@EdgySam: #SDSU vs. #NewMexico, #ThePick

In the #SDSU vs. #NewMexico game tomorrow night, I have my first game of the week where my collegeedge ratings say the team that should be favored is the squad getting points. The Lobos are home on Friday night in a MWC game vs. the Aztecs of SanDiegoSt and instead of being favored in the game, as I believe they should be, New Mexico is the underdog.
The major reason New Mexico should be favored in the game is the loss of SDSU's efficient and underrated QB, Quinn Kaehler. His replacement is young(a freshman), inexperienced, and played horribly in his only start of the year(vs. Fresno St.).
Other reasons I think Lobos should be favored: Aztecs have only 3.5 starters back on defense, and they will be assigned the complicated task of facing an option offense; New Mexico showed an ability to play decent defense in the first half of the Fresno St. and played very well defensively last week in their 21-9 win over UTSA; finally home team has the chance to make up for an earlier, big stage, Friday night loss at Fresno St.
Look, I always worry when I go with a team that has been pretty bad in recent years. But, I think coach Bob Davie has been doing a decent job in Albuquerque( three years prior to Davie's arrival, New Mexico went 1-11 three consecutive years).
Take New Mexico. Take it as soon as possible. Line is going down.

@EdgySam: #BoiseState vs. #Nevada, #THEPICK

For the second week in a row, we have one of the last scheduled games on the card.
Under my CollegeEdge ratings, I have Nevada rated higher than BoiseSt, and yet the Wolfpack come into their home game as an underdog.
Nevada has a 4-yr. starter at QB in Fajardo. He is under rated. The Reno squad also has a strong nucleus of starters returning from '13, and have they played well this year. Two of their well played games were against WSU and Arizona of the Pac12, defeating Wazzou 24-13, and playing at Tucson tough in a 28-35 loss.
I'm always afraid of the Broncos, but, remember HC Chris Petersen left for Washington, and, I don't believe this Boise St squad is as well coached. In fact, Nevada has the more experienced coaching staff.
The public is betting BoiseSt. I like it.
Take the team I have rated higher: Nevada

@EdgySam: #Wisconsin vs. #Northwestern, #ThePick

Well, I picked Northwestern early on as my surprise team in the Big 10. The Wildcats disappointed me early, but, they did so in non-league play. In their first league matchup, the Pat Fitzgerald-coached team won pretty decisively on the road vs. Penn State. It's time for the Wildcats to continue playing like I thought they could.
I have Northwestern rated higher than Wisconsin under my CollegeEdge ratings, and, still they come into their home game as an underdog. Have to go with my ratings!

Take Northwestern

@EdgySam: #UtahState vs. #BYU, #ThePick!

Sometimes a bargain is a bargain. Don't over-think the decision. With QB Keeton out for UtahSt, I don't see how the Aggies can stay close. Take BYU.

@EdgySam: #SanDiegoState vs. #FresnoState, #ThePick

Two inexperienced QBs start tonight for Fresno St. and SDSU, respectively. The Bulldogs lose the fabulous, #2 DC, Derek Carr, and the Aztecs lose underrated returning starter from '13, Kaehler, to an injury. SDSU has that goofy 4-2-5 defense, which I believe will give new starter Burrell lots of trouble, and I believe the 8.5 returning starters from the Bulldogs squad will give the young Aztec, QB starter trouble as well. As a result, I believe both offenses will play conservatively, keeping the score under the fairly high totals.
Take the under

With the loss of QB Kaehler tonight, my CollegeEdge ratings favor FresnoSt. strongly. I'm going to ride my ratings, and believe we'll see FresnoSt continue to improve from their slow start this year, albeit, a slow start vs. an unbelievably difficult early schedule.

Take the home team. Fresno St.

#EdgySam: #Louisville vs. #Syracuse, #ThePick

One of the most amazing stats of the year: Syracuse ran for 370 yards vs. Maryland ( 7.3 yards per carry!), and gave up only 89 on the ground vs. the Terps. Somehow, the Orange figured out a way to trail by 13-31 at the half of that game, and eventually lose by the score of 20-34. That game shows me what Syracuse is capable of accomplishing.
Syracuse is the home underdog, but, is the higher rated team under my CollegeEdge ratings. I don't think we'll see a letdown and I like the fact the Orange are home for a Friday night, ESPN game.
By the way, Louisville will start a freshman tonight. I think that helps my (our?) cause.
Take the team I think should be the slight favorite in this ACC matchup: Syracuse.

Pay attention for potential plays tonight.

@EdgySam: #FAU vs #FIU, #ThePick

@EdgySam works on his team ratings starting in early July. Those ratings are my most important handicapping tool. Tonight, I have FIU as the higher rated team in their contest vs.FAU. That would normally make the Golden Panthers my pick. Higher rated team getting points at home would normally be the almost automatic play.
FIU has loads of returning starters from '13. The problem is those returning starters played on an absolutely horrible team. They had a horrible rush attack last year. They've shown little improvement this year. They had a horrible passing attack last year. They've shown little improvement this year. They had a horrible defense last year. What scares me a little is the FIU defense has shown improvement in '14.
FAU, in competition similar to FIU, has beaten Tulsa, played well in a 19-20 loss to Wyoming, and in the most impressive game of their year, beat an up and coming UTSA squad, 41-37.
The Owls have also displayed something the Golden Panthers have yet to display: leadership at the offensive, talent positions. They have gotten good play from QB Jaquez Johnson (he can pass and throw), and, very important, have gotten rushing stats from RB Warren. It's great the Owls have two definite threats on the offensive side of the ball.
It doesn't hurt that FIU beat UAB last week playing an absolute dreadful game offensively. I think that's brought the pointspread down tonight.
Take FAU(Florida Atlantic).

In the other 7:00p.m. contest, two defenses that have a combined 19 starters back face two, respective offenses that have struggled so far this year.
Take the under in the UCF - Houston contest.
I'll be back late tonight for a potential play on Oregon - Arizona game.