We kicked off what should be a fun week of sports consulting with the under the totals recommendation in the Cincinnati vs. Memphis contest. I was this close to making the Tigers a pick in the game as well, but, I just didn't trust the numbers produced by freshman QB Lynch so far this season. I also wrote to my clients that Memphis just might be one of the most improved teams in the country, despite their 1-5 record.
Now, time to tell you about Weekend Offer, which costs only $25.00 and includes:
1) All of my college football picks for this Weekend. Incidentally, I hit 73% in 2011 for my clients. In 2012, I hit 56% for my clients. So far this year, I'm 49-38 for my clients. Job well done.
2) All Breeder's Cup Races Picks from our Horse Racing guru, Dan. And, yes, we will include Friday's races.
3) 3-5 NFL Picks.
With a whole lot of discipline, we hope you'll sign up and set yourself up for a whole lot of fun this weekend!
Wednesday, October 30, 2013
Monday, October 28, 2013
I'm 49-38 vs.The Spread: Yeah, That's Good! Here's Why
I'm 49-38 vs. the spread this year. I had someone write me that I'm barely covering the vig. My first reaction to that criticism was: " you've got to be kidding." Here's why.
I am a firm believer that if you are a serious sports gambler, the only way you have a chance to beat the system and win money over the long haul is by figuring out what you can afford to lose. After you've made that determination, then you have to wager the same amount, based on what you can afford to lose, on every one of your plays.
I've made 87 recommendations for my people this year. If one of my people decided all they can afford to lose on my plays is $10.00 per bet, they would have won $490.00 on my winners, and lost $418.00 on my losers, for a profit of $72.00.
If one of my people decided they could afford to lose $50.00 for each of my plays, and invested that much in each of my plays, they would have won $2450.00. They would have lost $2090.00 on my losers. That's a profit of $360.00.
If one of my people decided they could afford to lose $100.00 for each of my plays, and invested that much in each of my plays, they would have won $4900.00. They would have lost $4180.00 on my losers. That's a profit of $720.00!
Do you see where I'm going with this? 49-38 is a good record. Period!
Here's the problem. I can't control what gamblers do with my picks. Some guys fluctuate what they bet per game. They might get lucky and win the plays they bet more on. But, what if they lose those inflated bets? They've opened the door to losing money, despite a very good winning percentage.
Other guys take my picks and use them in parlays and reverses and if bets. If they get lucky and win those fancy bets, yeah, they'll do okay. But, again, those exotic bets can take a winning percentage and turn them into a negative bank account.
Here's the bottom line: if you want to win money, you need discipline. Decide what you can afford to lose. Set an amount you want to bet per game and stick to it. That's the best way to give yourself a chance to win money. Again, Period!
I am a firm believer that if you are a serious sports gambler, the only way you have a chance to beat the system and win money over the long haul is by figuring out what you can afford to lose. After you've made that determination, then you have to wager the same amount, based on what you can afford to lose, on every one of your plays.
I've made 87 recommendations for my people this year. If one of my people decided all they can afford to lose on my plays is $10.00 per bet, they would have won $490.00 on my winners, and lost $418.00 on my losers, for a profit of $72.00.
If one of my people decided they could afford to lose $50.00 for each of my plays, and invested that much in each of my plays, they would have won $2450.00. They would have lost $2090.00 on my losers. That's a profit of $360.00.
If one of my people decided they could afford to lose $100.00 for each of my plays, and invested that much in each of my plays, they would have won $4900.00. They would have lost $4180.00 on my losers. That's a profit of $720.00!
Do you see where I'm going with this? 49-38 is a good record. Period!
Here's the problem. I can't control what gamblers do with my picks. Some guys fluctuate what they bet per game. They might get lucky and win the plays they bet more on. But, what if they lose those inflated bets? They've opened the door to losing money, despite a very good winning percentage.
Other guys take my picks and use them in parlays and reverses and if bets. If they get lucky and win those fancy bets, yeah, they'll do okay. But, again, those exotic bets can take a winning percentage and turn them into a negative bank account.
Here's the bottom line: if you want to win money, you need discipline. Decide what you can afford to lose. Set an amount you want to bet per game and stick to it. That's the best way to give yourself a chance to win money. Again, Period!
Thursday, October 10, 2013
2013 #CollegeFootball Regular Season Offer
Remember the scene in "Rocky?" Rocky Balboa is training for the big fight by pounding slabs of meat in a Philly meat packing plant. A news station comes to the "training site" to film the unusual regimen. That night on local TV, the story is broadcast, and, more specifically, into the hotel suite of Apollo Creed and his entourage. Everyone ignores Rocky and the story on TV, except for the champ's trainer, who is stunned by the challenger's relentlessness and savagery.
The trainer tries to get Creed to notice, but, the champ, and everyone in the room have more important things on their mind. They could care less about the single-minded figure on TV. The moral of the scene: they should have taken Rocky seriously.
Alright, the analogy isn't perfect, but, except for my loyal core of people who have been with me for years, I've had my success in relative anonymity. Like the trainer appreciating the relentless character of Creed's challenger, it is my hope some out there notice the relentless nature of my work, the success I've had recently, and over the years, and consider signing up for my 2013 FBS Regular Season Offer.
The cost is only $70.00!
Sign up through credit card via PayPal at this site and you'll get a handicapper who hit an incredible 73% for his clients in 2011. You'll get someone who hit 56% last year for his clients last year, and who has a 37-22 record so far this year.
I'll text you my picks. If you don't have the ability to receive texts, I'll figure out a way to get the picks to you. I have no limit on the amount of plays I give out. This year I've been averaging about 10 plays a week.
How about this: let me do all the work for you on College Football. Invest in the plays I give you. Invest in the way I advise you to invest. In other words, make the FBS your serious time of the week to gamble. Then on Sundays, have fun. Do your parlays and reverses and fun wagering on the NFL. But, on Saturdays, you have one goal and one goal only, MAKE MONEY.
I thank you for your time and I hope you'll consider signing up.
The trainer tries to get Creed to notice, but, the champ, and everyone in the room have more important things on their mind. They could care less about the single-minded figure on TV. The moral of the scene: they should have taken Rocky seriously.
Alright, the analogy isn't perfect, but, except for my loyal core of people who have been with me for years, I've had my success in relative anonymity. Like the trainer appreciating the relentless character of Creed's challenger, it is my hope some out there notice the relentless nature of my work, the success I've had recently, and over the years, and consider signing up for my 2013 FBS Regular Season Offer.
The cost is only $70.00!
Sign up through credit card via PayPal at this site and you'll get a handicapper who hit an incredible 73% for his clients in 2011. You'll get someone who hit 56% last year for his clients last year, and who has a 37-22 record so far this year.
I'll text you my picks. If you don't have the ability to receive texts, I'll figure out a way to get the picks to you. I have no limit on the amount of plays I give out. This year I've been averaging about 10 plays a week.
How about this: let me do all the work for you on College Football. Invest in the plays I give you. Invest in the way I advise you to invest. In other words, make the FBS your serious time of the week to gamble. Then on Sundays, have fun. Do your parlays and reverses and fun wagering on the NFL. But, on Saturdays, you have one goal and one goal only, MAKE MONEY.
I thank you for your time and I hope you'll consider signing up.
Wednesday, October 9, 2013
#HandicappingSeminar:#SanDiegoSt-#AirForce, #ThePick
Completed the College Edge ratings for San Diego St. and Air Force. The Aztecs were the higher rated team for their road contest Thursday night. So, that's one factor in favor of the the road team, but, certainly not enough to make a recommendation.
Against defenses similar to the talent at Air Force, SDSU has run the ball effectively, led by their returning 1400 yard rusher in 2012, Adam Muema. What's also helped immensely is the contribution of another 100 yard per game rusher, Pumphrey.
QB Kaehler has also done a surprisingly good job leading the Aztec offense.
But, the main reason I like San Diego St. on Thursday night is the defense of the Aztecs. They have 8 starters back on defense. That's important, because you need experience when facing a service academy option offense. But, what's even more important, is Rocky Long is the coach of SDSU, and coach Long has immense experience, and success against option offenses. Don't forget, he was the very successful head of the New Mexico program, which faced Air Force, and their vaunted option attack, almost every year. He's been the Aztec coach three year , and this is the third consecutive year facing the Falcons.
Based on the talent level returning this year, and, the experience of the Aztec squad in facing the unique Falcon team, I pick San Diego State to win and cover in their Thursday night,Mountain West contest vs, Air Force.
Against defenses similar to the talent at Air Force, SDSU has run the ball effectively, led by their returning 1400 yard rusher in 2012, Adam Muema. What's also helped immensely is the contribution of another 100 yard per game rusher, Pumphrey.
QB Kaehler has also done a surprisingly good job leading the Aztec offense.
But, the main reason I like San Diego St. on Thursday night is the defense of the Aztecs. They have 8 starters back on defense. That's important, because you need experience when facing a service academy option offense. But, what's even more important, is Rocky Long is the coach of SDSU, and coach Long has immense experience, and success against option offenses. Don't forget, he was the very successful head of the New Mexico program, which faced Air Force, and their vaunted option attack, almost every year. He's been the Aztec coach three year , and this is the third consecutive year facing the Falcons.
Based on the talent level returning this year, and, the experience of the Aztec squad in facing the unique Falcon team, I pick San Diego State to win and cover in their Thursday night,Mountain West contest vs, Air Force.
Tuesday, October 8, 2013
#HandicappingSeminar:#SDSU @ #AirForce, Part 1
Adjusted the ratings and did all the statistical work on San Diego State/ Air Force game scheduled for Thursday night.
The most impressive part of the Aztec team to date is their pretty impressive rush attack. Against competition similar to their own talent, SDSU has run for 5 yards per carry or more, including impressive efforts by Muema, who gained 1440 yards in 2012, and Pumphrey, who has gained over 100 yards on the ground. The rush defense for SDSU hasn't been that bad either. Since Ohio St. loss, the Aztec D hasn't allowed more than 3.1 yards per carry in games against Oregon St., NMSU, and Nevada. Not bad.
Air Force stats to date have shown no aspect of the offense or defense that stands out. Even the vaunted Falcon option offense has been inconsistent this year. They gained 346 and 375 on the ground in losses to Boise St and Nevada, respectively, but, gained less than 200 yards on the ground vs. Utah St and Boise St. and barely cracked the 2-century mark against Navy. You can probably attribute this inconsistent effort to injuries and a key suspension at the QB position.
We completed the updated College Edge ratings on San Diego St. and Air Force and I'll be releasing a selection on this game sometime tomorrow(Wednesday).
The most impressive part of the Aztec team to date is their pretty impressive rush attack. Against competition similar to their own talent, SDSU has run for 5 yards per carry or more, including impressive efforts by Muema, who gained 1440 yards in 2012, and Pumphrey, who has gained over 100 yards on the ground. The rush defense for SDSU hasn't been that bad either. Since Ohio St. loss, the Aztec D hasn't allowed more than 3.1 yards per carry in games against Oregon St., NMSU, and Nevada. Not bad.
Air Force stats to date have shown no aspect of the offense or defense that stands out. Even the vaunted Falcon option offense has been inconsistent this year. They gained 346 and 375 on the ground in losses to Boise St and Nevada, respectively, but, gained less than 200 yards on the ground vs. Utah St and Boise St. and barely cracked the 2-century mark against Navy. You can probably attribute this inconsistent effort to injuries and a key suspension at the QB position.
We completed the updated College Edge ratings on San Diego St. and Air Force and I'll be releasing a selection on this game sometime tomorrow(Wednesday).
#HandicappingSeminar: #Rutgers/#Louisville, #THEPICK
I did the ratings for each team in the Rutgers - Louisville contest. Most of you would probably assume the Cardinals are the higher rated team. You would be right. I will approach this final decision in the old fashioned way: I will answer some key questions and come to a conclusion.
Will Rutgers run the ball on Louisville? The Knights may have some success vs. the Cardinals run D, but, a key stat for me is the rushing yardage Rutgers had vs. Arkansas. They only gained 54 yards rushing in that game. Rutgers will have only limited success running the ball
Will Rutgers pass the ball on Louisville? Again, vs. the toughest defensive team on the schedule(Arkansas), Rutgers threw for only 51%. They will have some success passing vs. Louisville, but, not enough to keep up.
Will Louisville run the ball on Rutgers? They will run enough on Rutgers to make the passing attack more effective. Rutgers had some big losses on defense from 2012. They haven't faced any team that could take advantage of those deficiencies, on the ground. Louisville will take advantage of those deficiencies.
Will Louisville pass the ball on Rutgers? Scarlet Knights gave up 450+ yards passing to Fresno St. and SMU. Louisville WILL pass the ball on the young Knight secondary.
Incentive Advantage: As mentioned earlier, this is one of Louisville's only challenging games this year. Charlie Strong will have his team ready to play. Rutgers just came off a sapping 3 OT win over SMU. Give the intangible advantage to Louisville
THE PICK VS. THE SPREAD: As my credibilty spreads, I totally expect this line to jump up as soon as I release it: TAKE THE LOUISVILLE CARDINALS. Get it in early. That line should go up
Will Rutgers run the ball on Louisville? The Knights may have some success vs. the Cardinals run D, but, a key stat for me is the rushing yardage Rutgers had vs. Arkansas. They only gained 54 yards rushing in that game. Rutgers will have only limited success running the ball
Will Rutgers pass the ball on Louisville? Again, vs. the toughest defensive team on the schedule(Arkansas), Rutgers threw for only 51%. They will have some success passing vs. Louisville, but, not enough to keep up.
Will Louisville run the ball on Rutgers? They will run enough on Rutgers to make the passing attack more effective. Rutgers had some big losses on defense from 2012. They haven't faced any team that could take advantage of those deficiencies, on the ground. Louisville will take advantage of those deficiencies.
Will Louisville pass the ball on Rutgers? Scarlet Knights gave up 450+ yards passing to Fresno St. and SMU. Louisville WILL pass the ball on the young Knight secondary.
Incentive Advantage: As mentioned earlier, this is one of Louisville's only challenging games this year. Charlie Strong will have his team ready to play. Rutgers just came off a sapping 3 OT win over SMU. Give the intangible advantage to Louisville
THE PICK VS. THE SPREAD: As my credibilty spreads, I totally expect this line to jump up as soon as I release it: TAKE THE LOUISVILLE CARDINALS. Get it in early. That line should go up
Monday, October 7, 2013
#HandicappingSeminar Part 2:#Rutgers/#Louisville
Just did the stats on the Rutgers - SMU game and most influential stat is RB Goodwin's 149 yards rushing in the game. RB James was hurt for the game and he was having a very good year. Goodwin steps right in and puts up great numbers as well. The other impressive stat is 74 yards rushing given up by the Scarlet Knights defense. In every game they've played this year, Rutgers has given up 100 yards, or less, rushing. Not bad. The passing defense for the visiting team this Thursday night has not been as good, and that could be very costly against Heisman candidate Teddy Bridgewater.
Some of the questions I might ask while handicapping the Rutgers side of Thursday's matchup: Will Rutgers stop Louisville's run attack??? Will Rutgers continue to find a RB to make major contributions against the tough Louisville defense???Will Rutgers QBs perform on Thursday night, in a very hostile environment?
Some of the questions I might ask while handicapping the Rutgers side of Thursday's matchup: Will Rutgers stop Louisville's run attack??? Will Rutgers continue to find a RB to make major contributions against the tough Louisville defense???Will Rutgers QBs perform on Thursday night, in a very hostile environment?
#HandicappingSeminar: #Rutgers vs. #Louisville: Part 1
I just did the stats on the Louisville/Temple game, and nothing stands out, except for the Rushing stats posted by the Cardinals' offense. They only gained 177 yards on the ground. I would probably attribute it to the teams probable lack of interest. I listened to a lot of the game, and it seemed Temple never showed enough of a threat to keep Louisville on its toes.
The real striking part of this early research is how weak the Louisville schedule is. This week's game vs. Rutgers and next week's game vs. UCF might actually be their toughest games this year. I like the Cardinals and their coach, Charlie Strong, but, their 2013 schedule is pathetic. Check the list of teams they've played so far: Ohio, E.Kentucky, Kentucky, FIU, and Temple. Are you kidding?
Two questions I'm asking about Thursday night: Will Louisville look at Thursday night's game as an opportunity to impress pollsters? Has the Cardinals pathetic early schedule left them unprepared for a fairly tough Rutgers team?
The real striking part of this early research is how weak the Louisville schedule is. This week's game vs. Rutgers and next week's game vs. UCF might actually be their toughest games this year. I like the Cardinals and their coach, Charlie Strong, but, their 2013 schedule is pathetic. Check the list of teams they've played so far: Ohio, E.Kentucky, Kentucky, FIU, and Temple. Are you kidding?
Two questions I'm asking about Thursday night: Will Louisville look at Thursday night's game as an opportunity to impress pollsters? Has the Cardinals pathetic early schedule left them unprepared for a fairly tough Rutgers team?
Saturday, October 5, 2013
#BYU - #UtahSt: Some Final( Handicapping) Thoughts
Last night I gave out #UtahState over the #BYU #Cougars. The pick was based on an Aggie team I thought could compete with almost any team in the country. They have a nice defense, led by an imposing linebacker corps, which includes 3, All-Conference returnees from 2012. #USU also has a formidable D-Line and experienced cornerbacks.
BUT, the most important part of the USU puzzle is quarterback Chuckie Keeton. His stats during an outstanding 2012 campaign included a TD/Int ratio of 27-9; a completion percentage of 68%; a per attempt completion average of 8.3 yards! Get this: he also rushed for 700 yards(4.8 yards per carry).
Add to all the info above USU's home field advantage, and a serious revenge motive(lost to BYU last two years), and the Aggie pick by yours truly was a strong one.
Then I heard the news as I was working on some of today's games: Chuckie Keeton was injured in the game, and, GULP, would probably not return.
Knowing USU had no experience behind Keeton, and also knowing no replacement could match Keeton's value, I also knew one other thing: my Utah St. pick was in dire trouble. I felt bad for Keeton, for his teammates, and their fans. The Aggies went from a very dangerous team to an also-ran in the MWC.
Adjusting to the new information, I texted my crew of people and tweeted a new plan of attack. Both BYU and Utah St would now be playing quarterbacks who were in their first year as starters and both QBs would be playing against good defenses.
I recommended an under the totals play for the second half. The totals number was 24'. Total points scored in the second half was 21!
It was one of my proudest picks of the year. Adjusting to the information at hand resulted in a win for me and my people.
Get well, Chuckie Keeton.
BUT, the most important part of the USU puzzle is quarterback Chuckie Keeton. His stats during an outstanding 2012 campaign included a TD/Int ratio of 27-9; a completion percentage of 68%; a per attempt completion average of 8.3 yards! Get this: he also rushed for 700 yards(4.8 yards per carry).
Add to all the info above USU's home field advantage, and a serious revenge motive(lost to BYU last two years), and the Aggie pick by yours truly was a strong one.
Then I heard the news as I was working on some of today's games: Chuckie Keeton was injured in the game, and, GULP, would probably not return.
Knowing USU had no experience behind Keeton, and also knowing no replacement could match Keeton's value, I also knew one other thing: my Utah St. pick was in dire trouble. I felt bad for Keeton, for his teammates, and their fans. The Aggies went from a very dangerous team to an also-ran in the MWC.
Adjusting to the new information, I texted my crew of people and tweeted a new plan of attack. Both BYU and Utah St would now be playing quarterbacks who were in their first year as starters and both QBs would be playing against good defenses.
I recommended an under the totals play for the second half. The totals number was 24'. Total points scored in the second half was 21!
It was one of my proudest picks of the year. Adjusting to the information at hand resulted in a win for me and my people.
Get well, Chuckie Keeton.
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