Texas Tech is the comfortably higher rated team in this matchup vs. ISU under my College Edge team ratings. They have a host of returning starters, which include a very good QB in Seth Doege. I think it's important that so many starters return for Texas Tech(15.5), better to remember the whuppin' they took at the hands of ISU last year(7-41), at home.
TEXAS TECH IS THE RECOMMENDATION
Saturday, September 29, 2012
Friday, September 28, 2012
#CollegeEdge Early Sat. Recommendations(Comp!)
Minny vs. Iowa: Minny is without double threat quarterback Gray. Iowa has played mediocre in the early going, but, the Hawkeyes have the much better quarterback, the better defense, and a coach in Kirk Ferentz who has been unreal in the last 10 years vs. the spread, after a loss( 24-10). IOWA IS THE RECOMMENDATION.
N.C.St. vs. Miami: I have the Wolfpack rated higher than the Hurricanes. They are also the underdogs in this contest. It doesn't hurt that St. coach O'Brien has always been very good in the role of a road underdog at both Boston College and N.C.St.( 13-8 in that spot at Raleigh). N.C.ST. IS THE RECOMMENDATION.
Duke vs. Wake Forest: Both teams are prolific at passing the ball with good, experienced QBs(Price and Renfroe) leading the way. Neither team has a particularly strong defense. OVER THE TOTALS IS THE RECOMMENDATION.
N.C.St. vs. Miami: I have the Wolfpack rated higher than the Hurricanes. They are also the underdogs in this contest. It doesn't hurt that St. coach O'Brien has always been very good in the role of a road underdog at both Boston College and N.C.St.( 13-8 in that spot at Raleigh). N.C.ST. IS THE RECOMMENDATION.
Duke vs. Wake Forest: Both teams are prolific at passing the ball with good, experienced QBs(Price and Renfroe) leading the way. Neither team has a particularly strong defense. OVER THE TOTALS IS THE RECOMMENDATION.
#CollegeEdge Picks #Hawaii-#BYU: #TheRecommendation
Two inexperienced quarterbacks will get the starts in tonight's Hawaii-BYU game. Both teams have only 1.5 starters back on each offensive line, and neither team has a better than average running game.
I really like BYU's defense and don't expect Hawaii to have great success tonight, offensively. I am not as confident in Hawaii's defense, but, I am counting on BYU's inexperience to keep the Cougar score relatively low. I'm expecting a BYU win, probably in the neighborhood of 35-10.
THE RECOMMENDATION IN TONIGHT'S HAWAII-BYU CONTEST: UNDER THE TOTALS.
I like BYU to win the game handily tonight, but, I just can't give 25 points in a game most likely started by a freshman quarterback
I really like BYU's defense and don't expect Hawaii to have great success tonight, offensively. I am not as confident in Hawaii's defense, but, I am counting on BYU's inexperience to keep the Cougar score relatively low. I'm expecting a BYU win, probably in the neighborhood of 35-10.
THE RECOMMENDATION IN TONIGHT'S HAWAII-BYU CONTEST: UNDER THE TOTALS.
I like BYU to win the game handily tonight, but, I just can't give 25 points in a game most likely started by a freshman quarterback
#Anatomy of a Handicapped Game, The Results:Stanford at Washington
I WON!
So, why do I feel like I lost?
The answer is matchups like Stanford - Washington are the kind of games that test a handicapper's soul.
I had Washington rated higher than Stanford after the I updated the injury and statistical reports on both teams early in the week. Most times that would've been enough to make a recommendation on the Huskies. But, I kept coming back to that "friggin'" game Stanford played vs. USC. I thought the Cardinal played surprisingly good that day, particularly on defense. SO, I looked further into the PAC 10 matchup, and after asking my myself the five questions I referred to during my series on handicapping the game, I made the decision to stay away from a side.(WE DID GIVE OUT THE UNDER IN THE GAME AS A RECOMMENDATION).
Even though I felt my reasoning was sound to let Washington go as a side in the game, it hurt when the Washington Huskies not only covered, but, won their game, OUTRIGHT.
Consequently, because I put some much weight in my team ratings, it is a constant battle for this handicapper to decide when to, straight-up, go with what those ratings tell me, or, look further into the numbers.
Well, last night, I decided to look further into the numbers, and it probably resulted in my going 1-0 on the night instead of 2-0.
You know what: I'll come across the situation again, and when it does, I'll be tested all over again. I guess it's what makes all this so friggin' challenging.
So, why do I feel like I lost?
The answer is matchups like Stanford - Washington are the kind of games that test a handicapper's soul.
I had Washington rated higher than Stanford after the I updated the injury and statistical reports on both teams early in the week. Most times that would've been enough to make a recommendation on the Huskies. But, I kept coming back to that "friggin'" game Stanford played vs. USC. I thought the Cardinal played surprisingly good that day, particularly on defense. SO, I looked further into the PAC 10 matchup, and after asking my myself the five questions I referred to during my series on handicapping the game, I made the decision to stay away from a side.(WE DID GIVE OUT THE UNDER IN THE GAME AS A RECOMMENDATION).
Even though I felt my reasoning was sound to let Washington go as a side in the game, it hurt when the Washington Huskies not only covered, but, won their game, OUTRIGHT.
Consequently, because I put some much weight in my team ratings, it is a constant battle for this handicapper to decide when to, straight-up, go with what those ratings tell me, or, look further into the numbers.
Well, last night, I decided to look further into the numbers, and it probably resulted in my going 1-0 on the night instead of 2-0.
You know what: I'll come across the situation again, and when it does, I'll be tested all over again. I guess it's what makes all this so friggin' challenging.
Thursday, September 27, 2012
#Anatomy of a Handicapped Game: #TheRecommendation(Stanford-Wash.)
Will Stanford run the ball on Washington? Yes
Will Stanford pass the ball on Washington? This is new starting QB Nunes' first game on the road, and he's without the top 3 receivers from last year's squad. Minimal success passing the ball.
Will Washington run the ball on Stanford? Probably not
Will Washington pass the ball on Stanford? If they move the ball tonight, it will have to be with the experienced QB Price leading the way. He'll have some success tonight, but, not enough to make me confident.
Which team has the emotional edge in tonight's contest? Washington's home for an ESPN, Thursday night game. They were also creamed by the Cardinal last year, 62-21. The emotional edge goes to the Huskies.
The Recommendation: See, what did I write you about my being a slave to my ratings? I have Washington rated higher than Stanford in my College Edge team ratings, but, when asking myself the key questions above, I've just come to the realization that Stanford has the better running game and the better defense. Even though I believe Washington has the edge at quarterback, and Stanford's QB Nunes is starting his first game on the road, I feel too queasy about the Huskies' running game and defense to give them out as a recommendation. No recommendation on a side in this Pac10 matchup.
Because QB Nunes is on the Pac10 road for the first time as a starter, and because I do believe Washington will have trouble both running and passing tonight, the College Edge RECOMMENDS THE UNDER( the totals) in tonight's exciting Pac10, ESPN, Thursday night matchup!
Will Stanford pass the ball on Washington? This is new starting QB Nunes' first game on the road, and he's without the top 3 receivers from last year's squad. Minimal success passing the ball.
Will Washington run the ball on Stanford? Probably not
Will Washington pass the ball on Stanford? If they move the ball tonight, it will have to be with the experienced QB Price leading the way. He'll have some success tonight, but, not enough to make me confident.
Which team has the emotional edge in tonight's contest? Washington's home for an ESPN, Thursday night game. They were also creamed by the Cardinal last year, 62-21. The emotional edge goes to the Huskies.
The Recommendation: See, what did I write you about my being a slave to my ratings? I have Washington rated higher than Stanford in my College Edge team ratings, but, when asking myself the key questions above, I've just come to the realization that Stanford has the better running game and the better defense. Even though I believe Washington has the edge at quarterback, and Stanford's QB Nunes is starting his first game on the road, I feel too queasy about the Huskies' running game and defense to give them out as a recommendation. No recommendation on a side in this Pac10 matchup.
Because QB Nunes is on the Pac10 road for the first time as a starter, and because I do believe Washington will have trouble both running and passing tonight, the College Edge RECOMMENDS THE UNDER( the totals) in tonight's exciting Pac10, ESPN, Thursday night matchup!
Wednesday, September 26, 2012
#Anatomy of a Handicapped Game Part III: #Stanford-#Washington
Sometimes I do all the preliminary work on a game( update injuries, stats, and ratings), and the ratings on each team tell me all I need to know. The Oregon St. pick over UCLA was an example of this type of conclusion. Oregon St. was the higher rated team. The Beavers were an overwhelming dog. They were my pick. No Doubts.
In the case of Stanford-Washington, my ratings aren't as clear. I have the Huskies rated higher than Stanford, but, I saw that friggin' game they played against USC. The Cardinal appeared to be pretty good in that game, even though I try not to let one game overly influence my views. In light of my doubt about my own ratings on this Thursday night matchup, I go to the next step of my handicapping process: the self-test.
Many of you have read about the five questions I ask myself when making my final decision, but, for those of you new to them, here they are:
1) Will Stanford run the ball on Washington?
2) Will Washington run the ball on Stanford?
3) Will Stanford pass the ball on Washington?
4) Will Washington pass the ball on Stanford?
5) Does either team have an emotional edge in the game?
Here's what's cool about this part of handicapping a game. Often times, I like to leave my desk, go to a quiet place,or, while I'm driving somewhere, or, while I'm working, envision the game while asking myself these five questions.
Sometime tonight, or, while driving to work early tomorrow morning I will ask myself these questions. They will help me with my final conclusion. I'm admittedly leaning a certain way right now. Which team will I recommend?
In the case of Stanford-Washington, my ratings aren't as clear. I have the Huskies rated higher than Stanford, but, I saw that friggin' game they played against USC. The Cardinal appeared to be pretty good in that game, even though I try not to let one game overly influence my views. In light of my doubt about my own ratings on this Thursday night matchup, I go to the next step of my handicapping process: the self-test.
Many of you have read about the five questions I ask myself when making my final decision, but, for those of you new to them, here they are:
1) Will Stanford run the ball on Washington?
2) Will Washington run the ball on Stanford?
3) Will Stanford pass the ball on Washington?
4) Will Washington pass the ball on Stanford?
5) Does either team have an emotional edge in the game?
Here's what's cool about this part of handicapping a game. Often times, I like to leave my desk, go to a quiet place,or, while I'm driving somewhere, or, while I'm working, envision the game while asking myself these five questions.
Sometime tonight, or, while driving to work early tomorrow morning I will ask myself these questions. They will help me with my final conclusion. I'm admittedly leaning a certain way right now. Which team will I recommend?
Tuesday, September 25, 2012
The Anatomy of a Handicapped Game Part II: Stanford vs. Washington
Alright, I updated the stats on Washington's and Stanford's games, and, as mentioned, checked the injury reports.
Now, it's time to update the ratings on each team. I made no major adjustments on Stanford's College Edge team ratings. I assumed I would increase my numbers on the Cardinal's new starting QB, considering their 3-0 record, but, surprisingly, his stats were mediocre, at best.
No major adjustments were made on the Washington team ratings, but, they were lowered slightly with the prior mentioned injuries, and a small lowering of my numbers on the Huskies' starting QB, who had a decent game vs. SDSU, but, a bad game against LSU( not unusual; Tiger defense outstanding). Okay, time to add the adjusted ratings for each team.
I added up my Stanford numbers. Now, my own excitement builds as I add up my Washington numbers, and factor in that the Huskies are playing home, in a conference game. Which team do you think had the higher College Edge team rating?
The surprising answer: the Washington Huskies.
If you think that means Washington is the automatic recommendation, you are wrong. I absolutely respect the fact the Seattle team is rated higher than Stanford, but, I'm not a slave to my ratings. They are THE major tool in the handicapping process, but, not the be-all, end-all. What comes next in the handicapping process is sitting back, relaxing, and asking myself some key questions concerning the PAC 10 match-up. Those questions will be asked in Part III of "The Anatomy of a Handicapped Game...." Will the answers to those questions trump the fact I have Washington rated higher than Stanford? We'll see. I'm excited to find out myself!
Now, it's time to update the ratings on each team. I made no major adjustments on Stanford's College Edge team ratings. I assumed I would increase my numbers on the Cardinal's new starting QB, considering their 3-0 record, but, surprisingly, his stats were mediocre, at best.
No major adjustments were made on the Washington team ratings, but, they were lowered slightly with the prior mentioned injuries, and a small lowering of my numbers on the Huskies' starting QB, who had a decent game vs. SDSU, but, a bad game against LSU( not unusual; Tiger defense outstanding). Okay, time to add the adjusted ratings for each team.
I added up my Stanford numbers. Now, my own excitement builds as I add up my Washington numbers, and factor in that the Huskies are playing home, in a conference game. Which team do you think had the higher College Edge team rating?
The surprising answer: the Washington Huskies.
If you think that means Washington is the automatic recommendation, you are wrong. I absolutely respect the fact the Seattle team is rated higher than Stanford, but, I'm not a slave to my ratings. They are THE major tool in the handicapping process, but, not the be-all, end-all. What comes next in the handicapping process is sitting back, relaxing, and asking myself some key questions concerning the PAC 10 match-up. Those questions will be asked in Part III of "The Anatomy of a Handicapped Game...." Will the answers to those questions trump the fact I have Washington rated higher than Stanford? We'll see. I'm excited to find out myself!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)