I have Miss.St rated considerably higher than Georgia Tech. On this New Year's Eve, I go with my numbers. I gave the Bulldogs to my cleeps in a 1-unit play.
In a 1/2-unit play, I also gave out the over in the same game. I believe both teams will have lots of success running the ball, which should open up the passing attack as well.
Happy New Year
Wednesday, December 31, 2014
@EdgySam: #BoiseSt vs. #Arizona, #ThePick
I'm late putting this out, so, there is a segment (93.5%) that won't believe that I gave out Boise St to my cleeps in a 1-unit recommendation, my highest class of play.
Why? The better defense belongs to the Broncos. When that happens, it's also nice to have an offense that has a strong running game. Boise has a strong running game.
The Broncos were a 1-unit play.
Why? The better defense belongs to the Broncos. When that happens, it's also nice to have an offense that has a strong running game. Boise has a strong running game.
The Broncos were a 1-unit play.
@EdgySam: #TCU vs #OleMiss, #ThePicks
This will be the toughest defense TCU will face this year. Against a tough passing defense, West Virginia, the Horned Frogs only threw for 40% completion. That game is indicative of what I think can happen today. Besides, I'll take an SEC West taking points any day of the bowl season.
Ole Miss in a 1/2-unit recommendation over TCU.
Under the totals because of the excellence of both defenses for 1/2-unit as well.
Ole Miss in a 1/2-unit recommendation over TCU.
Under the totals because of the excellence of both defenses for 1/2-unit as well.
@EdgySam: #Stanford vs #Maryland, #ThePick Was...
@EdgySam gave out Stanford to his cleeps last night in a 1/2-unit recommendation. No recommendation on the totals, but, recommended a small parlay with the over and Ole Miss.
Tuesday, December 30, 2014
@EdgySam: #LSU vs. #Notre Dame, #ThePick ( a 1-unit! )
The no-doubt-about-it better defense, and the most powerful "conference" in the FBS, the SEC West, add up to a 1-unit play on LSU.
Much like yesterday's A&M - West Virginia game, don't see how a new QB ( Zaire ) will be able to do anything vs. this good SEC West defense.
Gave out under and LSU in a small, fun parlay, but, not a recommendation. I think Tigers might get a lot of the total all by themselves.
Much like yesterday's A&M - West Virginia game, don't see how a new QB ( Zaire ) will be able to do anything vs. this good SEC West defense.
Gave out under and LSU in a small, fun parlay, but, not a recommendation. I think Tigers might get a lot of the total all by themselves.
Monday, December 29, 2014
@EdgySam: #Arkansas vs #Texas, #ThePick
When in doubt, take the team from the SEC West. Arkansas beat LSU and Ole Miss in consecutive weeks, and played all of their SEC foes close, except for Auburn early in the year. In fact, Razorback lost to Alabama by only 1 point. Also, in each of their non-SEC contests, Arkansas romped.
I think a lot of good things await Texas under HC Strong, but, not tonight.
I gave out Arkansas in a 1/2 unit play.
I think a lot of good things await Texas under HC Strong, but, not tonight.
I gave out Arkansas in a 1/2 unit play.
@EdgySam: #Oklahoma vs #Clemson, #ThePick
Clemson the better defense, I believe, in this ACC/ Big 12 matchup. The problem is the Tigers dual threat at QB, freshman Watson, is out. I have no trust in starting QB Stoudt. Without a running game to go with the immobile Stoudt, I don't know how Clemson will keep up with Oklahoma. Tiger defense is good, but, I don't think they are so good they'll overcome their offensive inefficiencies.
I gave out Oklahoma in a 1/2-unit play for my cleeps. Because I've been very strong with my sides, and, not so much with totals, I made an if recommendation with Oklahoma on top. If Sooners win or push, action on the under for the same 1/2-unit.
I gave out Oklahoma in a 1/2-unit play for my cleeps. Because I've been very strong with my sides, and, not so much with totals, I made an if recommendation with Oklahoma on top. If Sooners win or push, action on the under for the same 1/2-unit.
@EdgySam: #TexasAM vs #Mountaineers, #TheInstinctPick
My numbers told me that West Virginia was the pick over Texas A&M. The Mountaineers should have been the recommendation. Right? Wrong.
West Virginia is going with an inexperienced QB in the wake of QB Trickett's retirement. I just can't see an inexperienced QB giving 3 points to a team from the best conference in the FBS: Texas A&M from the SEC West ( the Aggies beat South Carolina, Arkansas, and, most impressively, Auburn).
My numbers told me West Virginia. My instincts told me A&M. I went with my instincts.
I gave out Texas A&M in a 1/2-unit recommendation over West Virginia.
West Virginia has a fairly stout defense. West Virginia is starting a very green, inexperienced QB in Howard. Even the Aggies unimpressive defense should give the young QB trouble.
I gave out the under in a fun play to my cleeps in the same game.
West Virginia is going with an inexperienced QB in the wake of QB Trickett's retirement. I just can't see an inexperienced QB giving 3 points to a team from the best conference in the FBS: Texas A&M from the SEC West ( the Aggies beat South Carolina, Arkansas, and, most impressively, Auburn).
My numbers told me West Virginia. My instincts told me A&M. I went with my instincts.
I gave out Texas A&M in a 1/2-unit recommendation over West Virginia.
West Virginia has a fairly stout defense. West Virginia is starting a very green, inexperienced QB in Howard. Even the Aggies unimpressive defense should give the young QB trouble.
I gave out the under in a fun play to my cleeps in the same game.
Friday, December 26, 2014
@EdgySam: #NCSU vs #UCF, #ThePick
I'm going back to the basics on this game: when in doubt, go with the better defense. UCF has the better defense. A little scary that NCST plays the tougher schedule, but, they did lose to GT, Louisville, BC, Clemson big, FSU and Old Dominion. UCF also coached by one heck of a great coach: George O'Leary.
I gave out UCF in a 1-unit play to my cleeps.
UCF has a very good defense, and an offense that can be controlled. NCSt has an offense that can controlled and serviceable defense. Always like going under when you have an outstanding defense involved in the game. UCF has an outstanding defense.
The under in the game was a 1/2-unit recommendation for my cleeps.
I gave out UCF in a 1-unit play to my cleeps.
UCF has a very good defense, and an offense that can be controlled. NCSt has an offense that can controlled and serviceable defense. Always like going under when you have an outstanding defense involved in the game. UCF has an outstanding defense.
The under in the game was a 1/2-unit recommendation for my cleeps.
@EdgySam: #Rutgers vs.#NorthCarolina, #ThePicks
Under two ways I work my CollegeEdge team ratings, I have Rutgers rated higher in both instances. Not real confident in the Scarlet Knights this year(though North Carolina defense stinks!), so, rather than a 1-unit play, I recommended a 1/2-unit play on Rutgers.
Both teams have stinky defenses, and efficient offenses, so, despite, the decent rise in the totals line, still like the over.
Gave out the over in great dome conditions for another 1/2-unit recommendation for my cleeps.
Both teams have stinky defenses, and efficient offenses, so, despite, the decent rise in the totals line, still like the over.
Gave out the over in great dome conditions for another 1/2-unit recommendation for my cleeps.
@EdgySam: #LaTech vs #Illinois, #ThePick (Strong One!)
Big picks for EdgySam in this first game today.
Coach Holtz has done a good job with LaTech. Statistically, they are one of the top defensive teams in the country. The bottom line for me in this game: LaTech plays great defense, Illinois plays very mediocre defense. That's enough for me. This is one of my best picks of the Bowl Season.
I gave my cleeps LaTech in a 1-unit play.
Combine the Bulldogs very good defense with the fact the offense is down to three returning starters for LaTech offense, including only .5 starters back on the O-Line, and this game has all the ingredients for a nice under the totals play.
I gave out the under for 1/2-unit to my loyal cleeps.
Coach Holtz has done a good job with LaTech. Statistically, they are one of the top defensive teams in the country. The bottom line for me in this game: LaTech plays great defense, Illinois plays very mediocre defense. That's enough for me. This is one of my best picks of the Bowl Season.
I gave my cleeps LaTech in a 1-unit play.
Combine the Bulldogs very good defense with the fact the offense is down to three returning starters for LaTech offense, including only .5 starters back on the O-Line, and this game has all the ingredients for a nice under the totals play.
I gave out the under for 1/2-unit to my loyal cleeps.
Wednesday, December 24, 2014
@EdgySam #Christmas Bonus: #HawaiiBowl, #ThePick
I have Fresno St rated higher in what should be a closely contested game vs. Rice. I think the best unit on the field is the Bulldog rushing attack, and, I also like that Fresno got blown out of its last 2 bowl games. The Bulldogs should be coming to play, Though I was close to making this a 1-unit play for my cleeps, 1/2-unit recommendation on Fresno St.
Merry Christmas to all who celebrate the wonderful holiday.
Merry Christmas to all who celebrate the wonderful holiday.
Tuesday, December 23, 2014
@EdgySam: #NavyvsSDSU, #ThePick Was...
San Diego St has made a career of playing against, and successfully stopping option attacks. He has played against the option twice this year, vs. Air Force and New Mexico, and won both of those matchups. He has also faced the option numerous times when he was the tremendous leader of the New Mexico Lobos. As coach of that team, he faced Air Force every year!
Add to that the facts that the Aztecs have the better defense, and the outstanding RB Pumphrey, and the 1-unit play for my cleeps tonight was San Diego State.
@EdgySam also gave out the under in a 1/2-unit play in the same game.
Add to that the facts that the Aztecs have the better defense, and the outstanding RB Pumphrey, and the 1-unit play for my cleeps tonight was San Diego State.
@EdgySam also gave out the under in a 1/2-unit play in the same game.
Monday, December 22, 2014
@EdgySam: #Memphis vs. #BYU, #ThePick
I have Memphis rated higher than BYU under my CollegeEdge rating system. They should be favored in the game, and, inexplicably, line is at a pick.
BYU had a weak final schedule. Unduly influenced the line, in my opinion.
Take Memphis in a 1/2-unit play.
BYU had a weak final schedule. Unduly influenced the line, in my opinion.
Take Memphis in a 1/2-unit play.
Saturday, December 20, 2014
@EdgySam: #AirForce vs. #WesternMichigan, #ThePick
Western Michigan hasn't seen an option attack in a while. That's baaaaaad. Air Force has beaten Boise, Navy, Nevada, SDSU, and CSU. Western Michigan won no big games.
Air Force was a 1-unit play for my complimentary crew.
Air Force was a 1-unit play for my complimentary crew.
@EdgySam: #Utah vs. #CSU, #ThePick
CSU Rams are in relative disarray with the departure of HC McElwain. I wish Utah's QB play was a little more dependable, but, I'll still take the better program and better athletes in this Pac-12/ MWC matchup.
I gave out the Utes in a 1/2-unit play.
I gave out the Utes in a 1/2-unit play.
@EdgySam: #UtahState vs. #Utep, #ThePick
It's 3:04p.m. I have no idea what the score of the game is between Utah St and UTEP. I gave out Utah St. in a 1-unit recommendation.
@EdgySam: #Nevada vs.#ULL, #ThePicks
All of today's opening day Bowl recommendations are on @EdgySam, a "working stiff" handicapper.
I have ULL rated higher than Nevada, so the Ragin' Cajuns are edgySam's pick. I have a lot of respect for Wolfpack QB Fajardo, so, instead of a 1-unit play on the higher rated team, I recommended a 1/2-unit play on ULL.
In the same game, two mediocre defenses are going against solid rushing attacks. Each team also has acceptable passing attacks. I like the over and gave a 1/2-unit recommendation on the over to my "cleeps."
I have ULL rated higher than Nevada, so the Ragin' Cajuns are edgySam's pick. I have a lot of respect for Wolfpack QB Fajardo, so, instead of a 1-unit play on the higher rated team, I recommended a 1/2-unit play on ULL.
In the same game, two mediocre defenses are going against solid rushing attacks. Each team also has acceptable passing attacks. I like the over and gave a 1/2-unit recommendation on the over to my "cleeps."
Tuesday, December 16, 2014
@EdgySam #WorkingStiff FBS Bowl Offer - 2014
The highlight of my Working Stiff Bowl Offer is I will refund the full $35.00 fee if you pay by money order, and $33.00 of the $35.00 fee if you pay by PayPal if I don't hit at least 52.96% of my recommendations!
The New York Post and Philly Daily News ran season-long contests for their sports staffs in which contestants picked a series of college football games each week. One Post writer went 114 - 93(55%).
Another went 109 - 98 ( 53% ). These are the only two of 15 collective contestants who would have shown a profit had they bet the same theoretical $10.00 on all of their picks.
Even more telling, Vegas Vic, the Daily News pro handicapper, a guy I respect, lost $450.00 on the regular season on an average investment of $50.00 per pick.
In a college/NFL contest last year, my NFL partner and I had to pick 14 plays per week. We finished 3rd at 57%+.
This year, in a college-only contest, where 16 of the 30 contestants would have finished in the red, I finished 6th with a winning % of 55.4%..
I mention these contests for one reason: it's not easy handicapping college football, no matter what those blowhards on those advertisements might yell at you.
When you sign up with this "working stiff," you'll get a dude who'll put every ounce of effort into trying to make your experience profitable and fun. I will work all the bowl games. I will work all sides and totals. I will make recommendations I expect you to follow. Here is how my recommendations will be given.
They will be given in 1/2- and 1-unit increments. A 1-unit play will count as one win, or, one loss against my total record. A 1/2-unit play will count as a .5 win, or, .5 loss against my total record.
Using the 1st game as an example, if I give you Nevada over ULL as a 1-unit recommendation, and the over in the same game as a 1/2 unit recommendation, and both win, your record after that game is 1.5 - 0! These recommendations will continue throughout the bowl season. In certain spots, I may recommend a 1.5 unit play on what I feel is a particularly strong play.
When Bowl season is over, if my winning % is 53% or higher, I keep the fee. If it's 52.95% or lower, I refund accordingly.
I prefer to text the picks. I also can e-mail them, if I have the time. If neither work for you, we'll figure something out.
You can sign up via PayPal right here at this site. Call 267-752-3343 or e-mail me if you'd like to go the money order route. I'd also recommend you visit my website at www.college-edge.com for investment and handicapping advice.
This Working Stiff is ready to go to work for you. I hope you'll sign up now!
Thanks, Sam ( www.twitter.com/edgysam)
The New York Post and Philly Daily News ran season-long contests for their sports staffs in which contestants picked a series of college football games each week. One Post writer went 114 - 93(55%).
Another went 109 - 98 ( 53% ). These are the only two of 15 collective contestants who would have shown a profit had they bet the same theoretical $10.00 on all of their picks.
Even more telling, Vegas Vic, the Daily News pro handicapper, a guy I respect, lost $450.00 on the regular season on an average investment of $50.00 per pick.
In a college/NFL contest last year, my NFL partner and I had to pick 14 plays per week. We finished 3rd at 57%+.
This year, in a college-only contest, where 16 of the 30 contestants would have finished in the red, I finished 6th with a winning % of 55.4%..
I mention these contests for one reason: it's not easy handicapping college football, no matter what those blowhards on those advertisements might yell at you.
When you sign up with this "working stiff," you'll get a dude who'll put every ounce of effort into trying to make your experience profitable and fun. I will work all the bowl games. I will work all sides and totals. I will make recommendations I expect you to follow. Here is how my recommendations will be given.
They will be given in 1/2- and 1-unit increments. A 1-unit play will count as one win, or, one loss against my total record. A 1/2-unit play will count as a .5 win, or, .5 loss against my total record.
Using the 1st game as an example, if I give you Nevada over ULL as a 1-unit recommendation, and the over in the same game as a 1/2 unit recommendation, and both win, your record after that game is 1.5 - 0! These recommendations will continue throughout the bowl season. In certain spots, I may recommend a 1.5 unit play on what I feel is a particularly strong play.
When Bowl season is over, if my winning % is 53% or higher, I keep the fee. If it's 52.95% or lower, I refund accordingly.
I prefer to text the picks. I also can e-mail them, if I have the time. If neither work for you, we'll figure something out.
You can sign up via PayPal right here at this site. Call 267-752-3343 or e-mail me if you'd like to go the money order route. I'd also recommend you visit my website at www.college-edge.com for investment and handicapping advice.
This Working Stiff is ready to go to work for you. I hope you'll sign up now!
Thanks, Sam ( www.twitter.com/edgysam)
Monday, December 8, 2014
Handicapping College Football - Easy?
The New York Post held a college football handicapping for its columnists, reporters and contributors. Six of the eight would have lost money if they had bet a theoretical $10.00 on every one of their selections.The winner went 114-93 on the year, a 55% winning percentage. Second place went to a contestant who went 109 - 98, a 52.6 winning percentage. Everyone else had a percentage that would have lost money.
The Philadelphia Daily News ran a similar contest. All seven Daily news staffers had percentages that would have lost them money had they invested $10.00 on every one of their picks.
Even more telling, Vegas Vic, the professional handicapper on the Daily news staff, lost $400.00 for the college football season. His average investment per recommendation was $50.00.
In a college football handicapping contest in which I was involved, there were 30 contestants. Sixteen finished with percentages that would have lost those contestants money had they invested $10.00 on all of their contest picks.(In last year's contest, which required 14 picks per week - 7 college, 7 pros - my NFL partner and I finished 3rd with a 57%+. In this year's contest, I finished 6th with 55.4%).
My point is handicapping is not as easy as some of those goofy radio advertisements would have you believe.
This week I will unveil my annual Bowl Offer. I happen to be a working stiff who works seven days a week at his day job. I have a couple true passions in my life, and handicapping college football is one of them. I work my ass off and I haven't given up the dream of making it big in the profession. I know that if you sign up for my upcoming Bowl Offer, I will give you a great chance to make a profit for the bowl season(I hit about 56% last Bowl Season) and I believe you'll have fun doing so.
My price will be inexpensive, and like last year, if I don't hit a certain percentage for my recommendations, over 93% percent of the fee will be refunded. YO, I hope you'll consider it! Thanks.
The Philadelphia Daily News ran a similar contest. All seven Daily news staffers had percentages that would have lost them money had they invested $10.00 on every one of their picks.
Even more telling, Vegas Vic, the professional handicapper on the Daily news staff, lost $400.00 for the college football season. His average investment per recommendation was $50.00.
In a college football handicapping contest in which I was involved, there were 30 contestants. Sixteen finished with percentages that would have lost those contestants money had they invested $10.00 on all of their contest picks.(In last year's contest, which required 14 picks per week - 7 college, 7 pros - my NFL partner and I finished 3rd with a 57%+. In this year's contest, I finished 6th with 55.4%).
My point is handicapping is not as easy as some of those goofy radio advertisements would have you believe.
This week I will unveil my annual Bowl Offer. I happen to be a working stiff who works seven days a week at his day job. I have a couple true passions in my life, and handicapping college football is one of them. I work my ass off and I haven't given up the dream of making it big in the profession. I know that if you sign up for my upcoming Bowl Offer, I will give you a great chance to make a profit for the bowl season(I hit about 56% last Bowl Season) and I believe you'll have fun doing so.
My price will be inexpensive, and like last year, if I don't hit a certain percentage for my recommendations, over 93% percent of the fee will be refunded. YO, I hope you'll consider it! Thanks.
Friday, November 28, 2014
What @EdgySam Gave His #Cleeps: Bonus #Pick for 8:00p.m.
Here are the Thanksgiving and Black Friday picks given to my cleeps:
TCU over Texas: Longhorns got their bowl eligibility prior week. Not as pumped as Horned Frogs
TCU under: Didn't see game, but, was told a dead under game. Oh well.
LSU over A&M: Tigers and Miles good in road fav role, and thought they'd come back from 2 consecutive losses.
LSU game over: A&M D horrible on defense, good on offense. Thought it was good combo. Not!
Missouri over Arkansas: Higher rated team getting points. Had to take Tigers for that reason.
Arizona over ASU: Again much higher rated team under my College Edge ratings only a 1-,2- pt. favorite. Also, liked the revenge and home factors.
UCLA over Stanford: Just didn't feel Cardinal had enough to keep up with Bruins.
CSU 1/2 unit over Air Force: QB Pearson out for Air Force and thought CSU would run successfully vs. the Falcons.
Virginia vs. Virginia Tech under: Both starting QBs playing sub-par vs. very strong defenses. Neither running attack, in my opinion, can make up any kind of difference in ineptness of pass offenses..
TCU over Texas: Longhorns got their bowl eligibility prior week. Not as pumped as Horned Frogs
TCU under: Didn't see game, but, was told a dead under game. Oh well.
LSU over A&M: Tigers and Miles good in road fav role, and thought they'd come back from 2 consecutive losses.
LSU game over: A&M D horrible on defense, good on offense. Thought it was good combo. Not!
Missouri over Arkansas: Higher rated team getting points. Had to take Tigers for that reason.
Arizona over ASU: Again much higher rated team under my College Edge ratings only a 1-,2- pt. favorite. Also, liked the revenge and home factors.
UCLA over Stanford: Just didn't feel Cardinal had enough to keep up with Bruins.
CSU 1/2 unit over Air Force: QB Pearson out for Air Force and thought CSU would run successfully vs. the Falcons.
Virginia vs. Virginia Tech under: Both starting QBs playing sub-par vs. very strong defenses. Neither running attack, in my opinion, can make up any kind of difference in ineptness of pass offenses..
Tuesday, November 25, 2014
@EdgySam: #Ohio @ #MiamiOhio, #ThePick!
While researching tonight's Ohio - Miami contest, I was impressed with the fact Redhawks have not seemed to give up on the season. They only have 2 wins, but, they have hung in there on almost every loss, and that includes games vs. Marshall, Cincinnati and every MAC opponent.
The main reasons are probably the seemingly good job new coach Chuck Martin has turned in, and the play of Notre Dame transfer, and the #12 rated QB of his HS class, Andrew Hendrix.
Look Ohio needs this game to become bowl eligible, but, I have Miami as the higher rated team in this MAC rivalry game. In other words, the higher rated team under my College Edge rating system is getting points. I can't pass up that opportunity.
I gave out the Miami Redhawks to my loyal cleeps.
Still time to sign up for my regular season offer, and, it includes my second favorite college football day of the year, Black Friday. You can sign up right on this page.
If you'd rather wait for my College Bowl Offer, it's one of the fairest you will ever see. It includes a refund if I don't hit a certain percentage of my plays. Thank You.
The main reasons are probably the seemingly good job new coach Chuck Martin has turned in, and the play of Notre Dame transfer, and the #12 rated QB of his HS class, Andrew Hendrix.
Look Ohio needs this game to become bowl eligible, but, I have Miami as the higher rated team in this MAC rivalry game. In other words, the higher rated team under my College Edge rating system is getting points. I can't pass up that opportunity.
I gave out the Miami Redhawks to my loyal cleeps.
Still time to sign up for my regular season offer, and, it includes my second favorite college football day of the year, Black Friday. You can sign up right on this page.
If you'd rather wait for my College Bowl Offer, it's one of the fairest you will ever see. It includes a refund if I don't hit a certain percentage of my plays. Thank You.
Friday, November 21, 2014
@EdgySam: #SanJoseState vs. #UtahState, #The(Bonus)Picks
#SanJoseState goes into this game with a question at QB. With QB Gray, the Spartans will have a tough night vs. one of the most formidable defenses in the country in Utah St. Without Gray, and total inexperience at the QB position, I don't see how SJSU moves the ball at all tonight.
Offensively, Utah St. is by no means a juggernaut, even though they've been getting decent QB play from their 4th string QB. The Spartans play pretty good defense.In fact, the strongest unit on the field for the road team is probably the pass defense.
I don't see how SJSU can keep up tonight offensively vs. a very good defensive squad, and, it doesn't hurt that the Spartans are traveling to a cold weather site.
Take Utah St.
Don't see how SJSU will score with a hurting QB position. Considering Spartans plays decent defense, take the under in the same game.
You still have time to sign up for my regular season offer. It's only $40.00 and will include my second favorite college football day of the year, Black Friday, and all of the upcoming conference tournament games.
Also, stay tuned for my very unique College Bowl Offer. It involves an almost 100% refund if I don't hit a very fair percentage of my bowl picks.
Offensively, Utah St. is by no means a juggernaut, even though they've been getting decent QB play from their 4th string QB. The Spartans play pretty good defense.In fact, the strongest unit on the field for the road team is probably the pass defense.
I don't see how SJSU can keep up tonight offensively vs. a very good defensive squad, and, it doesn't hurt that the Spartans are traveling to a cold weather site.
Take Utah St.
Don't see how SJSU will score with a hurting QB position. Considering Spartans plays decent defense, take the under in the same game.
You still have time to sign up for my regular season offer. It's only $40.00 and will include my second favorite college football day of the year, Black Friday, and all of the upcoming conference tournament games.
Also, stay tuned for my very unique College Bowl Offer. It involves an almost 100% refund if I don't hit a very fair percentage of my bowl picks.
Thursday, November 20, 2014
@EdgySam: #KSU vs #WestVirginia, My #Pick Was...
I'm going against one of my favorite coaches of all time, but, my College Edge ratings tell me West Virginia should be around a 7-pt. favorite in the game. Except for the letdown loss to Texas, Mountaineers have played everyone on the schedule tough, particularly Baylor and TCU.
I like WVa QB Trickett, I like that the Mountaineers are home, and, I totally expect the home team to respond to their recent losses.
I gave out West Virginia to my cleeps.
I like WVa QB Trickett, I like that the Mountaineers are home, and, I totally expect the home team to respond to their recent losses.
I gave out West Virginia to my cleeps.
Wednesday, November 19, 2014
@EdgySam:#BowlingGreen vs.#Toledo, #TheBonusPick
#BowlingGreen has the better defense in their MAC battle with Toledo. The Mud Hens have injury problems at QB. Toledo does have a strong running game and is playing home, but, in my opinion, the spread in this game is too high.
Take Bowling Green.
If you'd like to sign up for the rest of the regular season, what the heck, I'm only charging $40.00! That's less than what reputable handicappers like those at the Gold Sheet charge for one stinking day. And, I'd measure my results with anyone from the Gold Sheet or any other service.
If you'd like to wait for my Bowl Offer, know that it's one of the most unique offer of its kind. I offer an almost 100% refund if I don't hit a certain percentage. Stay tuned. Hope you'll use this page to sign up.
Thanks. Sam
Take Bowling Green.
If you'd like to sign up for the rest of the regular season, what the heck, I'm only charging $40.00! That's less than what reputable handicappers like those at the Gold Sheet charge for one stinking day. And, I'd measure my results with anyone from the Gold Sheet or any other service.
If you'd like to wait for my Bowl Offer, know that it's one of the most unique offer of its kind. I offer an almost 100% refund if I don't hit a certain percentage. Stay tuned. Hope you'll use this page to sign up.
Thanks. Sam
Monday, November 17, 2014
@EdgySam Reviews His Saturday Picks for his #Cleeps
Here are the picks I gave to my cleeps this past Saturday. It was a nice day. I went 7-3.
North Carolina - Pitt over: TarHeels have horrible defense, but, very good offense. Nice combo for over.
South Carolina - Florida over: Gamecocks defense has been surprisingly bad this year. Their offense has still been pretty good. Nice combo for over. Not in this game.
Air Force - Nevada over: Recent history of high scoring games here. Figured Falcons would move their option vs. Nevada. Figured QB Fajardo would move ball vs. the Force.
Northwestern: Disappointing team, but, their returning starters made them dangerous, and thought spread was too high.
Arizona - Washington game over: just thought defenses weren't up to task vs. good offenses.
Mississippi State: I had them rated higher than Alabama under my college edge ratings. I think Bulldogs might be able to beat Crimson Tide on neutral field.
Georgia: Let down on Auburn's part, and, still feel Bulldogs are a very dangerous team.
Missouri: I had them rated them higher than Texas A&M under my college edge ratings.
Miami: I had Hurricanes rated higher than FSU under my college edge ratings. Oh well. Blown 16-pt lead.
Texas - Oklahoma St.: two sub-par, starting quarterbacks playing against decent to good defenses.
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North Carolina - Pitt over: TarHeels have horrible defense, but, very good offense. Nice combo for over.
South Carolina - Florida over: Gamecocks defense has been surprisingly bad this year. Their offense has still been pretty good. Nice combo for over. Not in this game.
Air Force - Nevada over: Recent history of high scoring games here. Figured Falcons would move their option vs. Nevada. Figured QB Fajardo would move ball vs. the Force.
Northwestern: Disappointing team, but, their returning starters made them dangerous, and thought spread was too high.
Arizona - Washington game over: just thought defenses weren't up to task vs. good offenses.
Mississippi State: I had them rated higher than Alabama under my college edge ratings. I think Bulldogs might be able to beat Crimson Tide on neutral field.
Georgia: Let down on Auburn's part, and, still feel Bulldogs are a very dangerous team.
Missouri: I had them rated them higher than Texas A&M under my college edge ratings.
Miami: I had Hurricanes rated higher than FSU under my college edge ratings. Oh well. Blown 16-pt lead.
Texas - Oklahoma St.: two sub-par, starting quarterbacks playing against decent to good defenses.
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Saturday, November 15, 2014
@EdgySam: #ThePicks So Far Today. Four More Coming!
Here are the plays I gave to my cleeps: North Carolina game over; South Carolina over; Air Force game over; Northwestern; Arizona game over; Mississippi State.
I will have 4 plays for my cleeps tonight.
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I will have 4 plays for my cleeps tonight.
If you'd like to sign up for the balance of the regular season, crap, I only charge $40.00. I hope you'll consider it. I feel good. Join me.
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Thursday, November 13, 2014
@EdgySam: #EastCarolina vs #Cincy & #California vs #USC, #THEPICKS
I had Cincy rated higher than East Carolina and they came into their AAC home game as an underdog.
I gave out Cincy to my loyal cleeps.
I gave out USC over Cal to my cleeps. I like Cal's offense, but, have big questions about their defense. I think the Trojans are well balanced on both offense and defense. It doesn't hurt that USC is the home team and comes off a bye.
I gave out Cincy to my loyal cleeps.
I gave out USC over Cal to my cleeps. I like Cal's offense, but, have big questions about their defense. I think the Trojans are well balanced on both offense and defense. It doesn't hurt that USC is the home team and comes off a bye.
Wednesday, November 12, 2014
@EdgySam: #KentState vs.#BowlingGreen & #BallState vs.#UMass
Ball St has played the tougher MAC schedule to date as compared to UMass; I have the Falcons rated higher than UMass under one of my rating sysyems; HC Lembo has been very good in road dog spots(8-3 coming into '14).
I gave out Ball St to my cleeps.
In the other MAC game tonight(have I written how much I like these weekday MAC games?), I'm counting on Bowling Green needing this game to stay in contention in the Eastern division of the conference, while also counting on Kent St. not having enough weapons to keep up. It doesn't hurt that the Falcons are home for this important matchup.
I gave out Bowling Green to my cleeps.
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I gave out Ball St to my cleeps.
In the other MAC game tonight(have I written how much I like these weekday MAC games?), I'm counting on Bowling Green needing this game to stay in contention in the Eastern division of the conference, while also counting on Kent St. not having enough weapons to keep up. It doesn't hurt that the Falcons are home for this important matchup.
I gave out Bowling Green to my cleeps.
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Tuesday, November 11, 2014
@EdgySam: #Akron/ #Buffalo & #Toledo/ #NoIllinois, #THEPICKS
I had the #Buffalo #Bulls rated almost even with Akron in tonight's MAC contest. I would normally have given out the New York team tonight, but, after last week's sorry-a-- performance vs. Ohio, there is no way I could give out the Bulls. Their HC of five years, Jeff Quinn, was fired in mid-season, and the question has to be asked: why should Buffalo show up in tonight's game vs. Akron?
In the Toledo vs. Northern Illinois game, I asked my cleeps to tune in for the very start of airing of this ESPN contest. My instructions were as follows: if Toledo's QB Woodside, the 2nd stringer who took over after the injury of starter Ely, was out with an injury, take Northern Illinois in a 1/2 unit play.
If Woodside were to play, my instructions were to stay away from the game. It was my opinion that in that circumstance Northern Illinois and Toledo were very evenly matched and not worthy of a recommendation.
It turned out QB Woodside was out for the game, freshman Julian got the start at QB, and I did recommend a 1/2 unit play on Northern Illinois!
In the Toledo vs. Northern Illinois game, I asked my cleeps to tune in for the very start of airing of this ESPN contest. My instructions were as follows: if Toledo's QB Woodside, the 2nd stringer who took over after the injury of starter Ely, was out with an injury, take Northern Illinois in a 1/2 unit play.
If Woodside were to play, my instructions were to stay away from the game. It was my opinion that in that circumstance Northern Illinois and Toledo were very evenly matched and not worthy of a recommendation.
It turned out QB Woodside was out for the game, freshman Julian got the start at QB, and I did recommend a 1/2 unit play on Northern Illinois!
Saturday, November 8, 2014
@EdgySam: #NotreDame/#ASU, #ThePick for the #Cleeps
I keep going back to the well, but, I continue to think Arizona State is one of the most overrated teams in the country. I am paying for that opinion. I went against them vs. Stanford and Washington, and I lost both times.
I continue to see a Sun Devil team that has a new QB this year, who's played ok, and who has replaced a very good Taylor Kelly(injured early in the year), and a defense that returns a grand total of 1.5 starters from '13.
Ironically, I'm taking a Notre Dame team that I also believe is overrated, but, with the positive play of QB Golson, and an impressive showing on the road vs. FSU, I like the road team in this important matchup( HC Kelly an impressive 15-7 over the years as a road dog).
I gave out Notre Dame in a 1/2 unit play to my cleeps.
I continue to see a Sun Devil team that has a new QB this year, who's played ok, and who has replaced a very good Taylor Kelly(injured early in the year), and a defense that returns a grand total of 1.5 starters from '13.
Ironically, I'm taking a Notre Dame team that I also believe is overrated, but, with the positive play of QB Golson, and an impressive showing on the road vs. FSU, I like the road team in this important matchup( HC Kelly an impressive 15-7 over the years as a road dog).
I gave out Notre Dame in a 1/2 unit play to my cleeps.
Friday, November 7, 2014
@EdgySam: #Memphis at #Temple, #ThePick to my #Cleeps
I won't get into this too deeply because I'm picking against my alma mater.
I gave out to my cleeps the very improved Memphis in a 1-unit play.
I gave out to my cleeps the very improved Memphis in a 1-unit play.
Thursday, November 6, 2014
@EdgySam: #Clemson vs. #WakeForest, #THEPICK
How the heck did Clemson vs. Wake Forest get prime time on ESPN?
In the preseason, I wrote that the Demon Deacons might be the worst team of any of the major conferences. I'm not sure I feel any differently tonight. They can't rush the ball. They can't pass the ball. They don't play good defense vs. the run. They have, on occasion, played decent pass defense.
I wanted to give out Clemson as a recommendation to my cleeps, but, the Tiger offense hasn't been much to write about either, and I was hesitant about giving 21 points on the road.
I don't see Wake Forest scoring more than 7-10 points tonight, but, I still was fearful that the 42 point total for the game was a little low, considering how bad the Demon Deacons defense could be.
For my cleeps, I recommended having fun with the game and invest small amounts on Clemson and the under in the game.
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In the preseason, I wrote that the Demon Deacons might be the worst team of any of the major conferences. I'm not sure I feel any differently tonight. They can't rush the ball. They can't pass the ball. They don't play good defense vs. the run. They have, on occasion, played decent pass defense.
I wanted to give out Clemson as a recommendation to my cleeps, but, the Tiger offense hasn't been much to write about either, and I was hesitant about giving 21 points on the road.
I don't see Wake Forest scoring more than 7-10 points tonight, but, I still was fearful that the 42 point total for the game was a little low, considering how bad the Demon Deacons defense could be.
For my cleeps, I recommended having fun with the game and invest small amounts on Clemson and the under in the game.
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Wednesday, November 5, 2014
@EdgySam: #Buffalo vs #Ohio; #NorthernIllinois vs #BallSt, #ThePicks
Like #Akron last night, not sure why #Ohio is favored by this much tonight. They've lost to C.Mich, B.Green and Western Mich by scores of 10-28, 13-31, and 21-42, respectively, and beat Akron by the slin score of 23-20.
Buffalo has the better QB by far in Licata, an emerging MAC star in RB Taylor and the all-important, experienced O-line(4.5 starters back from '13).
Gave out Buffalo to my cleeps as a 1-unit play.
In the other MAC game, EdgySam just doesn't see the offensive weapons for either Northern Illinois or Ball St to warrant this high as totals line for this contest.
Gave out the under to my cleeps in this as a 1/2 unit play.
Buffalo has the better QB by far in Licata, an emerging MAC star in RB Taylor and the all-important, experienced O-line(4.5 starters back from '13).
Gave out Buffalo to my cleeps as a 1-unit play.
In the other MAC game, EdgySam just doesn't see the offensive weapons for either Northern Illinois or Ball St to warrant this high as totals line for this contest.
Gave out the under to my cleeps in this as a 1/2 unit play.
Tuesday, November 4, 2014
@EdgySam: #BowlingGreen vs #Akron/ #Toledo vs #KentSt, #ThePicks
Not sure why totals in #BowlingGreen vs. #Akron game is so high. The Zips cannot be described as dynamic offensively, and Bowling Green is without its stellar QB from '13, Matt Johnson( he's out for year with an injury). Both defenses are good, if not stellar, so just think present totals too high.
EdgySam gave out the under in Bowling Green vs. Akron contest.
In the Toledo vs. Kent St. contest, another situation where I just don't see how KSU can keep up with the Rockets pretty high-powered offense. They've shown little offensive ability in moving the ball either on the ground or through the air. EdgySam gave out Toledo to his cleeps.
I also recommended a fun, non-recommendation parlay on Bowling Green and the over in the Toledo/KSU game.
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EdgySam gave out the under in Bowling Green vs. Akron contest.
In the Toledo vs. Kent St. contest, another situation where I just don't see how KSU can keep up with the Rockets pretty high-powered offense. They've shown little offensive ability in moving the ball either on the ground or through the air. EdgySam gave out Toledo to his cleeps.
I also recommended a fun, non-recommendation parlay on Bowling Green and the over in the Toledo/KSU game.
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Saturday, October 25, 2014
@EdgySam: #ASU at #Washington, #THEPICK
@EdgySam simply does not believe in ASU. They have only 1.5 starters back on defense,and 4.5 back on offense, including the loss of '13 starting QB Kelly. I have the home team, Washington, rated higher than the Sun Devils, and, yet, they come into the game an underdog. As a result, I gave out the Huskies to my cleeps.
I also gave out a 1/2 unit recommendation on the under. Lots of rain and wind forecast for the game, and I thought the 60+ total was too high.
I also gave out a 1/2 unit recommendation on the under. Lots of rain and wind forecast for the game, and I thought the 60+ total was too high.
@EdgySam:The Final Comp Pick, #AR vs #WSU
Arizona passes the ball very proficiently: 434, 231, 278, 520,287,395!!! WSU fortunately for us, plays pretty sub-par pass defense( 281, 329, 527,284 to Rutg, Oreg, Cal, and Stan, respectively).
WSU passes the ball very proficiently: 532, 389, 436, 417, 734, 292!!! Arizona, fortunately for us, plays pretty sub-par pass defense(252, 228, 321, 380, 302, 185(huh)).
This game should, hopefully, get into the upper 80s. To be honest, I'm wondering why totals line is so low.
Take the over in the final comp pick of 2014.
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WSU passes the ball very proficiently: 532, 389, 436, 417, 734, 292!!! Arizona, fortunately for us, plays pretty sub-par pass defense(252, 228, 321, 380, 302, 185(huh)).
This game should, hopefully, get into the upper 80s. To be honest, I'm wondering why totals line is so low.
Take the over in the final comp pick of 2014.
Hope you'll decide to sign up. NFL picks for tomorrow are ready to go, and you'll get the Breeder's Cup picks too. If you'd rather not pay by PayPal, make arrangements to send a money order.
Regardless of what happens, I will continue to work my butt off for the guys and ladies who do sign up,and, I'll continue to hope my big break is coming.
@EdgySam: #Temple vs.#UCF, #THEPICK!
I want to keep this simple because it pains me to make this pick, but, I have UCF rated considerably higher than my alma mater, Temple. The line is dropping, and, in reality, it probably should be going the other way. I look at making this pick as I win either way: if UCF wins, I'll be relatively happy; if Temple wins, I'll be very happy.
Take UCF.
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Take UCF.
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@EdgySam: #UNLV at #UTAHST, #THEPICK
You absolutely cannot trust UNLV, but, I have them rated higher than Utah St under my CollegeEdge team ratings and the Rebels are underdogs. Also, Utah St. is down to its 3rd string QB.
No recommendation on this game, but, tie UNLV into a small parlay with a team you like. I just can't give out a team as bad as UNLV in a recommendation.
No recommendation on this game, but, tie UNLV into a small parlay with a team you like. I just can't give out a team as bad as UNLV in a recommendation.
@EdgySam: #WestVirginia at #OklahomaState, #THEPICK!
In handicapping this game, I came to much the same conclusion as I did in picking Cincinnati last night. Oklahoma St. has been surprisingly sub-par this year, and I just don't see how they can keep up with a West Virginia team that's been getting tremendous production from QB Trickett, a decent complimentary running game, and a pretty strong defense.
Yes, I'm hoping the Mountaineers have no letdown after the big win last week, but, I'm counting on my CollegeEdge ratings holding true in this Big 12 contest.
Take West Virginia.
No plays at Noon(I took Arkansas, Virginia and Nebraska in my 2nd Annual Handicapping Contest for my early picks, and I'm presently in 3rd place!), so comp picks will end with games that start at 6:00p.m. or earlier.
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Yes, I'm hoping the Mountaineers have no letdown after the big win last week, but, I'm counting on my CollegeEdge ratings holding true in this Big 12 contest.
Take West Virginia.
No plays at Noon(I took Arkansas, Virginia and Nebraska in my 2nd Annual Handicapping Contest for my early picks, and I'm presently in 3rd place!), so comp picks will end with games that start at 6:00p.m. or earlier.
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Friday, October 24, 2014
@EdgySam: #Oregon/#Cal & #BYU/#BoiseState, #ThePicks
BYU too many injuries. I like HC Bronco Mendenhall getting his team up after three straight losses, but, not enough to make it a recommendation.
Like Oregon, but, not enough to make Ducks a recommendation. Road games vs. WSU and UCLA are scaring me away from a recommendation.
In a fun parlay, make a small investment in BYU and Oregon. But, no recommendation.
Comp picks end with Noon games Saturday. I'll work hard for You. Sign up now
Like Oregon, but, not enough to make Ducks a recommendation. Road games vs. WSU and UCLA are scaring me away from a recommendation.
In a fun parlay, make a small investment in BYU and Oregon. But, no recommendation.
Comp picks end with Noon games Saturday. I'll work hard for You. Sign up now
@EdgySam: #USF at #Cincinnati, #THEPICK!
In answer to question I posed last night, no, I don't believe USF's win over Tulsa last week is the start of a positive pattern for the Bulls.I'm going with my collegeedge ratings tonight:
Take Cincinnati in a small( 1/2 unit) play.
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Take Cincinnati in a small( 1/2 unit) play.
NFL picks are ready to go for whoever signs up for my offer. Last comp picks are at Noon Saturday.
Thursday, October 23, 2014
@EdgySam: #Miami vs. #VirginiaTech, #THEPICK
In a very similar situation to tonight's first college game, I don't see how Virginia Tech will bring enough offense to this ACC matchup in order to keep up with Miami's more prolific attack.
The Hokies have been pretty decimated by injuries at the RB position, and QB Brewer has been unable to pick up the slack, having thrown 11 Tds this year, but, an equal amount of interceptions.
The most influential athlete on the field tonight will be the Hurricanes RB Johnson, but, it is also nice to note that QB Kaaya has played steadily better all year, and, I think, is a threat in his own right.
With RB Johnson leading the way, take Miami in a small play, or, 1/2 of your normal Unit play.
EdgySam thinks game will go over the totals, but, does not like it strong enough to give it a recommendation.
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The Hokies have been pretty decimated by injuries at the RB position, and QB Brewer has been unable to pick up the slack, having thrown 11 Tds this year, but, an equal amount of interceptions.
The most influential athlete on the field tonight will be the Hurricanes RB Johnson, but, it is also nice to note that QB Kaaya has played steadily better all year, and, I think, is a threat in his own right.
With RB Johnson leading the way, take Miami in a small play, or, 1/2 of your normal Unit play.
EdgySam thinks game will go over the totals, but, does not like it strong enough to give it a recommendation.
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@EdgySam: #UConn at #EastCarolina, #THEPICK
An East Carolina team, which has one of the most prolific QBs in the country in Shane Carden(16tds/4int!), gets a chance to go center-stage tonight in their AAC matchup vs. UConn.
The Pirates are home, they can pass, for sure, and rush the ball, and, you know what, they play pretty decent defense.
The Huskies have played some decent defense this year, but, I don't see how the teams from Storrs, Connecticut(where?) can keep up in any way offensively. Their rushing and passing attacks have been absolutely putrid.
Despite the big line, small play on East Carolina.
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The Pirates are home, they can pass, for sure, and rush the ball, and, you know what, they play pretty decent defense.
The Huskies have played some decent defense this year, but, I don't see how the teams from Storrs, Connecticut(where?) can keep up in any way offensively. Their rushing and passing attacks have been absolutely putrid.
Despite the big line, small play on East Carolina.
A small play is equivalent to 1/2 of your normal unit play.
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Tuesday, October 21, 2014
@EdgySam: Is Head Coach Record vs. Spread Important?
You've heard this comment before: a college head coach should try to cover the spread in order to keep the alumni and boosters happy. It's true the alumni and boosters are probably real happy when the alma mater covers the spread on Saturdays. But, if that's what's important to a head coach, he'll soon be enjoying those games from the same seats the alumni and boosters are sitting in.
I think the spread record of a head coach is important to me, as a handicapper, because it lets me know if the coach is meeting expectations.
If a head coach has a winning record vs. the spread, it very simply means to me the coach in question is meeting or surpassing the expectations of the line makers. It's tough maintaining a winning record in most programs, period. A consistent winning record vs. the spread is even more noteworthy.
For example, tonight's head coach for ULL, Mark Hudspeth, is in his 4th year in that position. His record in his first three years against the spread was 22-16 ( his straight-up record in that same span was a sterling 27-12). That's a record that this handicapper cannot ignore. When I do my CollegeEdge ratings, ULL's HC successes both straight-up and vs. the spread figure prominently in my final numbers.
On the other hand, the head coach from ULL's opponent tonight, Arkansas St, is in his first year as a head coach...anywhere. Until I learn more about HC Blake Anderson, I must give a decisive handicapping advantage to the experienced Hudspeth.
So, the bottom line for me is simple: if a coach has a winning record vs. the spread, he's meeting expectations, and, as a result, is a very important factor in the handicapping process.
Some of my favorite spread coaches: 1) Bill Snyder. Others include: David Cutcliffe, Saban, Todd Graham, Kirk Ferentz, Bobby Petrino, Urban Meyer, Al Golden, Mike Gundy........
I think the spread record of a head coach is important to me, as a handicapper, because it lets me know if the coach is meeting expectations.
If a head coach has a winning record vs. the spread, it very simply means to me the coach in question is meeting or surpassing the expectations of the line makers. It's tough maintaining a winning record in most programs, period. A consistent winning record vs. the spread is even more noteworthy.
For example, tonight's head coach for ULL, Mark Hudspeth, is in his 4th year in that position. His record in his first three years against the spread was 22-16 ( his straight-up record in that same span was a sterling 27-12). That's a record that this handicapper cannot ignore. When I do my CollegeEdge ratings, ULL's HC successes both straight-up and vs. the spread figure prominently in my final numbers.
On the other hand, the head coach from ULL's opponent tonight, Arkansas St, is in his first year as a head coach...anywhere. Until I learn more about HC Blake Anderson, I must give a decisive handicapping advantage to the experienced Hudspeth.
So, the bottom line for me is simple: if a coach has a winning record vs. the spread, he's meeting expectations, and, as a result, is a very important factor in the handicapping process.
Some of my favorite spread coaches: 1) Bill Snyder. Others include: David Cutcliffe, Saban, Todd Graham, Kirk Ferentz, Bobby Petrino, Urban Meyer, Al Golden, Mike Gundy........
@EdgySam: #ArkansasState vs. #ULL, #THEPICK!
Do I fear the possibility of taking ULL two weeks in a row? Absolutely. The team the Cajuns are facing is better than the Texas St. team ULL played last week, and Arkansas St. is riding a nice 3-game winning streak.
BUT, ULL is a team that comes into their home game tonight in Lafayette as an underdog, despite the fact I have the Cajuns as the higher rated team under my CollegeEdge ratings.
Some reasons ULL comes into the game rated higher is more experience at the QB position(though new QB Knighten has played pretty well this year for the Red Wolves), and most of the other offensive positions as well, the coaching edge, in my opinion, of 4-yr. HC Hudspeth over 1st year HC Anderson, and the fact ULL is playing home, where the Cajuns have been a home underdog only one time in coach Hudspeth's tenure at Lafayette. By the way, ULL covered in that only home underdog situation.
Will this be a tough game tonight? No doubt, in my mind, it will be, but, my ratings tell me the wrong team is favored.
ULL in a small play. I would define a small play as a 1/2 Unit play.
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BUT, ULL is a team that comes into their home game tonight in Lafayette as an underdog, despite the fact I have the Cajuns as the higher rated team under my CollegeEdge ratings.
Some reasons ULL comes into the game rated higher is more experience at the QB position(though new QB Knighten has played pretty well this year for the Red Wolves), and most of the other offensive positions as well, the coaching edge, in my opinion, of 4-yr. HC Hudspeth over 1st year HC Anderson, and the fact ULL is playing home, where the Cajuns have been a home underdog only one time in coach Hudspeth's tenure at Lafayette. By the way, ULL covered in that only home underdog situation.
Will this be a tough game tonight? No doubt, in my mind, it will be, but, my ratings tell me the wrong team is favored.
ULL in a small play. I would define a small play as a 1/2 Unit play.
These weeknight games will be the last of the CollegeEdge complimentary releases.
You'll notice on this page my 2014 College Football Regular Season Offer, which will also include the Breeder's Cup picks, and NFL picks from other handicappers who specialize in those sports.
I hope you'll consider signing up for the balance of the regular season. I hit 73% for my cleeps in 2011! I can do it again because I work my butt off.
Saturday, October 18, 2014
@EdgySam: #Stanford vs #ASU & #Nevada vs #BYU, #THEPICKS!
I have Nevada as the higher rated team in their contest vs. BYU. They come into this away game as an underdog. The Cougars have two major injuries entering the game, one on each side of the ball, and each injured player is probably the best player on their respective units(QB Hill; LB Fua).
I also like that the far more experienced QB in tonight's game is 4-yr.-starter Fajardo.
Take Nevada
ASU has a porous defense that has only 1.5 starters back from the '13 team. No matter how good Stanford's defense is, and it is good, innovative HC Graham of ASU will figure out how to put some points on the board. Surprised the totals line is dropping, and I LIKE IT.
Take the over in the Stanford-ASU game.
As written above, the Sun Devils have only 1.5 starters back from '13, and it shows. Stanford not an offensive show, but, this is the worst PAC 12 team they've faced this year, and I have no doubt they'll score a decent amount of points. The Cardinal defense is not up to last year's ability, but, the unit is still very good.
I also like the fact HC Shaw is 10-4 as a road favorite, and ASU is coming off a very lucky win over USC.
Take Stanford.
This is the last full week of complimentary picks. Picks will continue through at least this Thursday night. Stay tuned
I also like that the far more experienced QB in tonight's game is 4-yr.-starter Fajardo.
Take Nevada
ASU has a porous defense that has only 1.5 starters back from the '13 team. No matter how good Stanford's defense is, and it is good, innovative HC Graham of ASU will figure out how to put some points on the board. Surprised the totals line is dropping, and I LIKE IT.
Take the over in the Stanford-ASU game.
As written above, the Sun Devils have only 1.5 starters back from '13, and it shows. Stanford not an offensive show, but, this is the worst PAC 12 team they've faced this year, and I have no doubt they'll score a decent amount of points. The Cardinal defense is not up to last year's ability, but, the unit is still very good.
I also like the fact HC Shaw is 10-4 as a road favorite, and ASU is coming off a very lucky win over USC.
Take Stanford.
This is the last full week of complimentary picks. Picks will continue through at least this Thursday night. Stay tuned
@EDgySam: #NotreDame at #FSU, #THEPICK!
Notre Dame has 3.5 starters back on defense from '13. They have 5 starters back from '13 on defense. This is just too big a step up in their first true road game of the year.
I just have a feeling QB Winston somehow responds to all the negative stuff going on.
Seminoles are the much higher rated team under my CollegeEdge ratings.They won't lose tonight.
Take Florida State
I just have a feeling QB Winston somehow responds to all the negative stuff going on.
Seminoles are the much higher rated team under my CollegeEdge ratings.They won't lose tonight.
Take Florida State
@EdgySam: #Nebraska vs. #Northwestern. #THEPICK!
I have Northwestern rated higher than Nebraska under my Collegeedge team ratings. They come into their home game vs. the Cornhuskers as underdogs. That's almost an automatic play for me. Am I confident? No.
Take Northwestern in a small play.
Take Northwestern in a small play.
@EdgySam: #OkSt/#TCU & #Georgia/#Arkansas, #THEPICKS
#Edgysam and the CollegeEdge ratings have Arkansas rated higher than Georgia. Yes, I'm nervous about that fact, but, I do think after two tough losses, the Hogs will come to play vs. Georgia.
Take Arkansas
Take the over in the same game.
In the OKSt vs. TCU game, the best part of both teams are the defenses. 62+ points is too much, I believe.
Take the under.
Also, I expect a TCU letdown after their first loss( and what a heart breaker it was)
In a smaller play, take Oklahoma St
Take Arkansas
Take the over in the same game.
In the OKSt vs. TCU game, the best part of both teams are the defenses. 62+ points is too much, I believe.
Take the under.
Also, I expect a TCU letdown after their first loss( and what a heart breaker it was)
In a smaller play, take Oklahoma St
Friday, October 17, 2014
@EdgySam: #Baylor vs. #WestVirginia, #THEPICK!
In the Noon games on Saturday, I was tempted to give out #Tulsa, but, decided I couldn't give out a team that has played pretty bad this year(though USF has played equally bad).
In researching the early games, I have a team that's home, that's rated higher than the visiting team under my collegeedge ratings, but, still comes into their home game as an underdog.
Okay, you have 10 seconds to guess which early-playing team am I writing about?
Time's up.
West Virginia has the QB play, enough good running backs, and a pretty decent defense to stay close to the Baylor Bears and possibly get the upset. I think Baylor is over-rated and I'm hoping this is the game where my opinion comes to fruition.
The Mountaineers played Alabama and Oklahoma tough, and, I believe they will do the same, at home, vs. Baylor.
Take West Virginia
In researching the early games, I have a team that's home, that's rated higher than the visiting team under my collegeedge ratings, but, still comes into their home game as an underdog.
Okay, you have 10 seconds to guess which early-playing team am I writing about?
Time's up.
West Virginia has the QB play, enough good running backs, and a pretty decent defense to stay close to the Baylor Bears and possibly get the upset. I think Baylor is over-rated and I'm hoping this is the game where my opinion comes to fruition.
The Mountaineers played Alabama and Oklahoma tough, and, I believe they will do the same, at home, vs. Baylor.
Take West Virginia
@EdgySam: #Temple #Owls vs.#Houston, #THEPICK!
The strength of both teams, tonight, are the defenses. Houston has 9 starters back on defense from their '13 squad. The Cougar defense is playing well against both the run and the pass.
Temple's defense has played well to date, and, I think they will should give Houston's offense some trouble tonight. Why? Houston's projected starter at QB this year was O'Korn. He has not played well. His backup, Greg Ward will probably play a lot tonight, and I just think my alma mater, led by tackling machine LB Tyler Matakevich, will slow down the green starting QB.
I'll stay away from picking a side in the game, though I do think the Owls will keep it close.
Take the under in the Temple vs. Houston AAC matchup.
Go Owls!
This will be the last full week of complimentary games.
Temple's defense has played well to date, and, I think they will should give Houston's offense some trouble tonight. Why? Houston's projected starter at QB this year was O'Korn. He has not played well. His backup, Greg Ward will probably play a lot tonight, and I just think my alma mater, led by tackling machine LB Tyler Matakevich, will slow down the green starting QB.
I'll stay away from picking a side in the game, though I do think the Owls will keep it close.
Take the under in the Temple vs. Houston AAC matchup.
Go Owls!
This will be the last full week of complimentary games.
@EdgySam: #FresnoState vs. #BoiseState, #THEPICK!
My #Collegeedge ratings have the #FresnoState vs. #BoiseState a lot closer than the present line of the Broncos favored by 17.
The Bulldogs have 9 starters back on defense from the '13 squad, have a decent running back group, and, what I believe is a pretty decent coaching staff.
Fresno St., one of the elites of the Mountain West Conference, also has a nice 18-10 record over the last ten years as a road underdog. Boise St. probably wins tonight, but, I believe the game will be a lot closer than the spread would indicate.
Take Fresno St.
This will be the last week of complimentary picks. Stay tuned.
The Bulldogs have 9 starters back on defense from the '13 squad, have a decent running back group, and, what I believe is a pretty decent coaching staff.
Fresno St., one of the elites of the Mountain West Conference, also has a nice 18-10 record over the last ten years as a road underdog. Boise St. probably wins tonight, but, I believe the game will be a lot closer than the spread would indicate.
Take Fresno St.
This will be the last week of complimentary picks. Stay tuned.
Thursday, October 16, 2014
@EdgySam: #Utah vs. #OregonState, #THEPICK!
Like #Pitt, #OregonState is the higher rated team over #Utah tonight, but, comes into their home game as an underdog. Like the #Panthers, I just don't have a lot of faith in the Beavers this year. In their only real tough matchup of the year, they got throttled by USC.
I'm taking Oregon State because they are the higher rated team, but, I recommend only a small play on the Beavers.
This will be the last week of the complimentary picks.
I'm taking Oregon State because they are the higher rated team, but, I recommend only a small play on the Beavers.
This will be the last week of the complimentary picks.
@EdgySam: #VirginiaTech vs. #Pitt, #THEPICK
In the #VirginiaTech vs. #Pitt contest, you have two QBs in Voytik and Brewer, respectively, who have played in a sub-par manner.
Virginia Tech has lost its top RB in Edmunds to injury, and another contributor at the RB position in Williams. The Panther rush offense started strong this year, but, has become mediocre in its last three games vs. Virginia, Akron and Iowa.
Both teams have played decently against the pass, not as well against the run. My hope both teams will turn to grind it out offensive attacks.
The under is the play in the Virginia Tech/Pitt contest.
I have Pitt rated higher than the Hokies under my collegeedge ratings, and Pitt is the slight underdog. I just don't like that the Panthers have played progressively worse each game they've played since the FIU win. For that reason, just a small play on Pitt in this game.
This will probably be the last week of complimentary picks.
Virginia Tech has lost its top RB in Edmunds to injury, and another contributor at the RB position in Williams. The Panther rush offense started strong this year, but, has become mediocre in its last three games vs. Virginia, Akron and Iowa.
Both teams have played decently against the pass, not as well against the run. My hope both teams will turn to grind it out offensive attacks.
The under is the play in the Virginia Tech/Pitt contest.
I have Pitt rated higher than the Hokies under my collegeedge ratings, and Pitt is the slight underdog. I just don't like that the Panthers have played progressively worse each game they've played since the FIU win. For that reason, just a small play on Pitt in this game.
This will probably be the last week of complimentary picks.
Tuesday, October 14, 2014
@EdgySam: #ULL at #TexasSt, #THEPICK!
ULL is the higher rated team tonight in their away game at Texas St, according to my CollegeEdge team ratings. I think they should be favored in the game. They are underdogs.
ULL is well coached by Mike Hudspeth, they have experience at the QB position with senior Broadway, all of their '13 RBs in the fold and 4 starters back in the offensive line. They also have 7 starters back on defense.
Texas St. has decent returnees back on offense, but, I honestly don't think they match the Cajuns' talented offensive weapons. The Bobcats have only 3 starters back on defense after losing their best defensive player, LB Michael Orakpo, for the year to injury.
I do fear the fact Texas St. is home and are coached by a very good coach, Dennis Franchione.
Look for QB Broadway and RBs Harris and McGuire to lead the way tonight.
Take ULL Cajuns.
ULL is well coached by Mike Hudspeth, they have experience at the QB position with senior Broadway, all of their '13 RBs in the fold and 4 starters back in the offensive line. They also have 7 starters back on defense.
Texas St. has decent returnees back on offense, but, I honestly don't think they match the Cajuns' talented offensive weapons. The Bobcats have only 3 starters back on defense after losing their best defensive player, LB Michael Orakpo, for the year to injury.
I do fear the fact Texas St. is home and are coached by a very good coach, Dennis Franchione.
Look for QB Broadway and RBs Harris and McGuire to lead the way tonight.
Take ULL Cajuns.
Saturday, October 11, 2014
@EdgySam: #AirForce vs. #UtahState, #THEPICK
#AirForce has beaten #BoiseState and #Navy in consecutive weeks in impressive fashion. They come into this game tonight at Utah State as an uderdog. Despite the Aggies almost inexplicable win over BYU last week, the fact is this Logan, Utah squad has only 4.5 starters back on defense, and 3.5 starters back on offense, which includes the loss of all-star QB Keeton.
The higher rated team under my collegeedge ratings is AirForce, and they come into this game as a sizable underdog.
Take the Falcons.
The higher rated team under my collegeedge ratings is AirForce, and they come into this game as a sizable underdog.
Take the Falcons.
@EdgySam: #OleMiss @ #TexasAM, #THEPICK!
Gulp: #TexasAM home on a Saturday night? The game starts at 9:15p.m.? I smell bedlam. That's okay. In my opinion, the wrong team is favored in the game, and, yes, I did take into account the Aggies are home on a Saturday night. Mississippi State didn't let down after their big win over Texas A&M last week, and I don't think Ole Miss will let down tonight after their big win last over 'Bama.
Take Mississippi
Take Mississippi
@EdgySam: #Washington vs. #California, #THEPICK!
Yeah: Always thrilled when the team I like is being bet against by the public. I have Washington as the higher rated team under my collegeedge ratings. The Huskies are getting points in their game vs. California.
Doesn't hurt that in the Stanford game, Washington played tough in their 13-20 loss.
Take Washington
Doesn't hurt that in the Stanford game, Washington played tough in their 13-20 loss.
Take Washington
@EdgySam: #TCU vs.#Baylor & #Auburn vs. #MissSt, #THEPICKS!
Not crazy about the fact the public likes these same two teams, but, here are my two 3:30p.m. plays, both situations where my collegeedge ratings have the wrong team favored: TCU and Mississippi State.
Friday, October 10, 2014
@EdgySam: #FresnoState @ #UNLV. #ThePick!
Let's keep it simple on this late game tonight. UNLV lost a very effective QB from '13 (24/5 Td/Int ratio!), and a 1200-yard-rusher from last year's team as well. A traditionally lower-level team like the Rebels cannot, usually, overcome such high value losses. They haven't so far in '14.
I don't see how UNLV's offense will be able to keep up with one of the marque programs of the Mountain West Conference, Fresno St.
Take Fresno St.
I don't see how UNLV's offense will be able to keep up with one of the marque programs of the Mountain West Conference, Fresno St.
Take Fresno St.
Thursday, October 9, 2014
@EdgySam: #SDSU vs. #NewMexico, #ThePick
In the #SDSU vs. #NewMexico game tomorrow night, I have my first game of the week where my collegeedge ratings say the team that should be favored is the squad getting points. The Lobos are home on Friday night in a MWC game vs. the Aztecs of SanDiegoSt and instead of being favored in the game, as I believe they should be, New Mexico is the underdog.
The major reason New Mexico should be favored in the game is the loss of SDSU's efficient and underrated QB, Quinn Kaehler. His replacement is young(a freshman), inexperienced, and played horribly in his only start of the year(vs. Fresno St.).
Other reasons I think Lobos should be favored: Aztecs have only 3.5 starters back on defense, and they will be assigned the complicated task of facing an option offense; New Mexico showed an ability to play decent defense in the first half of the Fresno St. and played very well defensively last week in their 21-9 win over UTSA; finally home team has the chance to make up for an earlier, big stage, Friday night loss at Fresno St.
Look, I always worry when I go with a team that has been pretty bad in recent years. But, I think coach Bob Davie has been doing a decent job in Albuquerque( three years prior to Davie's arrival, New Mexico went 1-11 three consecutive years).
Take New Mexico. Take it as soon as possible. Line is going down.
The major reason New Mexico should be favored in the game is the loss of SDSU's efficient and underrated QB, Quinn Kaehler. His replacement is young(a freshman), inexperienced, and played horribly in his only start of the year(vs. Fresno St.).
Other reasons I think Lobos should be favored: Aztecs have only 3.5 starters back on defense, and they will be assigned the complicated task of facing an option offense; New Mexico showed an ability to play decent defense in the first half of the Fresno St. and played very well defensively last week in their 21-9 win over UTSA; finally home team has the chance to make up for an earlier, big stage, Friday night loss at Fresno St.
Look, I always worry when I go with a team that has been pretty bad in recent years. But, I think coach Bob Davie has been doing a decent job in Albuquerque( three years prior to Davie's arrival, New Mexico went 1-11 three consecutive years).
Take New Mexico. Take it as soon as possible. Line is going down.
Saturday, October 4, 2014
@EdgySam: #BoiseState vs. #Nevada, #THEPICK
For the second week in a row, we have one of the last scheduled games on the card.
Under my CollegeEdge ratings, I have Nevada rated higher than BoiseSt, and yet the Wolfpack come into their home game as an underdog.
Nevada has a 4-yr. starter at QB in Fajardo. He is under rated. The Reno squad also has a strong nucleus of starters returning from '13, and have they played well this year. Two of their well played games were against WSU and Arizona of the Pac12, defeating Wazzou 24-13, and playing at Tucson tough in a 28-35 loss.
I'm always afraid of the Broncos, but, remember HC Chris Petersen left for Washington, and, I don't believe this Boise St squad is as well coached. In fact, Nevada has the more experienced coaching staff.
The public is betting BoiseSt. I like it.
Take the team I have rated higher: Nevada
Under my CollegeEdge ratings, I have Nevada rated higher than BoiseSt, and yet the Wolfpack come into their home game as an underdog.
Nevada has a 4-yr. starter at QB in Fajardo. He is under rated. The Reno squad also has a strong nucleus of starters returning from '13, and have they played well this year. Two of their well played games were against WSU and Arizona of the Pac12, defeating Wazzou 24-13, and playing at Tucson tough in a 28-35 loss.
I'm always afraid of the Broncos, but, remember HC Chris Petersen left for Washington, and, I don't believe this Boise St squad is as well coached. In fact, Nevada has the more experienced coaching staff.
The public is betting BoiseSt. I like it.
Take the team I have rated higher: Nevada
@EdgySam: #Wisconsin vs. #Northwestern, #ThePick
Well, I picked Northwestern early on as my surprise team in the Big 10. The Wildcats disappointed me early, but, they did so in non-league play. In their first league matchup, the Pat Fitzgerald-coached team won pretty decisively on the road vs. Penn State. It's time for the Wildcats to continue playing like I thought they could.
I have Northwestern rated higher than Wisconsin under my CollegeEdge ratings, and, still they come into their home game as an underdog. Have to go with my ratings!
Take Northwestern
I have Northwestern rated higher than Wisconsin under my CollegeEdge ratings, and, still they come into their home game as an underdog. Have to go with my ratings!
Take Northwestern
Friday, October 3, 2014
@EdgySam: #UtahState vs. #BYU, #ThePick!
Sometimes a bargain is a bargain. Don't over-think the decision. With QB Keeton out for UtahSt, I don't see how the Aggies can stay close. Take BYU.
@EdgySam: #SanDiegoState vs. #FresnoState, #ThePick
Two inexperienced QBs start tonight for Fresno St. and SDSU, respectively. The Bulldogs lose the fabulous, #2 DC, Derek Carr, and the Aztecs lose underrated returning starter from '13, Kaehler, to an injury. SDSU has that goofy 4-2-5 defense, which I believe will give new starter Burrell lots of trouble, and I believe the 8.5 returning starters from the Bulldogs squad will give the young Aztec, QB starter trouble as well. As a result, I believe both offenses will play conservatively, keeping the score under the fairly high totals.
Take the under
With the loss of QB Kaehler tonight, my CollegeEdge ratings favor FresnoSt. strongly. I'm going to ride my ratings, and believe we'll see FresnoSt continue to improve from their slow start this year, albeit, a slow start vs. an unbelievably difficult early schedule.
Take the home team. Fresno St.
Take the under
With the loss of QB Kaehler tonight, my CollegeEdge ratings favor FresnoSt. strongly. I'm going to ride my ratings, and believe we'll see FresnoSt continue to improve from their slow start this year, albeit, a slow start vs. an unbelievably difficult early schedule.
Take the home team. Fresno St.
#EdgySam: #Louisville vs. #Syracuse, #ThePick
One of the most amazing stats of the year: Syracuse ran for 370 yards vs. Maryland ( 7.3 yards per carry!), and gave up only 89 on the ground vs. the Terps. Somehow, the Orange figured out a way to trail by 13-31 at the half of that game, and eventually lose by the score of 20-34. That game shows me what Syracuse is capable of accomplishing.
Syracuse is the home underdog, but, is the higher rated team under my CollegeEdge ratings. I don't think we'll see a letdown and I like the fact the Orange are home for a Friday night, ESPN game.
By the way, Louisville will start a freshman tonight. I think that helps my (our?) cause.
Take the team I think should be the slight favorite in this ACC matchup: Syracuse.
Pay attention for potential plays tonight.
Syracuse is the home underdog, but, is the higher rated team under my CollegeEdge ratings. I don't think we'll see a letdown and I like the fact the Orange are home for a Friday night, ESPN game.
By the way, Louisville will start a freshman tonight. I think that helps my (our?) cause.
Take the team I think should be the slight favorite in this ACC matchup: Syracuse.
Pay attention for potential plays tonight.
Thursday, October 2, 2014
@EdgySam: #FAU vs #FIU, #ThePick
@EdgySam works on his team ratings starting in early July. Those ratings are my most important handicapping tool. Tonight, I have FIU as the higher rated team in their contest vs.FAU. That would normally make the Golden Panthers my pick. Higher rated team getting points at home would normally be the almost automatic play.
FIU has loads of returning starters from '13. The problem is those returning starters played on an absolutely horrible team. They had a horrible rush attack last year. They've shown little improvement this year. They had a horrible passing attack last year. They've shown little improvement this year. They had a horrible defense last year. What scares me a little is the FIU defense has shown improvement in '14.
FAU, in competition similar to FIU, has beaten Tulsa, played well in a 19-20 loss to Wyoming, and in the most impressive game of their year, beat an up and coming UTSA squad, 41-37.
The Owls have also displayed something the Golden Panthers have yet to display: leadership at the offensive, talent positions. They have gotten good play from QB Jaquez Johnson (he can pass and throw), and, very important, have gotten rushing stats from RB Warren. It's great the Owls have two definite threats on the offensive side of the ball.
It doesn't hurt that FIU beat UAB last week playing an absolute dreadful game offensively. I think that's brought the pointspread down tonight.
Take FAU(Florida Atlantic).
In the other 7:00p.m. contest, two defenses that have a combined 19 starters back face two, respective offenses that have struggled so far this year.
Take the under in the UCF - Houston contest.
I'll be back late tonight for a potential play on Oregon - Arizona game.
FIU has loads of returning starters from '13. The problem is those returning starters played on an absolutely horrible team. They had a horrible rush attack last year. They've shown little improvement this year. They had a horrible passing attack last year. They've shown little improvement this year. They had a horrible defense last year. What scares me a little is the FIU defense has shown improvement in '14.
FAU, in competition similar to FIU, has beaten Tulsa, played well in a 19-20 loss to Wyoming, and in the most impressive game of their year, beat an up and coming UTSA squad, 41-37.
The Owls have also displayed something the Golden Panthers have yet to display: leadership at the offensive, talent positions. They have gotten good play from QB Jaquez Johnson (he can pass and throw), and, very important, have gotten rushing stats from RB Warren. It's great the Owls have two definite threats on the offensive side of the ball.
It doesn't hurt that FIU beat UAB last week playing an absolute dreadful game offensively. I think that's brought the pointspread down tonight.
Take FAU(Florida Atlantic).
In the other 7:00p.m. contest, two defenses that have a combined 19 starters back face two, respective offenses that have struggled so far this year.
Take the under in the UCF - Houston contest.
I'll be back late tonight for a potential play on Oregon - Arizona game.
Saturday, September 27, 2014
@EdgySam: Two NightTime #Picks(one at 10:30p.m.!)
In the #Missouri vs.#SouthCarolina game, my college edge ratings will govern my selection. I believed before the season this would be a difficult year for the Tigers after such a great performance last year. They lost an experienced QB, a 1000-yard rusher, their top 3 receivers, 20+sacks in the defensive line and both cornerbacks(Gaines was a 2nd team AA!). That's too much to lose vs. a team that I think still has a chance to win the SEC East. It doesn't hurt that the Ball Coach, Steve Spurrier, is very good in the role of home favorite.
Take South Carolina
Oregon St. is 3-0, but, they've gotten their wins vs. Potland ST, Hawaii, and SDSU. None of the those teams could expose the losses the Beavers experienced from their '13 squad. Oregon St. won't run the ball vs. USC, and they don't have the weapons in the passing game to to make up the difference like they did in '13.USC will run the ball vs.OrSU, and with the loss of a 2x Pac12 CB, I believe they will pass the ball as well. Throw in the fact the Trojans were embarrassed the last time out on national TV by BC, and let's say I'm very happy the public seems to betting Oregon State.
Take the USC Trojans.
Take South Carolina
Oregon St. is 3-0, but, they've gotten their wins vs. Potland ST, Hawaii, and SDSU. None of the those teams could expose the losses the Beavers experienced from their '13 squad. Oregon St. won't run the ball vs. USC, and they don't have the weapons in the passing game to to make up the difference like they did in '13.USC will run the ball vs.OrSU, and with the loss of a 2x Pac12 CB, I believe they will pass the ball as well. Throw in the fact the Trojans were embarrassed the last time out on national TV by BC, and let's say I'm very happy the public seems to betting Oregon State.
Take the USC Trojans.
@EdgySam: #WakeForest vs. #Louisville, #ThePick
@EdgySam likes to look at bad teams as well looking for good teams. I think Wake Forest will prove to be the worst team in the ACC, if not one of the worst teams in the FBS. The Demon Deacons only ran for 100 yards vs. Army and ran for -25 yards vs. Utah St. When Louisville stops Wake's running game, which I believe they will, they have almost no strength in their passing attack.
It will not help Wake's cause that they only have 1.5 starters back in the defensive interior. Innovative HC of Cardinals, Bobby Petrino, will exploit the Demon Deacons' weaknesses.
Not worried about the spread. Take Louisville.
It will not help Wake's cause that they only have 1.5 starters back in the defensive interior. Innovative HC of Cardinals, Bobby Petrino, will exploit the Demon Deacons' weaknesses.
Not worried about the spread. Take Louisville.
Friday, September 26, 2014
@EdgySam: #Northwestern vs. #PSU, The Pick
It's about time #Northwestern steps up and plays up to the level I thought they would play at before the season started. I have the Wildcats rated higher than the Nits, and they come into the Big 10 contest as an underdog, a nice situation for EdgySam.
NW has more starters back than PSU, including an experienced QB, all of their '13 O-Line starters and an experienced defense, highlighted by all four starters back in the defensive backfield.
Nice final touch is HC Fitzgerald rises to occasion in road games, posting a winning record vs. spread as a road underdog.
In our only Noon play, take Northwestern.
NW has more starters back than PSU, including an experienced QB, all of their '13 O-Line starters and an experienced defense, highlighted by all four starters back in the defensive backfield.
Nice final touch is HC Fitzgerald rises to occasion in road games, posting a winning record vs. spread as a road underdog.
In our only Noon play, take Northwestern.
#FresnoState vs. #NewMexico: The Pick
New Mexico gave up 7.5 y.p.c. and 330 yards rushing vs. UTEP. Wow. ASU got 423 yards rushing vs. Lobos at 8.8 y.p.c., and gave up 35 points to New Mexico St in a 3-point win. That is a horrible defense.
Fresno St. has 3 big losses as well, but, at least they lost to USC, Utah, and Nebraska, three good programs.
The Bulldogs have a new QB this year, after losing the spectacular Derek Carr, but the replacement is an experienced transfer from Duke. They have a solid trio of RBs back from last year, and 8.5 starters back from '13 defense.
The higher rated team, according to my CollegeEdge ratings, and the team with the winning history is the pick.
Take Fresno State Bulldogs
Fresno St. has 3 big losses as well, but, at least they lost to USC, Utah, and Nebraska, three good programs.
The Bulldogs have a new QB this year, after losing the spectacular Derek Carr, but the replacement is an experienced transfer from Duke. They have a solid trio of RBs back from last year, and 8.5 starters back from '13 defense.
The higher rated team, according to my CollegeEdge ratings, and the team with the winning history is the pick.
Take Fresno State Bulldogs
Thursday, September 25, 2014
#UCLA vs. #ASU: The Pick
UCLA may not have Hundley at QB, but, the big loss in this game is the loss of ASU's returning QB, Taylor Kelly. His loss may be bigger tonight because of the paucity of returning starters from the Sun Devil squad. His experience was key with the loss of so many '13 starters.
In addition to the loss of QB Kelly, ASU has only 2 starters back on defense! HC Graham is a very good coach, but, I feel he has too much to overcome in what is somewhat of a revenge game for the Bruins( ASU beat UCLA in Rose Bowl last year, 38-33).
Believe it, or not, I'd like to see Hundley play, but, not overly concerned if he does not play.
UCLA is the pick. In a smaller play, take the under in the same game.
In addition to the loss of QB Kelly, ASU has only 2 starters back on defense! HC Graham is a very good coach, but, I feel he has too much to overcome in what is somewhat of a revenge game for the Bruins( ASU beat UCLA in Rose Bowl last year, 38-33).
Believe it, or not, I'd like to see Hundley play, but, not overly concerned if he does not play.
UCLA is the pick. In a smaller play, take the under in the same game.
#TexasTech vs. #OklahomaState: The Pick
No letdown factor tonight, so #Edgysam goes to his CollegeEdge ratings for support.
Texas Tech has the returning starter strength on offense, with QB Webb, almost a completely intact O-Line back and experience at both the RB and Receiver positions. If I have trouble tonight with the Red Raiders it will be because of their questionable defense.
What is heartening, if, like me, you are worried about the TT defense, is Oklahoma St. has almost no returning experience on offense. They had a little experience back at QB in Walsh, but, the Cowboys lost him to a season-ending injury. His replacement, Daxx Garman, wasn't even on the QB radar in 2013.
HC Gundy is one of the great spread coaches in the FBS, but, EdgySam, yours truly, has this game very closely contested, according to my team ratings.
Take Texas Tech, and buy the 1/2 pt if the spread is 14.
Texas Tech has the returning starter strength on offense, with QB Webb, almost a completely intact O-Line back and experience at both the RB and Receiver positions. If I have trouble tonight with the Red Raiders it will be because of their questionable defense.
What is heartening, if, like me, you are worried about the TT defense, is Oklahoma St. has almost no returning experience on offense. They had a little experience back at QB in Walsh, but, the Cowboys lost him to a season-ending injury. His replacement, Daxx Garman, wasn't even on the QB radar in 2013.
HC Gundy is one of the great spread coaches in the FBS, but, EdgySam, yours truly, has this game very closely contested, according to my team ratings.
Take Texas Tech, and buy the 1/2 pt if the spread is 14.
Saturday, September 20, 2014
@EdgySam: Three Picks at 8:00p.m.
Miami is the higher rated team according to my CollegeEdge ratings and they are the underdog in their game vs. Nebraska. Take Miami and hope RB Duke Johnson is the major contributor for the 'Canes.
In two smaller plays, yes, I believe the loss of QB Winston makes a difference in tonight's game. Clemson's defense will cause trouble for FSU's new QB Maguire. Not sure Clemson will win, but, take Tigers in a low scoring, close game.
Take Clemson and the under in the same game.
In two smaller plays, yes, I believe the loss of QB Winston makes a difference in tonight's game. Clemson's defense will cause trouble for FSU's new QB Maguire. Not sure Clemson will win, but, take Tigers in a low scoring, close game.
Take Clemson and the under in the same game.
Friday, September 19, 2014
@EdgySam Picks in the Early #FBS Games
Maryland over Syracuse: The Terps are the higher rated team, and, as opposed to their first two games, come into this contest vs. Syracuse as an underdog. If you follow me and the CollegeEdge, you know I look for spots where the higher rated team comes into game as a dog. Orange are 2-0. They have their two wins vs. Villanova and Central Michigan. First tough matchup of the year for the home team.
Take Maryland. If spread is at +2.5, I would buy the .5 point.
Two smaller plays: Georgia over Troy. Troy lost a good QB from '13 squad. Freshman starts this year. Bulldogs will romp
Virginia Tech over Georgia Tech: Two of my favorite coaches go against each other. This is a CollegeEdge ratings pick. I have the Hokies rated considerably higher than the Yellow Jackets. VT has the better of the new QBs and they also have a quality I always look for when a defending the option: experience at the D-Back position. Hokies have all 4 starters back at the D-Back position. I have a tremendous amount of respect for G.T. coach Paul Johnson. He's the main reason I didn't put this pick in the Maryland category.
Take Maryland. If spread is at +2.5, I would buy the .5 point.
Two smaller plays: Georgia over Troy. Troy lost a good QB from '13 squad. Freshman starts this year. Bulldogs will romp
Virginia Tech over Georgia Tech: Two of my favorite coaches go against each other. This is a CollegeEdge ratings pick. I have the Hokies rated considerably higher than the Yellow Jackets. VT has the better of the new QBs and they also have a quality I always look for when a defending the option: experience at the D-Back position. Hokies have all 4 starters back at the D-Back position. I have a tremendous amount of respect for G.T. coach Paul Johnson. He's the main reason I didn't put this pick in the Maryland category.
@Edgysam Picks: #UConn vs. #USF
This is a night where @edgysam will turn to his CollegeEdge ratings for a selection.
I have the home team Bulls as the higher rated team. According to my ratings, not knowing anything about how either team has played, I would have made USF a minimum of a 7-point favorite in the game. The problem is I do know how both teams have played, and both teams have been bad so far. I completely understand how this line could open at USF -4 and, so far, drop to -1.
But, USF does have an experienced offensive line(all 5 starters back), and a defense that at least showed some life vs. Maryland in a 17-24 loss. Plus, USF is home in the only game on the FBS schedule. The Bulls should be relatively pumped up.
Take USF, and in a smaller play, take the under in the same game.
I have the home team Bulls as the higher rated team. According to my ratings, not knowing anything about how either team has played, I would have made USF a minimum of a 7-point favorite in the game. The problem is I do know how both teams have played, and both teams have been bad so far. I completely understand how this line could open at USF -4 and, so far, drop to -1.
But, USF does have an experienced offensive line(all 5 starters back), and a defense that at least showed some life vs. Maryland in a 17-24 loss. Plus, USF is home in the only game on the FBS schedule. The Bulls should be relatively pumped up.
Take USF, and in a smaller play, take the under in the same game.
Monday, September 15, 2014
@Edgysam Kicks Butt on Weeknights - Why?
Over the years, @Edgysam and the College Edge have had a lot of success handicapping the weeknight FBS schedule. Over those same years, I've tried to figure out why. One of the reasons was the simple fact the weeknight schedule includes only one or two games. It's nice to narrow your focus on only two to four teams.
My picks over this past weekend have opened my handicapping eyes to a more important reason why I do a pretty good job on weeknight games. I also think this sort of revelation will help me with weekend games as well.
I lost two picks this past weekend where the teams I selected were the much higher rated teams under my College Edge ratings: Virginia Tech and USC. The problem in both games, a problem I acknowledged, was both teams were coming off of gigantic wins the prior week: the Hokies over Ohio St.; the Trojans over Stanford. Any rational handicapper had to look at these two sides and seriously consider there might be a letdown. I thought the ratings edges would overcome the letdown possibilities. I was wrong.
So, how did those two bad losses open my eyes to my Thursday successes and possibly help me in my future handicapping?
Weeknight games on ESPN or FoxSports are the highlight games of that night. Those college kids are the focal point of the entire nation. In some cases(like last week's game between LaTech and North Texas), it might be one of the only times any of these players will ever experience that kind of exposure.
The chances of a letdown on this national stage are far less likely than they would be on a schedule-crowded Saturday. In my opinion, the College Edge ratings I've developed over the years are more likely to hold true on weeknights. Letdowns are less likely to have an effect on those games.
On crowded weekend schedules, I have always considered intangibles like the letdown possibility, Henceforth, I need to give that even more consideration.
My picks over this past weekend have opened my handicapping eyes to a more important reason why I do a pretty good job on weeknight games. I also think this sort of revelation will help me with weekend games as well.
I lost two picks this past weekend where the teams I selected were the much higher rated teams under my College Edge ratings: Virginia Tech and USC. The problem in both games, a problem I acknowledged, was both teams were coming off of gigantic wins the prior week: the Hokies over Ohio St.; the Trojans over Stanford. Any rational handicapper had to look at these two sides and seriously consider there might be a letdown. I thought the ratings edges would overcome the letdown possibilities. I was wrong.
So, how did those two bad losses open my eyes to my Thursday successes and possibly help me in my future handicapping?
Weeknight games on ESPN or FoxSports are the highlight games of that night. Those college kids are the focal point of the entire nation. In some cases(like last week's game between LaTech and North Texas), it might be one of the only times any of these players will ever experience that kind of exposure.
The chances of a letdown on this national stage are far less likely than they would be on a schedule-crowded Saturday. In my opinion, the College Edge ratings I've developed over the years are more likely to hold true on weeknights. Letdowns are less likely to have an effect on those games.
On crowded weekend schedules, I have always considered intangibles like the letdown possibility, Henceforth, I need to give that even more consideration.
Saturday, September 13, 2014
@EdgySam Gives Out His 12:00p.m. Picks
Last week I didn't like any Noon-starting games, this week, I like FIVE. Well, the excitement starts early today. Here are my five plays:
Indiana: time to put up, or shut up. Lots of starters back, including good, experienced QBs
Maryland: tough matchup vs. West Virginia, but, Terps have loads of starters back, too.
UCF: I think Missouri is overrated.
Virginia: I have them rated higher than the favored team in this game.
Virginia Tech: East Carolina scary enough that I don't expect a letdown from the Ohio St. conquerors.
Indiana: time to put up, or shut up. Lots of starters back, including good, experienced QBs
Maryland: tough matchup vs. West Virginia, but, Terps have loads of starters back, too.
UCF: I think Missouri is overrated.
Virginia: I have them rated higher than the favored team in this game.
Virginia Tech: East Carolina scary enough that I don't expect a letdown from the Ohio St. conquerors.
Friday, September 12, 2014
@EdgySam asks: Is #Baylor Spread Too High?
Probably.
I am no longer afraid of big spreads. There was a time when I'd automatically eliminate games with spreads of -20 or higher. What the hell was I thinking? As I wrote earlier this week, there are bargains to be found at every spread level.
Baylor will score tonight, and score a lot. Head Coach Art Briles is merciless as far as running up the score. They are facing a Buffalo defense, which lost one of the best defenders in all of college football last year, #1 DC, LB Khalil Mack, and which has only 4 total starters back on defense.
What's making me hesitant to give out Baylor (for now) is the fact Buffalo is home, and the Bulls have an experienced returning QB in Joe Liciata and an experienced offensive line. I am also a little alarmed by the 3-4 injuries in the wide receiver corps, including the loss of 3rd AA wr Antwan Goodley( of course, Bulls defense might not be able to do anything about those string of injuries).
Right now, edgysam thinks this line might be a little too high, but, I have plenty of time to reconsider.
I am no longer afraid of big spreads. There was a time when I'd automatically eliminate games with spreads of -20 or higher. What the hell was I thinking? As I wrote earlier this week, there are bargains to be found at every spread level.
Baylor will score tonight, and score a lot. Head Coach Art Briles is merciless as far as running up the score. They are facing a Buffalo defense, which lost one of the best defenders in all of college football last year, #1 DC, LB Khalil Mack, and which has only 4 total starters back on defense.
What's making me hesitant to give out Baylor (for now) is the fact Buffalo is home, and the Bulls have an experienced returning QB in Joe Liciata and an experienced offensive line. I am also a little alarmed by the 3-4 injuries in the wide receiver corps, including the loss of 3rd AA wr Antwan Goodley( of course, Bulls defense might not be able to do anything about those string of injuries).
Right now, edgysam thinks this line might be a little too high, but, I have plenty of time to reconsider.
Thursday, September 11, 2014
#EdgySam Pick in #LaTech vs. #NorthTexas #AAC Game
@Edgysam gets a #GoldSheet every week. I have a library of them going back to 1980! I have the utmost respect for the knowledge the Gold Sheet imparts. I don't use their weekly picks for my picks, but, I read everything I can on their sheets to see if they write about something I may have missed.
Tonight, the sheet gave me two things to consider I missed: North Texas' success, recently, at home vs. the spread, and, the fact Louisiana Tech is playing their third consecutive road game in the short span of 12 days, an unusual way to start a new season.
Those facts, plus the large drop from +6.5 to +3, will keep me from making Louisiana Tech a major play. I have both teams' college edge ratings almost exactly the same.
The Gold Sheet weekly publication picked North Texas. My major disagreement with that pick was the new, efficient QB play of LaTech's Cody Sokol. He is the 56th rated QB coming out of his HS class, and an Iowa transfer. This type of highly rated QB rarely plays on a program like LaTech's. The quality of QB has improved immeasurably from '13! The Gold Sheet never mentioned Sokol in its synopsis.
Take Louisiana Tech Bulldogs and keep an eye out for a very special talent at RB: Kenneth Dixon
Tonight, the sheet gave me two things to consider I missed: North Texas' success, recently, at home vs. the spread, and, the fact Louisiana Tech is playing their third consecutive road game in the short span of 12 days, an unusual way to start a new season.
Those facts, plus the large drop from +6.5 to +3, will keep me from making Louisiana Tech a major play. I have both teams' college edge ratings almost exactly the same.
The Gold Sheet weekly publication picked North Texas. My major disagreement with that pick was the new, efficient QB play of LaTech's Cody Sokol. He is the 56th rated QB coming out of his HS class, and an Iowa transfer. This type of highly rated QB rarely plays on a program like LaTech's. The quality of QB has improved immeasurably from '13! The Gold Sheet never mentioned Sokol in its synopsis.
Take Louisiana Tech Bulldogs and keep an eye out for a very special talent at RB: Kenneth Dixon
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