BYU too many injuries. I like HC Bronco Mendenhall getting his team up after three straight losses, but, not enough to make it a recommendation.
Like Oregon, but, not enough to make Ducks a recommendation. Road games vs. WSU and UCLA are scaring me away from a recommendation.
In a fun parlay, make a small investment in BYU and Oregon. But, no recommendation.
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Friday, October 24, 2014
@EdgySam: #USF at #Cincinnati, #THEPICK!
In answer to question I posed last night, no, I don't believe USF's win over Tulsa last week is the start of a positive pattern for the Bulls.I'm going with my collegeedge ratings tonight:
Take Cincinnati in a small( 1/2 unit) play.
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Take Cincinnati in a small( 1/2 unit) play.
NFL picks are ready to go for whoever signs up for my offer. Last comp picks are at Noon Saturday.
Thursday, October 23, 2014
@EdgySam: #Miami vs. #VirginiaTech, #THEPICK
In a very similar situation to tonight's first college game, I don't see how Virginia Tech will bring enough offense to this ACC matchup in order to keep up with Miami's more prolific attack.
The Hokies have been pretty decimated by injuries at the RB position, and QB Brewer has been unable to pick up the slack, having thrown 11 Tds this year, but, an equal amount of interceptions.
The most influential athlete on the field tonight will be the Hurricanes RB Johnson, but, it is also nice to note that QB Kaaya has played steadily better all year, and, I think, is a threat in his own right.
With RB Johnson leading the way, take Miami in a small play, or, 1/2 of your normal Unit play.
EdgySam thinks game will go over the totals, but, does not like it strong enough to give it a recommendation.
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The Hokies have been pretty decimated by injuries at the RB position, and QB Brewer has been unable to pick up the slack, having thrown 11 Tds this year, but, an equal amount of interceptions.
The most influential athlete on the field tonight will be the Hurricanes RB Johnson, but, it is also nice to note that QB Kaaya has played steadily better all year, and, I think, is a threat in his own right.
With RB Johnson leading the way, take Miami in a small play, or, 1/2 of your normal Unit play.
EdgySam thinks game will go over the totals, but, does not like it strong enough to give it a recommendation.
Complimentary picks end with the Noon games this coming Saturday. It's decision time. I have not had a losing season in recent memory, and I hit an unbelievable 73% of my plays for my cleeps in 2011. I can do it again because I work my ass off.
Sign up and you'll also get: Breeder's Cup selections, and NFL picks from other expert handicappers on my panel.
@EdgySam: #UConn at #EastCarolina, #THEPICK
An East Carolina team, which has one of the most prolific QBs in the country in Shane Carden(16tds/4int!), gets a chance to go center-stage tonight in their AAC matchup vs. UConn.
The Pirates are home, they can pass, for sure, and rush the ball, and, you know what, they play pretty decent defense.
The Huskies have played some decent defense this year, but, I don't see how the teams from Storrs, Connecticut(where?) can keep up in any way offensively. Their rushing and passing attacks have been absolutely putrid.
Despite the big line, small play on East Carolina.
A small play is equivalent to 1/2 of your normal unit play.
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The Pirates are home, they can pass, for sure, and rush the ball, and, you know what, they play pretty decent defense.
The Huskies have played some decent defense this year, but, I don't see how the teams from Storrs, Connecticut(where?) can keep up in any way offensively. Their rushing and passing attacks have been absolutely putrid.
Despite the big line, small play on East Carolina.
A small play is equivalent to 1/2 of your normal unit play.
Complimentary picks until the Noon games on Saturday. Then, it is decision time.
If you sign up with me, you'll get the Breeder's Cup card, and NFL picks from other experts on our hard-working panel.
Tuesday, October 21, 2014
@EdgySam: Is Head Coach Record vs. Spread Important?
You've heard this comment before: a college head coach should try to cover the spread in order to keep the alumni and boosters happy. It's true the alumni and boosters are probably real happy when the alma mater covers the spread on Saturdays. But, if that's what's important to a head coach, he'll soon be enjoying those games from the same seats the alumni and boosters are sitting in.
I think the spread record of a head coach is important to me, as a handicapper, because it lets me know if the coach is meeting expectations.
If a head coach has a winning record vs. the spread, it very simply means to me the coach in question is meeting or surpassing the expectations of the line makers. It's tough maintaining a winning record in most programs, period. A consistent winning record vs. the spread is even more noteworthy.
For example, tonight's head coach for ULL, Mark Hudspeth, is in his 4th year in that position. His record in his first three years against the spread was 22-16 ( his straight-up record in that same span was a sterling 27-12). That's a record that this handicapper cannot ignore. When I do my CollegeEdge ratings, ULL's HC successes both straight-up and vs. the spread figure prominently in my final numbers.
On the other hand, the head coach from ULL's opponent tonight, Arkansas St, is in his first year as a head coach...anywhere. Until I learn more about HC Blake Anderson, I must give a decisive handicapping advantage to the experienced Hudspeth.
So, the bottom line for me is simple: if a coach has a winning record vs. the spread, he's meeting expectations, and, as a result, is a very important factor in the handicapping process.
Some of my favorite spread coaches: 1) Bill Snyder. Others include: David Cutcliffe, Saban, Todd Graham, Kirk Ferentz, Bobby Petrino, Urban Meyer, Al Golden, Mike Gundy........
I think the spread record of a head coach is important to me, as a handicapper, because it lets me know if the coach is meeting expectations.
If a head coach has a winning record vs. the spread, it very simply means to me the coach in question is meeting or surpassing the expectations of the line makers. It's tough maintaining a winning record in most programs, period. A consistent winning record vs. the spread is even more noteworthy.
For example, tonight's head coach for ULL, Mark Hudspeth, is in his 4th year in that position. His record in his first three years against the spread was 22-16 ( his straight-up record in that same span was a sterling 27-12). That's a record that this handicapper cannot ignore. When I do my CollegeEdge ratings, ULL's HC successes both straight-up and vs. the spread figure prominently in my final numbers.
On the other hand, the head coach from ULL's opponent tonight, Arkansas St, is in his first year as a head coach...anywhere. Until I learn more about HC Blake Anderson, I must give a decisive handicapping advantage to the experienced Hudspeth.
So, the bottom line for me is simple: if a coach has a winning record vs. the spread, he's meeting expectations, and, as a result, is a very important factor in the handicapping process.
Some of my favorite spread coaches: 1) Bill Snyder. Others include: David Cutcliffe, Saban, Todd Graham, Kirk Ferentz, Bobby Petrino, Urban Meyer, Al Golden, Mike Gundy........
@EdgySam: #ArkansasState vs. #ULL, #THEPICK!
Do I fear the possibility of taking ULL two weeks in a row? Absolutely. The team the Cajuns are facing is better than the Texas St. team ULL played last week, and Arkansas St. is riding a nice 3-game winning streak.
BUT, ULL is a team that comes into their home game tonight in Lafayette as an underdog, despite the fact I have the Cajuns as the higher rated team under my CollegeEdge ratings.
Some reasons ULL comes into the game rated higher is more experience at the QB position(though new QB Knighten has played pretty well this year for the Red Wolves), and most of the other offensive positions as well, the coaching edge, in my opinion, of 4-yr. HC Hudspeth over 1st year HC Anderson, and the fact ULL is playing home, where the Cajuns have been a home underdog only one time in coach Hudspeth's tenure at Lafayette. By the way, ULL covered in that only home underdog situation.
Will this be a tough game tonight? No doubt, in my mind, it will be, but, my ratings tell me the wrong team is favored.
ULL in a small play. I would define a small play as a 1/2 Unit play.
These weeknight games will be the last of the CollegeEdge complimentary releases.
You'll notice on this page my 2014 College Football Regular Season Offer, which will also include the Breeder's Cup picks, and NFL picks from other handicappers who specialize in those sports.
I hope you'll consider signing up for the balance of the regular season. I hit 73% for my cleeps in 2011! I can do it again because I work my butt off.
BUT, ULL is a team that comes into their home game tonight in Lafayette as an underdog, despite the fact I have the Cajuns as the higher rated team under my CollegeEdge ratings.
Some reasons ULL comes into the game rated higher is more experience at the QB position(though new QB Knighten has played pretty well this year for the Red Wolves), and most of the other offensive positions as well, the coaching edge, in my opinion, of 4-yr. HC Hudspeth over 1st year HC Anderson, and the fact ULL is playing home, where the Cajuns have been a home underdog only one time in coach Hudspeth's tenure at Lafayette. By the way, ULL covered in that only home underdog situation.
Will this be a tough game tonight? No doubt, in my mind, it will be, but, my ratings tell me the wrong team is favored.
ULL in a small play. I would define a small play as a 1/2 Unit play.
These weeknight games will be the last of the CollegeEdge complimentary releases.
You'll notice on this page my 2014 College Football Regular Season Offer, which will also include the Breeder's Cup picks, and NFL picks from other handicappers who specialize in those sports.
I hope you'll consider signing up for the balance of the regular season. I hit 73% for my cleeps in 2011! I can do it again because I work my butt off.
Saturday, October 18, 2014
@EdgySam: #Stanford vs #ASU & #Nevada vs #BYU, #THEPICKS!
I have Nevada as the higher rated team in their contest vs. BYU. They come into this away game as an underdog. The Cougars have two major injuries entering the game, one on each side of the ball, and each injured player is probably the best player on their respective units(QB Hill; LB Fua).
I also like that the far more experienced QB in tonight's game is 4-yr.-starter Fajardo.
Take Nevada
ASU has a porous defense that has only 1.5 starters back from the '13 team. No matter how good Stanford's defense is, and it is good, innovative HC Graham of ASU will figure out how to put some points on the board. Surprised the totals line is dropping, and I LIKE IT.
Take the over in the Stanford-ASU game.
As written above, the Sun Devils have only 1.5 starters back from '13, and it shows. Stanford not an offensive show, but, this is the worst PAC 12 team they've faced this year, and I have no doubt they'll score a decent amount of points. The Cardinal defense is not up to last year's ability, but, the unit is still very good.
I also like the fact HC Shaw is 10-4 as a road favorite, and ASU is coming off a very lucky win over USC.
Take Stanford.
This is the last full week of complimentary picks. Picks will continue through at least this Thursday night. Stay tuned
I also like that the far more experienced QB in tonight's game is 4-yr.-starter Fajardo.
Take Nevada
ASU has a porous defense that has only 1.5 starters back from the '13 team. No matter how good Stanford's defense is, and it is good, innovative HC Graham of ASU will figure out how to put some points on the board. Surprised the totals line is dropping, and I LIKE IT.
Take the over in the Stanford-ASU game.
As written above, the Sun Devils have only 1.5 starters back from '13, and it shows. Stanford not an offensive show, but, this is the worst PAC 12 team they've faced this year, and I have no doubt they'll score a decent amount of points. The Cardinal defense is not up to last year's ability, but, the unit is still very good.
I also like the fact HC Shaw is 10-4 as a road favorite, and ASU is coming off a very lucky win over USC.
Take Stanford.
This is the last full week of complimentary picks. Picks will continue through at least this Thursday night. Stay tuned
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