@EdgySam: #ASU at #Washington, #THEPICK

@EdgySam simply does not believe in ASU. They have only 1.5 starters back on defense,and 4.5 back on offense, including the loss of '13 starting QB Kelly. I have the home team, Washington, rated higher than the Sun Devils, and, yet, they come into the game an underdog. As a result, I gave out the Huskies to my cleeps.
I also gave out a 1/2 unit recommendation on the under. Lots of rain and wind forecast for the game, and I thought the 60+ total was too high.

@EdgySam:The Final Comp Pick, #AR vs #WSU

Arizona passes the ball very proficiently: 434, 231, 278, 520,287,395!!! WSU fortunately for us, plays pretty sub-par pass defense( 281, 329, 527,284 to Rutg, Oreg, Cal, and Stan, respectively).
WSU passes the ball very proficiently: 532, 389, 436, 417, 734, 292!!! Arizona, fortunately for us, plays pretty sub-par pass defense(252, 228, 321, 380, 302, 185(huh)).
This game should, hopefully, get into the upper 80s. To be honest, I'm wondering why totals line is so low.
Take the over in the final comp pick of 2014.

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@EdgySam: #Temple vs.#UCF, #THEPICK!

I want to keep this simple because it pains me to make this pick, but, I have UCF rated considerably higher than my alma mater, Temple. The line is dropping, and, in reality, it probably should be going the other way. I look at making this pick as I win either way: if UCF wins, I'll be relatively happy; if Temple wins, I'll be very happy.
Take UCF.

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@EdgySam: #UNLV at #UTAHST, #THEPICK

You absolutely cannot trust UNLV, but, I have them rated higher than Utah St under my CollegeEdge team ratings and the Rebels are underdogs. Also, Utah St. is down to its 3rd string QB.
No recommendation on this game, but, tie UNLV into a small parlay with a team you like. I just can't give out a team as bad as UNLV in a recommendation.

@EdgySam: #WestVirginia at #OklahomaState, #THEPICK!

In handicapping this game, I came to much the same conclusion as I did in picking Cincinnati last night. Oklahoma St. has been surprisingly sub-par this year, and I just don't see how they can keep up with a West Virginia team that's been getting tremendous production from QB Trickett, a decent complimentary running game, and a pretty strong defense.
Yes, I'm hoping the Mountaineers have no letdown after the big win last week, but, I'm counting on my CollegeEdge ratings holding true in this Big 12 contest.
Take West Virginia.

No plays at Noon(I took Arkansas, Virginia and Nebraska in my 2nd Annual Handicapping Contest for my early picks, and I'm presently in 3rd place!), so comp picks will end with games that start at 6:00p.m. or earlier.

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@EdgySam: #Oregon/#Cal & #BYU/#BoiseState, #ThePicks

BYU too many injuries. I like HC Bronco Mendenhall getting his team up after three straight losses, but, not enough to make it a recommendation.
Like Oregon, but, not enough to make Ducks a recommendation. Road games vs. WSU and UCLA are scaring me away from a recommendation.
In a fun parlay, make a small investment in BYU and Oregon. But, no recommendation.
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@EdgySam: #USF at #Cincinnati, #THEPICK!

In answer to question I posed last night, no, I don't believe USF's win over Tulsa last week is the start of a positive pattern for the Bulls.I'm going with my collegeedge ratings tonight:
Take Cincinnati in a small( 1/2 unit) play.
NFL picks are ready to go for whoever signs up for my offer. Last comp picks are at Noon Saturday.

@EdgySam: #Miami vs. #VirginiaTech, #THEPICK

In a very similar situation to tonight's first college game, I don't see how Virginia Tech will bring enough offense to this ACC matchup in order to keep up with Miami's more prolific attack.
The Hokies have been pretty decimated by injuries at the RB position, and QB Brewer has been unable to pick up the slack, having thrown 11 Tds this year, but, an equal amount of interceptions.
The most influential athlete on the field tonight will be the Hurricanes RB Johnson, but, it is also nice to note that QB Kaaya has played steadily better all year, and, I think, is a threat in his own right.
With RB Johnson leading the way, take Miami in a small play, or, 1/2 of your normal Unit play.
EdgySam thinks game will go over the totals, but, does not like it strong enough to give it a recommendation.

Complimentary picks end with the Noon games this coming Saturday. It's decision time. I have not had a losing season in recent memory, and I hit an unbelievable 73% of my plays for my cleeps in 2011. I can do it again because I work my ass off.
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@EdgySam: #UConn at #EastCarolina, #THEPICK

An East Carolina team, which has one of the most prolific QBs in the country in Shane Carden(16tds/4int!), gets a chance to go center-stage tonight in their AAC matchup vs. UConn.
The Pirates are home, they can pass, for sure, and rush the ball, and, you know what, they play pretty decent defense.
The Huskies have played some decent defense this year, but, I don't see how the teams from Storrs, Connecticut(where?) can keep up in any way offensively. Their rushing and passing attacks have been absolutely putrid.
Despite the big line, small play on East Carolina.
A small play is equivalent to 1/2 of your normal unit play.

Complimentary picks until the Noon games on Saturday. Then, it is decision time.
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@EdgySam: Is Head Coach Record vs. Spread Important?

You've heard this comment before: a college head coach should try to cover the spread in order to keep the alumni and boosters happy. It's true the alumni and boosters are probably real happy when the alma mater covers the spread on Saturdays. But, if that's what's important to a head coach, he'll soon be enjoying those games from the same seats the alumni and boosters are sitting in.
I think the spread record of a head coach is important to me, as a handicapper, because it lets me know if the coach is meeting expectations.
If a head coach has a winning record vs. the spread, it very simply means to me the coach in question is meeting or surpassing the expectations of the line makers. It's tough maintaining a winning record in most programs, period. A consistent winning record vs. the spread is even more noteworthy.
For example, tonight's head coach for ULL, Mark Hudspeth, is in his 4th year in that position. His record in his first three years against the spread was 22-16 ( his straight-up record in that same span was a sterling 27-12). That's a record that this handicapper cannot ignore. When I do my CollegeEdge ratings, ULL's HC successes both straight-up and vs. the spread figure prominently in my final numbers.
On the other hand, the head coach from ULL's opponent tonight, Arkansas St, is in his first year as a head coach...anywhere. Until I learn more about HC Blake Anderson, I must give a decisive handicapping advantage to the experienced Hudspeth.
So, the bottom line for me is simple: if a coach has a winning record vs. the spread, he's meeting expectations, and, as a result,  is a very important factor in the handicapping process.
Some of my favorite spread coaches: 1) Bill Snyder. Others include: David Cutcliffe, Saban, Todd Graham, Kirk Ferentz, Bobby Petrino, Urban Meyer, Al Golden, Mike Gundy........

@EdgySam: #ArkansasState vs. #ULL, #THEPICK!

Do I fear the possibility of taking ULL two weeks in a row? Absolutely. The team the Cajuns are facing is better than the Texas St. team ULL played last week, and Arkansas St. is riding a nice 3-game winning streak.
BUT, ULL is a team that comes into their home game tonight in Lafayette as an underdog, despite the fact I have the Cajuns as the higher rated team under my CollegeEdge ratings.
Some reasons ULL comes into the game rated higher is more experience at the QB position(though new QB Knighten has played pretty well this year for the Red Wolves), and most of the other offensive positions as well, the coaching edge, in my opinion, of 4-yr. HC Hudspeth over 1st year HC Anderson, and the fact ULL is playing home, where the Cajuns have been a home underdog only one time in coach Hudspeth's tenure at Lafayette. By the way, ULL covered in that only home underdog situation.
Will this be a tough game tonight? No doubt, in my mind, it will be, but, my ratings tell me the wrong team is favored.
ULL in a small play. I would define a small play as a 1/2 Unit play.

These weeknight games will be the last of the CollegeEdge complimentary releases.
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@EdgySam: #Stanford vs #ASU & #Nevada vs #BYU, #THEPICKS!

I have Nevada as the higher rated team in their contest vs. BYU. They come into this away game as an underdog. The Cougars have two major injuries entering the game, one on each side of the ball, and each injured player is probably the best player on their respective units(QB Hill; LB Fua).
I also like that the far more experienced QB in tonight's game is 4-yr.-starter Fajardo.
Take Nevada

ASU has a porous defense that has only 1.5 starters back from the '13 team. No matter how good Stanford's defense is, and it is good, innovative HC Graham of ASU will figure out how to put some points on the board. Surprised the totals line is dropping, and I LIKE IT.
Take the over in the Stanford-ASU game.

As written above, the Sun Devils have only 1.5 starters back from '13, and it shows. Stanford not an offensive show, but, this is the worst PAC 12 team they've faced this year, and I have no doubt they'll score a decent amount of points. The Cardinal defense is not up to last year's ability, but, the unit is still very good.
I also like the fact HC Shaw is 10-4 as a road favorite, and ASU is coming off a very lucky win over USC.
Take Stanford.

This is the last full week of complimentary picks. Picks will continue through at least this Thursday night. Stay tuned

@EDgySam: #NotreDame at #FSU, #THEPICK!

Notre Dame has 3.5 starters back on defense from '13. They have 5 starters back from '13 on defense. This is just too big a step up in their first true road game of the year.
I just have a feeling QB Winston somehow responds to all the negative stuff going on.
Seminoles are the much higher rated team under my CollegeEdge ratings.They won't lose tonight.
Take Florida State

@EdgySam: #Nebraska vs. #Northwestern. #THEPICK!

I have Northwestern rated higher than Nebraska under my Collegeedge team ratings. They come into their home game vs. the Cornhuskers as underdogs. That's almost an automatic play for me. Am I confident? No.
Take Northwestern in a small play.

@EdgySam: #OkSt/#TCU & #Georgia/#Arkansas, #THEPICKS

#Edgysam and the CollegeEdge ratings have Arkansas rated higher than Georgia. Yes, I'm nervous about that fact, but, I do think after two tough losses, the Hogs will come to play vs. Georgia.
Take Arkansas
Take the over in the same game.

In the OKSt vs. TCU game, the best part of both teams are the defenses. 62+ points is too much, I believe.
Take the under.

Also, I expect a TCU letdown after their first loss( and what a heart breaker it was)
In a smaller play, take Oklahoma St

@EdgySam: #Baylor vs. #WestVirginia, #THEPICK!

In the Noon games on Saturday, I was tempted to give out #Tulsa, but, decided I couldn't give out a team that has played pretty bad this year(though USF has played equally bad).
In researching the early games, I have a team that's home, that's rated higher than the visiting team under my collegeedge ratings, but, still comes into their home game as an underdog.
Okay, you have 10 seconds to guess which early-playing team am I writing about?

Time's up.
West Virginia has the QB play, enough good running backs, and a pretty decent defense to stay close to the Baylor Bears and possibly get the upset. I think Baylor is over-rated and I'm hoping this is the game where my opinion comes to fruition.
The Mountaineers played Alabama and Oklahoma tough, and, I believe they will do the same, at home, vs. Baylor.
Take West Virginia

@EdgySam: #Temple #Owls vs.#Houston, #THEPICK!

The strength of both teams, tonight, are the defenses. Houston has 9 starters back on defense from their '13 squad. The Cougar defense is playing well against both the run and the pass.
Temple's defense has played well to date, and, I think they will should give Houston's offense some trouble tonight. Why? Houston's projected starter at QB this year was O'Korn. He has not played well. His backup, Greg Ward will probably play a lot tonight, and I just think my alma mater, led by tackling machine LB Tyler Matakevich, will slow down the green starting QB.
I'll stay away from picking a side in the game, though I do think the Owls will keep it close.
Take the under in the Temple vs. Houston AAC matchup.
Go Owls!
This will be the last full week of complimentary games.

@EdgySam: #FresnoState vs. #BoiseState, #THEPICK!

My #Collegeedge ratings have the #FresnoState vs. #BoiseState a lot closer than the present line of the Broncos favored by 17.
The Bulldogs have 9 starters back on defense from the '13 squad, have a decent running back group, and, what I believe is a pretty decent coaching staff.
Fresno St., one of the elites of the Mountain West Conference, also has a nice 18-10 record over the last ten years as a road underdog. Boise St. probably wins tonight, but, I believe the game will be a lot closer than the spread would indicate.
Take Fresno St.

This will be the last week of complimentary picks. Stay tuned.

@EdgySam: #Utah vs. #OregonState, #THEPICK!

Like #Pitt, #OregonState is the higher rated team over #Utah tonight, but, comes into their home game as an underdog. Like the #Panthers, I just don't have a lot of faith in the Beavers this year. In their only real tough matchup of the year, they got throttled by USC.
I'm taking Oregon State because they are the higher rated team, but, I recommend only a small play on the Beavers.

This will be the last week of the complimentary picks.

@EdgySam: #VirginiaTech vs. #Pitt, #THEPICK

In the #VirginiaTech vs. #Pitt contest, you have two QBs in Voytik and Brewer, respectively, who have played in a sub-par manner.
Virginia Tech has lost its top RB in Edmunds to injury, and another contributor at the RB position in Williams. The Panther rush offense started strong this year, but, has become mediocre in its last three games vs. Virginia, Akron and Iowa.
Both teams have played decently against the pass, not as well against the run. My hope both teams will turn to grind it out offensive attacks.
The under is the play in the Virginia Tech/Pitt contest.

I have Pitt rated higher than the Hokies under my collegeedge ratings, and Pitt is the slight underdog. I just don't like that the Panthers have played progressively worse each game they've played since the FIU win. For that reason, just a small play on Pitt in this game.

This will probably be the last week of complimentary picks.

@EdgySam: #ULL at #TexasSt, #THEPICK!

ULL is the higher rated team tonight in their away game at Texas St, according to my CollegeEdge team ratings. I think they should be favored in the game. They are underdogs.
ULL is well coached by Mike Hudspeth, they have experience at the QB position with senior Broadway, all of their '13 RBs in the fold and 4 starters back in the offensive line. They also have 7 starters back on defense.
Texas St. has decent returnees back on offense, but, I honestly don't think they match the Cajuns' talented offensive weapons. The Bobcats have only 3 starters back on defense after losing their best defensive player, LB Michael Orakpo, for the year to injury.
I do fear the fact Texas St. is home and are coached by a very good coach, Dennis Franchione.
Look for QB Broadway and RBs Harris and McGuire to lead the way tonight.
Take ULL Cajuns.

@EdgySam: #AirForce vs. #UtahState, #THEPICK

#AirForce has beaten #BoiseState and #Navy in consecutive weeks in impressive fashion. They come into this game tonight at Utah State as an uderdog. Despite the Aggies almost inexplicable win over BYU last week, the fact is this Logan, Utah squad has only 4.5 starters back on defense, and 3.5 starters back on offense, which includes the loss of all-star QB Keeton.
The higher rated team under my collegeedge ratings is AirForce, and they come into this game as a sizable underdog.
Take the Falcons.

@EdgySam: #OleMiss @ #TexasAM, #THEPICK!

Gulp: #TexasAM home on a Saturday night? The game starts at 9:15p.m.? I smell bedlam. That's okay. In my opinion, the wrong team is favored in the game, and, yes, I did take into account the Aggies are home on a Saturday night. Mississippi State didn't let down after their big win over Texas A&M last week, and I don't think Ole Miss will let down tonight after their big win last over 'Bama.
Take Mississippi

@EdgySam: #Washington vs. #California, #THEPICK!

Yeah: Always thrilled when the team I like is being bet against by the public. I have Washington as the higher rated team under my collegeedge ratings. The Huskies are getting points in their game vs. California.
Doesn't hurt that in the Stanford game, Washington played  tough in their 13-20 loss.
Take Washington

@EdgySam: #TCU vs.#Baylor & #Auburn vs. #MissSt, #THEPICKS!

Not crazy about the fact the public likes these same two teams, but, here are my two 3:30p.m. plays, both situations where my collegeedge ratings have the wrong team favored: TCU and Mississippi State.

@EdgySam: #FresnoState @ #UNLV. #ThePick!

Let's keep it simple on this late game tonight. UNLV lost a very effective QB from '13 (24/5 Td/Int ratio!), and a 1200-yard-rusher from last year's team as well. A traditionally lower-level team like the Rebels cannot, usually, overcome such high value losses. They haven't so far in '14.
I don't see how UNLV's offense will be able to keep up with one of the marque programs of the Mountain West Conference, Fresno St.
Take Fresno St.

@EdgySam: #SDSU vs. #NewMexico, #ThePick

In the #SDSU vs. #NewMexico game tomorrow night, I have my first game of the week where my collegeedge ratings say the team that should be favored is the squad getting points. The Lobos are home on Friday night in a MWC game vs. the Aztecs of SanDiegoSt and instead of being favored in the game, as I believe they should be, New Mexico is the underdog.
The major reason New Mexico should be favored in the game is the loss of SDSU's efficient and underrated QB, Quinn Kaehler. His replacement is young(a freshman), inexperienced, and played horribly in his only start of the year(vs. Fresno St.).
Other reasons I think Lobos should be favored: Aztecs have only 3.5 starters back on defense, and they will be assigned the complicated task of facing an option offense; New Mexico showed an ability to play decent defense in the first half of the Fresno St. and played very well defensively last week in their 21-9 win over UTSA; finally home team has the chance to make up for an earlier, big stage, Friday night loss at Fresno St.
Look, I always worry when I go with a team that has been pretty bad in recent years. But, I think coach Bob Davie has been doing a decent job in Albuquerque( three years prior to Davie's arrival, New Mexico went 1-11 three consecutive years).
Take New Mexico. Take it as soon as possible. Line is going down.

@EdgySam: #BoiseState vs. #Nevada, #THEPICK

For the second week in a row, we have one of the last scheduled games on the card.
Under my CollegeEdge ratings, I have Nevada rated higher than BoiseSt, and yet the Wolfpack come into their home game as an underdog.
Nevada has a 4-yr. starter at QB in Fajardo. He is under rated. The Reno squad also has a strong nucleus of starters returning from '13, and have they played well this year. Two of their well played games were against WSU and Arizona of the Pac12, defeating Wazzou 24-13, and playing at Tucson tough in a 28-35 loss.
I'm always afraid of the Broncos, but, remember HC Chris Petersen left for Washington, and, I don't believe this Boise St squad is as well coached. In fact, Nevada has the more experienced coaching staff.
The public is betting BoiseSt. I like it.
Take the team I have rated higher: Nevada

@EdgySam: #Wisconsin vs. #Northwestern, #ThePick

Well, I picked Northwestern early on as my surprise team in the Big 10. The Wildcats disappointed me early, but, they did so in non-league play. In their first league matchup, the Pat Fitzgerald-coached team won pretty decisively on the road vs. Penn State. It's time for the Wildcats to continue playing like I thought they could.
I have Northwestern rated higher than Wisconsin under my CollegeEdge ratings, and, still they come into their home game as an underdog. Have to go with my ratings!

Take Northwestern

@EdgySam: #UtahState vs. #BYU, #ThePick!

Sometimes a bargain is a bargain. Don't over-think the decision. With QB Keeton out for UtahSt, I don't see how the Aggies can stay close. Take BYU.

@EdgySam: #SanDiegoState vs. #FresnoState, #ThePick

Two inexperienced QBs start tonight for Fresno St. and SDSU, respectively. The Bulldogs lose the fabulous, #2 DC, Derek Carr, and the Aztecs lose underrated returning starter from '13, Kaehler, to an injury. SDSU has that goofy 4-2-5 defense, which I believe will give new starter Burrell lots of trouble, and I believe the 8.5 returning starters from the Bulldogs squad will give the young Aztec, QB starter trouble as well. As a result, I believe both offenses will play conservatively, keeping the score under the fairly high totals.
Take the under

With the loss of QB Kaehler tonight, my CollegeEdge ratings favor FresnoSt. strongly. I'm going to ride my ratings, and believe we'll see FresnoSt continue to improve from their slow start this year, albeit, a slow start vs. an unbelievably difficult early schedule.

Take the home team. Fresno St.

#EdgySam: #Louisville vs. #Syracuse, #ThePick

One of the most amazing stats of the year: Syracuse ran for 370 yards vs. Maryland ( 7.3 yards per carry!), and gave up only 89 on the ground vs. the Terps. Somehow, the Orange figured out a way to trail by 13-31 at the half of that game, and eventually lose by the score of 20-34. That game shows me what Syracuse is capable of accomplishing.
Syracuse is the home underdog, but, is the higher rated team under my CollegeEdge ratings. I don't think we'll see a letdown and I like the fact the Orange are home for a Friday night, ESPN game.
By the way, Louisville will start a freshman tonight. I think that helps my (our?) cause.
Take the team I think should be the slight favorite in this ACC matchup: Syracuse.

Pay attention for potential plays tonight.

@EdgySam: #FAU vs #FIU, #ThePick

@EdgySam works on his team ratings starting in early July. Those ratings are my most important handicapping tool. Tonight, I have FIU as the higher rated team in their contest vs.FAU. That would normally make the Golden Panthers my pick. Higher rated team getting points at home would normally be the almost automatic play.
FIU has loads of returning starters from '13. The problem is those returning starters played on an absolutely horrible team. They had a horrible rush attack last year. They've shown little improvement this year. They had a horrible passing attack last year. They've shown little improvement this year. They had a horrible defense last year. What scares me a little is the FIU defense has shown improvement in '14.
FAU, in competition similar to FIU, has beaten Tulsa, played well in a 19-20 loss to Wyoming, and in the most impressive game of their year, beat an up and coming UTSA squad, 41-37.
The Owls have also displayed something the Golden Panthers have yet to display: leadership at the offensive, talent positions. They have gotten good play from QB Jaquez Johnson (he can pass and throw), and, very important, have gotten rushing stats from RB Warren. It's great the Owls have two definite threats on the offensive side of the ball.
It doesn't hurt that FIU beat UAB last week playing an absolute dreadful game offensively. I think that's brought the pointspread down tonight.
Take FAU(Florida Atlantic).

In the other 7:00p.m. contest, two defenses that have a combined 19 starters back face two, respective offenses that have struggled so far this year.
Take the under in the UCF - Houston contest.
I'll be back late tonight for a potential play on Oregon - Arizona game.