@EdgySam: #FAU vs #FIU, #ThePick

@EdgySam works on his team ratings starting in early July. Those ratings are my most important handicapping tool. Tonight, I have FIU as the higher rated team in their contest vs.FAU. That would normally make the Golden Panthers my pick. Higher rated team getting points at home would normally be the almost automatic play.
FIU has loads of returning starters from '13. The problem is those returning starters played on an absolutely horrible team. They had a horrible rush attack last year. They've shown little improvement this year. They had a horrible passing attack last year. They've shown little improvement this year. They had a horrible defense last year. What scares me a little is the FIU defense has shown improvement in '14.
FAU, in competition similar to FIU, has beaten Tulsa, played well in a 19-20 loss to Wyoming, and in the most impressive game of their year, beat an up and coming UTSA squad, 41-37.
The Owls have also displayed something the Golden Panthers have yet to display: leadership at the offensive, talent positions. They have gotten good play from QB Jaquez Johnson (he can pass and throw), and, very important, have gotten rushing stats from RB Warren. It's great the Owls have two definite threats on the offensive side of the ball.
It doesn't hurt that FIU beat UAB last week playing an absolute dreadful game offensively. I think that's brought the pointspread down tonight.
Take FAU(Florida Atlantic).

In the other 7:00p.m. contest, two defenses that have a combined 19 starters back face two, respective offenses that have struggled so far this year.
Take the under in the UCF - Houston contest.
I'll be back late tonight for a potential play on Oregon - Arizona game.

@EdgySam: Two NightTime #Picks(one at 10:30p.m.!)

In the #Missouri vs.#SouthCarolina game, my college edge ratings will govern my selection. I believed before the season this would be a difficult year for the Tigers after such a great performance last year. They lost an experienced QB, a 1000-yard rusher, their top 3 receivers, 20+sacks in the defensive line and both cornerbacks(Gaines was a 2nd team AA!). That's too much to lose vs. a team that I think still has a chance to win the SEC East. It doesn't hurt that the Ball Coach, Steve Spurrier, is very good in the role of home favorite.
Take South Carolina

Oregon St. is 3-0, but, they've gotten their wins vs. Potland ST, Hawaii, and SDSU. None of the those teams could expose the losses the Beavers experienced from their '13 squad. Oregon St. won't run the ball vs. USC, and they don't have the weapons in the passing game to to make up the difference like they did in '13.USC will run the ball vs.OrSU, and with the loss of a 2x Pac12 CB, I believe they will pass the ball as well. Throw in the fact the Trojans were embarrassed the last time out on national TV by BC, and let's say I'm very happy the public seems to betting Oregon State.
Take the USC Trojans.

@EdgySam: #WakeForest vs. #Louisville, #ThePick

@EdgySam likes to look at bad teams as well looking for good teams. I think Wake Forest will prove to be  the worst team in the ACC, if not one of the worst teams in the FBS. The Demon Deacons only ran for 100 yards vs. Army and ran for -25 yards vs. Utah St. When Louisville stops Wake's running game, which I believe they will, they have almost no strength in their passing attack.
It will not help Wake's cause that they only have 1.5 starters back in the defensive interior. Innovative HC of Cardinals, Bobby Petrino, will exploit the Demon Deacons' weaknesses.
Not worried about the spread. Take Louisville.

@EdgySam: #Northwestern vs. #PSU, The Pick

It's about time #Northwestern steps up and plays up to the level I thought they would play at before the season started. I have the Wildcats rated higher than the Nits, and they come into the Big 10 contest as an underdog, a nice situation for EdgySam.
NW has more starters back than PSU, including an experienced QB, all of their '13 O-Line starters and an experienced defense, highlighted by all four starters back in the defensive backfield.
Nice final touch is HC Fitzgerald rises to occasion in road games, posting a winning record vs. spread as a road underdog.
In our only Noon play, take Northwestern.

#FresnoState vs. #NewMexico: The Pick

New Mexico gave up 7.5 y.p.c. and 330 yards rushing vs. UTEP. Wow. ASU got 423 yards rushing vs. Lobos at 8.8 y.p.c., and gave up 35 points to New Mexico St in a 3-point win. That is a horrible defense.
Fresno St. has 3 big losses as well, but, at least they lost to USC, Utah, and Nebraska, three good programs.
The Bulldogs have a new QB this year, after losing the spectacular Derek Carr, but the replacement is an experienced transfer from Duke. They have a solid trio of RBs back from last year, and 8.5 starters back from '13 defense.
The higher rated team, according to my CollegeEdge ratings, and the team with the winning history is the pick.
Take Fresno State Bulldogs

#UCLA vs. #ASU: The Pick

UCLA may not have Hundley at QB, but, the big loss in this game is the loss of ASU's returning QB, Taylor Kelly. His loss may be bigger tonight because of the paucity of returning starters from the Sun Devil squad. His experience was key with the loss of so many '13 starters.
In addition to the loss of QB Kelly, ASU has only 2 starters back on defense! HC Graham is a very good coach, but, I feel he has too much to overcome in what is somewhat of a revenge game for the Bruins( ASU beat UCLA in Rose Bowl last year, 38-33).
Believe it, or not, I'd like to see Hundley play, but, not overly concerned if he does not play.
UCLA is the pick. In a smaller play, take the under in the same game.

#TexasTech vs. #OklahomaState: The Pick

No letdown factor tonight, so #Edgysam goes to his CollegeEdge ratings for support.
Texas Tech has the returning starter strength on offense, with QB Webb, almost a completely intact O-Line back and experience at both the RB and Receiver positions. If I have trouble tonight with the Red Raiders it will be because of their questionable defense.
What is heartening, if, like me, you are worried about the TT defense, is Oklahoma St. has almost no returning experience on offense. They had a little experience back at QB in Walsh, but, the Cowboys lost him to a season-ending injury. His replacement, Daxx Garman, wasn't even on the QB radar in 2013.
HC Gundy is one of the great spread coaches in the FBS, but, EdgySam, yours truly, has this game very closely contested, according to my team ratings.
Take Texas Tech, and buy the 1/2 pt if the spread is 14.