE DAN, AND THE COLLEGE EDGE
Dan's selections for Tuesday, October 26th from Philly Park. Dan has worked on his "speed system" for years. I hope you enjoy his picks:
Race 1: 5-3-1-9
Race 2: 7-6-2-4
Race 3: 3-5-7-6
Race 4: 5-4-1-3
Race 5: NO SELECTIONS
Race 6: 7-1-3
Race 7: 8-6-9-7
Race 8: 7-2-4-6
Race 9: 7-6-4-5
Race 10: 10-3-8-9
Stay tuned for LaTech-Boise St. synopsis, handicapping, as well as gambling insights in tonight's article, which will be released at approximately 1/2 hour prior to the start of the LaTech-Boise St. contest. Now, let me get moving: I have to get Dan's picks in!
Race 1: 5-3-1-9
Race 2: 7-6-2-4
Race 3: 3-5-7-6
Race 4: 5-4-1-3
Race 5: NO SELECTIONS
Race 6: 7-1-3
Race 7: 8-6-9-7
Race 8: 7-2-4-6
Race 9: 7-6-4-5
Race 10: 10-3-8-9
Stay tuned for LaTech-Boise St. synopsis, handicapping, as well as gambling insights in tonight's article, which will be released at approximately 1/2 hour prior to the start of the LaTech-Boise St. contest. Now, let me get moving: I have to get Dan's picks in!
Saturday, October 23, 2010
FINAL PLAY OF THE DAY:AF/TCU
TCU IS AN AMAZING 16-3 AS A HOME FAVORITE IN CONFERENCE UNDER COACH PATTERSON THE LAST FIVE YEARS.
The key factor in this game is the fact I believe TCU has the ability to take advantage of Air Force's most glaring weakness on an otherwise good defense:the Falcon rush defense. TCU out-sizes the Air Force interior, and can avoid the many blitz schemes the Falcons will employ, by simply overpowering Air Force on the ground.
TCU IN A ONE STAR PLAY
RICH'S PICKS IN THE GIANTS-PHILLIES CONTEST:
THE PHILLIES AND THE OVER!
The key factor in this game is the fact I believe TCU has the ability to take advantage of Air Force's most glaring weakness on an otherwise good defense:the Falcon rush defense. TCU out-sizes the Air Force interior, and can avoid the many blitz schemes the Falcons will employ, by simply overpowering Air Force on the ground.
TCU IN A ONE STAR PLAY
RICH'S PICKS IN THE GIANTS-PHILLIES CONTEST:
THE PHILLIES AND THE OVER!
YOUR 7:00P.M. PLAYS FOR OCTOBER 23rd
Alabama had its let-down game after their tough loss to South Carolina last week vs. Mississippi. Bama will score rather easily on the Volunteers, and I just don't see how the very inexperienced offense of Tennessee will cause any problems for the young, but, still proficient Tide defense. The Vol offense just is not able to take advantage of that young Bama defense.
TWO STAR PLAY ON ALABAMA.
STAY TUNED FOR OUR 8:00P.M. PLAYS IN BOTH COLLEGE FOOTBALL AND BASEBALL!
MISS. ST. IN A ONE STAR PLAY OVER UAB(yes, I'm afraid of a Bulldog letdown after their big win over Florida,BUT, UAB stepping WAY UP in class).
TWO STAR PLAY ON ALABAMA.
STAY TUNED FOR OUR 8:00P.M. PLAYS IN BOTH COLLEGE FOOTBALL AND BASEBALL!
MISS. ST. IN A ONE STAR PLAY OVER UAB(yes, I'm afraid of a Bulldog letdown after their big win over Florida,BUT, UAB stepping WAY UP in class).
YOUR 3:30P.M. PLAYS FOR OCT. 23rd
TWO STAR PLAYS ON NEBRASKA AND CALIFORNIA
ONE STAR PLAYS ON WISCONSIN AND THE OVER IN THE SAME GAME
I lean to LSU, but, do not like the line dropping like it is, so, I'll just watch.
STAY TUNED THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR MORE PICKS
ONE STAR PLAYS ON WISCONSIN AND THE OVER IN THE SAME GAME
I lean to LSU, but, do not like the line dropping like it is, so, I'll just watch.
STAY TUNED THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR MORE PICKS
Friday, October 22, 2010
EARLY RELEASE INFORMATION
If I don't get back in time to post my releases here for the 12:00p.m., and slightly later, starts, check my phone line for the early releases. Reminder: the number is 267-752-edge!
USF-CINCY
This contest is very similar to last night's game in that the home team has the ability to score, and the visitors simply do not have the offense to keep up.
QB Collaros of Cincy is on fire, and is, by far, the best QB on the field. Cincy's running game is also running on full cylinders as Cincy's Pead has averaged 165 rushing in his last three starts.
CINCY IN A ONE STAR PLAY( line has moved too much, and will be satisfied with a one star recommendation).
QB Collaros of Cincy is on fire, and is, by far, the best QB on the field. Cincy's running game is also running on full cylinders as Cincy's Pead has averaged 165 rushing in his last three starts.
CINCY IN A ONE STAR PLAY( line has moved too much, and will be satisfied with a one star recommendation).
Thursday, October 21, 2010
UCLA-OREGON PLUS READ "SAM'S COLLEGE FOOTBALL COLLAGE BELOW
Did everyone forget UCLA's thumping of Texas a couple of weeks back by the unlikely score of 34-12? UCLA did it with a dominant rush offense(which now features the Pistol-like offense that Nevada now runs), and a very good pass defense. I'd also like to add that another reason they were able to beat Texas was because UCLA has the athletes to compete with the Texas' of the world.
Oregon has two potential weakness in my opinion: a young quarterback, and a sub-par rush defense. If UCLA can avoid getting down early, like they did in the Cal loss(7-35), and render their rush offense less formidable, I think the Bruin athletes will be able to run the ball on the Duck defense, and the Bruin defense will have some success limiting Oregon's pass offense. Again, if Ucla gets down early, The Bruins will be in trouble. They are almost no threat passing the ball. We all know what would happen if UCLA keeps giving the ball up too quickly to Oregon's vaunted offense: they'll get smoked.
I will trust UCLA's rush offense, and the highly recruited athletes that the Bruins still get to help get us the cover tonight.
UCLA IN A TWO STAR PLAY
IN BASEBALL, RICH LIKES THE PHILLIES AND THE UNDER IN THE SAME GAME IF THE OVER/UNDER LINE GETS TO 6.
Oregon has two potential weakness in my opinion: a young quarterback, and a sub-par rush defense. If UCLA can avoid getting down early, like they did in the Cal loss(7-35), and render their rush offense less formidable, I think the Bruin athletes will be able to run the ball on the Duck defense, and the Bruin defense will have some success limiting Oregon's pass offense. Again, if Ucla gets down early, The Bruins will be in trouble. They are almost no threat passing the ball. We all know what would happen if UCLA keeps giving the ball up too quickly to Oregon's vaunted offense: they'll get smoked.
I will trust UCLA's rush offense, and the highly recruited athletes that the Bruins still get to help get us the cover tonight.
UCLA IN A TWO STAR PLAY
IN BASEBALL, RICH LIKES THE PHILLIES AND THE UNDER IN THE SAME GAME IF THE OVER/UNDER LINE GETS TO 6.
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
SAM'S COLLEGE FOOTBALL COLLAGE:A MADCAP REVIEW OF LAST WEEK'S COLLEGE FOOTBALL ACTION
I'm looking at last week's schedule and will give my first impressions, no rehearsals, no stat reviews:I saw announcers making a lot of excuses for QB Daniels of USF. He was over-rated last year. He stinks this year...QB Collaros of Cincy was only the 127th rated QB coming out of high school. He had a nice year last year under coach Brian Kelly, and, despite the change of coaches to Butch Jones, he may be having an even better year this year. I believe he has only two interceptions, and 14 Tds...I'm not sure how many agree with me, but, I believe Wannstedt of Pitt is doing a nice job with his program. His teams are almost always tough, in that Steel City image, and they are tough again this year. Freshman QB Sunseri has had a couple of good games consecutively. His continued improvement will make the Panthers tough the rest of the way...Sad story concerning the Rutgers Lb who suffered the spinal injury in his team's win over Army. My prayers are with him...
I think Michigan St. is still the real deal, but, their stats in the Illinois win were surprisingly weak. They have two good running backs, and still ran for under 100 yards vs. the Illini. You know, maybe Zook's Illinois squad is better than I'm giving them credit for...I figured on Urban Meyer's assistants Dan Mullen of Miss.St. and Charlie Strong of Louisville to do good jobs at their respective programs. I never figured on Mullen beating Meyer this soon. Strong had a nice core of returning starters, but, regardless, he seems to have already changed the culture at Louisville...
I think Dan Hawkins did a great job at Boise St. He has done a rotten job at Colorado. In my opinion, his downfall can be traced to nepotism. His son, Cody, a quarterback, tranferred to Colorado to be with his dad. He was declared the starter early on by his dad, and things haven't been good since. It reminds of a string of years that JoePa was having trouble with his Penn St. program. His offensive coordinator was his son, Jay Paterno. When he demoted his son, his team, and program, improved...One of the more shocking scores of last weekend was the romp of Cal by USC. USC had lost two games in a row. They are not eligible for a bowl game this year, and I thought when the Trojans lost their chance at a perfect season, their incentives to play hard were eliminated. Man, was I wrong...
QB Gilbert of Texas only went 4 for 16 passing the ball vs. Nebraska, but, ran the ball for over 80 yards. Who knew???Is the big collapse happening again at Michigan? I hope not. If it happens again, Rodriguez may not survive. I still think he'll do a good job, if they leave him alone...I couldn't find an ACC team to put in my Top 10, but, It looks like Virginia Tech ia making its annual push as an ACC front-runner. As usual, Frank Beamer has found a way to rebound from a tough start...I can't figure why Texas Tech has been so inconsistent, and why Ok.St. has continued to win. How the heck are they 6-0? The two Oklahoma teams are vastly playing over their undefeated heads... Did I not write here that I had doubts Ohio St could win the national championship with a QB in Pryor who had too may games throwing the ball at a less than 60% proficiency? He went 14 for 28 vs. Wiscy... The last game of last Saturday's schedule brought two surprises:that Hawaii could play enough defense to stay close to Nevada, (let alone win); that both teams didn't total twice as many points as the actual score of the game(27-21). If I didn't mentally and physically crash on Saturday night, I think I would have given out the over in that game, even if the line had been 85! Thank God my body said to me:ENOUGH!
Stay tuned during the day on Thursday, Oct.21st, for my synopsis of the UCLA/ Oregon game, and Rich's Major League Baseball selections.
I think Michigan St. is still the real deal, but, their stats in the Illinois win were surprisingly weak. They have two good running backs, and still ran for under 100 yards vs. the Illini. You know, maybe Zook's Illinois squad is better than I'm giving them credit for...I figured on Urban Meyer's assistants Dan Mullen of Miss.St. and Charlie Strong of Louisville to do good jobs at their respective programs. I never figured on Mullen beating Meyer this soon. Strong had a nice core of returning starters, but, regardless, he seems to have already changed the culture at Louisville...
I think Dan Hawkins did a great job at Boise St. He has done a rotten job at Colorado. In my opinion, his downfall can be traced to nepotism. His son, Cody, a quarterback, tranferred to Colorado to be with his dad. He was declared the starter early on by his dad, and things haven't been good since. It reminds of a string of years that JoePa was having trouble with his Penn St. program. His offensive coordinator was his son, Jay Paterno. When he demoted his son, his team, and program, improved...One of the more shocking scores of last weekend was the romp of Cal by USC. USC had lost two games in a row. They are not eligible for a bowl game this year, and I thought when the Trojans lost their chance at a perfect season, their incentives to play hard were eliminated. Man, was I wrong...
QB Gilbert of Texas only went 4 for 16 passing the ball vs. Nebraska, but, ran the ball for over 80 yards. Who knew???Is the big collapse happening again at Michigan? I hope not. If it happens again, Rodriguez may not survive. I still think he'll do a good job, if they leave him alone...I couldn't find an ACC team to put in my Top 10, but, It looks like Virginia Tech ia making its annual push as an ACC front-runner. As usual, Frank Beamer has found a way to rebound from a tough start...I can't figure why Texas Tech has been so inconsistent, and why Ok.St. has continued to win. How the heck are they 6-0? The two Oklahoma teams are vastly playing over their undefeated heads... Did I not write here that I had doubts Ohio St could win the national championship with a QB in Pryor who had too may games throwing the ball at a less than 60% proficiency? He went 14 for 28 vs. Wiscy... The last game of last Saturday's schedule brought two surprises:that Hawaii could play enough defense to stay close to Nevada, (let alone win); that both teams didn't total twice as many points as the actual score of the game(27-21). If I didn't mentally and physically crash on Saturday night, I think I would have given out the over in that game, even if the line had been 85! Thank God my body said to me:ENOUGH!
Stay tuned during the day on Thursday, Oct.21st, for my synopsis of the UCLA/ Oregon game, and Rich's Major League Baseball selections.
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
RICH'S BASEBALL PICKS FOR RANGERS-YANKS
Take the Yankees and the over in tonight's Rangers-Yanks contest.
What do you think of my College Football Top 10? Let me know.
What do you think of my College Football Top 10? Let me know.
Monday, October 18, 2010
HERE'S MY COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOP 10(OR, THE HECK WITH THE BCS TOP 10!)
1)Boise St: They can beat every team 2 thru 9. Imaginative offense...Tough defense that has stopped every tough rush offense in the last two years
2)Oregon: I think first-year starter at QB(Thomas) will eventually cost Ducks, but, #2 for now.
3)Alabama: If Crimson Tide's young defense can figure out how to stop QB Newton and the Auburn vaunted offense, it should be 'Bama-Boise ST. in BCS Championship game.
4)TCU: Very good offense. Their defense, under Gary Patterson, always gets better as the year goes on. Utah game on road, Nov. 6th, will determine if Frogs stay in contention.
5)LSU: I don't think their offense will keep them in the picture, but, they have very good defense, and that SEC pedigree, so they get #5, for now.
6)Oklahoma: I think they are the worst of the remaining unbeatens, with no chance to win the BCS. But, they do have great athletes, and they are undefeated, so I'll give them some credit.
7)Ohio St: If Tressel would've showed more confidence in Pryor Saturday evening, and let him throw the ball in key situations, the results could've been different vs. Wiscy. Still very good team
8)Nebraska: Their QBs scare me, but their defense is very good. They held Texas to 4 for 16 in pass completions.
9)Auburn:This #9 spot may last just this week, as they face LSU Saturday. Very good offense under QB Newton. That defense will cost them.
10)Iowa: I'll always take a shot with a good defense, a decent running game, and an experienced QB.
11)Utah: They only have 4 starters back on defense, and, they haven't played anyone yet who can take advantage of that deficiency. Play Air Force, TCU and Notre Dame on consecutive weekends. Don't think they'll survive that stretch.
12)Darn North Carolina: I didn't even want to mention them here, but, if those darn kids(and agents) didn't mess everything up, my long-shot TarHells coulda been contenders.
13)Temple Owls: How can they be stopped with new QB Gerardi at the helm!
Come on, and give me your opinions. I'd love to tell you how wrong you are!
2)Oregon: I think first-year starter at QB(Thomas) will eventually cost Ducks, but, #2 for now.
3)Alabama: If Crimson Tide's young defense can figure out how to stop QB Newton and the Auburn vaunted offense, it should be 'Bama-Boise ST. in BCS Championship game.
4)TCU: Very good offense. Their defense, under Gary Patterson, always gets better as the year goes on. Utah game on road, Nov. 6th, will determine if Frogs stay in contention.
5)LSU: I don't think their offense will keep them in the picture, but, they have very good defense, and that SEC pedigree, so they get #5, for now.
6)Oklahoma: I think they are the worst of the remaining unbeatens, with no chance to win the BCS. But, they do have great athletes, and they are undefeated, so I'll give them some credit.
7)Ohio St: If Tressel would've showed more confidence in Pryor Saturday evening, and let him throw the ball in key situations, the results could've been different vs. Wiscy. Still very good team
8)Nebraska: Their QBs scare me, but their defense is very good. They held Texas to 4 for 16 in pass completions.
9)Auburn:This #9 spot may last just this week, as they face LSU Saturday. Very good offense under QB Newton. That defense will cost them.
10)Iowa: I'll always take a shot with a good defense, a decent running game, and an experienced QB.
11)Utah: They only have 4 starters back on defense, and, they haven't played anyone yet who can take advantage of that deficiency. Play Air Force, TCU and Notre Dame on consecutive weekends. Don't think they'll survive that stretch.
12)Darn North Carolina: I didn't even want to mention them here, but, if those darn kids(and agents) didn't mess everything up, my long-shot TarHells coulda been contenders.
13)Temple Owls: How can they be stopped with new QB Gerardi at the helm!
Come on, and give me your opinions. I'd love to tell you how wrong you are!
Saturday, October 16, 2010
TWO STAR PLAY:OHIO ST.-WISCONSIN: PLUS RICH'S SELECTIONS IN THE GIANTS-PHILLIES CONTEST
My recommendation on OSU/Wiscy coming, but, first, I'd like your opinion on the following question: If you start a college football day at 5-1, do you stop right there, and collect your winnings for the day, or, do you continue on with your regular schedule of plays, and hope to build on your good start? Now, on to tonight's 7:15p.m. contest.
This game is very similar to the Ala-South Carolina game. The team hoping for the upset is home, but, to me that's where the similarity ends. Where South Carolina was the better defensively, in this game the better defense belongs to the visitors, Ohio St. Because of that circumstance, OSU should be able to run and pass on the Badgers, but, I don't see the Badgers being as successful on the offensive side of the ball. Another great stat is Tressel's record as a road favorite in conference:14-5!!!
What keeps this from being a higher recommendation are two facts:Wisconsin is playing home in a tough venue; the Badgers have experience at the QB position.
OSU in a TWO STAR RECOMMENDATION OVER WISCY
I will work on the Nevada-Hawaii contest. Return here all the way up to 11:25p.m. for possible plays in the game.
IN BASEBALL, RICH RECOMMENDS THE GIANTS AND THE OVER
This game is very similar to the Ala-South Carolina game. The team hoping for the upset is home, but, to me that's where the similarity ends. Where South Carolina was the better defensively, in this game the better defense belongs to the visitors, Ohio St. Because of that circumstance, OSU should be able to run and pass on the Badgers, but, I don't see the Badgers being as successful on the offensive side of the ball. Another great stat is Tressel's record as a road favorite in conference:14-5!!!
What keeps this from being a higher recommendation are two facts:Wisconsin is playing home in a tough venue; the Badgers have experience at the QB position.
OSU in a TWO STAR RECOMMENDATION OVER WISCY
I will work on the Nevada-Hawaii contest. Return here all the way up to 11:25p.m. for possible plays in the game.
IN BASEBALL, RICH RECOMMENDS THE GIANTS AND THE OVER
3:30 RELEASES-PLUS-A QUESTION FOR YOU
Texas Tech/Ok.St coming up,but, first, a question I'd like your comment on: If you start the day 5-1, would you stop right there, like my buddy Mark suggests, and count your winnings,OR, keep right on going with your picks, like my buddy Bobby suggests? My response will come at the end of the night, But, what is your opinion?
THREE STAR PLAY ON TEXAS TECH OVER OKLAHOMA ST.
I waited for this opportunity with the A&M-OkSt. game, but, I got a lucky push because A&M couldn't help turning the ball over. OkSt. finally goes on the road this season, and I still believe OkSt. is one of the most over-rated teams in the country. They should not be able to keep up with T.T.'s scoring.
ONE STAR PLAY ON MISSISSIPPI OVER bAMA
Going with the very sound theory that you go against a team that's just lost their first game. Let-down in effect.
THREE STAR PLAY ON TEXAS TECH OVER OKLAHOMA ST.
I waited for this opportunity with the A&M-OkSt. game, but, I got a lucky push because A&M couldn't help turning the ball over. OkSt. finally goes on the road this season, and I still believe OkSt. is one of the most over-rated teams in the country. They should not be able to keep up with T.T.'s scoring.
ONE STAR PLAY ON MISSISSIPPI OVER bAMA
Going with the very sound theory that you go against a team that's just lost their first game. Let-down in effect.
SAM'S COLLEGE FOOTBALL COLLAGE: A madcap review of last week's college football action,PLUS, OUR 12:00P.M. RELEASES
My first impressions from last week's games. I like to look at last week's results and write the first thoughts that come to my mind. Let's get it on:
Nebraska's freshman QB Martinez goes on the road to smoke KSU, and one of my favorite coaches of all time, Bill Snyder. As good as Martinez has played, he's a freshman, and a freshman starter at QB will eventually find a way to blow a game. It's my job to figure out when(Texas?)...Last week's matchup between Uconn-Rutgers showcased two of the best coaches in all of college football. Do all of you realize that Edsall of UConn has brought respect to a program that was almost non-existent when he first got there 12 years ago? Coach Schiano of Rutgers has also brought great respect to a program that was every bit as bad as Temple was when both were members of the Big East. I give each a tremendous of credit for sticking with their respective schools. Each would be successful at almost any program in the NCAA...
MSU Spartans have really developed a balanced offense under coach Dantonio. They have two runners capable of rushing for 100 yards in a game( Baker and Bell), and they've been getting outstanding QBing from Cousins. I have normally viewed MSU as a phony team in the past. They might be the real deal...ISU beats Texas Tech one week, then comes back the next week and gives up 60+ points to Utah. What the heck is going on there???
The Ole Ball Coach, Spurrier of South Carolina, figured out a game plan to take advantage of the Crimson Tide's inexperienced returning defense(only 2 returning starters). I forget sometimes that Spurrier might still be the same offensive genius who made a winning team out of the Duke Blue Devils(are you kiddin' me?), and the dominant Florida Gators. The only problem with the Gamecocks big win over Alabama? I DIDN'T TAKE THE GAMECOCKS...Once upon a time, coach Pat Hill of Fresno had one of the best ATS(against the spread) in college football. It is absolutely HARD TO BELIEVE that in his team's last 21 games, Hill is an amazing 4-17 ATS!
SATURDAY'S EARLY, 12:00P.M. PLAYS:
Missouri finally goes on the road for the first time this year. They face Texas A&M. Believe it, or not, A&M has played some pretty good defense this year, and I think they'll do well in their first Big 12 home game against a poor Missou rush offense ,and a Tiger passing offense that features a banged-up QB in Gabbert. A&M also has the offense to score on the banged-up Missou defense. TWO STAR PLAY ON TEXAS A&M.
I think the Pitt-Syracuse game will end up very much like the Cincy-Louisville game did tonight. Syracuse is an up-and-coming team. They played well last week, defensively, in their win over USF. I just don't think they're ready to play consistently on a weekly basis. They've played a much weaker schedule than Pitt(Akron, Maine, Colgate), and played horribly in the toughest game they had this year, a 21-40 loss to Washington. Pitt has played Utah, Miami, and Notre Dame. With the exception of their pass defense vs. the Hurricanes, they've played pretty good defense overall. I don't think Syracuse will run the ball vs. the Panthers. I know they will not be able to pass the ball on Pitt. Conversely, Pitt has two good running backs in Lewis and Graham(they'll do some damage against the Orange defense), and, QB Sunseri has shown improvement since his poor showing vs. Miami,Fla.(27 for 39 for 272 yards at Notre Dame).
THREE STAR PLAY ON PITT OVER SYRACUSE
ONE STAR PLAY ON MICHIGAN STATE OVER ILLINOIS: Both teams run the ball well. The Spartans have the better QB in Cousins, and the home field. MSU is the real deal!
Return tomorrow throughout the day for my college recommendations.
Nebraska's freshman QB Martinez goes on the road to smoke KSU, and one of my favorite coaches of all time, Bill Snyder. As good as Martinez has played, he's a freshman, and a freshman starter at QB will eventually find a way to blow a game. It's my job to figure out when(Texas?)...Last week's matchup between Uconn-Rutgers showcased two of the best coaches in all of college football. Do all of you realize that Edsall of UConn has brought respect to a program that was almost non-existent when he first got there 12 years ago? Coach Schiano of Rutgers has also brought great respect to a program that was every bit as bad as Temple was when both were members of the Big East. I give each a tremendous of credit for sticking with their respective schools. Each would be successful at almost any program in the NCAA...
MSU Spartans have really developed a balanced offense under coach Dantonio. They have two runners capable of rushing for 100 yards in a game( Baker and Bell), and they've been getting outstanding QBing from Cousins. I have normally viewed MSU as a phony team in the past. They might be the real deal...ISU beats Texas Tech one week, then comes back the next week and gives up 60+ points to Utah. What the heck is going on there???
The Ole Ball Coach, Spurrier of South Carolina, figured out a game plan to take advantage of the Crimson Tide's inexperienced returning defense(only 2 returning starters). I forget sometimes that Spurrier might still be the same offensive genius who made a winning team out of the Duke Blue Devils(are you kiddin' me?), and the dominant Florida Gators. The only problem with the Gamecocks big win over Alabama? I DIDN'T TAKE THE GAMECOCKS...Once upon a time, coach Pat Hill of Fresno had one of the best ATS(against the spread) in college football. It is absolutely HARD TO BELIEVE that in his team's last 21 games, Hill is an amazing 4-17 ATS!
SATURDAY'S EARLY, 12:00P.M. PLAYS:
Missouri finally goes on the road for the first time this year. They face Texas A&M. Believe it, or not, A&M has played some pretty good defense this year, and I think they'll do well in their first Big 12 home game against a poor Missou rush offense ,and a Tiger passing offense that features a banged-up QB in Gabbert. A&M also has the offense to score on the banged-up Missou defense. TWO STAR PLAY ON TEXAS A&M.
I think the Pitt-Syracuse game will end up very much like the Cincy-Louisville game did tonight. Syracuse is an up-and-coming team. They played well last week, defensively, in their win over USF. I just don't think they're ready to play consistently on a weekly basis. They've played a much weaker schedule than Pitt(Akron, Maine, Colgate), and played horribly in the toughest game they had this year, a 21-40 loss to Washington. Pitt has played Utah, Miami, and Notre Dame. With the exception of their pass defense vs. the Hurricanes, they've played pretty good defense overall. I don't think Syracuse will run the ball vs. the Panthers. I know they will not be able to pass the ball on Pitt. Conversely, Pitt has two good running backs in Lewis and Graham(they'll do some damage against the Orange defense), and, QB Sunseri has shown improvement since his poor showing vs. Miami,Fla.(27 for 39 for 272 yards at Notre Dame).
THREE STAR PLAY ON PITT OVER SYRACUSE
ONE STAR PLAY ON MICHIGAN STATE OVER ILLINOIS: Both teams run the ball well. The Spartans have the better QB in Cousins, and the home field. MSU is the real deal!
Return tomorrow throughout the day for my college recommendations.
Friday, October 15, 2010
CINCY AT LOUISVILLE
For new visitors to our new blog address, scroll down a couple articles to our re-introduction of this endeavor we call, The College Edge. Just a quick note: I usually release my games on Saturdays during key time segments. On Friday night, I release the 12:00p.m. games; I try to keep you posted on when to check in throughout the rest of the day, but, essentially, I may release at any posted starting time, so stay aware; the key start times are 3:30p.m., 7:00p.m., 7:30p.m.,8:00p.m., and later. In other words, be ready at any time for a release. I literally work on some games right up until game-time. Thanks for visiting us, and now, on to tonight's Cincy-Louisville matchup.
Cincy's QB Collaros has an incredible early season TD/INT ratio of 11-1! The Bearcat offense has also established a pretty awesome running game with RB Pead having gained 169(vs.Okla!) and 197 in his last two games. Cincy's done so against a stronger schedule than Louisville's faced. Louisville is turning in the right direction under coach Charlie Strong, but the Cardinals two inflated wins over Ark.St and Memphis have kept this line lower than I think it should have been.
CINCY IN A TWO STAR PLAY OVER LOUISVILLE, AND, A ONE STAR PLAY ON THE OVER IN THE SAME.
See you tonight with the release of our 12:00p.m., Saturday, October 16th plays. I'M PUMPED!
Cincy's QB Collaros has an incredible early season TD/INT ratio of 11-1! The Bearcat offense has also established a pretty awesome running game with RB Pead having gained 169(vs.Okla!) and 197 in his last two games. Cincy's done so against a stronger schedule than Louisville's faced. Louisville is turning in the right direction under coach Charlie Strong, but the Cardinals two inflated wins over Ark.St and Memphis have kept this line lower than I think it should have been.
CINCY IN A TWO STAR PLAY OVER LOUISVILLE, AND, A ONE STAR PLAY ON THE OVER IN THE SAME.
See you tonight with the release of our 12:00p.m., Saturday, October 16th plays. I'M PUMPED!
Thursday, October 14, 2010
OUR PLAYS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
KSU's Wildcats have a nice running game and a good running back in Thomas, a 1000-yard rusher in 2009. The last two games that running game has been hindered by a football fact of life: they played two tremendous defenses in Nebraska and UCF.
Tonight KSU, and the most dangerous offensive weapon on the field, the aforementioned RB Thomas, go against a Kansas defense which hasn't held any team under 3.7 y.p.c., and that 3.7 y.p.c. were gotten by a horrible New Mexico St. running game.
I don't think Kansas has any weapons to compete with Thomas offensively, either rushing, or, passing.
TWO STAR PLAY on one of my favorite coaches of all time, Bill Snyder of KSU, and the best player on the field tonight, Daniel Thomas.
TWO ONE STAR PLAYS ON USF, AND THE OVER IN THE USF/WEST VIRGINIA CONTEST
This is a recommendation on USF coach Skip Holtz, who was terrific in this situation with East Carolina, going 7-2 ATS as a road dog. Conversely, Coach Stewart of the Mountaineers has been a horrible 3-8 as a home favorite entering 2010.
Lots of starters back on offense for both teams, so a small recommendation on the over a nice little play.
New visitors: Please read article right below this one. It's an introduction to the College Edge.
Tonight KSU, and the most dangerous offensive weapon on the field, the aforementioned RB Thomas, go against a Kansas defense which hasn't held any team under 3.7 y.p.c., and that 3.7 y.p.c. were gotten by a horrible New Mexico St. running game.
I don't think Kansas has any weapons to compete with Thomas offensively, either rushing, or, passing.
TWO STAR PLAY on one of my favorite coaches of all time, Bill Snyder of KSU, and the best player on the field tonight, Daniel Thomas.
TWO ONE STAR PLAYS ON USF, AND THE OVER IN THE USF/WEST VIRGINIA CONTEST
This is a recommendation on USF coach Skip Holtz, who was terrific in this situation with East Carolina, going 7-2 ATS as a road dog. Conversely, Coach Stewart of the Mountaineers has been a horrible 3-8 as a home favorite entering 2010.
Lots of starters back on offense for both teams, so a small recommendation on the over a nice little play.
New visitors: Please read article right below this one. It's an introduction to the College Edge.
KSU-KANSAS...AND...USF-WEST VIRGINIA
I'm having a little trouble with my computer tonight. If there are no releases on my blog on the KSU-Kansas, and, USF-West Virginia games at 7:25p.m., call my phone line for the releases at 267-752-3343.
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
WELCOME,NEW READERS,TO THE COLLEGE EDGE
We took out some ads this week to publicize our recent addition to the College Edge, collegeedge.blogspot.com. So, allow us to introduce ourselves to all of you who may be visiting the College Edge for the first time. First of all, Thanks for Coming!
You can read about our philosophies at our web-site, http://www.college-edge.com/. Among the things you will read about are the overwhelming importance of a gambling bankroll; why I believe you should avoid, for the most part, all exotic type wagers like parlays, reverses, if-bets, etc.;and the importance of keeping your wagers the same throughout the season. There is much more good reading at our excellently produced web-site.
My e-mail address is sam@college-edge.com. Feel free to communicate with me at this address. You can also communicate with me at my phone number:267-752-3343. I never answer the phone. Leave your number, and I'll be happy to call you back.
In the article posted right below this one, you may have noticed I picked UCF in a TWO STAR PLAY over Marshall, with explanations as to why I liked an up-and-coming Golden Knights squad. I'd like to take this opportunity to explain my STAR wagering system.
Let's say that after establishing your all-important bankroll, which essentially lets you know what you can afford to lose on your best plays of the week, you've determined you can afford to lose $100.00 on my/your best plays. Here how the star system would work:
FOUR STAR PLAYS: If you've determined you can afford to lose $100.00 on our best plays, a four-star recommendation from the College Edge means you would invest $100.00 on our four-star recommendation.
THREE STAR PLAYS: With this recommendation, a $100.00 player would invest $75.00 in our three-star plays.
TWO STAR PLAYS: With this recommendation, a $100.00 player would invest $50.00 in our two-star plays.
ONE STAR PLAYS: With this recommendation by the College Edge, a $100.00 player would invest $25.00 in our one-star plays.
Simply adjust the amounts wagered based on what you have determined you can afford to lose. Again visit http://www.college-edge.com/ to see how important it is to set a bankroll used exclusively for your sports wagering.
Finally, when visiting our web-site, you'll also be introduced to our handicappers: Dan, our horse racing expert; Rich, our NFL, Baseball, and NBA expert; and yours truly, Sam, the founder of the College Edge. I've been handicapping College Football for over 30 years, and it's the ONLY sport I handicap! I believe I know as much about college football, and, the handicapping of it, as anyone in this country.
Please return time and again to read what I hope will be very interesting stuff!!!!
Thanks again for visiting us! I am grateful.
You can read about our philosophies at our web-site, http://www.college-edge.com/. Among the things you will read about are the overwhelming importance of a gambling bankroll; why I believe you should avoid, for the most part, all exotic type wagers like parlays, reverses, if-bets, etc.;and the importance of keeping your wagers the same throughout the season. There is much more good reading at our excellently produced web-site.
My e-mail address is sam@college-edge.com. Feel free to communicate with me at this address. You can also communicate with me at my phone number:267-752-3343. I never answer the phone. Leave your number, and I'll be happy to call you back.
In the article posted right below this one, you may have noticed I picked UCF in a TWO STAR PLAY over Marshall, with explanations as to why I liked an up-and-coming Golden Knights squad. I'd like to take this opportunity to explain my STAR wagering system.
Let's say that after establishing your all-important bankroll, which essentially lets you know what you can afford to lose on your best plays of the week, you've determined you can afford to lose $100.00 on my/your best plays. Here how the star system would work:
FOUR STAR PLAYS: If you've determined you can afford to lose $100.00 on our best plays, a four-star recommendation from the College Edge means you would invest $100.00 on our four-star recommendation.
THREE STAR PLAYS: With this recommendation, a $100.00 player would invest $75.00 in our three-star plays.
TWO STAR PLAYS: With this recommendation, a $100.00 player would invest $50.00 in our two-star plays.
ONE STAR PLAYS: With this recommendation by the College Edge, a $100.00 player would invest $25.00 in our one-star plays.
Simply adjust the amounts wagered based on what you have determined you can afford to lose. Again visit http://www.college-edge.com/ to see how important it is to set a bankroll used exclusively for your sports wagering.
Finally, when visiting our web-site, you'll also be introduced to our handicappers: Dan, our horse racing expert; Rich, our NFL, Baseball, and NBA expert; and yours truly, Sam, the founder of the College Edge. I've been handicapping College Football for over 30 years, and it's the ONLY sport I handicap! I believe I know as much about college football, and, the handicapping of it, as anyone in this country.
Please return time and again to read what I hope will be very interesting stuff!!!!
Thanks again for visiting us! I am grateful.
UCF AT MARSHALL:TWO STAR PLAY
I don't want to jinx one of my favorite coaches in college football, George O'Leary of UCF, but, I do believe his Golden Knights have a chance to be a pretty special team, at least by CUSA standards.
What gives his team a chance to be special is the fantastic defense the Knights play. They have played a schedule that includes N.C.St, and KSU, and to date, no team has thrown for over 50% yet(keep in mind N.C.St.'s QB Wilson has had a great year, except, vs. UCF). Their rush defense has been almost as good. No team, including KSU, has gained more than 3.4 yards per carry.
Their offense isn't spectacular, but, they have a nice area of strength that complements their defense: their running game.
Two factors scare me in this game: UCF is on the road as a favorite in a conference game on ESPN(CUSA teams are a scary 21-32 as road favorites in conference over the last 5 years, though UCF is 3-3 in that role); Marshall hasn't played very well this year, but, did play well vs. West Virginia in a similar spot this year.
The negative factors keep this from being a 3*** play, but, I believe UCF has a chance to be a special squad, and, I believe that special season continues tonight.
UCF IN A TWO STAR PLAY
What gives his team a chance to be special is the fantastic defense the Knights play. They have played a schedule that includes N.C.St, and KSU, and to date, no team has thrown for over 50% yet(keep in mind N.C.St.'s QB Wilson has had a great year, except, vs. UCF). Their rush defense has been almost as good. No team, including KSU, has gained more than 3.4 yards per carry.
Their offense isn't spectacular, but, they have a nice area of strength that complements their defense: their running game.
Two factors scare me in this game: UCF is on the road as a favorite in a conference game on ESPN(CUSA teams are a scary 21-32 as road favorites in conference over the last 5 years, though UCF is 3-3 in that role); Marshall hasn't played very well this year, but, did play well vs. West Virginia in a similar spot this year.
The negative factors keep this from being a 3*** play, but, I believe UCF has a chance to be a special squad, and, I believe that special season continues tonight.
UCF IN A TWO STAR PLAY
Saturday, October 9, 2010
FINAL PLAY OF THE DAY: ASU/WASHINGTON
This line should be above 10 points. No matter what happens, I will have no regrets making WASHINGTON A TWO STAR PLAY OVER ASU. IT SHOULD BE A MISMATCH.
PLEASE COME BACK AT 9:55P.M. FOR ASU/WASH
I'll be working on that game right until game-time, so please check as close to 10:00p.m. as possible for my synopsis on the ASU-Washington contest.
YOUR 7:30P.M. PLAYS FOR OCTOBER 9th:
These are two plays based on my ratings superiority for the two recommended plays:
ONE STAR PLAYS ON SOUTHERN MISS, AND AUBURN
COME BACK AGAIN FOR POTENTIAL 8:00 P.M. GAMES
ONE STAR PLAYS ON SOUTHERN MISS, AND AUBURN
COME BACK AGAIN FOR POTENTIAL 8:00 P.M. GAMES
YOUR 7:00P.M. PLAYS FOR OCTOBER 9th:
South Carolina now leads Alabama by 14. I did say that 'Bama's defense would eventually cost them. I'm sorry when the Tide potentially falls, I wasn't there to cash in against them. I started to doubt myself. Never!
Oregon St. will have success rushing the ball against Arizona with Rodgers and a very experienced offensive line. They won't have overwhelming success passing, but, they'll have enough to keep Arizona honest.
Arizona will have trouble running the ball. They will be able to pass the ball. The question is will they pass enough to get the win and COVER in the game?
The big intangible in the game is coach Riley of Oregon St. I believe he is a very good coach, and,get this: he is an incredible 10-3 in the role of an away underdog, in conference. That is not a throwaway stat. To me, that is the sign of a good coach.
OREGON ST. IN A TWO STAR PLAY OVER ARIZONA
ONE STAR PLAY ON THE COLORADO BUFFS OVER MISSOURI: Colorado's defense on the road scares me, but, my ratings tell me this line is out of whack. I won't ignore Colorado's big loss to Cal on the road, and keep the recommendation. BUT, there is a better play in this game.
Missouri has a tremendous QB in Gabbert and will have success passing the ball against a sometimes porous Buff pass defense. They haven't run the ball much this year, but, they will probably do enough tonight.
Missouri lost their HM Big 12 CB to suspension, and their Defensive player of the year in 2009 in DE Smith to injury. HE HAD 11.5 sacks IN 2009! You don't lose that kind of talent and production without repurcussions. Colorado, with its experienced offense, will score on the Tigers. As a result:
TWO STAR PLAY ON THE OVER IN THE COLORADO-MISSOURI GAME.
PLEASE RETURN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WE'RE HAVING A PRETTY GOOD DAY.
Oregon St. will have success rushing the ball against Arizona with Rodgers and a very experienced offensive line. They won't have overwhelming success passing, but, they'll have enough to keep Arizona honest.
Arizona will have trouble running the ball. They will be able to pass the ball. The question is will they pass enough to get the win and COVER in the game?
The big intangible in the game is coach Riley of Oregon St. I believe he is a very good coach, and,get this: he is an incredible 10-3 in the role of an away underdog, in conference. That is not a throwaway stat. To me, that is the sign of a good coach.
OREGON ST. IN A TWO STAR PLAY OVER ARIZONA
ONE STAR PLAY ON THE COLORADO BUFFS OVER MISSOURI: Colorado's defense on the road scares me, but, my ratings tell me this line is out of whack. I won't ignore Colorado's big loss to Cal on the road, and keep the recommendation. BUT, there is a better play in this game.
Missouri has a tremendous QB in Gabbert and will have success passing the ball against a sometimes porous Buff pass defense. They haven't run the ball much this year, but, they will probably do enough tonight.
Missouri lost their HM Big 12 CB to suspension, and their Defensive player of the year in 2009 in DE Smith to injury. HE HAD 11.5 sacks IN 2009! You don't lose that kind of talent and production without repurcussions. Colorado, with its experienced offense, will score on the Tigers. As a result:
TWO STAR PLAY ON THE OVER IN THE COLORADO-MISSOURI GAME.
PLEASE RETURN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WE'RE HAVING A PRETTY GOOD DAY.
YOUR 3:30P.M. PLAYS FOR OCT. 9TH
Michigan St. has a dangerous running game, with two running backs capable of running for 100 yards today, and, in my opinion the better passing attack in this contest. The Spartans will both run and pass vs. Mich. The Wolverines will run the ball vs. MSU. It's the passing attack which will spell the difference in this contest. I just think you can stop, or, limit that part of Robinson's game. The better balanced offense, and the better defense gives MICHIGAN ST. A TWO STAR RECOMMENDATION
PITT IN A ONE STAR PLAY OVER NOTRE DAME
Georgia Tech. like their state-brethren, Georgia, break out today vs. a team they will dominate in Virginia. The Engineers in a THREE STAR PLAY OVER VIRGINIA.
RETURN LATER THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MORE PLAYS!
PITT IN A ONE STAR PLAY OVER NOTRE DAME
Georgia Tech. like their state-brethren, Georgia, break out today vs. a team they will dominate in Virginia. The Engineers in a THREE STAR PLAY OVER VIRGINIA.
RETURN LATER THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MORE PLAYS!
MY EARLY PICKS WERE:
Ohio St. in a ONE STAR PLAY( leading 38-0)
Wisconsin in a ONE STAR PLAY( leading 28-9)
Georgia in a THREE STAR PLAY( leading 34-7)
Will release 3:30p.m. games right up until game-time, so please check in!
Wisconsin in a ONE STAR PLAY( leading 28-9)
Georgia in a THREE STAR PLAY( leading 34-7)
Will release 3:30p.m. games right up until game-time, so please check in!
SOMETIMES YOU JUST PHYSICALLY CRASH
I was just so tired last night, my body refused to go any further. I put my head down to nap, and woke up this morning(did Atlanta win?).
The early picks will be on my phone line: 267-752-3343( unless I can get home in time, which is highly unlikely).
The early picks will be on my phone line: 267-752-3343( unless I can get home in time, which is highly unlikely).
Friday, October 8, 2010
TWO STAR PLAY:UCONN-RUTGERS
Rutgers hasn't shown great ability to run the ball this year, but, the Huskies haven't shown a great ability to stop the run, so, I will predict Rutgers will have some modest success running the ball. I will predict the same for Rutgers passing offense. They have had no success in that segment of the offense, but, again, UConn has had little success in pass defense. Result: The Scarlet Knights will again have very modest success passing.
UConn has the most dangerous weapon, offensively, on the field for either team in RB Todman. He can conceivably take over the game. But, because I believe Rutgers has played good rush defense this year(held N.C.'s pretty strong offense-10 returning starters-to 87 yards rushing), and because I don't believe UConn will pass the ball enough to offer a well-balanced attack, I'll conclude Rutgers will have decent success against UConn's strongest weapon.
The biggest advantage in this game lies with the intangibles Rutgers holds in their favor. Their coach has a tremendous ATS(ag. the spread) record overall; he's very good ATS after a loss( an embarrassing one at that vs. Tulane); and he's home tonight on ESPN, getting points from a team that's in-conference.
Schiano, of Rutgers, is an excellent coach, and my selection of Rutgers tonight is mainly a product of Schiano's coaching ability, Rutgers home-field advantage, and Rutgers ability to play consistently good defense.
RUTGERS IN A TWO STAR PLAY
UConn has the most dangerous weapon, offensively, on the field for either team in RB Todman. He can conceivably take over the game. But, because I believe Rutgers has played good rush defense this year(held N.C.'s pretty strong offense-10 returning starters-to 87 yards rushing), and because I don't believe UConn will pass the ball enough to offer a well-balanced attack, I'll conclude Rutgers will have decent success against UConn's strongest weapon.
The biggest advantage in this game lies with the intangibles Rutgers holds in their favor. Their coach has a tremendous ATS(ag. the spread) record overall; he's very good ATS after a loss( an embarrassing one at that vs. Tulane); and he's home tonight on ESPN, getting points from a team that's in-conference.
Schiano, of Rutgers, is an excellent coach, and my selection of Rutgers tonight is mainly a product of Schiano's coaching ability, Rutgers home-field advantage, and Rutgers ability to play consistently good defense.
RUTGERS IN A TWO STAR PLAY
Thursday, October 7, 2010
NEBRASKA-KSU:TWO STAR PLAY TONIGHT!
In the game itself tonight, the line is just about where my ratings say it should be. So, in the game , I will cheer for one of my favorite coaches of all time, Bill Snyder, hoping he can parlay the home field advantage his team holds tonight into an upset of the Huskers. It won't be easy.
What I do like in this contest is the under. Nebraska starts a freshman in QB Martinez tonight at one of the most hostile venues in college football. The Huskers will probably run the ball. It's the Nebraska passing offense that will keep this score down. I just don't see a freshman passing the ball effectively against one of the traditionally tough passing defenses that KSU usually presents.
KSU also has a QB in Coffman that has had almost no success passing the ball this year, and I doubt Coffman will suddenly find an offensive passing rhythm tonight against a very tough Nebraska pass "D." The Wildcats have an AA candidate in RB Daniel Thomas. He's good, but, not good enough to overcome the fact his team will have great difficulty passing the ball. If UCF held Thomas to 75 yards rushing, I believe Nebraska will have some success against Thomas as well. KSU will not present enough of a threat passing to open up many holes for Thomas.
THE UNDER IN A TWO STAR PLAY IN THE NEBRASKA/KSU CONTEST.
No recommendation on the game, but, I do have a slight lean to the better balanced offense of Nebraska.
What I do like in this contest is the under. Nebraska starts a freshman in QB Martinez tonight at one of the most hostile venues in college football. The Huskers will probably run the ball. It's the Nebraska passing offense that will keep this score down. I just don't see a freshman passing the ball effectively against one of the traditionally tough passing defenses that KSU usually presents.
KSU also has a QB in Coffman that has had almost no success passing the ball this year, and I doubt Coffman will suddenly find an offensive passing rhythm tonight against a very tough Nebraska pass "D." The Wildcats have an AA candidate in RB Daniel Thomas. He's good, but, not good enough to overcome the fact his team will have great difficulty passing the ball. If UCF held Thomas to 75 yards rushing, I believe Nebraska will have some success against Thomas as well. KSU will not present enough of a threat passing to open up many holes for Thomas.
THE UNDER IN A TWO STAR PLAY IN THE NEBRASKA/KSU CONTEST.
No recommendation on the game, but, I do have a slight lean to the better balanced offense of Nebraska.
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
TENNESSEE-GEORGIA PLAY-PLUS-EARLY SCHEDULE SYNOPSIS
A big play coming on Tenn-Ga., but, first, our first impressions on the early part of this weekend's scheduled college games:
KSU can't pass the ball. Can KSU beat/cover vs. Nebraska without a passing threat? The Cornhuskers do play great defense...Very slow start for Rutgers. They have a chance to right the ship against UConn. on Friday night. They better get some semblance of a passing game. UConn is a solid team, but, their defense can be exploited. We'll see if Rutgers can...Always an interesting matchup is N.C.St. vs. B.C. Coach O'Brien coached at B.C., and did a great job there...Did you know coach Tressel is absolutely phenomenol as a conference, home favorite. They are in that role this weekend...I have commented that I believe Syracuse will be a factor in the Big East because of their defense. This weekend they play USF, on the road. Part of my problem with the Orange is the very weak teams they've played the last two weeks, Maine and Colgate. Mixed in those two contests was also a bye week. Are they battle-tested enough to face a Skip Holtz-coached team on the road???
Baylor's coming off a 55-7 romp over Kansas. Texas Tech's coming off a disappointing 52-38 loss to lowly ISU. Try to figure this game out...I don't remember a team ever having less than one starter back on defense. That's the situation with the Minny Golden Gophers. How they stayed with Northwestern last week still puzzles me( a friend told me N.W. turned the ball over in the red-zone two times). I don't see how they can stay with Wiscy, but, the Badgers have been an early season disappointment... I will write this again: coach Calhoun of Air Force is doing a GREAT job. His blitz package has become as complex as the option.
A THREE STAR PLAY ON GEORGIA:
Georgia's QB is playing at a high level, despite the Dawg's 1-4 record. Yes, Tennessee played LSU tough, but, take note of the fact the Vols only gained 200 yards in the game, and gave up 220 yards rushing to LSU(6.1 y.p.c.). I still believe the Bulldogs will make a nice run this year and achieve bowl status. That run will start this Saturday, at home, vs. Tennessee.
GEORGIA IN A THREE STAR PLAY
KSU can't pass the ball. Can KSU beat/cover vs. Nebraska without a passing threat? The Cornhuskers do play great defense...Very slow start for Rutgers. They have a chance to right the ship against UConn. on Friday night. They better get some semblance of a passing game. UConn is a solid team, but, their defense can be exploited. We'll see if Rutgers can...Always an interesting matchup is N.C.St. vs. B.C. Coach O'Brien coached at B.C., and did a great job there...Did you know coach Tressel is absolutely phenomenol as a conference, home favorite. They are in that role this weekend...I have commented that I believe Syracuse will be a factor in the Big East because of their defense. This weekend they play USF, on the road. Part of my problem with the Orange is the very weak teams they've played the last two weeks, Maine and Colgate. Mixed in those two contests was also a bye week. Are they battle-tested enough to face a Skip Holtz-coached team on the road???
Baylor's coming off a 55-7 romp over Kansas. Texas Tech's coming off a disappointing 52-38 loss to lowly ISU. Try to figure this game out...I don't remember a team ever having less than one starter back on defense. That's the situation with the Minny Golden Gophers. How they stayed with Northwestern last week still puzzles me( a friend told me N.W. turned the ball over in the red-zone two times). I don't see how they can stay with Wiscy, but, the Badgers have been an early season disappointment... I will write this again: coach Calhoun of Air Force is doing a GREAT job. His blitz package has become as complex as the option.
A THREE STAR PLAY ON GEORGIA:
Georgia's QB is playing at a high level, despite the Dawg's 1-4 record. Yes, Tennessee played LSU tough, but, take note of the fact the Vols only gained 200 yards in the game, and gave up 220 yards rushing to LSU(6.1 y.p.c.). I still believe the Bulldogs will make a nice run this year and achieve bowl status. That run will start this Saturday, at home, vs. Tennessee.
GEORGIA IN A THREE STAR PLAY
DID I JUST SEE MY 2nd NO-HITTER IN ONE YEAR?
I love handicapping college football,but, my first love will always be baseball. It's unbelievable that, thanks to one of The Trip Aces, Roy Halladay, I have witnessed two no-hitters, not to mention one was a perfect game, in one season. If you would have told me that at any point in my life prior to this year, that I would witness two no-hitters in one year, I would have called you CRAZY! But, not only have I now seen two no-hitters in one year, both have come from the arm of a Philadelphia Phillie. Unbelievable.
A bonus for the night was my ability to convince my daughter to watch the last inning with me. I hope it's something she'll remember for the rest of her life.
Go UCF!
A bonus for the night was my ability to convince my daughter to watch the last inning with me. I hope it's something she'll remember for the rest of her life.
Go UCF!
Monday, October 4, 2010
SAM'S COLLEGE FOOTBALL COLLAGE: A madcap review of last week's college football action
My first impressions of last week's college action, with no rehearsals, and no stat studies. ALSO, AN EARLY 3*** PLAY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT!
A&M almost doubled the yardage Ok.St. gained in last Thursday's game, and I somehow only got a push in the game. Aggie QB Johnson threw 4 interceptions in the game. I expect that kind of junk from a freshman QB, not a 3-year starter...I have always thought that programs like Texas, and Florida simply re-load at all positions. It's probably true at all positions, except quarterback. Gilbert of Texas, and, Brantley of Florida, new starters who replaced legends, will be good, eventually, but, for now, they have helped cost their teams a chance at the BCS Championship. I have almost never supported a team with a new QB to win the national championship. It's because new QB's will find a way to lose somewhere along the line...Northwestern should've covered vs. Minny on the road, and didn't. Wiscy lost on the road vs. MSU. OSU was favored on the road vs. Illinois, and didn't cover. PSU went on the road vs. Iowa, and didn't cover. Do you see a pattern here? It's just one week. What I'd like to do this week is check how road favorites, in conference, have done over the last five years. I'll try to give you the results. What's great about this endeavor is you are constantly trying to learn...
Virginia Tech has made its turnaround after a slow start. Another team that has gotten off to a slow start, under the leadership of a normally great coach, is Georgia Tech. They have a nice nucleus of starters back, and, like coach Beamer of V.T., I believe coach Johnson will have his team back on track. The challenge for a handicapper is figuring when that turnaround will occur...My Temple Owls survived a potential let-down game vs. Army, overcoming an early deficit, and won going away. Army is a lot tougher than many realize. Go Owls!!!
I thought Mike Leach, former coach of Texas Tech, was an offensive genius. I was fairly happy when I learned new coach, Tommy Tuberville, was going to retain that T.T., up-tempo offense. After T.T. only score 14 points vs. Texas, and now have lost to ISU, maybe no one could've been expected to succeed one of the greatest offensive minds in college football history(that is not an exaggeration)...Really curious to see the stats from Baylor's 55-7 win over Kansas. I contend the Bears' QB Griffin is one of the most dangerous run/pass threats at his position in college football, and would like to see his stats from that game... QB Pryor continues to throw at a fairly low completion ratio of under 59%. I just don't think that kind of production will survive the Big 10 schedule... My week started with the A&M pick, which resulted in a tough push, and ended with my early, Sunday morning recommendation of the over in the L.T./Hawaii game. My totals line in the game was 62.5. The final score was..... 41-21! I'll tell you this: I hope I didn't lose that total on another missed extra point. Ahhh, I'm glad I was asleep.
THREE STAR PLAY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: UAB vs. UCF
This line should have the home team favored by 21 points. UCF held the very good running back from KSU, Daniel Thomas, to under 80 yards(only 3.7 y.p.c.), and lost to KSU in the last minute of that game, in KSU. They lost to N.C.St., but held the Wolfpack to 134 yards rushing, but, much more impressively, held QB Wilson to a 10 for 30 night, and only 105 yards passing!
UAB has an inexperienced QB at the helm. I just don't see how that new QB will generate anything against UCF's outstanding defense.
UCF doesn't overwhelm you on offense, but they do have a QB in Calabrese who's efficient, and they do have a ground game that will control the game. After all, that running game produced 252 yards rushing against KSU! Needless to say, UAB's program, and defense, is not closely comparable to what UCF faced in both KSU, or N.C.St.
In an early recommendation, take UCF over UAB in a 3*** play. The line is UCF - 12.5, a bargain, and I do believe that line will go up, particularly if the national linemakers know I'm giving it out!!!
A&M almost doubled the yardage Ok.St. gained in last Thursday's game, and I somehow only got a push in the game. Aggie QB Johnson threw 4 interceptions in the game. I expect that kind of junk from a freshman QB, not a 3-year starter...I have always thought that programs like Texas, and Florida simply re-load at all positions. It's probably true at all positions, except quarterback. Gilbert of Texas, and, Brantley of Florida, new starters who replaced legends, will be good, eventually, but, for now, they have helped cost their teams a chance at the BCS Championship. I have almost never supported a team with a new QB to win the national championship. It's because new QB's will find a way to lose somewhere along the line...Northwestern should've covered vs. Minny on the road, and didn't. Wiscy lost on the road vs. MSU. OSU was favored on the road vs. Illinois, and didn't cover. PSU went on the road vs. Iowa, and didn't cover. Do you see a pattern here? It's just one week. What I'd like to do this week is check how road favorites, in conference, have done over the last five years. I'll try to give you the results. What's great about this endeavor is you are constantly trying to learn...
Virginia Tech has made its turnaround after a slow start. Another team that has gotten off to a slow start, under the leadership of a normally great coach, is Georgia Tech. They have a nice nucleus of starters back, and, like coach Beamer of V.T., I believe coach Johnson will have his team back on track. The challenge for a handicapper is figuring when that turnaround will occur...My Temple Owls survived a potential let-down game vs. Army, overcoming an early deficit, and won going away. Army is a lot tougher than many realize. Go Owls!!!
I thought Mike Leach, former coach of Texas Tech, was an offensive genius. I was fairly happy when I learned new coach, Tommy Tuberville, was going to retain that T.T., up-tempo offense. After T.T. only score 14 points vs. Texas, and now have lost to ISU, maybe no one could've been expected to succeed one of the greatest offensive minds in college football history(that is not an exaggeration)...Really curious to see the stats from Baylor's 55-7 win over Kansas. I contend the Bears' QB Griffin is one of the most dangerous run/pass threats at his position in college football, and would like to see his stats from that game... QB Pryor continues to throw at a fairly low completion ratio of under 59%. I just don't think that kind of production will survive the Big 10 schedule... My week started with the A&M pick, which resulted in a tough push, and ended with my early, Sunday morning recommendation of the over in the L.T./Hawaii game. My totals line in the game was 62.5. The final score was..... 41-21! I'll tell you this: I hope I didn't lose that total on another missed extra point. Ahhh, I'm glad I was asleep.
THREE STAR PLAY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: UAB vs. UCF
This line should have the home team favored by 21 points. UCF held the very good running back from KSU, Daniel Thomas, to under 80 yards(only 3.7 y.p.c.), and lost to KSU in the last minute of that game, in KSU. They lost to N.C.St., but held the Wolfpack to 134 yards rushing, but, much more impressively, held QB Wilson to a 10 for 30 night, and only 105 yards passing!
UAB has an inexperienced QB at the helm. I just don't see how that new QB will generate anything against UCF's outstanding defense.
UCF doesn't overwhelm you on offense, but they do have a QB in Calabrese who's efficient, and they do have a ground game that will control the game. After all, that running game produced 252 yards rushing against KSU! Needless to say, UAB's program, and defense, is not closely comparable to what UCF faced in both KSU, or N.C.St.
In an early recommendation, take UCF over UAB in a 3*** play. The line is UCF - 12.5, a bargain, and I do believe that line will go up, particularly if the national linemakers know I'm giving it out!!!
Saturday, October 2, 2010
A LATE NIGHT( EARLY MORNING?) PICK!
Two teams that love to pass. Two teams that play bad defense. That combo leads us to a 2** star recommendation on the over in the Hawaii/LaTech contest.
Sleep well!
Sleep well!
IT'S THE BEWITCHING HOUR:THE 8:00P.M. PLAYS
We had seven plays to start the day. We may end the day with an equal amount of plays, thanks to the unusual amount of 8:00p.m. starts tonight. Lots of plays to give out so let's get it on:
B.C. plus the points over Notre Dame: The better defense is also at home, and, what the heck, I do have the Eagles rated higher than the favored Irish. B.C. in a 2** play
Florida plus the points over Alabama...and... the over in the same game, both in 2** plays
Southern Miss in a 2** play over Marshall, and the under in the same game in 2** plays
Iowa in a 2** play over PSU: This Hawkeye defense just too tough for the freshman QB, and, again, on "ratings Saturday," I simply have Iowa rated much higher than the NITS.
Stanford's scary, but, getting too much credit for their wins over so-so competition. Oregon's home in one of the country's toughest venues, with 16 returning starters, and guess what: they have the much higher College Edge rating. On this "ratings Saturday," that means everything!
Oregon in a 2** play!
If I get pumped up, I may still try to work on the two remaining games on the schedule: Nevada-UNLV and LaTech-Hawaii(is there anything better than having a 4**** play in an Hawaii, late-night home game?) Check in.
B.C. plus the points over Notre Dame: The better defense is also at home, and, what the heck, I do have the Eagles rated higher than the favored Irish. B.C. in a 2** play
Florida plus the points over Alabama...and... the over in the same game, both in 2** plays
Southern Miss in a 2** play over Marshall, and the under in the same game in 2** plays
Iowa in a 2** play over PSU: This Hawkeye defense just too tough for the freshman QB, and, again, on "ratings Saturday," I simply have Iowa rated much higher than the NITS.
Stanford's scary, but, getting too much credit for their wins over so-so competition. Oregon's home in one of the country's toughest venues, with 16 returning starters, and guess what: they have the much higher College Edge rating. On this "ratings Saturday," that means everything!
Oregon in a 2** play!
If I get pumped up, I may still try to work on the two remaining games on the schedule: Nevada-UNLV and LaTech-Hawaii(is there anything better than having a 4**** play in an Hawaii, late-night home game?) Check in.
IT'S THE NIGHT PLAYS!
Okay, so it hasn't been such a great day. I will trudge on with the grand strategy of going with the under-valued teams, according to my rating system. It's really worked well today, hasn't it?
Here are two 7:00p.m., TWO STAR PLAYS:
Colorado over Georgia
Texas Tech over ISU
We'll return throughout the night until the schedule is concluded.
Here are two 7:00p.m., TWO STAR PLAYS:
Colorado over Georgia
Texas Tech over ISU
We'll return throughout the night until the schedule is concluded.
WHY WAIT:ARIZONA ST/OREGON ST.
Oregon St. is the better team. They have played a tough early schedule, which I believe has obscured how good this team could be. My ratings have Oregon St. far better than ASU. Since this "ratings Saturday," I will go with the much higher rated home team and recommend Oregon St. in a 3*** play.
MID-DAY PICKS( Go Owls!)
I'll take the better defense: Texas in a 2** pick over Oklahoma
In the same game: the under in the Texas/Oklahoma game for a 1* play
Virginia Tech in a 2** play over N.C.St.: I know I'm going against momentum in going against the Wolfpack, but, V.T. should take advantage of what I believe is a weak defense, and, besides, I have V.T. as a 7.5 favorite in the game, and the actual line is dropping, and now stands at 3.5. I'll take the bargain.
PLENTY OF SELECTIONS TO COME
In the same game: the under in the Texas/Oklahoma game for a 1* play
Virginia Tech in a 2** play over N.C.St.: I know I'm going against momentum in going against the Wolfpack, but, V.T. should take advantage of what I believe is a weak defense, and, besides, I have V.T. as a 7.5 favorite in the game, and the actual line is dropping, and now stands at 3.5. I'll take the bargain.
PLENTY OF SELECTIONS TO COME
NAVY-AIRFORCE
We're going to take Navy in a 2** selection over Air Force. The Middies' and Falcons' ratings are almost the same, with the Air Force slightly higher. I had Air Force as a 2 point favorite, so the value pick, according to my ratings, is Navy.
Air Force will be a scary opponent for three reasons: they have a good coach; they are home; and they are in serious revenge mode, having lost to Navy 7 games in a row! But, it's important to note these teams know each other very well, and that is no better illustrated in the fact that in 6 of the last 7 contests the Navy has won by less than a TD.
Yo, all picks are potentially scary, but, we like the Navy to cover in another closely played game.
Air Force will be a scary opponent for three reasons: they have a good coach; they are home; and they are in serious revenge mode, having lost to Navy 7 games in a row! But, it's important to note these teams know each other very well, and that is no better illustrated in the fact that in 6 of the last 7 contests the Navy has won by less than a TD.
Yo, all picks are potentially scary, but, we like the Navy to cover in another closely played game.
Friday, October 1, 2010
WELCOME OCTOBER:EARLY PLAYS FOR OCTOBER 2, 2010
This will be a special day for me. I have decided to do something revolutionary and invest in every game where my ratings tell me that the actual line in the game is sufficiently different from what I believe the line should be. Let me use one of the games I've handicapped to illustrate what I mean:
In the Northwestern/Minnesota contest, my ratings put the Wildcats at 85.5, and the Golden Gophers at only 61.1. Maybe, one day I'll put in print all the variables that result in a team's rating. Let me write this: Minnesota's rating is one of the lowest in Division 1A. Their sub-par running, and passing game, and the fact they have LESS than one starter back on defense lends much to their low rating. Based on these team ratings, I believe Northwestern should've been a 12-14.5 favorite over Minnesota. They are presently favored by only 5.5. According to my ratings, Northwestern is seriously under-valued, and I will make the Wildcats a 2** play.
This is the first time this year, and the first time in a while, that I've decided to totally trust my ratings, and invest in every game where I believe my ratings are right, and the actual line is wrong. I will not ask you to do the same. Follow my picks, let's see how I do, and, if you decide to go with my selections, let's hope we enjoy a profitable day. Here are my early plays:
UConn Huskies in a 2** play over Vanderbilt
Northwestern Wildcats over Minnesota in a 2** play
Kentucky Wildcats in a 2** play over Mississippi
Kansas Jayhawks over Baylor in a 2** play
Ohio St. Buckeyes in a 2** play over Illinois
Florida St. Seminoles over Virginia in a 2** play
Clemson Tigers in a 2** play over Miami
Added Note: I believe in certain line situations, IT IS worth buying a .5 point. Last night, for example, my line on the A&M/Ok.St. game dropped to +2.5. I took A&M in the game. The 3 point differential in football games is so common, I thought it worthwhile to buy the extra 1/2 point, and make A&M a +3 point underdog in the game. It was a good decision. I got a push in the game, instead of a loss. The commission, or vigorish, moved from 10% to 20%.
I did the same in tomorrow's UConn/Vanderbilt contest. My line had UConn as a -7.5 favorite. I bought the 1/2 point, and made Uconn a -7 point favorite. Again, in certain favorable line situations, I do believe it is worth buying the extra 1/2 point.
Return to collegeedge.blogspot.com throughout the day, and at approximately 1:30p.m., join me at my phone line as well for other possible early selections. My number is: 267-752-edge.
In the Northwestern/Minnesota contest, my ratings put the Wildcats at 85.5, and the Golden Gophers at only 61.1. Maybe, one day I'll put in print all the variables that result in a team's rating. Let me write this: Minnesota's rating is one of the lowest in Division 1A. Their sub-par running, and passing game, and the fact they have LESS than one starter back on defense lends much to their low rating. Based on these team ratings, I believe Northwestern should've been a 12-14.5 favorite over Minnesota. They are presently favored by only 5.5. According to my ratings, Northwestern is seriously under-valued, and I will make the Wildcats a 2** play.
This is the first time this year, and the first time in a while, that I've decided to totally trust my ratings, and invest in every game where I believe my ratings are right, and the actual line is wrong. I will not ask you to do the same. Follow my picks, let's see how I do, and, if you decide to go with my selections, let's hope we enjoy a profitable day. Here are my early plays:
UConn Huskies in a 2** play over Vanderbilt
Northwestern Wildcats over Minnesota in a 2** play
Kentucky Wildcats in a 2** play over Mississippi
Kansas Jayhawks over Baylor in a 2** play
Ohio St. Buckeyes in a 2** play over Illinois
Florida St. Seminoles over Virginia in a 2** play
Clemson Tigers in a 2** play over Miami
Added Note: I believe in certain line situations, IT IS worth buying a .5 point. Last night, for example, my line on the A&M/Ok.St. game dropped to +2.5. I took A&M in the game. The 3 point differential in football games is so common, I thought it worthwhile to buy the extra 1/2 point, and make A&M a +3 point underdog in the game. It was a good decision. I got a push in the game, instead of a loss. The commission, or vigorish, moved from 10% to 20%.
I did the same in tomorrow's UConn/Vanderbilt contest. My line had UConn as a -7.5 favorite. I bought the 1/2 point, and made Uconn a -7 point favorite. Again, in certain favorable line situations, I do believe it is worth buying the extra 1/2 point.
Return to collegeedge.blogspot.com throughout the day, and at approximately 1:30p.m., join me at my phone line as well for other possible early selections. My number is: 267-752-edge.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)