Over the years, @Edgysam and the College Edge have had a lot of success handicapping the weeknight FBS schedule. Over those same years, I've tried to figure out why. One of the reasons was the simple fact the weeknight schedule includes only one or two games. It's nice to narrow your focus on only two to four teams.
My picks over this past weekend have opened my handicapping eyes to a more important reason why I do a pretty good job on weeknight games. I also think this sort of revelation will help me with weekend games as well.
I lost two picks this past weekend where the teams I selected were the much higher rated teams under my College Edge ratings: Virginia Tech and USC. The problem in both games, a problem I acknowledged, was both teams were coming off of gigantic wins the prior week: the Hokies over Ohio St.; the Trojans over Stanford. Any rational handicapper had to look at these two sides and seriously consider there might be a letdown. I thought the ratings edges would overcome the letdown possibilities. I was wrong.
So, how did those two bad losses open my eyes to my Thursday successes and possibly help me in my future handicapping?
Weeknight games on ESPN or FoxSports are the highlight games of that night. Those college kids are the focal point of the entire nation. In some cases(like last week's game between LaTech and North Texas), it might be one of the only times any of these players will ever experience that kind of exposure.
The chances of a letdown on this national stage are far less likely than they would be on a schedule-crowded Saturday. In my opinion, the College Edge ratings I've developed over the years are more likely to hold true on weeknights. Letdowns are less likely to have an effect on those games.
On crowded weekend schedules, I have always considered intangibles like the letdown possibility, Henceforth, I need to give that even more consideration.
Monday, September 15, 2014
Saturday, September 13, 2014
@EdgySam Gives Out His 12:00p.m. Picks
Last week I didn't like any Noon-starting games, this week, I like FIVE. Well, the excitement starts early today. Here are my five plays:
Indiana: time to put up, or shut up. Lots of starters back, including good, experienced QBs
Maryland: tough matchup vs. West Virginia, but, Terps have loads of starters back, too.
UCF: I think Missouri is overrated.
Virginia: I have them rated higher than the favored team in this game.
Virginia Tech: East Carolina scary enough that I don't expect a letdown from the Ohio St. conquerors.
Indiana: time to put up, or shut up. Lots of starters back, including good, experienced QBs
Maryland: tough matchup vs. West Virginia, but, Terps have loads of starters back, too.
UCF: I think Missouri is overrated.
Virginia: I have them rated higher than the favored team in this game.
Virginia Tech: East Carolina scary enough that I don't expect a letdown from the Ohio St. conquerors.
Friday, September 12, 2014
@EdgySam asks: Is #Baylor Spread Too High?
Probably.
I am no longer afraid of big spreads. There was a time when I'd automatically eliminate games with spreads of -20 or higher. What the hell was I thinking? As I wrote earlier this week, there are bargains to be found at every spread level.
Baylor will score tonight, and score a lot. Head Coach Art Briles is merciless as far as running up the score. They are facing a Buffalo defense, which lost one of the best defenders in all of college football last year, #1 DC, LB Khalil Mack, and which has only 4 total starters back on defense.
What's making me hesitant to give out Baylor (for now) is the fact Buffalo is home, and the Bulls have an experienced returning QB in Joe Liciata and an experienced offensive line. I am also a little alarmed by the 3-4 injuries in the wide receiver corps, including the loss of 3rd AA wr Antwan Goodley( of course, Bulls defense might not be able to do anything about those string of injuries).
Right now, edgysam thinks this line might be a little too high, but, I have plenty of time to reconsider.
I am no longer afraid of big spreads. There was a time when I'd automatically eliminate games with spreads of -20 or higher. What the hell was I thinking? As I wrote earlier this week, there are bargains to be found at every spread level.
Baylor will score tonight, and score a lot. Head Coach Art Briles is merciless as far as running up the score. They are facing a Buffalo defense, which lost one of the best defenders in all of college football last year, #1 DC, LB Khalil Mack, and which has only 4 total starters back on defense.
What's making me hesitant to give out Baylor (for now) is the fact Buffalo is home, and the Bulls have an experienced returning QB in Joe Liciata and an experienced offensive line. I am also a little alarmed by the 3-4 injuries in the wide receiver corps, including the loss of 3rd AA wr Antwan Goodley( of course, Bulls defense might not be able to do anything about those string of injuries).
Right now, edgysam thinks this line might be a little too high, but, I have plenty of time to reconsider.
Thursday, September 11, 2014
#EdgySam Pick in #LaTech vs. #NorthTexas #AAC Game
@Edgysam gets a #GoldSheet every week. I have a library of them going back to 1980! I have the utmost respect for the knowledge the Gold Sheet imparts. I don't use their weekly picks for my picks, but, I read everything I can on their sheets to see if they write about something I may have missed.
Tonight, the sheet gave me two things to consider I missed: North Texas' success, recently, at home vs. the spread, and, the fact Louisiana Tech is playing their third consecutive road game in the short span of 12 days, an unusual way to start a new season.
Those facts, plus the large drop from +6.5 to +3, will keep me from making Louisiana Tech a major play. I have both teams' college edge ratings almost exactly the same.
The Gold Sheet weekly publication picked North Texas. My major disagreement with that pick was the new, efficient QB play of LaTech's Cody Sokol. He is the 56th rated QB coming out of his HS class, and an Iowa transfer. This type of highly rated QB rarely plays on a program like LaTech's. The quality of QB has improved immeasurably from '13! The Gold Sheet never mentioned Sokol in its synopsis.
Take Louisiana Tech Bulldogs and keep an eye out for a very special talent at RB: Kenneth Dixon
Tonight, the sheet gave me two things to consider I missed: North Texas' success, recently, at home vs. the spread, and, the fact Louisiana Tech is playing their third consecutive road game in the short span of 12 days, an unusual way to start a new season.
Those facts, plus the large drop from +6.5 to +3, will keep me from making Louisiana Tech a major play. I have both teams' college edge ratings almost exactly the same.
The Gold Sheet weekly publication picked North Texas. My major disagreement with that pick was the new, efficient QB play of LaTech's Cody Sokol. He is the 56th rated QB coming out of his HS class, and an Iowa transfer. This type of highly rated QB rarely plays on a program like LaTech's. The quality of QB has improved immeasurably from '13! The Gold Sheet never mentioned Sokol in its synopsis.
Take Louisiana Tech Bulldogs and keep an eye out for a very special talent at RB: Kenneth Dixon
Monday, December 16, 2013
@EdgySam 2013 College Bowl Offer: YO, It's a Money Back Pledge!
@EdgySam and the #CollegeEdge start the college football season in the warmth of July by doing team ratings on every Division 1, FBS college team. I've started every season that way for at least the last 30 years.
Those ratings are probably the most important factor in my handicapping of college football games, and the cool thing: those ratings change every darn week of the season. A team has an injury, the ratings change. I hand write the stats for a team's games every week. You know what happens: the ratings change.
Nothing is more important in my handicapping analysis than my team ratings. Is it the only factor I use when making my final decisions? Hell no, but, it's, without a doubt, one of the biggest pieces of the handicapping puzzle.
When I approach a College Bowl Season, and each individual bowl game, I pretty much will have what I consider each team's final ratings going into that game. A season's worth of weekly adjustments and study and analysis come to a head when I make my final handicapping decisions. And, you know what's cool: my team ratings are all of my doing. It's 30 years of trial and error, and a continual learning process.And, it's all mine!
When you sign up with me for the bowl season, you get a hard-working dude who will put every ounce of his effort into making your experience a profitable and fun one. I will work all 35 bowl games. I will analyze sides as well as totals, and I will make recommendations that I expect you to follow. And, if I do not hit 53.8% of my College Bowl picks, you will get $33.00 of the $35.00 paypal payment returned. If you send a money order for $35.00, you'll get the whole amount back. That's right, if I don't produce this bowl season, I don't get paid.
Recommendations will be given mostly in 1-unit increments. Stronger plays will be accorded a 2-unit status. 1-unit plays will count as one win, or, one loss toward my overall Bowl record. 2-unit plays will count as two wins, or, two losses toward my overall Bowl record.
So, using the first bowl game as an example, if I give out Washington State as a 1-unit play, and WSU wins, I start the season with a 1-0 record. If I give out the over in the same game as a 2-unit play, and the game goes over, I will have started the bowl season 3-0. I usually give out about 6-10, 2-unit plays during a typical Bowl Season.
Here's is the part of the Bowl Season that will raise the fun level to new heights. Not every bowl side or total will reach the level of a 1-, or, 2-unit play. But, I have a lean on almost every side and total. For those "leans," I'll recommend that you make those leans part of small parlay plays. Nothing big. Just something to have fun with. These "lean" plays should be very small and will not be counted against my overall Bowl percentage record.
So, that's where it stands: I've put in the time. Let me work for you this Bowl Season. There are 35 stinking games, and you'll have an interest in every single one of them. I've worked my ass off to get to this point, and it's the most wonderful time of the year. Why not join me?
On this page, you will see my offer to your right. Click the $35.00, College Bowl Offer and let's get ready, together, for one hell of a Bowl-Ride!
Texting is the preferred way to distribute the picks, but, I will try to accommodate all requests.
Those ratings are probably the most important factor in my handicapping of college football games, and the cool thing: those ratings change every darn week of the season. A team has an injury, the ratings change. I hand write the stats for a team's games every week. You know what happens: the ratings change.
Nothing is more important in my handicapping analysis than my team ratings. Is it the only factor I use when making my final decisions? Hell no, but, it's, without a doubt, one of the biggest pieces of the handicapping puzzle.
When I approach a College Bowl Season, and each individual bowl game, I pretty much will have what I consider each team's final ratings going into that game. A season's worth of weekly adjustments and study and analysis come to a head when I make my final handicapping decisions. And, you know what's cool: my team ratings are all of my doing. It's 30 years of trial and error, and a continual learning process.And, it's all mine!
When you sign up with me for the bowl season, you get a hard-working dude who will put every ounce of his effort into making your experience a profitable and fun one. I will work all 35 bowl games. I will analyze sides as well as totals, and I will make recommendations that I expect you to follow. And, if I do not hit 53.8% of my College Bowl picks, you will get $33.00 of the $35.00 paypal payment returned. If you send a money order for $35.00, you'll get the whole amount back. That's right, if I don't produce this bowl season, I don't get paid.
Recommendations will be given mostly in 1-unit increments. Stronger plays will be accorded a 2-unit status. 1-unit plays will count as one win, or, one loss toward my overall Bowl record. 2-unit plays will count as two wins, or, two losses toward my overall Bowl record.
So, using the first bowl game as an example, if I give out Washington State as a 1-unit play, and WSU wins, I start the season with a 1-0 record. If I give out the over in the same game as a 2-unit play, and the game goes over, I will have started the bowl season 3-0. I usually give out about 6-10, 2-unit plays during a typical Bowl Season.
Here's is the part of the Bowl Season that will raise the fun level to new heights. Not every bowl side or total will reach the level of a 1-, or, 2-unit play. But, I have a lean on almost every side and total. For those "leans," I'll recommend that you make those leans part of small parlay plays. Nothing big. Just something to have fun with. These "lean" plays should be very small and will not be counted against my overall Bowl percentage record.
So, that's where it stands: I've put in the time. Let me work for you this Bowl Season. There are 35 stinking games, and you'll have an interest in every single one of them. I've worked my ass off to get to this point, and it's the most wonderful time of the year. Why not join me?
On this page, you will see my offer to your right. Click the $35.00, College Bowl Offer and let's get ready, together, for one hell of a Bowl-Ride!
Texting is the preferred way to distribute the picks, but, I will try to accommodate all requests.
Wednesday, October 30, 2013
Weekend Offer includes:#Breeder'sCup, FBS and NFL Picks. WOW
We kicked off what should be a fun week of sports consulting with the under the totals recommendation in the Cincinnati vs. Memphis contest. I was this close to making the Tigers a pick in the game as well, but, I just didn't trust the numbers produced by freshman QB Lynch so far this season. I also wrote to my clients that Memphis just might be one of the most improved teams in the country, despite their 1-5 record.
Now, time to tell you about Weekend Offer, which costs only $25.00 and includes:
1) All of my college football picks for this Weekend. Incidentally, I hit 73% in 2011 for my clients. In 2012, I hit 56% for my clients. So far this year, I'm 49-38 for my clients. Job well done.
2) All Breeder's Cup Races Picks from our Horse Racing guru, Dan. And, yes, we will include Friday's races.
3) 3-5 NFL Picks.
With a whole lot of discipline, we hope you'll sign up and set yourself up for a whole lot of fun this weekend!
Now, time to tell you about Weekend Offer, which costs only $25.00 and includes:
1) All of my college football picks for this Weekend. Incidentally, I hit 73% in 2011 for my clients. In 2012, I hit 56% for my clients. So far this year, I'm 49-38 for my clients. Job well done.
2) All Breeder's Cup Races Picks from our Horse Racing guru, Dan. And, yes, we will include Friday's races.
3) 3-5 NFL Picks.
With a whole lot of discipline, we hope you'll sign up and set yourself up for a whole lot of fun this weekend!
Monday, October 28, 2013
I'm 49-38 vs.The Spread: Yeah, That's Good! Here's Why
I'm 49-38 vs. the spread this year. I had someone write me that I'm barely covering the vig. My first reaction to that criticism was: " you've got to be kidding." Here's why.
I am a firm believer that if you are a serious sports gambler, the only way you have a chance to beat the system and win money over the long haul is by figuring out what you can afford to lose. After you've made that determination, then you have to wager the same amount, based on what you can afford to lose, on every one of your plays.
I've made 87 recommendations for my people this year. If one of my people decided all they can afford to lose on my plays is $10.00 per bet, they would have won $490.00 on my winners, and lost $418.00 on my losers, for a profit of $72.00.
If one of my people decided they could afford to lose $50.00 for each of my plays, and invested that much in each of my plays, they would have won $2450.00. They would have lost $2090.00 on my losers. That's a profit of $360.00.
If one of my people decided they could afford to lose $100.00 for each of my plays, and invested that much in each of my plays, they would have won $4900.00. They would have lost $4180.00 on my losers. That's a profit of $720.00!
Do you see where I'm going with this? 49-38 is a good record. Period!
Here's the problem. I can't control what gamblers do with my picks. Some guys fluctuate what they bet per game. They might get lucky and win the plays they bet more on. But, what if they lose those inflated bets? They've opened the door to losing money, despite a very good winning percentage.
Other guys take my picks and use them in parlays and reverses and if bets. If they get lucky and win those fancy bets, yeah, they'll do okay. But, again, those exotic bets can take a winning percentage and turn them into a negative bank account.
Here's the bottom line: if you want to win money, you need discipline. Decide what you can afford to lose. Set an amount you want to bet per game and stick to it. That's the best way to give yourself a chance to win money. Again, Period!
I am a firm believer that if you are a serious sports gambler, the only way you have a chance to beat the system and win money over the long haul is by figuring out what you can afford to lose. After you've made that determination, then you have to wager the same amount, based on what you can afford to lose, on every one of your plays.
I've made 87 recommendations for my people this year. If one of my people decided all they can afford to lose on my plays is $10.00 per bet, they would have won $490.00 on my winners, and lost $418.00 on my losers, for a profit of $72.00.
If one of my people decided they could afford to lose $50.00 for each of my plays, and invested that much in each of my plays, they would have won $2450.00. They would have lost $2090.00 on my losers. That's a profit of $360.00.
If one of my people decided they could afford to lose $100.00 for each of my plays, and invested that much in each of my plays, they would have won $4900.00. They would have lost $4180.00 on my losers. That's a profit of $720.00!
Do you see where I'm going with this? 49-38 is a good record. Period!
Here's the problem. I can't control what gamblers do with my picks. Some guys fluctuate what they bet per game. They might get lucky and win the plays they bet more on. But, what if they lose those inflated bets? They've opened the door to losing money, despite a very good winning percentage.
Other guys take my picks and use them in parlays and reverses and if bets. If they get lucky and win those fancy bets, yeah, they'll do okay. But, again, those exotic bets can take a winning percentage and turn them into a negative bank account.
Here's the bottom line: if you want to win money, you need discipline. Decide what you can afford to lose. Set an amount you want to bet per game and stick to it. That's the best way to give yourself a chance to win money. Again, Period!
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