Here Is My Unique 2012-2013 College Bowl Offer!

The 2012-2013 College Football Bowl Offer is now available to you! Here's the catch: If  I don't hit 54% of my approximate 50-60 bowl recommendations, you get $28.00 of the $30.00 fee returned. Period!

It's really that simple. If I don't produce, I don't get paid.

Those who were with me last year know what I'm capable of accomplishing. In 2011, from the point my clients signed up for the regular season offer, I went 46-17, which translates to an unheard of 73%! I followed up that unbelievable year with a work-man-like record of 71-55 this year(56.3%). For those of you who may try to minimize this winning percentage, check this out for proper perspective: if you were a $100.00 investor and stuck with that investment throughout the season with my picks, you would've won $1050.00! This isn't bullcrap. Just the facts.

To sign up, simply glance over to your right. You'll see my bowl offer available to you right now. Click the proper link, and my trusted PayPal account will make you a part of my exciting bowl season.

I'll text my picks, and e-mail them as well, when necessary. The first three games are complimentary. You'll need to sign up by December 22nd to get the games scheduled for that date.

I have already given out the over in the Nevada-Arizona as my first official bowl selection. Tonight, I am giving out Nevada and Utah St. as my remaining selections for this opening of the bowl season. Look to www.twitter.com/edgysam for my BYU - SDSU selection(s).

LET ME PICK YOUR 2012 COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL POOL!

I've had four requests so far from friends and family that I help pick their College Football Bowl Pools. It gave me the idea of offering to do the same for anyone who might be interested, and here is how it works:
Sign up for the $8.00 offer over at the right of my blog address(it's the weekend horse racing offer). By doing so, I'll pick your 2012-2013 College Football Bowl Pool(you'll have to let me know if it's picking straight winners, or, against the spread). I'll e-mail you the selections.
The picks I make for you are simply my first impressions of these games and NOT MY FINAL OPINIONS. Lots of times over the years, I've had opinions on games when matchups were first announced that change once I've handicapped those same games later in the bowl season.
I repeat: the picks I make on these bowl pools are simply my first impressions on the bowl matchups, not my final opinion.
Nevertheless, I eat, drink and sleep college football from early July to early January. Where you may not even know the difference between Utah St. and Rice, I have a working knowledge of those two teams, and every team that's involved in this year's 35 bowl games.
I assume most pools need to be turned in by Friday, so, I've set a deadline of midnight Thursday evening for anyone who might be interested. Sign up now and have a chance to be the star of you Bowl Pool!
FRIDAY MORNING I ANNOUNCE MY 2012-2013 COLLEGE BOWL OFFER!

Last Big Weekend of College FBS Picks: ONLY $8.00!

Why not sign up for this week's college football picks? I will be working every FBS game this week, with a couple of possible exceptions. All you have to do is glance over to the right on this page. You'll see a horse racing, weekend offer that costs only $8.00. Click that link. You'll get all my college football picks for that low cost.
As of Monday evening, I've already worked 4 games, and released one game to my clients, better known as my "cleeps" to the handicapping world. I am holding off making decisions on the other games, pending information I'll be gathering during the week.
Last week, I lost on my Over pick with TCU/Texas game, went 5-1 on my second favorite day of the college football year, Black Friday, then followed that on Saturday with a 4-3 record vs. the spread. My final record for my cleeps was 9-5.
This is going to be a fun, final, big weekend of college football. Why not spend an unbelievably inexpensive amount to sign up and enjoy it with my College Edge crew!

BLACK FRIDAY(and more) College Football Offer: Only $8.00

For only $8.00 get:
1) all of our picks and opinions on today's Black Friday games.
2) all of our picks and opinions on Saturday, November 25th games
3) Our NFL picks this week

Visit collegeedge.blogspot.com Sign up at that home page on the horse-racing offer. It only costs $8.00 and you get all of the above.
I'll e-mail you the picks, as well as text most of same picks. Thanks. Sam F

#AWedding and #FreeEnterprise: Perfect Together!(This is not an Endorsement)

I went to a wedding the other night and a great understanding of the free enterprise system broke out!
I have a friend, who we'll call Ed,  who owns a convenience store, and, I was lucky enough to be invited to his daughter's wedding. You know how weddings work: at some weddings you sit with the family; at others you're with the groom's, or, bride's friends. At this wedding I was at the work table. I sat with the store's workers, suppliers and service contractors. We had all become friends at the store, and, we were at the funkiest tables in the hall.
At some point in the night, after my fourth drink, or, after my dance-a-phobic wife boogied down a Soul Train-like line dance, I realized all these different partiers, from varying economic and racial backgrounds, were brought together because of a gutsy decision my buddy made years before: to open his own business!
Like most of us, I'm guessing Ed was trying to figure out how he was going to make a living. I'm sure he had no idea that in deciding to open his store, and running it about as good as anyone can, he'd, like George Bailey in "It's a Wonderful Life," touch so many other lives.
Like the life of Jim, seated to my left, who has been an employee at the store for years; like the life of Sal the Plumber, who not only can't dance, but, has fixed every plumbing job the store's needed for years, and has gotten untold other jobs from Ed's recommendations; like Ricky the Produce Man( yeah, we all have nicknames), who may not know how to tie a tie, but, who became the most trusted man when it came to fruit and veggies because Ed gave him an opportunity to sell his wares in a spot in the store; and like Ed's daughter, Melanie, the star of the night, who has come to run Ed's store (almost) as efficiently as her dad.
Then I thought of the 20 or so other employees who weren't there and weren't lucky enough to see me dance, or the Dorito's, Tastycake, Pepsi and garbage guys I've come to know who have income producing routes because of Ed and other store owners just like him, or, the countless others that have benefited from Ed's decision that I was too bombed to remember.
I sat there over my chocolate wedding cake and multiplied the lives Ed's touched by the millions of other lives that have been touched by others, like Ed, who had the guts to start a business.
I love free enterprise. I love living in a country that allows it to exist. Without endorsing anyone on the eve of another important election, I'll vote for the candidates who'll give guys like Ed, not the guaranteed chance to succeed, but, the best chance to succeed.
After the party high wears off,  I may still not be able to explain how this whole free enterprise thing works, but, for now, I want to thank Ed for inviting me to a wonderful wedding!

Our BREEDER'S CUP OFFER: WILDLY AFFORDABLE!

Right here, at collegeedge.blogspot.com, you can sign up for the Breeder's cup selections! Here are the details.
As most of you know, I started the College Edge(www.college-edge.com) as a college football-only handicapping business. It is, literally, the only sport I handicap. Over the years, I've discovered handicappers who were proficient at other sports, and have offered their services to our public.
Rich is my Baseball and Basketball expert; Greg is my NFL and Baseball guru; and for our fantastic purposes this weekend, Dan is my horse racing specialist.
Dan calls himself a speed handicapper, and he's been studying the horses for 40+years. He's done a nice job for the College Edge when we've asked for his services, and we offer them once again on what may be the biggest horse racing weekend of the year: The 2012 Breeder's Cup Races!
Again, right here at this site you can sign up for Saturday's Breeder's Cup Races. You'll see a charge of $8.00 for one weekend of picks from the Parx RaceTrack. Simply sign in at that spot, for the low cost of $8.00, and you'll get our selections for all of Saturday's Breeder's Cup Races.
Dan probably knows more about the horses than anyone reading about this offer, so let Dan put his expertise to work for you. It'll be fun to watch the races, and actually have a chance to win some decent cash, and, the good part is, you are only paying $8.00!
I need to know by midnight on Friday, Nov.2nd. At 12:01a.m., I'll e-mail Dan's selections for each race of Saturday's Breeder's Cup

Here's another idea for you: In 2011, I went 46-17 for my college football clients(an unbelievable 73%). This year, going into this week, my record is 52-38(577%).
Sign up at the part on this page where we offer college football and the NFL(only $50.00 for the regular season), and you'll now get: Sam's college football picks, Greg's NFL picks, and Saturday's Breeder's Cup selections. Does it get any better than that?

Again, sign up by midnight, Friday night, and at 12:01a.m., Saturday morning, I'll release all of Dan's Breeder's Cup selections.We hope you'll give us a chance.

#HandicappingSeminar: N.D.-Okla Under, A Win!!!!

I thought the line on the Notre Dame- Oklahoma game was just about where it should've been. The line that attracted my attention was the under in the game. Like most observers, I see the Irish as a very strong defensive team with questions on offense. Like most observers, I went into research on the Sooners thinking they had a powerful offense and good defense. What surprised me were the Okla. stats in the KSU and Texas Tech games. In both games, they gained only 121 yards on the ground, or less, and, in the former game, they scored only 19 points. I had little doubt the Irish defense was just as good as KSU's , and much better than Texas Tech's.
I also had little doubt the Oklahoma defense, with 7.5 returning starters, and a strong defensive backfield, could hold the very average Irish offense in check.
The Irish did their job, playing well, defensively,  against  the Sooner offense. What almost cost me a loss in the pick was how successfully the Irish moved the ball vs.Stoops' defense.Thank goodness the Irish only allowed 13 points versus the QB Landry Jones-led offense. It was less than what I expected Okla. would score and resulted in our final win of a very good day!

#HandicappingSeminar: UCF over Marshall, A Win

The College Edge pick of UCF over Marshall was my most confident pick of the day. UCF is one of the traditional top teams in the CUSA. They were also rated considerably higher than Marshall according to my College Edge team ratings, and, still, the line on the game was dropping( I got the line at UCF -1). I love it when the public is against me, as they were in this contest.
I really like Marshall this year, and I've been really impressed with the play of Thundering Herd QB Cato.BUT, the public is easily taken by a team that is playing well, particularly a team that isn't used to playing that way.
The reality was Marshall was playing a team in UCF that has a great coach in O'Leary,a very good nucleus of returning starters from the 2011 squad( 15 returnees), and a proven pedigree. My confident pick turned into an easy win as UCF dominated in a 54-17 win.

#HandicappingSeminar:OSU-PSU under, A Loss

In our only loss of the day, we gave out the under in the OSU-PSU, Ineligibl Bowl. Call me a non-believer in QB McGloin of PSU. I just didn't think the Nits QB would move the ball successfully against an Ohio St. team that, admittedly hasn't played that well on defense this year, but, still, has 9 starters back from the 2011 team.
On Ohio St.'s offensive side of the ball, my hope was QB Miller, coming off a mild concussion in the Purdue game, would helm a conservative game plan that would keep hits to his body at a rarity. I was wrong. Miller played a great game, and, threw our under play into diarray. It resulted in our only losing pick of the day.

#HandicappingSeminar:UCLA over ASU, A Win

I picked UCLA over ASU for one major reason: yours truly, edgysam, had the Bruins rated higher than the Sun Devils under my College Edge team ratings, and those same Bruins came into the game as an underdog! I'm not absolutely married to that type of situation, but, it takes a lot to convince me to go against it. Admittedly, I was fearful that ASU was home, that they were getting good play from the quarterback position, and despite the fact I don't personally like coach Graham, the home team had a darn good coach at the helm.
In the end that wasn't enough to deter me from the Bruins pick. Despite an early 0-14 deficit, and the feeling of impending (football) doom, the Bruins got fantastic games from QB Hundley and RB Franklin, and the College Edge got the cover!

#HandicappingSeminar: N.Caro.over NCSU, A Win

North Carolina was the College Edge pick over North Carolina State in the last of our early Saturday plays. I picked the Tar Heels for a couple of major reasons: I had them rated higher than the Wolfpack under my College Edge team ratings, and I believed the Heels would be motivated to play hard following their embarrassing loss to in-state rival, Duke, the previous week.
In picking N.C., I was going against one of my favorite coaches, Tom O'Brien, who just so happens to be one of the best coaches in the FBS as a road underdog.
My fears were justified. NCSU played a very good game on the road, and, there is no way I deserved to get the cover in this ACC matchup. N.C. scored on a punt return with 13 seconds left, and, then, muffed the extra point snap, but, the holder picked up the loose football and threw a 2-point play in desperation!
Was I lucky? Yes. Am I apologetic? Definitely not. I don't cry when I lose these type of games(okay, maybe I cry for a little while), and my happiness is always tempered by the fact luck can change in an instant!

#HandicappingSeminar: Ky-Missouri Under, A Win

Edgysam gave out the under in the Kentucky - Missouri contest primarily because of the inexperience at the quarterback position for both the Wildcats and Tigers. Each team's starting QB was injured and not scheduled to play. The Kentucky injury was not that influential in my thinking, but, the injury to QB Franklin of Missou was very important in almost sealing the deal for the under pick. The junior starter is a threat as both a runner and passer, and had a very good year in 2011. Injuries to contributing running backs for both teams absolutely clinched the deal for the under pick.
A turnover for a TD put the under in doubt, but, woeful passing stats for both teams( Kentucky threw for 78 yards in the game, Missouri for 87) helped the College Edge, and our cleeps, get an under cover.

#HandicappingSeminar:Tenn-S.Caro. under, A Win

The College Edge gave out the over in the Tennessee-South Carolina game, and the decision was based mostly on the Vols' stats. They scored 44, 20 and 35 points, respectively, against good defenses like Georgia, Florida and N.C.St. Conversely, the Vol defense has been pretty bad this year, playing well against neither the run or the pass.
Luckily, this game had 42 points scored by halftime, and was put easily into the win column.

#HandicappingSeminar: Cincy vs. Louisville, A Push

Louisville's pick was hugely based on the College Edge ratings. The Cardinals' edge in returning starters, experienced quarterback( Bridgewater over Legaux) and home field, on a Thursday night, featured ESPN game, gave the Charlie Strong-coached team a decided edge in the eyes of edgysam. The fact Cincy played an unbelievably easy schedule prior to the Louisville game - Delaware St., Miami,Oh, Fordham, Toledo- led me to believe the Bearcats were not ready to play a team that was superior to them and, on top of that was more battle-tested. I was wrong.
Cincy played a tough game( Bearcats outgained their Big East opponent on the ground by 196 to 108), and had every right to win the game. I was very lucky to get a push in the game, and was grateful I decided, before the season started, I would buy a 1/2 point when the spread is near important numbers like 3, 7, 10, etc. My game-time line was -3.5 points.
Oh, yeah, by the way, my power did go down for 16 hours.

#HandicappingSeminar: Nevada-AirForce, A Losing Pick

In the Nevada-Air Force game,  I had the Wolfpack rated higher than the Falcons, and the stats seemed to back up my ratings. Nevada's offensive stats were sterling going into the MWC matchup, and I didn't envision any way Air Force's inexperienced defense could stop coach Chris Ault's vaunted Pistol offense. Hey, on top of that QB Fajardo was returning from an injury. Man, was I wrong!
I got my butt kicked because the Falcons' own vaunted offense, the legendary, service academy option, destroyed Nevada's defense when they gained over 475 yards on the ground, on 82 carries, and, get this, an un-service academy-like, 139 yards in the air.That's over 600 yards of total offense.
A lesson re-learned: never under estimate the ability of a service academy to rip to shreds a defense that doesn't know how to defend the option.
I wish I would've won my Nevada pick, but, I never cease to be proud when the service academy teams kick butt. I love the service academy teams!

#HandicappingSeminar: ArkSt-La.: Losing Pick

I gave out Louisiana, Lafayette over Arkansas St. in my first pick of the week. Since I'm fairly new to the Sun Belt Conference, my College Edge team ratings carry on even more importance. In this contest, I had La. rated higher than Ark.St. by a considerable amount in their in-conference game. In the stats I had updated on both teams, La. had played much better, according to the stats, corroborating their status as the higher rated team. My pick seemed to be pretty justified, but, the result was quite different. My La. pick went down in flames.
One of my major takes on the game wasn't so much that I lost what I thought was a pretty solid pick. That happens all the time. What I will be more aware of, in terms of Ark.St, is how well new coach Gus Malzahn performs in his new role as a head coach. He was innovative as an Offensive Coordinator(Auburn's O-Coor during championship year), and that may carry over to his new role. Malzahn may be a head coach worth investing in in the future. Come to think of it, this Ark.St loss may have been productive for me than I thought. You never have enough great college football coaches!

#Clemson - #WakeForest Decision

Here was the decision I was confronted with in this game. Do I go with the history of Wake coach Jim Grobe, who was a sensational 18-9 in home dog situations, or go with the present reality of a Clemson offense that had stars at every offensive category, and has shown it can score proficiently.
Despite an often poor defense, I just didn't think Wake could keep up with Tiger scoring machine. They couldn't.

#CollegeEdge Picks in La.- No.Texas Game

Overwhelming amount of returning starters on both teams return to the offensive sides of the ball. Most impressive are the 8 offensive linemen that return as starters from the La. and North Texas. Each defense, on the other hand returns only 4 and 5 starters, respectively, from the '11 teams.
Over the total was my recommendation to my cleeps.
My respect for North Texas coach Dan McCarney, formerly of ISU, makes for a slight lean to North Texas. No recommendation for my cleeps, but, a small lean to the Mean Green.

#CollegeEdge Works for The #Cleeps: Navy vs. C.Mich

Central Michigan and the over in the same game are the initial picks for my 2012 cleeps! Can I top my 46-17,  2011 record?
Do you know why I couldn't wait for this game? Other than the fact I look forward to every college football game, I love watching option football, and how it's run so well by the service academies.

#TheCollegeEdge 2012 #CollegeFootballOffer

My brother did another great job getting the 2012 College Football Offer posted at collegeedge.blogspot.com, and I'm proud to announce it now!
The College Edge is offering all weekday and weeknight recommendations through the end of the FBS regular season( includes my second favorite college football day of the year, Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving); all games that are played on Saturdays, through the end of the regular season, and that have start times between 12:00p.m. - 6:00p.m., will continue to be complimentary; all games that are played on Saturdays, through the end of the regular season, that have start times between 6:01p.m., or later, will now be included in our offer; if a game is played on Sundays during balance of regular season, it will be included in our offer.

Yo, Floyd Mayweather, believe it or not, after an unbelievable 2011 record of 46-17 for my valued customers, the College Edge College Football Offer for the balance of the FBS season: only $40.00 (for an additional $10.00, you'll get Greg's and Rich's MLB Playoffs and NFL regular season picks)!!! If you take a look over at the side of this article, you'll see you can sign up right now by credit card through PayPal.

I thought it might be a good idea to let you know what I've done to prepare myself for what I hope is another great year for what I proudly call my "cleeps"( clients).

My work started around July 1st, when I received my college football magazines. As I have done for at least the last 30+ years, I bought my 200 page, bindered notebook, and proceeded to spend the summer working the College Edge team ratings on nearly all Division 1, FBS teams(approximately 115). I average about 40 minutes per team, and these are the categories of each team I list, and put a point value on: coaching staff, returning starters, quarterback, offensive line, running backs, receivers, defensive line, linebackers, defensive backs, corner backs, lettermen, special teams. I put my own point value on each of these categories, and after factoring in things like home or away, records against the spread, conference records, etc., the College Edge comes up with the most important part of the handicapping experience: the College Edge Team Ratings!

What you have just read is what I do prior to the season starting. Those team ratings change almost weekly during the season. They do so because from the first week I log each team's stats, handwritten in my 200 page notebook( oh yeah, in recent years I've added a 100 page Temple notebook as well). I also check daily the injury reports for all of the FBS teams. If a team's rushing stats don't meet expectations, for example, the ratings are adjusted; if a team has any significant injury, the ratings are adjusted. Each week will probably bring some adjustment to every team's rating. It is truly a weekly challenge.

All this prepares me for the most important aspect of handicapping: putting myself in the best position to give out good recommendations. I can't guarantee winners, but, I do promise I'll do everything in my power to pick winners. I hope you'll consider joining our College Edge College Football Offer.

E-mail: sam@college-edge.com
Phone: 267-752-3343(EDGE)

I plan to give out my picks by text, e-mail, and phone. If you can recommend another way of giving out the recommendations, let me know. Thank You. Sam

#CollegeEdge Recommendations: Utah St vs. BYU

Utah St gave up less than 3.5 yards per carry to both Utah and Wisconsin. With BYU's leading rusher from '11 out ( M. Alisa), and the Cougars starting a freshman at QB, I believe the Aggies can continue to play the tough defense they've played to date. USU decent on offense, but, BYU plays good, consistent defense.
Consequently, UNDER THE TOTALS IS THE RECOMMENDATION.

USU has the better QB in Keeton vs. Hill; they may have the slightly better running game; BYU has the better defense, but, USU has shown they are not intimidated by these bigger programs, and I don't believe BYU has the diversity in offense to cause the Aggies a lot of defensive problems. Believe it, or, not, USU seems like the obvious pick, but, sometimes the obvious pick is the right pick.
Utah St. Aggies is the recommendation, and yes, if line is +6.5, I would buy the .5 point.

#CollegeEdge Recommendation: Pitt vs. Syracuse

I have a feel that Pitt has the better team, but, I have the Orange rated higher under my College Edge team ratings, so, I will let a side go in the game.
Pitt has experience and talent at every offensive position, including a possible 2 running backs who can gain 1000 yards this year. Syracuse has given up 42 points to both Northwestern and USC.
I don't think Piit's defense is that strong and Syracuse has shown they can score with the experience at QB in Ryan Nassib.
The recommendation: Over the totals in the Pitt/Syracuse contest.

Anatomy of a Handicapped Game,Ark.St - FIU: The Result

I had FIU rated a lot higher than Arkansas St. When I have a team rated a lot higher than another team, and that team comes into a game as an underdog, and then that team LOSES, I still, after all these years, am amazed. It forces you to look at the stats from the game right away and try to understand why you were so wrong. I did that with last night's game.
It turns out the stats in the game were pretty similar for both teams. ArkSt gained 198 yards on the ground, FIU, 188. ASU gained 223 yards in the air(65%), FIU gained 153 yards in the air(61%). As is usually the case, when the stats don't match the score, the next place to look is in the turnover department. This is where FIU probably cost itself( and edgySam) any chance to win and cover.
The Golden Panthers gave up two interceptions which led directly to ASU touchdowns. The Red Wolves had no turnovers in the game!
I will write here that my biggest fear in the game was experience at the QB position(senior starter)for ASU, and inexperience at the QB position(freshman starter) for FIU. My fears appeared to be justified. For the record: I accepted the inexperience of freshman QB Hilliard, but, still concluded that the rest of the team was so much stronger than their opponent, that a recommendation would still be in order. I WAS WRONG!
I guess it helped confirm my belief that, other than the head coach, the most important position on the field is the quarterback.

East Carolina vs. UCF: The Recommendation

UCF is the higher rated team by a good margin under my College Edge ratings...UCF is a home favorite, and coach O'Leary has been very good in that role since he's been at UCF(18-10)...UCF is also outstanding under coach O'Leary vs. conference teams( 39-27)... it also doesn't hurt that UCF is coming off a loss to Missouri and are in a revenge situation, having lost to E.C. last year...Yo, and the line's dropping...
The Recommendation: UCF Knights

Anatomy of a Handicapped Game, Ark.St-FIU: The Recommendation

FIU has the theoretically, much better defense...they have had time to adjust to the fact a freshman, albeit fairly talented one, is starting at QB...they have a 1100 yard-rusher from last year to control the clock and running game...Ark.St has a decent QB, but, a defense that should be extremely porous, considering the lack of experience on that side of the ball.
I got burned on Buffalo when I went with the higher rated underdog a couple of weeks back. I expect to get my payback tonight, as once again I go with the higher rated team that's home, coming into this game as the underdog.
The well coached FIU Golden Panthers are tonight's Sun Belt recommendation!

Anatomy of a Handicapped Game, Ark.St vs. FIU: Part III

Arkansas St.: This is what I think of the RedWolves after updating their stats, injury reports and conference record. They have a good quarterback, decent rushers, decent o-linemen, and an above average( for the Sun Belt) receiving corps.
By everything I've researched, their tremendous losses on defense should lead to a sub-par unit on that side of the ball.
The x-factor is head coach Gus Malzahn. It's his first year as a head coach. So, do I rate him as such, or, do I give him extra points for being an offensive innovator?
FIU: I think FIU should be able to run the ball tonight against a porous defense, but, I think the pass offense should be a little restricted since a freshman is starting tonight at QB. O-line should be above average(for a Sun Belt team) and they do have a serviceable receiving unit.
Theoretically, with all of the Golden Panther starters returning from last year's team, the defense should be the strength of the team. BUT, that loss 48-20 loss to La. is a pretty scary score and will keep me in thought a little longer than I might otherwise be. Why?
I completed my College Edge ratings on both Ark.St and FIU, and I have FIU as the higher rated team by a considerable margin. FIU is the surprising underdog, even though they are home, and the line keeps moving in Ark.St's direction.
There will be a recommendation on this game. Look for that pick at 7:00p.m.!

Anatomy of a Handicapped Game, ArkSt vs. FIU: Part II

In contrast to the new coach, Malzahn, of Ark.St, coach Mario Cristobal of FIU has the supposed experience edge. He's in his 6th year with the Golden Panthers.
My early impressions of FIU's team: offense in flux, defense should be strong.
The team looked relatively strong on offense with experience at every spot on that side of the ball, including 1200 yard-rusher Kedrick Rhodes. Here's the problem: designated starter at QB, Jake Medlock, is hurt. Now, Medlock isn't a returning starter from the '11 team, and he's only a sophomore, so he shouldn't be that hard to replace. His replacement is a freshman( EJ Hilliard), so that will be a big factor when I make my final decision tomorrow.
FIU has a large amount of starters back on defense(9.8), and the good point is last year's Panther defense, with most of these same players, was a very good one. Here is my challenge. FIU is 1-4 going into this game, which is okay since they did play UCF, Louisville, and Duke. The game that is making this whole endeavor challenging is their loss to Louisiana by the surprising score of 48-20! That's a pretty good butt-kicking, and that game will force me to take a more concentrated look at FIU's chances in this Sun Belt matchup.
Tomorrow, I add up the value of each team's positions, factor in conference and home records, and reveal which team has the higher College Edge team rating. I believe FIU will be rated higher, but, at this point, I have no idea if I'm right. I'm looking forward to the answer.

Anatomy of a Handicapped Game, Ark.St.vs FIU: Part I

Did you know the new coach of the Arkansas St. Red Wolves is Gus Malzahn?  He's made his rep as an innovative offensive coordinator, who, it just so happens, was the OC for Cam Newton and the National Titlists of 2010, the Auburn Tigers. He's put a nice coaching staff together, but, he's never been a coach at a major college program. We'll see how he responds to the new position.
Just finished my evaluations of each position on the ArkSt team, and updated the stats for their first four games. My early impressions of this Sun Belt representative are: good offense, porous defense.
Wolves have QB Aplin back from last year's squad(1st team SBC QB), a decent O-line, serviceable running backs( although new RB Oku, completely unknown to me, has had some good games), above average receivers, and, theoretically, a well conceived offensive attack.
It's their defense that will probably have a great affect on my thinking for tomorrow night's contest vs. FIU. They've lost 6 all-SBC defenders from last year's highly rated defense. Included in those losses are both cornerbacks(!), SBC defensive Player of the Year Brandon Joiner ( 13 sacks in '11!!!), and 3rd round draft choice, and #1 tackler from last year's team, LB Demario Davis. Those are gigantic, humongous, losses.
I'll do my ratings of the Red Wolves later, but, I have a feeling I'm looking at a team that will score some points tomorrow night, but, will also give up a mess-load of points as well.
Next on the agenda: early impressions of the FIU Golden Panthers!

#TheCollegeEdge Picks #TexasTech vs.#ISU

Texas Tech is the comfortably higher rated team in this matchup vs. ISU under my College Edge team ratings. They have a host of returning starters, which include a very good QB in Seth Doege. I think it's important that so many starters return for Texas Tech(15.5), better to remember the whuppin' they took at the hands of ISU last year(7-41), at home.
TEXAS TECH IS THE RECOMMENDATION

#CollegeEdge Early Sat. Recommendations(Comp!)

Minny vs. Iowa: Minny is without double threat quarterback Gray. Iowa has played mediocre in the early going, but, the Hawkeyes have the much better quarterback, the better defense, and a coach in Kirk Ferentz who has been unreal in the last 10 years vs. the spread, after a loss( 24-10). IOWA IS THE RECOMMENDATION.

N.C.St. vs. Miami: I have the Wolfpack rated higher than the Hurricanes. They are also the underdogs in this contest. It doesn't hurt that St. coach O'Brien has always been  very good in the role of a road underdog at both Boston College and N.C.St.( 13-8 in that spot at Raleigh). N.C.ST. IS THE RECOMMENDATION.

Duke vs. Wake Forest: Both teams are prolific at passing the ball with good, experienced QBs(Price and Renfroe) leading the way. Neither team has a particularly strong defense. OVER THE TOTALS IS THE RECOMMENDATION.

#CollegeEdge Picks #Hawaii-#BYU: #TheRecommendation

Two inexperienced quarterbacks will get the starts in tonight's Hawaii-BYU game. Both teams have only 1.5 starters back on each offensive line, and neither team has a better than average running game.
I really like BYU's defense and don't expect Hawaii to have great success tonight, offensively. I am not as confident in Hawaii's defense, but, I am counting on BYU's inexperience to keep the Cougar score relatively low. I'm expecting a BYU win, probably in the neighborhood of 35-10.
THE RECOMMENDATION IN TONIGHT'S HAWAII-BYU CONTEST: UNDER THE TOTALS.

I like BYU to win the game handily tonight, but, I just can't give 25 points in a game most likely started by a freshman quarterback

#Anatomy of a Handicapped Game, The Results:Stanford at Washington

I WON!
So, why do I feel like I lost?
The answer is matchups like Stanford - Washington are the kind of games that test a handicapper's soul.
I had Washington rated higher than Stanford after the I updated the injury and statistical reports on both teams early in the week. Most times that would've been enough to make a recommendation on the Huskies. But, I kept coming back to that "friggin'" game Stanford played vs. USC. I thought the Cardinal played surprisingly good that day, particularly on defense. SO, I looked further into the PAC 10 matchup, and after asking my myself the five questions I referred to during my series on handicapping the game, I made the decision to stay away from a side.(WE DID GIVE OUT THE UNDER IN THE GAME AS A RECOMMENDATION).
Even though I felt my reasoning was sound to let Washington go as a side in the game, it hurt when the Washington Huskies not only covered, but, won their game, OUTRIGHT.
Consequently, because I put some much weight in my team ratings, it is a constant battle for this handicapper to decide when to, straight-up, go with what those ratings tell me, or, look further into the numbers.
Well, last night, I decided to look further into the numbers, and it probably resulted in my going 1-0 on the night instead of 2-0.
You know what: I'll come across the situation again, and when it does, I'll be tested all over again. I guess it's what makes all this so friggin' challenging.

#Anatomy of a Handicapped Game: #TheRecommendation(Stanford-Wash.)

Will Stanford run the ball on Washington? Yes
Will Stanford pass the ball on Washington? This is new starting QB Nunes' first game on the road, and he's without the top 3 receivers from last year's squad. Minimal success passing the ball.
Will Washington run the ball on Stanford? Probably not
Will Washington pass the ball on Stanford? If they move the ball tonight, it will have to be with the experienced QB Price leading the way. He'll have some success tonight, but, not enough to make me confident.
Which team has the emotional edge in tonight's contest? Washington's home for an ESPN, Thursday night game. They were also creamed by the Cardinal last year, 62-21. The emotional edge goes to the Huskies.

The Recommendation: See, what did I write you about my being a slave to my ratings? I have Washington rated higher than Stanford in my College Edge team ratings, but, when asking myself the key questions above, I've just come to the realization that Stanford has the better running game and the better defense. Even though I believe Washington has the edge at quarterback, and Stanford's QB Nunes is starting his first game on the road, I feel too queasy about the Huskies' running game and defense to give them out as a recommendation. No recommendation on a side in this Pac10 matchup.

Because QB Nunes is on the Pac10 road for the first time as a starter, and because I do believe Washington will have trouble both running and passing tonight, the College Edge RECOMMENDS THE UNDER( the totals) in tonight's exciting Pac10, ESPN, Thursday night matchup!

#Anatomy of a Handicapped Game Part III: #Stanford-#Washington

Sometimes I do all the preliminary work on a game( update injuries, stats, and ratings), and the ratings on each team tell me all I need to know. The Oregon St. pick over UCLA was an example of this type of conclusion. Oregon St. was the higher rated team. The Beavers were an overwhelming dog. They were my pick. No Doubts.
In the case of Stanford-Washington, my ratings aren't as clear. I have the Huskies rated higher than Stanford, but, I saw that friggin' game they played against USC. The Cardinal appeared to be pretty good in that game, even though I try not to let one game overly influence my views. In light of my doubt about my own ratings on this Thursday night matchup, I go to the next step of my handicapping process: the self-test.
Many of you have read about the five questions I ask myself when making my final decision, but, for those of you new to them, here they are:
1) Will Stanford run the ball on Washington?
2) Will Washington run the ball on Stanford?
3) Will Stanford pass the ball on Washington?
4)  Will Washington pass the ball on Stanford?
5) Does either team have an emotional edge in the game?
Here's what's cool about this part of handicapping a game. Often times, I like to leave my desk, go to a quiet place,or, while I'm driving somewhere, or, while I'm working, envision the game while asking myself these five questions.
Sometime tonight, or, while driving to work early tomorrow morning I will ask myself these questions. They will help me with my final conclusion. I'm admittedly leaning a certain way right now. Which team will I recommend?

The Anatomy of a Handicapped Game Part II: Stanford vs. Washington

Alright, I updated the stats on Washington's and Stanford's games, and, as mentioned, checked the injury reports.
Now, it's time to update the ratings on each team. I made no major adjustments on Stanford's College Edge team ratings. I assumed I would increase my numbers on the Cardinal's new starting QB, considering their 3-0 record, but, surprisingly, his stats were mediocre, at best.
No major adjustments were made on the Washington team ratings, but, they were lowered slightly with the prior mentioned injuries, and a small lowering of my numbers on the Huskies' starting QB, who had a decent game vs. SDSU, but, a bad game against LSU( not unusual; Tiger defense outstanding). Okay, time to add the adjusted ratings for each team.
I added up my Stanford numbers. Now, my own excitement builds as I add up my Washington numbers, and factor in that the Huskies are playing home, in a conference game. Which team do you think had the higher College Edge team rating?
The surprising answer: the Washington Huskies.
If you think that means Washington is the automatic recommendation, you are wrong. I absolutely respect the fact the Seattle team is rated higher than Stanford, but, I'm not a slave to my ratings. They are THE major tool in the handicapping process, but, not the be-all, end-all. What comes next in the handicapping process is sitting back, relaxing, and asking myself some key questions concerning the PAC 10 match-up. Those questions will be asked in Part III of "The Anatomy of a Handicapped Game...." Will the answers to those questions trump the fact I have Washington rated higher than Stanford? We'll see. I'm excited to find out myself!

The Anatomy of a Handicapped Game:#Stanford-#Wash:PartI

Stanford plays at Washington this Thursday, Sept. 27th. Here is my step-by-step approach in handicapping this important Pac10 contest(of course, any game I handicap is an important game).
I completed the ratings on each of these teams during the summer. My job now is to adjust those ratings to reflect what has happened to each team to date.
What I did tonight was check the injury status of each team's roster. What I found: Stanford has almost no issues on the injury front. Washington has lost wr Johnson, who caught 28 passes in '11, and rb Jesse Collier. Collier's loss is significant because the Huskies had already lost their 1500 yard-rusher from '11, Chris Polk, and have now lost their #2 rb as well. I haven't adjusted ratings yet, but, my feel is these injuries will lower Washington's ratings slightly.
I've mentioned on many occasions, I have hand-written stats I log for each game played( I have notebooks I've saved that go back 30+years). I have updated the stats for both the Cardinal and Huskie games, respectively. Without making any final judgements, it's obvious from the stats I've entered into my Temple, 200 page notebook , Stanford has been the more impressive team to date.
It's extremely early in the season, so my job now is to update the ratings, based on the information I've just gathered, and try not to be overly influenced by anything that's happened.
I'll be back during the week to update you on the anatomy of a handicapped game. In this case, the contest between Stanford-Washington.

#CollegeEdge Picks #Michigan- #NotreDame

Am I being stubborn? I think Notre Dame is overrated. It didn't show up last week in their game vs. MSU. I think part of the reason for the Irish success was the absolutely inept play of QB Maxwell. Notre Dame plays a much better QB tonight in Dennard Robinson.
N.D.'s offense was almost nonexistent last week, but, wasn't noticed because of the big win.
The higher rated team is getting points in this game, according to my College Edge team ratings.
The pick tonight is Michigan.

#CollegeEdge & #EdgySam pick #Cal-#USC

USC has some key injuries on defense, and is slowly suffering from lack of depth on that side of the ball. Cal has only 5 starters back on their defensive squad, and, in games played versus quality opponents, the Golden Bear "D" has left much to be desired.
On the offensive sides of the ball, both teams have returning quarterbacks, very good running backs, and talented receivers. Both teams should score in abundance.
I thought last week's USC game should have been an over the totals contest. It disappointingly was not. I feel even stronger this week it will be a high scoring game.
USC/California over the totals is the recommendation.

#CollegeEdge Picks #OregonSt at #UCLA

Two of UCLA's 3 wins were against Rice and Houston. Those decisive wins have inflated the line on this game. Oregon St is the higher rated team under my rating system and the Beavers should be the favorite.
Oregon St. is the pick!

#TheCollegeEdge Picks Three Early Games

In the early games, I'm going to go with three teams favored by double digit spreads. The similarity in all three games is the College Edge is going with teams that can score, but, also play good defense. In all three games, we're going against teams that have little abilty to score. With the exception of Maryland, we are also going against teams that have shown little abilty in playing defense.
We like Florida, West Virginia, and Ohio St. over Kentucky, Maryland, and UAB, respectively. In all three cases, I don't see how any of these teams can score enough to keep any of these games from being high scoring losses. In all three cases, the spreads are fairly high, so let's hope each of the high-powered offenses establish their dominance early.
An interesting side note to each of these games: all three lines have come down. I usually like it when the public is against me. Let's see if it's a good omen in these contests.
Call 267-752-3343 at 11:45a.m., for the day's phone schedule, a synopsis of most of the early games, and some possible late recommendations.

#CollegeEdge Picks #BYU-#BoiseSt

I'm taking my handicapping life in my hands when I decide to go against the Boise St Broncos( aw crap, they're  home, too), but, that's what I'm doing tonight as I select the BYU Cougars to get the cover in tonight's ESPN matchup.
BYU has the more experienced QB, and the more experienced, and yes, better defense. Boise St. is dangerous tonight, but, they have a new starter at QB( he leads a total of only 4 starters back on offense), and a very inexperienced defense, with only 3 starters returning from the '11 squad.
Under my College Edge team ratings, I have BYU rated higher than Boise St., and, I get the bonus of getting points.
You have to have guts to go with what your work tells you, and, my work tells me the right side tonight are the BYU Cougars.
( I was a little worried how BYU might play after playing rival Utah last week, but, in games after the Utah game, BYU is 2-0 vs. the spread and straight-up. In 3 of those years, the Utah game was the last game of the year)

An Early #CollegeEdge Pick for #KentSt-#Buffalo

Just finished the work on Kent St. vs. Buffalo and anxious to release this game now!
Buffalo has the best offensive player on the field in RB Brandon Oliver(1444 yards rushing in '11). Buffalo has the best defensive player on the field in LB Khalil Mack. They also have that magical number of 4 starting offensive line starters back. An extra bonus in this pick is I have the Bulls rated decently higher than their MAC opponents under my rating system.
Look, Kent St. has a decent amount of starters back too, and usually plays pretty good defense, but, RB Oliver of Buffalo gained 111 yards vs. Georgia. I believe he'll do better against his MAC opponent.
As most of you have who followed me through the years knows, I very rarely work the MAC Conference when they play their BCS-level opponents. The talent level just doesn't match up when they step up in class. I absolutely enjoy working the MAC Conference games when the teams are playing each other because the athletes each team recruits are about the same.
In my first MAC Conference pick of 2012, I'm taking Buffalo. If the spread is -3.5, I would buy the 1/2 point.

#CollegeEdge: Our Comp MLB Picks for Tuesday

Edgysam does one form of handicapping only: college football. But, I have an NFL and MLB guru in Greg, who went 3-2 during the weekend in the NFL, and since Sept. 10th is +$302.00 for our theoretical $100.00 player in MLB.
We have a revised offer that we feel is pretty exciting and very affordable, and which we will post at all of our venues tomorrow and which will include both the NFL and MLB. Stay tuned for it.

Tonight, do as I do every time Greg sends me his picks: enjoy his selections! Here they are:

Oakland over Detroit
TampaBay over Boston Red Sox
San Diego over Arizona
In all games, go with the pitchers originally scheduled.

#CollegeEdge Picks(and Pans)Week3: PartIII

Utah over BYU: Sometimes you just think yourself right out of a pick. I had the Utes in a lean, another team I had as a higher rated team on Saturday, and getting points, a usually great situation. I kept it from being a recommendation because Jordan Wynn, Utah's starting QB, had a career-ending shoulder injury. Even though they had a capable backup, I was wary of how his teammates would react to that major of an injury to a teammate, and I remembered BYU got their butts kicked the prior year by Utah, 54-10. Revenge in the "Holy War," was a primary consideration. So, did I overreact? Darn right I did.

#CollegeEdge Week3 Picks(and Pans): Part II

UConn over Maryland: I went to sleep Friday night pretty sure I had no interest in game. Huskies a road favorite, with a sub-par QB. I have to work my real-life job on Saturdays. I decided while working, to re-consider this contest. I have this process I go through while handicapping games where I ask myself the following questions( I had already worked this game Friday night, so didn't need my books). I applied it to UConn-Mary. Will UConn run the ball on Mary.(relatively)? Will UConn pass the ball on Mary.(No)? Will Mary. run the ball on UConn(No)? Will Mary. pass the ball on UConn(No)? Who has the better incentives in the game?
UConn became a recommendation because I thought they'd have relative success running the ball, they had the slightly better defense, and the Huskies had the clear incentive advantage in the game.Coach Edsall of Mary. left his UConn job immediately after their Fiesta Bowl loss to Oklahoma and never said goodbye to his players. There were some -2.5s out there and that's the line I got. I hope it's the line you got, and not a -3, which would have produced a Push. I'd pick UConn again!

UConn/Maryland under the totals: 2 rotten offenses vs. 2 pretty good defenses are good reasons to go under. 395 total yards in game should have gotten me the cover. It didn't.

B.C. over Northwestern: Eagles have 17 starters back from last year, including a returning starter at QB. Okay, QB Rettig's career has been mediocre, but, he is a multiple-year starter, and BC brought in a new Offensive Coordinator who is supposed to be a QB developer. Also, Northwestern, came into the game as a favorite, first time this year, so I thought everything was set up nice for the Eagles. Most disappointing loss of the week

Stanford over USC: I leaned Cardinal, but, I guess I allowed USC hype, and serious revenge motives for Trojans to trump the fact I had Stanford rated higher than USC. Trust your ratings?

Stanford/USC over the totals: Surprised how many injuries USC had on defense, and, supposed proficiency of Trojan offense, led to lean, but, not recommendation on the over. I'd probably do it again, but, was surprised by how physical Stanford played. Don't expect that from a West Coast team.

MSU over Notre Dame: Defense and RB Bell were my reasons for MSU recommendation. After all, that supposed good D was playing a freshman QB. Spartan QB was so bad, however, I never felt my pick had a chance.

My Week 3 Picks(and Pans). A Review

USF over Rutgers: In week2, I went with USF over Nevada, and, QB BJ Daniels came through for me. But, when you're dealing with Daniels, you go into each USF recommendation knowing as Daniels goes, so go the chances of your recommendation. The 4-yr-starter came up real small for me vs. Rutgers.

FSU over Wake: I leaned Seminoles, and said on phone line I thought they'd romp over Deacons. I kept it from being a recommendation because of my fear of back-door cover by expd. Wake QB Tanner Price. Fear unfounded.

Pitt over V.T.: I had Pitt rated higher than V.T., therefore, my lean to Panthers. Thursday night loss to Cincy was too scary to give them out as recommendation. Lesson: don't give much excessive credibility to early season performances.

Army over No.Illinois: I really like service academies that have a returning starter at QB. Steelman is a 4-yr. starter. The Huskies had a slew of starters back on defense, hence the Cadet lean, but not recommendation. I will come back to Army during the year.

Ohio St. over Cal.: I had Buckeyes rated much higher than Golden Bears, therefore my lean to the well-coached Big10 representative. My respect for Cal's coach Tedford, experience at the QB and RB positions, and the quality of Cal's recruits kept it from a recommendation.

Time to eat dinner. More to come in next blog.

#CollegeEdge Picks #UConn-#Maryland

Both teams have young, sub-standard QBs(UConn's Whitmer is a soph; Mary.'s Hills is a freshman); both teams have an average to below average running attack; both teams have pretty good defenses. Both teams, especially UConn, should play to their capabilities, as Edsall hosts the team he unceremoniously left following the Huskies' loss to Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl.
In the most interesting match-up of the early games, I like the under in the UConn-Maryland game, even though the totals line is one of the lowest I've seen in FBS play.
Call at 11:45a.m. at 267-752-3343 for more potential, early recommendations.

#CollegeEdge Looks at #WSU vs. #UNLV

Coach Mike Leach is one of my favorite coaches of all time. I believe he did a great job at Texas Tech, and will do a great job at WSU. I just believe he has work to do, and I won't allow my admiration for Leach's ability as a coach cloud my vision as to the hard work he has yet to do at Wash. St.
The Cougars are without their starting QB tonight, and there is absolutely no part of the team I trust to get the job done vs. UNLV, or, for the time being, any other team on the WSU schedule. I'm willing to sit back and see if Leach's squad attains any particular personality as the season progresses. Consequently, I can't take a team I know almost nothing about, as a road favorite, regardless of who the Cougs are playing.
UNLV has been plain horrible over the years, despite the fact you would assume the glitz of LasVegas would be a fantastic recruiting tool. It hasn't been. The Rebels lost last week to No.Arizona. How could anyone, myself included, give out UNLV under any circumstances? I can't!
This might be the first weeknight, ESPN game I will take a complete pass on, but, considering the quality of the game tonight, I will be happy to do so, and concentrate my efforts tonight on tomorrow's early games.

#Rutgers- #USF Pick Courtesy of #CollegeEdge

I just read a preview of the Rutgers-USF, Big East contest. It mentioned Rutgers tough defense. It mentioned the strong, early play of USF QB Daniels, a three-year starter, and the solid play of the offense Daniels leads. It also mentioned the weak offense that Rutgers will probably have tonight and for the season.
What they didn't mention is the vast difference tonight in coaching experience.
USF has a very good coach in Skip Holtz, with an experienced coaching staff on both the offensive and the defensive sides of the ball.
Rutgers lost a VERY GOOD coach in Schiano, and the Scarlet Knights ex-coach took many of his important assistants to the NFL. The new coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator have no experience at their respective positions, and they are playing their first "real" game of the year, and it's on the road.
Even with Schiano, this team would have had difficulty scoring tonight. Without him, that task will be even more difficult.
The pick tonight: USF Bulls.
The obvious pick tonight in the totals is the under. The totals line has been dropping. Sometimes the obvious is too obvious. I'll stay away from the over/under tonight.
Tomorrow: My main man, Mike Leach leads his WSU squad against UNLV. See you then!

The #EDGY #Awards: #CollegeEdge Week2 Honors

Most Surprising EDGY Award goes to the state of Arizona, as two teams the College Edge thought would suck this year, came out and destroyed their opponents. Arizona St. crushed an Illinois team without their starting QB, but, that should've been more competitive, and, the Rich Rodriquez-coached Arizona Wildcats blew out the road favorite, and last year's #2/#3 team, the Ok.St. Cowboys. As opposed to his stint in Michigan, Rodriquez may have found a nice home in Tucson.

Most Disappointing EDGY Award: Goes to Vanderbilt. I think coach Franklin is doing a nice job with the Commodores, but, it is so darn hard for bottom dwellers like Vandy to break out of that losing culture. The team loses a tough game to South Carolina, and then comes back Saturday to lose to Northwestern. It's a game Vandy should've won, and it'll be interesting to see whether the team comes back or spirals out of control.

Most Baffling EDGY Award: I went to Temple; I want Temple to win(and cover) every game; I've vowed never to recommend against my school; BUT: how the heck was Temple favored over Maryland? Maryland was in serious revenge after last year's blowout loss, the Terps had more returning starters, and Maryland has a coach in Randy Edsall who is one of the better spread coaches in college football.

Most Impressive EDGY Award: The Pac10 kicking butt out on the west coast almost won this EDGY award, but, the most impressive EDGY award goes to the team I picked to win the Big 12, the Kansas St. Wildcats. I picked KSU over Miami in one of my early recommendations because I thought the 'Cats were clearly better than the 'Canes. I did not believe they were THAT much better. KSU will be tough this year!

#CollegeEdge Comp. Picks:NFL and MLB! Now!

The College Edge and our MLB and NFL handicapper give out the following complimentary picks tonight:

MLB: Giants over Colorado( with starting pitchers listed)
          Padres over St.Louis( with starting pitchers listed)

NFL: Oakland Raiders

#CollegeEdge's Week 2 in College Football

The College Edge week got off to a disappointing start, as we went 0-3 on Thursday and Friday nights. We kicked it off taking the Pitt Panthers over Cincinnati and the over in the same game. Our three-pick slide continued Friday with a relatively tough loss when we took Utah over Utah St.( Utes scored in OT, but, the TD was disallowed on an interference, AFTER, I celebrated, loudly).
If you're interested in knowing what a pressure-packed situation is in handicapping, it's going into a college football Saturday, 0-3.
While tempted to maybe hold back on some picks, we gave out every pick we worked on, and man, did we respond.
It started with the Noon picks, and my proudest of those was my KSU win over Miami. Bill Snyder, arguably the greatest college coach of all time, did it again for me. We had nervous moments in the Auburn-MissSt under the totals pick, but, that won, and, depending on what line you received, +3 or +3.5, our UConn selection was either a win, or, a push. Edgysam got a push.
Our next set of picks came at 4:00p.m., and we again had two winners. We went with Wake Forest(expd. QB and a coach who is great as a home-dog) and USF. Both games were trending negatively at times, but, both came through, big-time!
Our next play was in a SEC/Big 12 intersectional contest(at least, that's what it should have been had one of the two teams involved appreciated the traditions and strength of the conference they just left). We took the same team we gave out as our national title champ in the first week, the Georgia Bulldogs.
Despite suspensions, it was EdgySam's feeling that the Bulldog offense was still very strong, and their interior front seven on defense was still an outstanding unit. The Dawgs pulled away in the second half to win 41-20.
We lost our final recommendation of the day, when we picked and lost on Illinois. Much to my regret, the site I use for injury reports had QB Scheelhause as questionable. He did not play. Whether I would've picked that game differently had I known, prior to releasing Illinois, that their QB was hurt is something I cannot answer. What I can say is, despite going 5-0 going into that game, and possibly going undefeated on the day, I went to sleep disgusted.
What made the day even better were the teams and plays I mentioned on my phone line that I didn't feel were quite there for recommendations, but, were worth smaller investments. THEY ALL WON!
Those smaller recommendations were:
Maryland(could not figure out how my school was a 10-point favorite)
South Carolina
UCF
FresnoSt
It was nice day for the CollegeEdge and EdgySam, and it was one disappointing loss away from being an undefeated one!

#CollegeEdge Handicaps #Illinois-ASU

Why did the Arizona St. line move from -2 to -6? The Wildcats have a new, freshman QB, they lost an all-Pac10 center from the '11 team, and despite the return of a 1000 yard-rusher, they have less than 1 starter back in the receiving corps.
A poor SunDevil, 2011 defense returns only 4 starters, and I don't consider any of those 4 returnees above average at their respective positions.
Illinois has an experienced QB in Scheelhause, and the much better defense.
My ratings tell me the wrong team is favored.
Illinois is the last pick of what has been a pretty good handicapping day!!!!

#WhataDay: First, it's Georgia vs. Missouri

Despite the suspensions, the Bulldogs still have a great QB in Murray, an emerging star at RB Marshall, and a nice receiving corps. They still have a tremendous interior defense, with a returning Lb in Jones who had an incredible 13.5 sacks in '11!
Missouri is missing important players, too, including 1500 yard-rusher, Henry Josey., and two offensive linemen.
And, let's not forget the Bulldogs represent the SEC. That's worth points by itself.(Also, coach Richt good as a road favorite.
Georgia's the pick, and, here's hoping the Tigers get their hides handed to them tonight.

#CollegeEdge's Pick in Miami-KSU Contest

I have two of my favorite coaches going in this game. Al Golden, coach of Miami's Hurricanes, turned around my Temple Owls, and I will always be grateful to him for what many considered an impossible task. Coach Bill Snyder, probably my favorite college coach of all time, has led his KSU program from the absolute depths of college football. There might be an argument that Snyder turned around THE worst college football program into one of the better programs in the FBS.
With that as background, I am really looking forward to this 12:00 game tomorrow.
Miami had a surprisingly effective game last week vs. Boston College. I don't think they'll repeat that effort tomorrow at one of the toughest venues in which a visiting team has to play, Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, Kansas( no coach deserves to have a stadium named after him more).
KSU has a two-way threat at QB in Klein, a formidable running game, 3.5 starters back in the receiving corps and 7 starters back on defense.
Despite the Hurricane win last week, they are inexperienced at QB and at the rest of their offense, and, more importantly, I believe they are inexperienced on defense, which will be costly in that they are playing against a QB that can beat you with both his running(Klein gained 1440 yards rushing last year!) and passing.
The Kansas State Wildcats are the pick.

#CollegeEdge Handicaps #N.C.St vs. #UConn

As I mention on many occasions, I try to do ratings on every FBS team. I start those rartings in early July. I estimate I spend about 40 minutes per team. Do the math, and you'll see I put in about 75 hours on my ratings leading up to the season.
Ratings are one of the key tools I use when I handicap a game.
In tomorrow's contest between N.C.St and Connecticut, my ratings on each team are a big factor in my selection. UConn is the higher rated team , according to my rating system, and as an extra bonus, they are at home as an underdog.
If UConn wins tomorrow it will have to be with a solid running game, which they can accomplish with 1000 yard-rusher McCoombs, minimal mistakes from young QB Whitmer, and a tough defense, which they are capable of playing with 8+ returning starters on defense.
Other factors I hope are in my favor are the facts coach O'Brien is very good as a coach "against the spread," but, not so as an away favorite. He's rarely put in that role, and when he has been at N.C.St, he's 0-4 in that spot. Conversely, coach Pasqualoni of UConn, in his previous coaching role at Syracuse, was one of the top spread coaches of his time. In his second year at UConn, I'm hoping, and expecting, similar spread results.
I'm taking the higher rated team, and the squad that comes into this game as a home underdog: the UConn Huskies!

#CollegeEdge Picks #Utah-UtahSt. Contest

Utah has an experienced returning offense, with an experienced QB in Jordan Wynn to handle the pressures of a hostile road environment. USU lost over 2000 yards in rushing yards from last year(Turlin: 1517; Smith 870) and a #2 Draft Choice at the LB position. 1st team WAC LB Wagner had 147 tackles last year! Aggies are also without the other effective QB coach Anderson uses, Adam Kennedy. He's suspended and his loss will also be felt( he threw for 970 yards, 11 tds.and a 69% completion rate in '11, and is considered the more pure passer in contrast to the talented Keeton). I don't think a USU will overcome those losses when playing a talented team like Utah.
Utah's Utes are the pick.
For those interested, if Noon picks tomorrow aren't listed here later tonight, call 267-752-3343 at 11:45a.m., Saturday morning for my complimentary selections.

#TheCollegeEdge: #Pitt vs.#Cincy Picks

Take the Pitt Panthers to cover over Cincy Bearcats: Since neither defense is that dominant, I'm taking the team with the much more experienced offense, the Panthers, led by running back, Ray Graham.

Take the over in the same game. These mediocre defenses will be scored upon.

How the #CollegeEdge Approaches its Weekly Picks

Last year, the College Edge made a significant decision: no longer would yours truly try to work every stinking game on the schedule. In years past, I'd see how many games were on the schedule. If there were 35 games, I might eliminate five of those games to handicap. I would then attempt to handicap every one of those remaining games. God forbid I missed a game! By the Saturday night of each week, I'd be mentally and physically exhausted. I decided my approach to each new week of handicapped games had to change. This is how it happened.
In 2011, I decided I would give my total attention to each of the weeknight games that kick off  each week of college football games. If there was a Wednesday night game scheduled, I worked it. If there were two Thursday night games scheduled, I worked them. If a Friday night ESPN game capped off the weeknight activity, I gave it my handicapping attention.
I would then try to finish all of the early games scheduled for the upcoming Saturday before going to sleep on Friday night. As most of you know, the Noon time slot on Saturdays is peppered with 5 to 7 scheduled games. My goal each week is to complete those games.
Then, my goal for the rest of college football Saturday is to attempt to work one game per hour. If games are scheduled at 1:00p.m.(an unusual start time), I try to work one of them; if games are scheduled at 2:00p.m., I try to work one of them; if a game is scheduled in the 3:00p.m. time slot, I try to work it. And so on it goes throughout a Saturday schedule. The key word in these previous sentences is "try." If  I have the time to work those games, I do so. If I don't, the handicapping world does not come to an end like it did in previous years.
Lat year, I can recall Saturdays where 5 games may have scheduled for a particular time slot. I have ratings and stats ready for each of those games. What game do I choose to handicap? I'd simply put the games in a proverbial hat and randomly pick the game I'd work on. It was fun. It was relaxing. I didn't favor one game over another to work on. And, it worked.
I had the best year I ever had for my clients, going 46-17 during the regular season. I will approach each week's schedule this year in the same way.

#FresnoSt.#Bulldogs Evaluated by the #46-17#CollegeEdge

As a handicapper and, as a fan, Pat Hill was one of my favorite coaches. His philosophy was he'd play any team in the nation, anywhere. And, he was successful with that game plan.
Then in 2005, in a game vs. #1 USC, Pat Hill and his tough Fresno St. team were a couple of big plays away from pulling off one of the legendary upsets in college football history. It wasn't to be as the Bulldogs lost in the most heartbreaking way possible. I remember that game vividly and I feel Pat Hill remembered that loss clearly as well, because, in my opinion, since that tough loss, Pat Hill's gutsy career at Fresno was never the same.
Again, from a handicapper's standpoint, Hill was one of my most reliable coaches. After that 2005 season, Hill went a collective 22-39 vs. the spread, and, finally, after a nice 15-year career with the 'Dogs, was let go after a 4-9 record in '11. I hate to admit his firing was probably the right move.
This year Tim DeRuyter takes over in his first stint as a full-time head coach(he was an interim coach for A&M in that team's bowl game in '11). The new coach was left well-stocked by the outgoing Pat Hill.
He has a QB in Derek Carr(David's Bro) who had terrific numbers as a starter last year: 26-9 Td/Int ratio, 62.6% completion rate; an outstanding RB in Robbie Rouse(1500 yards rushing in '11!) and a serviceable offensive line( 3.5 starters return).
The defense has 7 starters back, but, even more importantly, among those returnees is a tremendous leader in #1 tackler and all-league performer LB Travis Brown.
That means the new coach  has the luxury of an experienced leader on both sides of the ball. Despite DeRuyter's status as a new coach, I believe he's been put in a good spot and could have a very good year.

#Kansas#Jayhawks(FBS) Evaluated by the #CollegeEdge

There are some interesting angles to the Kansas program this year. The most interesting will be how well Charlie Weis does as the new coach. He brings NFL defensive coordinator, Dave Campo, to Kansas in that same role, and I'm extremely interested to see how an NFL-trained coach does in a new college role. A third point of interest in following a Jayhawk team that was absolutely horrible last year is the possible insertion of Crist at QB. Crist transferred from Notre Dame, where he started 10 games, and entered the Irish program as the #5 rated QB from his HS class.
All that being written, these new additions to the program will likely be in for a very tough year. The bad '11 offense returns only 6 starters, the horrific defense returns 7 starters(worst "D" in FBS last year?), and it's hard to find one starter on either side of the line who could be a standout contributor. It's incomprehensible that a team that gave up 43 points per game, 5.8 yards per carry and almost a 70% completion rate in '11 can do much to avoid getting its butt kicked in '12.
It'll be a tough year for NFLers Weis and Campo.

#ColoradoSt. #Rams Evaluated by the #CollegeEdge

From a handicapper's point of view, Sonny Lubick's Colorado St. program was one of the most reliable in college football. He did a terrific job in Fort Collins. Then, that dependable program seemed to just disappear. They had an uncustomary losing season in 2004 under Lubick, and, haven't had a winning season since. It continues to be one of the more baffling disappearing acts I've seen in all the years I've followed the sport.
Enter new coach, Jim McElwain. He's the former Off. Coordinator of Alabama, holding that position from '08 thru '11. CSU, and yours truly, hope that Tide pedigree will help turn the Ram program around. If McElwain does turn the program around, yo, it will be difficult, at least in this introductory season.
He has an 1100 yard-rusher back , and two all-league performers at center and OLB, respectively. That's about it. I see no way out of football limbo for the McElwain and his CSU team. He has a red-shirt freshman starting at QB, and sub-par, recruited talent at almost all positions.
I don't see how the Rams will score, nor, how they will stop any of their opponents. Unfortunately, that's a bad combination, no matter who is coaching.

#IowaState#Cyclones Evaluated by the #46-17 #CollegeEdge

In coach Paul Rhoads first year at ISU, he beat Nebraska; in his second year his Cyclones beat Texas Tech, Texas, and lost to Nebraska in OT, 30-31; in 2011, he upset Iowa, UConn, Texas Tech, and in the season's finalist for game of the year, his Ames, Iowa squad posted this still unbelievable score: ISU: 37 Oklahoma St. 31!
Rhoads had a nice 8-yr. run at Pitt as a defensive coordinator. He got the job at ISU in 2009, and, in my opinion is pointing his Big 12 program in the right direction.
Rhoads lost some key starters from '11, including two all-league performers in the offensive line, two very efficient defensive ends, and two, all-league performers in the defensive backfield. Those losses will be costly, but, because I have developed a like for Rhoads and his staff, I do believe he can get something out of the players that are returning from '11.
He has his two-headed combo back at QB, he has three offensive-line starters back, three junior RBs back after all three split starting  time as sophs, and quite possibly, one of the strongest linebacking crews in the Big12. Their two all-league stars combined for 230 tackles in '11!
I'm not going to fall crazy in love with coach Paul Rhoads just yet. He has a lot of question marks on his ISU team and this team could go south very quickly, but, I am mostly optimistic about this team, and you and I will find out a lot about the 'Clones after two tough opening games vs. Tulsa and Iowa.

#BoiseSt. #Broncos(FBS) Evaluated by the #CollegeEdge

Boise St. loses their 4-yr. starter at QB in the terrific Kellen Moore; they lose a 1200+ yard rusher who was also a #1 DC, and the #1 receiver as well. On defense, they have less than 1 starter back in the front seven.
When I look at those losses, I would normally salivate at the opportunity to go-against a team like the Broncos. But, coach Petersen has done such a great job at Boise, I wonder if they are now in the category of those elite programs that simply re-load, no matter how many starters are lost.
The Broncos play MSU and BYU in the first three weeks of the season. I'll use those games to determine if Boise is its normal dominant self. My instincts tell me I will look for good spots to go-against this lightly experienced team.

#Baylor #Bears(FBS) Evaluated by the #CollegeEdge

Check out these stats: 906 yards rushing; 4300 yards passing; 10.7 per pass att.; 37-6 td/int ratio; 72% completion rate. If you want to get a clue how successful Baylor will be this year, explain to me how the Bears will come close to replacing these unbelievable numbers posted by graduated QB, and great team leader, Robert Griffin III? Those numbers will not be replaced.
Add to these lost stats and leadership, the departure of 1500 yard-rusher Terrance Ganaway and #1 draft choice, wr Kendal Wright( 108 reception & 14 Tds!),and, you have a Baylor team which should suffer some major transitional stress.
Theoretically, you would ask Baylor's defense to step up, since that side of the ball has 8 starters back from the '11 team. Problem is, in my handicapping lifetime, I can never remember a Bear defense playing good , and, I don't think they'll start this year. Yo, last year, they gave up 200 yards rushing per game, and allowed opposing QBs to complete passes at a 63.6% percent rate. I'd be surprised by decided improvement this year.
One more thing: Griffin was injured in game 3 of 2009. They were 2-1 at the time of his injury. They went 2-7 the rest of the way. Nuff said.

What Does #46-17 Mean to the #CollegeEdge?

Last year my clients(heretofore known as my "cleeps") signed up for my college football, regular season package. It included all games not played on Saturdays during the FBS season( all of my Saturday plays were complimentary).
My record for my cleeps during that '11 season was a stellar 46-17! Since I don't expect anyone to tout my record for me, I try to refer to that record as much as possible, including the headlines of the team summaries I'm now working on. By the way, my record on complimentary Saturdays was outstanding as well.
So, now you know what 46-17 means to the College Edge.
Next team in line for a College Edge evaluation: the Baylor Bears.

#AirForce #Falcons Evaluated by the #46-17 #CollegeEdge

The Air Force Academy lost a 4-yr. starter at QB(Tim Jefferson), an 1100 yard-rusher, and 3 starting offensive linemen. You know what: they will still have one of the nation's premier rush attacks, and high scoring offenses. The option offense they run will still be a well-oiled machine. It's run with great military discipline, and, is an offense rarely seen by Falcon opponents.
On the other hand, Air Force's defense will give up a lot of yards this year. Unlike the offense, where experience isn't always a necessary ingredient, returning starters are important for a service academy. They simply lack size and talent, and many times veteran leaders can make up for the talent gap. Well, this year's Falcon defense not only lacks size and skill, they also lack experience. Only 3 starters return from last year's defense,and that "D" gave up 220 yards-rushing, and a 62% completion rate last year.
The AirForce has a very good coach in Troy Calhoun. The sparseness of returning starters would almost certainly doom any other college program, but, what I've learned in the past from service academies is few returning starters does not always translate to a bad year in the win/loss column.
I will call for a team that will be involved in many high-scoring games and I'll be patient with the Falcons and see how they perform in early games vs. UNLV and Colorado St. I am prepared to be surprised by unexpected successes.

#TexasA&M #Aggies Evaluated by the 46-17 #CollegeEdge

I think Mike Sherman did a decent job at Texas A&M and thought he was unfairly fired from his job. Consequently, I want the Aggies to get their butts kicked when they play in the SEC. Of course, the bigger reason I look forward to their undoing is A&M left a very strong, traditional Big-12 to seek greener pastures(?) in the SEC. I will probably hate the Aggie program for years to come for deserting the league that was practically the SEC's equal last year.
I won't let that hatred cloud my judgement of A&M. I hope.
Inexperience at the QB position should lead to a difficult transitional year for A&M. They lose a #1 draft choice at that position( surprisingly, I don't think that's going to be a Giant loss. QB Tanneyhill did throw 15 interceptions), and plan to start a freshman. I just don't think the Aggies will get away with a fr.QB in the SEC. So, despite 4 offensive linemen back, and serviceable returnees at the talent positions, I don't foresee smooth offense for A&M.
Defensively, they lose 5 all-league performers from their '11 squad, including two-300 pound interior linemen who were the strength of last year's team. Some decent defenders return(LB Porter was a 1st team Big12 who had 9 sacks last year), but, losing 5 all-leaguers is a bad omen for a team entering the nation's best conference.
I think the coaching at A&M will be top notch, as Kevin Sumlin leaves one Texas school(Houston), for another. I just think a new coach normally has transitional problems in his first year at a new program. My hope is Sumlin has trouble this year, and for years to come. I want them to regret the day they decided to leave the Big12 for the SEC.
If A&M has trouble in their first game vs. an underrated LaTech team, oh boy will this be a bad year for them. I can only hope!

#UTEP #MINERS Evaluated by the 46-17 #CollegeEdge

UTEP plays Oklahoma and Wisconsin by Sept. 22nd of this upcoming season. If the Miners can survive the thrashing they will probably take in those two games, both mentally and, more importantly, physically, I believe the Miners should be pretty good when they play their CUSA schedule.
Veteran coach Mike Price, in his 9th year with the school, has a returning QB in Lamaison, a nice receiving corps, and a veteran offensive line( 4 of 5 starters return). The RB position is relatively sparse, but, Price has done a very good job of coming up with very productive RBs at ElPaso, and I believe he'll do the same this year.
Okay, his defense can be scary- they gave up 30 points per game in '11- but, they do have 7 starters back, including experience in every defensive category, and that might be enough to make them more than just competitive in Conference USA.
The wild card for this team might be their strong special teams play. I'll give extra points to a head coach who has consistently good special teams. You would never expect a forgotten Texas team like UTEP to have cosistently good ST play, but, that's exactly what Price produces almost every year.It's a sign of a well-coached team.
I won't call UTEP a go-with team, but, they are well worth watching in '12.

#MississippiState #Bulldogs(FBS) Evaluated by the #CollegeEdge

I like the head coach of the Miss.St. Bulldogs, Dan Mullen. He's brought a consistently decent product to the field in his three years at the helm, and has won both of his bowl games in dominating fashion. That's no small feat at a previously moribund program.
He has no real stars at any position on offense, but, his formula on that side of the ball has been fairly successful: run the ball consistently and throw the ball infrequently, but, safely.
Despite the loss of #1 draft choice Fletcher Cox, Mullen has a decent corps of returning starters back on defense, including two, all-league performers. The most important quality of that defense is the fact the Bulldogs are starting to get highly rated recruits at all of the defensive positions.
Handicapping Angles: I will always consider an SEC team when it steps down in class. Particularly so, in the case of the Bulldogs, who have to fight and claw in every SEC game, and, unlike their league's elite, can't afford to let down when they play lesser competition...Also, Mullen's record vs. the spread in conference games is a decent 13-11. Not bad when you consider the competition.
Miss. St. plays Jackson St., Troy, So.Alabama, and Kentucky in four of their first five games. We may not have a feel for how good the Dogs are until they've played Tennessee in week 6.

#Tulsa #GoldenHurricane(FBS) Evaluated by the #CollegeEdge

Coach Blankenship had the luxury of a 3-yr. starter at QB in Kinne last year. That helped the coach navigate through his first real test as a head coach. This year Tulsa has a new starter at QB, albeit a pretty highly rated one in Cody Green, a transfer from Nebraska. I'm always hesitant to support a team that loses a good QB who has been the starter 3 or 4 years.
It will help Blankenship that he has good running backs returning(1650 total yards rushing), two, 2nd CUSAers at the wide receiver positions and 8 returning starters on defense, including three, all-league performers.
The Golden Hurricane have a new starter at QB, and a still young coach at the helm. For that reason, Tulsa's season, despite a strong corps of returning starters, will hinge on the play of QB Cody Green, or, whoever is chosen to play that position, and how well the young coach adapts to life without a 3-yr. starter at QB.It'll be fun to see how well the QB position performs in the opening contest vs. ISU.

#Mississippi #Rebels( FBS) Evaluated by the #CollegeEdge

You know, Houston Nutt was a pretty good coach at Arkansas. In fact, Nutt wasn't too bad in his first two years at Ole Miss. But, his last two years with Mississippi were atrocious. I really can't explain why. Did he lose interest somewhere along the way? Have the Rebels fallen so far since Eli Manning left, that even a pretty decent coach like Nutt can't get the job done? Whatever the reasons, Nutt is now gone, and I don't see much hope for this 2012 version of the Mississippi Rebels.
They have an inexperienced, new head coach; complete questionmarks at QB, O-Line and Running Back positions, and, absolutely no standouts at any of the defensive positions. This is bad news for a team that only scored 16 points per game on offense last year, and gave up 5.4 yards on the ground, 61% completions thru the air on defense. Wow!
Handicapping Angle: I hate to admit this, but, sometimes I get as pumped up about a team that I believe will be horrible as I do about a team I believe will be very good. Why? Predictabilty. The more predictable a team is, either good or bad, the more success you will have handicapping that team.
My bottom line on Mississippi is they will be horrible this year.

#SMU #Mustangs(FBS) Evaluated by the #CollegeEdge

SMU had 18 starters back in '11. I had high hopes for the Mustangs. It was one of the teams I recommended my people take to win the CUSA. It was one of the teams I recommended my people take the over on in terms games won in '11. They disappointed me on both counts. The Mustangs played far below their potential last year.
This year they have only 11 starters back, including only 1 offensive-line starter in '11. They do have 2x, 1st CUSA RB Line back(1224 yards rushing last year), a nice linebacking corps, and one of my favorite coaches in college football, June Jones.
Last year, Jones made one of the most unusual decisions of the year when he benched a very effective returning starter at QB, Kyle Padron, after the very first game vs. Texas A&M. To this day, I don't understand why he benched an Honorable Mention QB who started every game in '10, and who had a 60% completion rate and a 31-14 interception/TD ratio. It was more baffling because of the respect I have for Jones in his development of QBs.
I mention all this because it will be interesting to see how successful Jones will be with SMU's most probable starting QB this year. His name is Garrett Gilbert. Sound familiar? He was the #2 rated High School QB in his HS class, and started two years, disappointingly, for the Texas Longhorns. One of the best story lines of the year could be the job Jones does with the, up-to-now, disappointing career of this highly recruited athlete.
Because I like Jones so much, I will follow closely how well the Mustangs do early against Baylor, and Texas A&M to see if Jones can get back some of the magic I believe he's capable of creating.
Question for my readers: Am I overrating June Jones' coaching ability? Are there inherent advantages to coaching in Hawaii, the program Jones successfully led prior to SMU? What do you think?

#Rice #Owls Evaluated by the #CollegeEdge

It's as important to find teams that might be pretty bad as well as finding teams, like Georgia, that might be very good. Rice could be pretty bad this year.
I've always rooted for the Owls because they are a small school located in the talent rich state of Texas, and because they share a mascot with my school, Temple. Nevertheless, I think this could be a very trying year for Rice.
They have a mediocre, albeit returning, quarterback, little depth at the RB position, and only 1 starter back on the offensive line. That spells trouble. They have a nice corps of returning receivers, but, I'm pretty sure they will be a wasted commodity.
A pretty bad '11 defense returns only 5.5 starters. None are standouts, and, in fact, last year's two best defenders are gone.
If things were not bad enough, the Owls may have lost their most valuable asset from the '11 squad. Punter Kyle Martens averaged a net of 39.7 yards per punt! A team like Rice cannot afford the loss of any decent contributor, not to mention one of the country's best punters.
Handicapping angle: As much as I wish I could write otherwise, I think Rice should be a go-against team this year, particularly when they step up in class.

#Georgia #Bulldogs Evaluated by the #CollegeEdge

Georgia's Bulldogs are definite contenders for this year's national title. With the possible exception of Arkansas QB Wilson(I believe the Hog QB would've been the SEC's best if Bobby Petrino was back), the Dawgs' QB Murray is the SEC's best QB. They have talent at the skill positions, led by RB Isaiah Crowell, the #2 rated RB coming out of HS in Keith Marshall, and tremendous depth throughout the RB and receiver positions.
The defense was very good last year. They will probably be better this year, as 15 of the top 16 interior defenders return to a 4-3 alignment that gave up only 101 yards rushing per game in '11. The gift of riches continues in the defensive backfield as 3 of 4 starters return to a unit that had only 50.7% of passes completed against them last year.
If it wasn't for that darn little complication of graduation, this team could've been a favorite in the SEC and the BCS. The one unit that could cause Georgia problems is the offensive line. Two All-Americans graduated from the center and left tackle positions, respectively, and the right tackle, a #7 draft choice, left as well. That's a dangerous amount of experience gone from such an important unit. Still, at 12-1 odds, and with a relatively easy schedule, Georgia is worth a very long look as BCS champ.
Handicapping angle: My fear is the linemakers know what I know concerning how good Georgia can be this year. The early lines will probably reflect that fact. So, even though I believe they will be a go-with team, be careful to avoid inflated lines involving the Dawgs.

#Houston #Cougars evaluated by #TheCollegeEdge

The architect of the explosive Houston Cougar offense, coach Kevin Sumlin, has moved on to Texas A&M. The triggerman of that offense, 4-yr. starter Case Keenum, has graduated. The recipient of that offense's largesse, the wide receivers, are all gone. Those receivers represented 43 receiving TDs! They do have a decent returning RB in Sims, but, they've lost most of the great depth they had last year at that position.
On defense, they lose 2 all-conference linebackers. They leave 16 sacks and 230 tackles behind! In my opinion, no outstanding defenders return from last year's decent defense.
Combine these tremendous losses with a coaching staff that has little experience(new head coach Tony Levine, has no HC experience, and was not a defensive or offensive coordinator, but, was promoted from his post as Special Teams coach), and '12 could prove to be a difficult one for the Cougars.
My hope is they blow-out Texas St.(who?) in the opener, and come into LaTech's game with an inflated opinion of themselves. Look to go against Houston this year.

#Auburn #Tigers evaluated by #TheCollegeEdge

In 2010, when Gene Chizik and his Auburn Tigers won the National Title, I firmly believed Chizik was a complete product of a lucky find in QB Cam Newton, and, consequently, went along for the ride of his life in seeing his Tigers win it all.
Then last year, with a new QB, an almost completely rebuilt offensive line, an almost completely new receiving corps, and only 3.5 starters back on defense, I was thoroughly convinced Auburn would get their butts kicked throughout the '11 season. It didn't happen. They admittedly had some bad losses, but, they went 4-4 in the SEC( wins vs. Fla. and So.Caro), and defeated Virginia fairly easily in the Chick-fil-A bowl game. I believe Chizik did a better job last year with nothing back, then he did in Auburn's momentous, championship season.
Auburn's offense will be serviceable with a new QB, albeit a highly rated one in Frazier, and decent talent at the other areas of the offense.
Chizik, who made his rep on the defensive side of the ball, will see the strength of his team on that side of the ball. They have 9 starters back on defense, including all of the two-deep on the defensive line, and, both cornerbacks.
Gene Chizik did such a good job with his team last year, I have to give his squad a decent chance to have another pretty good team this year. Here is Chizik's problem: he may have a better team this year and his record may not show it. They play Clemson, Miss St., LSU, and Arkansas in four of the first five games on their schedule. If they can go 3-2 in their first five games, this could be a pretty good year for Chizik and the Auburn Tigers.

#MarshallThunderingHerd evaluated by #TheCollege-edge

Philadelphia Eagles fans probably know very little about #Marshall, right? Even though the Birds drafted the #ThunderingHerd's best player in '11, defensive end Vince Curry, I still can assure you most Eagles fans don't even know Curry played for #Marshall. Well, I know that he did play for the CUSA squad, and I do believe his loss will affect Marshall this year. A team with a limited amount of highly rated recruits can't help but be affected by the loss of a #2 draft choice. What's more troubling for the Herd defense is that they also lose two all-CUSA linebackers. Expect high scoring affairs when #Marshall plays this year. They gave up 28.5 points per game with Curry.  What will they give up without him?
Marshall might still be able to outscore some opponents because of the strong(for a CUSA team) offense that returns. Eight starters are back on that side of the ball, including a decent returnee at QB(Cato), a decent O-Line(3 starters), and a nice nucleus of receivers. The part of this team that could elevate #Marshall to the upper echelon of the CUSA is their positive potential at RB. This program that produced Ahmad Bradshaw and Darius Marshall in recent years, has two good running backs returning. The real wild card that could elevate Marshall is the arrival of the 27th rated RB out of HS in '10, Miami transfer, freshman Kevin Grooms. If he runs with the same success as Bradshaw and Marshall, the Herd may warrant more of a look as the season progresses.
Marshall fans: don't be discouraged by the beating you will probably take in your opening game versus West Virginia. I think you'll be competitive in the CUSA.

The College-edge evaluates the Florida Gators

The Florida Gators will have a tremendous defense this year. They have 9 starters back , including all four D-backs, and the top six linebackers. Let's not forget that their head coach, Will Muschamp, made his rep as as a very good defensive coordinator, so, I have little doubt that the Gator defense will give almost all their opponents trouble. (I will mention now that I also have doubts about Muschamp as a head coach. His success as an outstanding D-Coordinator may not mean he can handle the pressure-cooker the Florida head coach will always face).
It's their offense that I think prevents them from being a national contender. They have a pretty strong offensive line( four starters back), but, new starters at the running back positions( they lost versatile RBs in Demps and Rainey) and at QB, and, a fairly weak returning, receiving corps make the Gators an SEC question mark.
Keep in mind, the Gators still recruit great athletes(e.g.their projected starter at QB, Jeff Driskel, was the #1 QB recruit his senior year in HS), and will overpower their weaker opponents( I hope they, and every other SEC team kicks A&M's butt. The Gators play them Sept.8th). I just think their inexperienced offense will cost them in the SEC East and in the national title picture.
Their game against an under-rated Tennessee squad on Sept. 15th will be an important indicator for Gator success in 2012.

College Team Evaluations Start Tonight!

I have completed 16 college football FBS, team ratings. I hope to write a short piece on all of the approximately 110 teams I will eventually work on. I spend about 40 minutes per team, but, will be short and succinct in my team evaluations.
The time I devote to each FBS program will result in each team's College-Edge rating. Though these ratings change on an almost weekly basis during the year, the approximately 75 hours of work I put in during the summer prepare me confidently for the upcoming season and for the short team evaluations that are coming at collegeedge.blogspot.com.
Feel free to respond to what I write, whether it's in agreement, or, to crticize.
I will start with the Florida Gators. I will then write about a team from a weak league, probably the WAC, then skip back to SEC, then back to the weaker league, and, so on. I think it's as important to know about the teams from weak leagues, as it is to write about teams from the elite leagues.
My communication with my valued readers starts tonight. It will include this blogging address; twitter(twitter.com/edgysam); and phillyrhymetime.com. I am exploring other places to write. Stay tuned.
I write this intro with the realization that this will probably not end until the end of January. I hope it's a nice ride.

Horse-Racing picks from the Parx: Sat., May 12th

Check out the rest of Dan's races from the Parx in Philly, but, first check out the NBA and/or Triple Crown to your right, and read some of my blogs written during college football season.Thanks.
Here are the balance of picks from the Parx:
Race 5: 7-4-2-6
Race 6: 2-1-4-5
Race 7: 4-5-1-6
Race 8: 5-4-6-1
Race 9: 2-1-7-5
Race 10: 6-9-1-7

I'll be releasing Dan's results later, but, if you'd like to check, go to equibase.com, and then click results, and then quick results. Go Dan!