The 52.4% Barrier: why you have to keep your football wagers the same

You've established a bankroll. Let's say you've determined you can afford to lose $5,000 in a football season. This is what you should wager on games that you consider the best plays of the year, and what I call my major releases: 3%-5% of your total bankroll on each of your major plays during the football season. I prefer 3%. So, in my case, 3% of $5,000 is $150.00. I will wager $150.00 on every one of my major plays, without exception! Why?
You need to hit the magic mark of 52.4% of the major plays you wager on to win money, based on a vigorish commission of 10%. The only way you can guarantee you will win money at the end of the long football season if you hit 52.4% of your major plays is by keeping all your major wagers unwaveringly, the same. Let me illustrate: you have wagered on 100 major plays in a college season. Your record for the year was 53-47. At $150.00 wagered per play, you would have won $7950.00 on your winning plays. At $150.00 wagered per play, you would have lost $7755.00 on your losing plays. Profit at the end of the season: +$145.00.
If you want to put yourself in a position to lose money in a football season, EVEN IF YOU HAVE PICKED MAJOR PLAYS AT A +52.4% rate, go ahead and vary your bets, go ahead and bet teasers, go ahead and bet parlays, go ahead and bet if bets, go ahead and do all the things which will make the house smile.
Let me finish this by illustrating a potentially disastrous college football Saturday. You have four major plays on this coming Saturday. You've wagered $100.00 on each of the first three games. All three of those major plays won. Now, you have a night game, and you're hot, and besides, there's no way the home team can lose on ESPN, so you wager $500.00 on your last major play of the day. The play loses(sound familiar). You hit 75% of you plays on the day. But, due to a total lack of discipline, and common sense, you've won $300.00 on your winning plays, but, lost $550.00 on one. Keep the major play investments the same, and you've won $190.00 on the day. Instead, you've lost $250.00 on the day. Nuff said!

The ACC Coastal Preview: Going out on a limb: Virginia and Duke will not win it

Any one of four teams can win this division, and yes, Duke will be pretty competitive this year!
Miami has the talent to return to the top of the ACC and to national prominence. My negatives are the loss of RB Graig Cooper to injury(though Miami probably has more than enough recruits to overcome his potential season loss), and coach Shannon's 11-13 conference record(8-16 ATS)...I know you read everything I write, so you know how I feel about North Carolina. If they can avoid suspensions, they have the best defense in the ACC( maybe the country), a very good coach and 10 returning starters on offense. They win the ACC Coastal and the ACC...G.T. has coach Johnson, a unique offense with a QB who can run it, and decent returnees on defense. They won't win it because this is the first year in their new 3-4 defense, and they will have adjustment problems somewhere along the line... Virginia Tech has coach Beamer, and a very good offense, so as usual, the Hokies must be considered a threat. But, on defense they've suffered some great losses, and have only 3.5 starters back. I love Beamer, but, he won't win it this year... Duke will be a pain-in-the-neck this year. They have a very good coach, David Cutcliffe, who knows how to run offenses. That's good because he has 8.5 starters back on offense, including one of the highest rated QBs to play at Duke in their history. And, the Duke defense won't be stellar, but, they won't be that bad. The Blue Devils will be a fun team to follow this year. We'll get a chance to see how good some of these teams can be very early. Check these early season matchups: Boise St.vs. V.T.; Miami vs. Okla.; North Carolina vs. LSU. Whew!

CAN N.CAROLINA WIN THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP

North Carolina has a chance to be one of the real surprises of the college football season, and the damn players on that team may have put that chance in danger. The potential suspensions are a cloud over a team has a chance to be spectacular.
But, let's talk about the potential Tar Heel championship.
Their defense will be spectacular. They have 3 all-league performers in their defensive backfield;they have 2 all-league performers at the linebacking spots; and they have 2 all-league performers in the line, including DE Quinn, who had 11 sacks! This may be the best defense in the country.
On the offense, all 6 of the talent positions return, as do 3.5 starters on the offensive line.
Another aspect of North Carolina's chance to surprise this year is the experience of head coach Butch Davis. He's been through national title runs with Miami, and I think the calming effect of his "having been there" will help the Tar Heels if they do get on the run I think they are capable of.
If you are a gambler, North Carolina is worth a small investment to win the national championship.
It just figures that North Carolina has many things going its way, and its players may have jeopardized their team's chance to do something really special.

Yo, Gamblers:Take This Advice...A fan's, handicapper's, and gambler's musings on college football, and other stuff.

The gambling season starts this Thursday night. What I'm about to write is covered in more detail at my web-site, www.college-edge.com, and probably is something you should have read about earlier, and that is the importance of having a bankroll devoted solely to your sports wagering. In the absence of money you've actually set aside for gambling purposes, bankroll might also be considered the money you've determined you can lose this football season.
Let's keep this simple: if you want to conquer the most challenging aspect of sports gambling, discipline, know exactly what it is you can afford to lose in a season. It will keep you from betting scared, and from betting erratically. Knowing what you can afford to lose will keep you calm only if you've developed a sound game-plan on how much you should risk per play. What good is it to determine you can afford to lose $5,000 in a season, and then wager $1,000 per game?
My next posting will offer you advice on what to wager on each game, or, play, based on your bankroll( or what you can afford to lose).

The Big 10 Preview: A fan's, handicapper's,(and gambler's) musings on college football(and other stuff).

Iowa's one weakness would seem to be at OL. That is the area where Coach Frentz got his experience, and he always seems to get the job done there. Eight starters back on defense, including 27 sacks in the DL. Ferentz is incredible ATS(against spread)in 2 categories: 58-36 vs. conference teams; 30-19 as home fav.;25-16 as an away dog. Awesome numbers...38 points per game in '09 for MSU, and they do get QB Cousins back.. on defense they get back 6.5 starters, including a tremendous leader at LB Greg Jones, who had 145 tackles, 9 SACKS, and,oh yeah, was a 1st team All-American...I think Northwestern will be good this year, but, we will just have to see how well new QB Persa performs. He has an expd. offensive line, as well as decent talent position players. Their very experienced linebacking corps should lead...OSU will be a contender again this year. They have 14 starters back, a Heisman candidate at QB, good linebackers, strong cornerbacks, and a coach who simply wins his conference games(59-13 vs. Big 10). For those of us who follow such things, coach Tressel is also a phenomenal 43-28 ATS in conference games. I will not pick them to win the National Championship because I believe QB Pryor will cost his Buckeyes one or two games with sub-par performances...Joe Pa's hiring Bobby Bowden to be his Offensive coordinator. Why not?Even with Bowden, PSU's problems exist in two key areas: QB and Linebackers. They are very inexperienced at both. I originally felt PSU could beat an over-rated Alabama team, but the Nits' inexperienced LBs will have too much trouble handling 'Bama's tough offense. If their new QB(Newsome?) can survive, PSU will still be a good team...Purdue should stink this year. What did I write about bad teams? You can make good money on bad teams... If OSU doesn't win the Big 10, Wisconsin will. GREAT OFFENSE that will just batter opposing defenses. The Badgers have to hope the defense contributes close to what they produced last year. Last year Wiscy returned 4 starters on def. This year they return 6+ starters, so I'll predict the Badgers will do enough on defense to make a real run at the Big 10 title. They play their two major rivals for that title, OSU and Iowa, on consecutive weekends in Oct.

Has the savior arrived at Notre Dame? A fan's, Handicapper's(and gambler's) musings on college football(and other stuff).

When Rodriguez went to Michigan, I thought his arrival would mean a fantastic stretch for the Woverines. That may still happen, but, what has happened to Rodriguez has made me slightly leary on the arrival of coach Brian Kelly to the Notre Dame scene. Having expressed that caution, I do believe Kelly will return the Irish to prominence and become the next great coach at South Bend.
He has great athletes at Notre Dame, and he seems to be a great recruiter. But, what has really impressed me about Kelly was how he developed lower-rated QBs at Cincy into game-winning leaders. e.g. Zach Collaros replaced Tony Pike last year after a Pike injury. Collaros was the 192nd rated QB coming out of high school, and he immediately stepped into Pike's cleats with great stats.( Pike, by the way was only rated 115th coming out of high school).
Here's my problem with N.D. this year: there is no leader on either offense or defense. But, they do have 14 starters back, and like Texas, and Florida, and OKlahoma, and other elite programs, THEY GET THE GREAT RECRUITS.
Kelly takes over a program with pressures he has never experienced before. Unlike Rodriguez of Mich., I think Kelly will continue his recent streak of success.

My thoughts on the Big 11( oops, I mean Big 12). A fan's, handicapper's,(and gambler's) musings on college football( and other stuff).

What the heck is Nebraska doing leaving the Big 12? I guess history doesn't mean crap anymore. Here's the problem for the rest of the Big 12: the Huskers can win the Big 12 this year, and, gulp, the National Championship. Their offense will be spectacular this year, and, even with the loss of Reggie White-like Ndamukong Suh(my favorite player last year), their defense will be very tough once again( strong CBs, and a leader on defense in DL Jared Crick). Will the Big 12 teams on their schedule allow them to leave the league unscathed???The dysfunctional pair of Kansas and Texas Tech have new coaches this year. I believe Mangino and Leach should be credited with turning two moribund programs into consistent winners. Kansas will be in trouble this year under new coach Turner Gill, and Texas Tech may survive the loss of "the genius" Leach, because tested new head coach Tommy Tuberville has a lot starters back on offense, and will attempt to continue the spread offense Leach perfected. Can he???Missou my be the surprise of the Big 12. Good coach, 8 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense, including 2 HM Big 12 CBs...Oklahoma over-rated? I think so. QB Jones needs to impress more, their RBs have been below norm for an Okla. program, and they lose 4 key all-league performers at #1DC DE, Lb, and both CBs( have you picked up yet how important I believe the Cornerback positions are)...Jump against Ok.St. early before the linemakers adjust. The Cowboys will be bad this year... Hope Baylor QB Griffin stays healthy this year. He controls the ball so well( he is a double threat) he not only makes his offense better, but his defense plays better as well...Texas loses Colt McCoy, but, they plug in the #2 rated QB from his graduating high school year, Garrett Gilbert. They also return 2 all-league cornerbacks. And, remember, the Longhorns continue to get the best athletes EVERY year... Look out for Texas A&M this year. They may have the best QB in the league in Jerrod Johnson , and fantastic talent at both RB and receivers. Despite the return of LB Von Miller, who had an incredible 17 sacks last year, it's the questionable defense which will need to respond if the Aggies are to make a national statement. Look for A&M in over-the-total spots...How the teams respond to Nebraska leaving, and how Kansas and T.T. respond to the losses of what I believe were two fantastic coaches, makes the Big 12 an interesting follow this year.