USA Today has what they call the Sagarin Difference. In terms of college football, what the Sagarin Difference, developed by Jeff Sagarin, does is compare the regular betting line on a particular game with what Sagarin believes the line on the game should be.
As an example, in the National Championship game between Alabama and Clemson, the actual betting line is -7. The " Sagarin Difference " line is Alabama by -5.5.
If you follow the reasoning behind the Sagarin Difference line, based on Jeff Sagarin's power ratings, in my opinion, according to Sagarin, Clemson is the right side in the game.
In the whole bowl season, if you made your picks based on the actual betting lines of the bowl games, and Sagarin Difference line on all the bowl games, you would have gone 13 - 22 following the Sagarin Difference.
I missed about 4 games I did not have time to work on. Going head to head with the Sagarin Difference in the same exact games we both worked on, I went 19 - 16.
Why do I bring all this up? I respect Jeff Sagarin and the Sagarin Difference. Even so, a person solely following the Sagarin Differnce in relation to the real betting line would have gone 13-22 this Bowl Season. My point is quite simple: if you think it's easy picking winners during Bowl Season, or, any other time of the year, you are wrong.
Thursday, January 7, 2016
Tuesday, December 15, 2015
#FiftyThreeorFREE #BowlSpecial - 2015
In sports wagering circles, if you pick a certain unit to wager per game ( e.g. $20.00 unit ), if you win 52.4% of your picks over the course of time, factoring in the vig of 10%, you would break even.
Under my EdgySam "Fifty-Three or Free" Bowl Special, I have to hit 53% of my Bowl Picks. If not, like the offer states right here at collegeedge.blogspot.com, I will not get paid.
If paid by money order - I'll give you the address upon request - you'll get a complete refund. If paid by PayPal, you'll get a refund of $38.00 of the $40.00 Bowl Special Fee.
Last year, I hit 57% of my bowl picks. In 2013, I hit 56% of my bowl picks.
The Bowl Special is that simple: If I hit 53% of my picks, I get paid. If I hit 52.99% of my picks, I don't get paid. Here is the Who, What, Where, When, Why, and How of my Bowl Special. I hope you'll give it a try.
WHO: Sam Follo, alias EdgySam. Founded The College Edge 20+years ago, but, have loved handicapping college football for more than 35 years ( have every Gold Sheet going back to 1980!).
WHAT: The "Fifty-Three or Free" Bowl Special. Do you know of any other handicapper or service that has a minimal winning percentage in order to get paid?
WHERE: You can sign up right here at collegeedge.blogspot.com. I will attempt to write a synopsis of each of my bowl picks, including totals, right here. You can also enjoy some of my handicapping and wagering philosophies at www.college-edge.com & for pure enjoyment this bowl season and beyond follow me at twitter.com/@EdgySam.
WHEN: Sign up right now at this site by PayPal. If you want to pay by money order, e-mail me at sam@college-edge.com, and we'll figure something out.
WHY: I make no guarantees. I give out no locks. I work hard and get as pumped up handicapping college football as I did when I played sports. I hit 56% of my picks in the 2013 Bowl Season, 57% in last year's Bowl Season. The highlight both years were my New Year's Day performances: I went 9-1 in 2013. I went 7-3 in 2014. FINALLY, I feel I have the talent of any college football handicapper out there ( it's the only sport I handicap). Give me a chance to prove it.
HOW: I will text or e-mail you picks for each bowl game. Sometimes I work these games right up until game-time, so always be ready for a text. Picks will be released in 1/2- and 1-unit increments. In some cases, if I really like a pick, be it totals or a side, I may release a 1.5-unit recommendation.
It is my opinion, you should decide what your unit play will be for the bowl season, and stick to that unit. I'm a firm believer in keeping units the same. I do not believe in parlays, reverses, if bets, etc., unless they are made from a pure fun angle.
I'm hard-working, I love the challenge of handicapping, and I'll be honest in my dealings with you. I hope you'll give me a chance.
Let's have some fun. I promise to work hard for you. SIGN UP NOW.
Under my EdgySam "Fifty-Three or Free" Bowl Special, I have to hit 53% of my Bowl Picks. If not, like the offer states right here at collegeedge.blogspot.com, I will not get paid.
If paid by money order - I'll give you the address upon request - you'll get a complete refund. If paid by PayPal, you'll get a refund of $38.00 of the $40.00 Bowl Special Fee.
Last year, I hit 57% of my bowl picks. In 2013, I hit 56% of my bowl picks.
The Bowl Special is that simple: If I hit 53% of my picks, I get paid. If I hit 52.99% of my picks, I don't get paid. Here is the Who, What, Where, When, Why, and How of my Bowl Special. I hope you'll give it a try.
WHO: Sam Follo, alias EdgySam. Founded The College Edge 20+years ago, but, have loved handicapping college football for more than 35 years ( have every Gold Sheet going back to 1980!).
WHAT: The "Fifty-Three or Free" Bowl Special. Do you know of any other handicapper or service that has a minimal winning percentage in order to get paid?
WHERE: You can sign up right here at collegeedge.blogspot.com. I will attempt to write a synopsis of each of my bowl picks, including totals, right here. You can also enjoy some of my handicapping and wagering philosophies at www.college-edge.com & for pure enjoyment this bowl season and beyond follow me at twitter.com/@EdgySam.
WHEN: Sign up right now at this site by PayPal. If you want to pay by money order, e-mail me at sam@college-edge.com, and we'll figure something out.
WHY: I make no guarantees. I give out no locks. I work hard and get as pumped up handicapping college football as I did when I played sports. I hit 56% of my picks in the 2013 Bowl Season, 57% in last year's Bowl Season. The highlight both years were my New Year's Day performances: I went 9-1 in 2013. I went 7-3 in 2014. FINALLY, I feel I have the talent of any college football handicapper out there ( it's the only sport I handicap). Give me a chance to prove it.
HOW: I will text or e-mail you picks for each bowl game. Sometimes I work these games right up until game-time, so always be ready for a text. Picks will be released in 1/2- and 1-unit increments. In some cases, if I really like a pick, be it totals or a side, I may release a 1.5-unit recommendation.
It is my opinion, you should decide what your unit play will be for the bowl season, and stick to that unit. I'm a firm believer in keeping units the same. I do not believe in parlays, reverses, if bets, etc., unless they are made from a pure fun angle.
I'm hard-working, I love the challenge of handicapping, and I'll be honest in my dealings with you. I hope you'll give me a chance.
Let's have some fun. I promise to work hard for you. SIGN UP NOW.
Saturday, December 5, 2015
#SouthernMiss vs.#WesternKentucky - #BowlSeasonFeel
What we didn't get in the Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green matchup was the big QB battle, due to an injury to Huskie QB Drew Hare. That will not happen in the Southern Miss vs. Western Kentucky matchup. This should be a great QB shootout, as the Hilltoppers' QB Doughty faces off against the Eagles' QB Mullens. Both have had all-star type years in 2015, and, as a result, this may prove to be one of the more entertaining games of the day.
I would rate WKU's Dought slightly higher, but, SoMiss probably has the better running game with Smith leading the way ( 963 yards rushing ), while WKU has lost 1500-yard rusher ( in '14 ) Leon Allen. I also believe, and my numbers back me up, that the Eagles also have the better defense, especially vs. the run.
Under my college-edge ratings, I have Southern Miss rated slightly higher than WKU, and still, the Eagles come into this CUSA championship as an underdog.
If this were bowl season, I would make this a 1-unit play.
Two great quarterbacks and 2 very good offenses lead me to believe this will most likely be a high scoring affair.
If this were bowl season, I would make this a 1/2 unit play.
I would rate WKU's Dought slightly higher, but, SoMiss probably has the better running game with Smith leading the way ( 963 yards rushing ), while WKU has lost 1500-yard rusher ( in '14 ) Leon Allen. I also believe, and my numbers back me up, that the Eagles also have the better defense, especially vs. the run.
Under my college-edge ratings, I have Southern Miss rated slightly higher than WKU, and still, the Eagles come into this CUSA championship as an underdog.
If this were bowl season, I would make this a 1-unit play.
Two great quarterbacks and 2 very good offenses lead me to believe this will most likely be a high scoring affair.
If this were bowl season, I would make this a 1/2 unit play.
Friday, December 4, 2015
#NorthernIllinois vs. #BowlingGreen. EdgySam Bowl Preview
Man, how much fun would this MAC matchup have been if QB Hare of Northern Illinois were playing tonight vs. Bowling Green? Lots of fun.
The trouble is QB Hare is out tonight, and, to make things worse for the Huskies, backup QB Graham, who has done a pretty nice job in place of Hare, is probably out as well.
I don't see how any MAC team can keep up with the high-powered offense of Bowling Green, led by all-star QB Matt Campbell, with a 3rd string QB.
It's a shame because Northern Illinois had been decent in every other facet of the game: They run the ball well and they defend both the run and pass well. The problem is that darn QB position. Last week the Huskies were home vs. an Ohio team they should've handled, even with a 3rd string QB. They didn't.
Ohio held the Huskies to 73 yards rushing, and 21 points. That 21-26 loss to the Bobcats just illustrates how much a sub-par QB can have negative effects on all the aspects of your team.
If it was early in the week and the line was still -9, I'd take Matt Campbell and Bowling Green. The line has moved all the way to -14, and I have no comfort taking the Falcons with that high a spread. I'm letting the side go in tonight's MAC Championship.
With the present totals line of 69, these two teams, in MAC play, have gone under the total 9 times, and over 6 times. Combine that with the fact Northern Illinois does play pretty good defense, and one of tonight's two starting QBs is a 3rd stringer, Edgysam does lean in a small play to the under in tonight's Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green matchup. If this were bowl season, I would make this a 1/2 unit play on the under.
The trouble is QB Hare is out tonight, and, to make things worse for the Huskies, backup QB Graham, who has done a pretty nice job in place of Hare, is probably out as well.
I don't see how any MAC team can keep up with the high-powered offense of Bowling Green, led by all-star QB Matt Campbell, with a 3rd string QB.
It's a shame because Northern Illinois had been decent in every other facet of the game: They run the ball well and they defend both the run and pass well. The problem is that darn QB position. Last week the Huskies were home vs. an Ohio team they should've handled, even with a 3rd string QB. They didn't.
Ohio held the Huskies to 73 yards rushing, and 21 points. That 21-26 loss to the Bobcats just illustrates how much a sub-par QB can have negative effects on all the aspects of your team.
If it was early in the week and the line was still -9, I'd take Matt Campbell and Bowling Green. The line has moved all the way to -14, and I have no comfort taking the Falcons with that high a spread. I'm letting the side go in tonight's MAC Championship.
With the present totals line of 69, these two teams, in MAC play, have gone under the total 9 times, and over 6 times. Combine that with the fact Northern Illinois does play pretty good defense, and one of tonight's two starting QBs is a 3rd stringer, Edgysam does lean in a small play to the under in tonight's Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green matchup. If this were bowl season, I would make this a 1/2 unit play on the under.
Thursday, February 5, 2015
@EdgySam Sums Up the #Alabama 2014 FBS Season
Alabama Handicapping Positives Prior to Start of 2014 Season: Nick Saban; the great recruits Saban and Alabama had coming into 2014 ( the Tide's 3rd string players are better than most mid-level program's top players ); every starting RB and Rec. from '13 came back with the exception of one starter; exceptional punt- and kick-returner in Christion Jones; HC Nick Saban.
Alabama Handicapping Negatives Prior to Start of 2014 Season: Big loss of 3-year starter A.J. McCarron; No standout leader back on defense. 'Bama had a 3rd team SECer and 2nd teamer at MLB and FS, respectively. That is an unusually small amount of star, returning defenders; only 10+ starters in total returned from '13 squad; the loss of a great punter and a very good FG kicker; new O-Coor in Lane Kiffin.
EdgySam Sums Up Alabama's 2014 FBS Season: I thought at the beginning of the season that Alabama would be good simply because they have Saban as a coach and because of the great recruits Saban always gets. I did not think they would win the SEC West, and I did not think they would win the national championship. Despite the loss to Ole Miss., my confidence in that prediction started to waver as Alabama strung together seven straight wins, including three consecutive over LSU, Miss.St, and Auburn.
They eventually did make my national prediction correct when they lost to Ohio St., but, as usual, considering Saban had a new starter at QB, and a fairly inexperienced, returning defense, I thought he did a great job.As usual, every unit on the field performed way above average. Despite a good year from new QB Blake Sims, I thought it very significant that in two of his wins, vs. Arkansas and LSU, Sims did not play well, throwing for under 50% collectively, for those two games. Sims' production in those two wins was one of the major reasons I picked Ohio St. in their semi-final, national championship contest.
Saban is judged by National Championships. Lots of people probably think the Tide's HC had a disappointing '14 season. I'd disagree. EdgySam thinks Saban did a very good job this year.
EdgySam's Very Preliminary Outlook for Alabama in 2015: I'm really stepping out on a limb: The Crimson Tide will contend for the National Championship in 2015. It almost doesn't matter how many starters Saban has coming back. That speaks very clearly to the quality of the recruits Alabama has in the program.
Regardless of that perennial contention to win it all, Saban will have to decide on who the new starting QB will be, and he may have to deal with the loss, due to early departures, of star, junior RB Yeldon and junior Heisman candidate Omari Cooper. The rest of the contending teams in the FBS better hope the Tide has a hard time replacing their top QB, RB and WR because the best defense in the country may reside in Tuscaloosa in 2015. NINE starters will return from this year's defense, including both starting cornerbacks.
If Alabama comes up with a star QB next season, I'll make the Tide and Ohio St. the favorites to win it all in 2015.
Alabama Handicapping Negatives Prior to Start of 2014 Season: Big loss of 3-year starter A.J. McCarron; No standout leader back on defense. 'Bama had a 3rd team SECer and 2nd teamer at MLB and FS, respectively. That is an unusually small amount of star, returning defenders; only 10+ starters in total returned from '13 squad; the loss of a great punter and a very good FG kicker; new O-Coor in Lane Kiffin.
EdgySam Sums Up Alabama's 2014 FBS Season: I thought at the beginning of the season that Alabama would be good simply because they have Saban as a coach and because of the great recruits Saban always gets. I did not think they would win the SEC West, and I did not think they would win the national championship. Despite the loss to Ole Miss., my confidence in that prediction started to waver as Alabama strung together seven straight wins, including three consecutive over LSU, Miss.St, and Auburn.
They eventually did make my national prediction correct when they lost to Ohio St., but, as usual, considering Saban had a new starter at QB, and a fairly inexperienced, returning defense, I thought he did a great job.As usual, every unit on the field performed way above average. Despite a good year from new QB Blake Sims, I thought it very significant that in two of his wins, vs. Arkansas and LSU, Sims did not play well, throwing for under 50% collectively, for those two games. Sims' production in those two wins was one of the major reasons I picked Ohio St. in their semi-final, national championship contest.
Saban is judged by National Championships. Lots of people probably think the Tide's HC had a disappointing '14 season. I'd disagree. EdgySam thinks Saban did a very good job this year.
EdgySam's Very Preliminary Outlook for Alabama in 2015: I'm really stepping out on a limb: The Crimson Tide will contend for the National Championship in 2015. It almost doesn't matter how many starters Saban has coming back. That speaks very clearly to the quality of the recruits Alabama has in the program.
Regardless of that perennial contention to win it all, Saban will have to decide on who the new starting QB will be, and he may have to deal with the loss, due to early departures, of star, junior RB Yeldon and junior Heisman candidate Omari Cooper. The rest of the contending teams in the FBS better hope the Tide has a hard time replacing their top QB, RB and WR because the best defense in the country may reside in Tuscaloosa in 2015. NINE starters will return from this year's defense, including both starting cornerbacks.
If Alabama comes up with a star QB next season, I'll make the Tide and Ohio St. the favorites to win it all in 2015.
Tuesday, February 3, 2015
@EdgySam Sums Up #Vanderbilt 2014 FBS Season
Vanderbilt Handicapping Positives Prior to Start of 2014 Season: There were not many positives for Vandy fans to look forward to prior to start of the 2014 season. Trying hard, I was able to come up with only a couple decent positives: the #1 RB from '13, Jerron Seymour, returned ( okay he only had 700 yards rushing), 4 of the top five offensive linemen from '13 were back, and, well, the top four starters in the defensive line were seniors.
Vanderbilt Handicapping Negatives Prior to Start of 2014 Season: new freshman starter at QB; top 3 receivers gone, including #1 receiver and All-SECer Jordan Matthews( 112 catches!); only four starters back on defense, including no returning defensive backs; the loss of a HC in James Franklin who accomplished the near impossible: 24-15 record in his three years as a HC, including a stellar 25-14 record vs. the spread. For perspective, prior to Franklin's arrival, the Commodores had a 27-56 straight up record for the 7 years prior to Franklin's term as HC. I will make this point: believe it or not, despite the seemingly bad 27-56 record, the HC at the time, Bobby Johnson, did a pretty decent job at the Nashville school.
EdgySam Sums Up Vanderbilt's 2014 Season: With the loss of an outstanding coach in James Franklin, and his replacement, Derek Mason, having NO HC experience entering this 2014 campaign, things would have been grim for the Coomodores. The return of only 9 starters total from '13 would probably make things worse. They did! In my preseason notes, I wrote only 2 words which summarized succinctly my feelings for Vandy's chances in 2014: " Big Trouble." I thought the Commodores would be the worst team in the SEC. They were.
Vandy was 0-8 vs. the SEC. Collectively, the 'Dores were horrible rushing the ball, horrible passing the ball, horrible defending the rush, and horrible defending the pass. Ostensibly, Vanderbilt might be right back in the spot they held before HC Franklin came to Nashville. Will Mason, a HC with no proven track record, be able to return Vandy to the successes of the Franklin era? It will be VERY hard.
EdgySam Very Preliminary Outlook for Vanderbilt in 2015: Quarterback McCrary had a horrible year, but, he is returning and he was the 31st rated QB of his HS class. That should be a positive, right? It should help that McCrary will have eight other starters back on offense from this year's squad.
The Commodores lose most of the D-Linemen from this year's team, but, 7 of the 8 linebackers and D-Backs will return in '15.
Vandy will have a decent amount of starters back from '14, which is usually a good sign. The problem is the returning starters played horribly in '14. I have no confidence that these same starters will not be horrible again in 2015. If Franklin were still the HC, I'd be extremely confident for big things in the new year. He's a proven commodity. Is there any person reading this who has confidence that a HC with only 1 year of experience coaching in the FBS will get results from the upcoming 2015 Commodore team? Speaking only for myself: I don't.
Vanderbilt Handicapping Negatives Prior to Start of 2014 Season: new freshman starter at QB; top 3 receivers gone, including #1 receiver and All-SECer Jordan Matthews( 112 catches!); only four starters back on defense, including no returning defensive backs; the loss of a HC in James Franklin who accomplished the near impossible: 24-15 record in his three years as a HC, including a stellar 25-14 record vs. the spread. For perspective, prior to Franklin's arrival, the Commodores had a 27-56 straight up record for the 7 years prior to Franklin's term as HC. I will make this point: believe it or not, despite the seemingly bad 27-56 record, the HC at the time, Bobby Johnson, did a pretty decent job at the Nashville school.
EdgySam Sums Up Vanderbilt's 2014 Season: With the loss of an outstanding coach in James Franklin, and his replacement, Derek Mason, having NO HC experience entering this 2014 campaign, things would have been grim for the Coomodores. The return of only 9 starters total from '13 would probably make things worse. They did! In my preseason notes, I wrote only 2 words which summarized succinctly my feelings for Vandy's chances in 2014: " Big Trouble." I thought the Commodores would be the worst team in the SEC. They were.
Vandy was 0-8 vs. the SEC. Collectively, the 'Dores were horrible rushing the ball, horrible passing the ball, horrible defending the rush, and horrible defending the pass. Ostensibly, Vanderbilt might be right back in the spot they held before HC Franklin came to Nashville. Will Mason, a HC with no proven track record, be able to return Vandy to the successes of the Franklin era? It will be VERY hard.
EdgySam Very Preliminary Outlook for Vanderbilt in 2015: Quarterback McCrary had a horrible year, but, he is returning and he was the 31st rated QB of his HS class. That should be a positive, right? It should help that McCrary will have eight other starters back on offense from this year's squad.
The Commodores lose most of the D-Linemen from this year's team, but, 7 of the 8 linebackers and D-Backs will return in '15.
Vandy will have a decent amount of starters back from '14, which is usually a good sign. The problem is the returning starters played horribly in '14. I have no confidence that these same starters will not be horrible again in 2015. If Franklin were still the HC, I'd be extremely confident for big things in the new year. He's a proven commodity. Is there any person reading this who has confidence that a HC with only 1 year of experience coaching in the FBS will get results from the upcoming 2015 Commodore team? Speaking only for myself: I don't.
Friday, January 30, 2015
@EdgySam Sums Up #Tennessee 2014 FBS Season
Tennessee Positives Prior to Start of 2014 Season: Returning QBs all had starting experience; I liked coach Butch Jones. He did a good job at Central Michigan and Cincinnati; all of the top receivers returned from the '13 squad; all starting defensive backs from '13 returned to the '14 team.
Tennessee Negatives Prior to Start of 2014 Season: the returning QBs from '13 all returned, but, all had bad years as starters; no full time starters returned to the O-line; lost a 1100-yard rusher from the '13 team; only ONE starter returned to front seven on defense; the Vols play in the toughest conference in the FBS - the SEC.
EdgySam Sums Up Tennessee's 2014 Season: The Vols played up to my expectations. They didn't rush the ball well; they didn't defend the rush well; they didn't pass the ball well. The only part of their game that met expectations, because of the experience at the defensive back positions, was the pass defense. In typical SEC fashion, and which further illustrates how tough the SEC is, Tennessee was 3-5 in conference play, but, were 3-1 in non-conference games. In my preseason notes, I wrote that I should be " worried about new OL, stinky QBs and no D-line. Tread carefully with Vols." Considering weaknesses that coach Jones had coming into '13, it wasn't that bad a year for the team from Knoxville.
EdgySam Very Preliminary Outlook for Tennessee in 2015: 8.5 starters return to the offense, including all of the O-Line. Eight starters return to the defense. Like Kentucky, unless the Vols get improved play from the quarterback position, it'll probably be the same old stuff for them in 2015. They'll get 2, maybe 3 wins at the most, vs. the SEC, and probably kick butt when they play teams outside of their own tough conference. I do like HC Jones a lot. With 16 starters back, he might be able step up in class in the SEC. He might. He probably won't, at least not in 2015.
Tennessee Negatives Prior to Start of 2014 Season: the returning QBs from '13 all returned, but, all had bad years as starters; no full time starters returned to the O-line; lost a 1100-yard rusher from the '13 team; only ONE starter returned to front seven on defense; the Vols play in the toughest conference in the FBS - the SEC.
EdgySam Sums Up Tennessee's 2014 Season: The Vols played up to my expectations. They didn't rush the ball well; they didn't defend the rush well; they didn't pass the ball well. The only part of their game that met expectations, because of the experience at the defensive back positions, was the pass defense. In typical SEC fashion, and which further illustrates how tough the SEC is, Tennessee was 3-5 in conference play, but, were 3-1 in non-conference games. In my preseason notes, I wrote that I should be " worried about new OL, stinky QBs and no D-line. Tread carefully with Vols." Considering weaknesses that coach Jones had coming into '13, it wasn't that bad a year for the team from Knoxville.
EdgySam Very Preliminary Outlook for Tennessee in 2015: 8.5 starters return to the offense, including all of the O-Line. Eight starters return to the defense. Like Kentucky, unless the Vols get improved play from the quarterback position, it'll probably be the same old stuff for them in 2015. They'll get 2, maybe 3 wins at the most, vs. the SEC, and probably kick butt when they play teams outside of their own tough conference. I do like HC Jones a lot. With 16 starters back, he might be able step up in class in the SEC. He might. He probably won't, at least not in 2015.
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