@EdgySam works on his team ratings starting in early July. Those ratings are my most important handicapping tool. Tonight, I have FIU as the higher rated team in their contest vs.FAU. That would normally make the Golden Panthers my pick. Higher rated team getting points at home would normally be the almost automatic play.
FIU has loads of returning starters from '13. The problem is those returning starters played on an absolutely horrible team. They had a horrible rush attack last year. They've shown little improvement this year. They had a horrible passing attack last year. They've shown little improvement this year. They had a horrible defense last year. What scares me a little is the FIU defense has shown improvement in '14.
FAU, in competition similar to FIU, has beaten Tulsa, played well in a 19-20 loss to Wyoming, and in the most impressive game of their year, beat an up and coming UTSA squad, 41-37.
The Owls have also displayed something the Golden Panthers have yet to display: leadership at the offensive, talent positions. They have gotten good play from QB Jaquez Johnson (he can pass and throw), and, very important, have gotten rushing stats from RB Warren. It's great the Owls have two definite threats on the offensive side of the ball.
It doesn't hurt that FIU beat UAB last week playing an absolute dreadful game offensively. I think that's brought the pointspread down tonight.
Take FAU(Florida Atlantic).
In the other 7:00p.m. contest, two defenses that have a combined 19 starters back face two, respective offenses that have struggled so far this year.
Take the under in the UCF - Houston contest.
I'll be back late tonight for a potential play on Oregon - Arizona game.
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