Adjusted the ratings and did all the statistical work on San Diego State/ Air Force game scheduled for Thursday night.
The most impressive part of the Aztec team to date is their pretty impressive rush attack. Against competition similar to their own talent, SDSU has run for 5 yards per carry or more, including impressive efforts by Muema, who gained 1440 yards in 2012, and Pumphrey, who has gained over 100 yards on the ground. The rush defense for SDSU hasn't been that bad either. Since Ohio St. loss, the Aztec D hasn't allowed more than 3.1 yards per carry in games against Oregon St., NMSU, and Nevada. Not bad.
Air Force stats to date have shown no aspect of the offense or defense that stands out. Even the vaunted Falcon option offense has been inconsistent this year. They gained 346 and 375 on the ground in losses to Boise St and Nevada, respectively, but, gained less than 200 yards on the ground vs. Utah St and Boise St. and barely cracked the 2-century mark against Navy. You can probably attribute this inconsistent effort to injuries and a key suspension at the QB position.
We completed the updated College Edge ratings on San Diego St. and Air Force and I'll be releasing a selection on this game sometime tomorrow(Wednesday).
Tuesday, October 8, 2013
#HandicappingSeminar: #Rutgers/#Louisville, #THEPICK
I did the ratings for each team in the Rutgers - Louisville contest. Most of you would probably assume the Cardinals are the higher rated team. You would be right. I will approach this final decision in the old fashioned way: I will answer some key questions and come to a conclusion.
Will Rutgers run the ball on Louisville? The Knights may have some success vs. the Cardinals run D, but, a key stat for me is the rushing yardage Rutgers had vs. Arkansas. They only gained 54 yards rushing in that game. Rutgers will have only limited success running the ball
Will Rutgers pass the ball on Louisville? Again, vs. the toughest defensive team on the schedule(Arkansas), Rutgers threw for only 51%. They will have some success passing vs. Louisville, but, not enough to keep up.
Will Louisville run the ball on Rutgers? They will run enough on Rutgers to make the passing attack more effective. Rutgers had some big losses on defense from 2012. They haven't faced any team that could take advantage of those deficiencies, on the ground. Louisville will take advantage of those deficiencies.
Will Louisville pass the ball on Rutgers? Scarlet Knights gave up 450+ yards passing to Fresno St. and SMU. Louisville WILL pass the ball on the young Knight secondary.
Incentive Advantage: As mentioned earlier, this is one of Louisville's only challenging games this year. Charlie Strong will have his team ready to play. Rutgers just came off a sapping 3 OT win over SMU. Give the intangible advantage to Louisville
THE PICK VS. THE SPREAD: As my credibilty spreads, I totally expect this line to jump up as soon as I release it: TAKE THE LOUISVILLE CARDINALS. Get it in early. That line should go up
Will Rutgers run the ball on Louisville? The Knights may have some success vs. the Cardinals run D, but, a key stat for me is the rushing yardage Rutgers had vs. Arkansas. They only gained 54 yards rushing in that game. Rutgers will have only limited success running the ball
Will Rutgers pass the ball on Louisville? Again, vs. the toughest defensive team on the schedule(Arkansas), Rutgers threw for only 51%. They will have some success passing vs. Louisville, but, not enough to keep up.
Will Louisville run the ball on Rutgers? They will run enough on Rutgers to make the passing attack more effective. Rutgers had some big losses on defense from 2012. They haven't faced any team that could take advantage of those deficiencies, on the ground. Louisville will take advantage of those deficiencies.
Will Louisville pass the ball on Rutgers? Scarlet Knights gave up 450+ yards passing to Fresno St. and SMU. Louisville WILL pass the ball on the young Knight secondary.
Incentive Advantage: As mentioned earlier, this is one of Louisville's only challenging games this year. Charlie Strong will have his team ready to play. Rutgers just came off a sapping 3 OT win over SMU. Give the intangible advantage to Louisville
THE PICK VS. THE SPREAD: As my credibilty spreads, I totally expect this line to jump up as soon as I release it: TAKE THE LOUISVILLE CARDINALS. Get it in early. That line should go up
Monday, October 7, 2013
#HandicappingSeminar Part 2:#Rutgers/#Louisville
Just did the stats on the Rutgers - SMU game and most influential stat is RB Goodwin's 149 yards rushing in the game. RB James was hurt for the game and he was having a very good year. Goodwin steps right in and puts up great numbers as well. The other impressive stat is 74 yards rushing given up by the Scarlet Knights defense. In every game they've played this year, Rutgers has given up 100 yards, or less, rushing. Not bad. The passing defense for the visiting team this Thursday night has not been as good, and that could be very costly against Heisman candidate Teddy Bridgewater.
Some of the questions I might ask while handicapping the Rutgers side of Thursday's matchup: Will Rutgers stop Louisville's run attack??? Will Rutgers continue to find a RB to make major contributions against the tough Louisville defense???Will Rutgers QBs perform on Thursday night, in a very hostile environment?
Some of the questions I might ask while handicapping the Rutgers side of Thursday's matchup: Will Rutgers stop Louisville's run attack??? Will Rutgers continue to find a RB to make major contributions against the tough Louisville defense???Will Rutgers QBs perform on Thursday night, in a very hostile environment?
#HandicappingSeminar: #Rutgers vs. #Louisville: Part 1
I just did the stats on the Louisville/Temple game, and nothing stands out, except for the Rushing stats posted by the Cardinals' offense. They only gained 177 yards on the ground. I would probably attribute it to the teams probable lack of interest. I listened to a lot of the game, and it seemed Temple never showed enough of a threat to keep Louisville on its toes.
The real striking part of this early research is how weak the Louisville schedule is. This week's game vs. Rutgers and next week's game vs. UCF might actually be their toughest games this year. I like the Cardinals and their coach, Charlie Strong, but, their 2013 schedule is pathetic. Check the list of teams they've played so far: Ohio, E.Kentucky, Kentucky, FIU, and Temple. Are you kidding?
Two questions I'm asking about Thursday night: Will Louisville look at Thursday night's game as an opportunity to impress pollsters? Has the Cardinals pathetic early schedule left them unprepared for a fairly tough Rutgers team?
The real striking part of this early research is how weak the Louisville schedule is. This week's game vs. Rutgers and next week's game vs. UCF might actually be their toughest games this year. I like the Cardinals and their coach, Charlie Strong, but, their 2013 schedule is pathetic. Check the list of teams they've played so far: Ohio, E.Kentucky, Kentucky, FIU, and Temple. Are you kidding?
Two questions I'm asking about Thursday night: Will Louisville look at Thursday night's game as an opportunity to impress pollsters? Has the Cardinals pathetic early schedule left them unprepared for a fairly tough Rutgers team?
Saturday, October 5, 2013
#BYU - #UtahSt: Some Final( Handicapping) Thoughts
Last night I gave out #UtahState over the #BYU #Cougars. The pick was based on an Aggie team I thought could compete with almost any team in the country. They have a nice defense, led by an imposing linebacker corps, which includes 3, All-Conference returnees from 2012. #USU also has a formidable D-Line and experienced cornerbacks.
BUT, the most important part of the USU puzzle is quarterback Chuckie Keeton. His stats during an outstanding 2012 campaign included a TD/Int ratio of 27-9; a completion percentage of 68%; a per attempt completion average of 8.3 yards! Get this: he also rushed for 700 yards(4.8 yards per carry).
Add to all the info above USU's home field advantage, and a serious revenge motive(lost to BYU last two years), and the Aggie pick by yours truly was a strong one.
Then I heard the news as I was working on some of today's games: Chuckie Keeton was injured in the game, and, GULP, would probably not return.
Knowing USU had no experience behind Keeton, and also knowing no replacement could match Keeton's value, I also knew one other thing: my Utah St. pick was in dire trouble. I felt bad for Keeton, for his teammates, and their fans. The Aggies went from a very dangerous team to an also-ran in the MWC.
Adjusting to the new information, I texted my crew of people and tweeted a new plan of attack. Both BYU and Utah St would now be playing quarterbacks who were in their first year as starters and both QBs would be playing against good defenses.
I recommended an under the totals play for the second half. The totals number was 24'. Total points scored in the second half was 21!
It was one of my proudest picks of the year. Adjusting to the information at hand resulted in a win for me and my people.
Get well, Chuckie Keeton.
BUT, the most important part of the USU puzzle is quarterback Chuckie Keeton. His stats during an outstanding 2012 campaign included a TD/Int ratio of 27-9; a completion percentage of 68%; a per attempt completion average of 8.3 yards! Get this: he also rushed for 700 yards(4.8 yards per carry).
Add to all the info above USU's home field advantage, and a serious revenge motive(lost to BYU last two years), and the Aggie pick by yours truly was a strong one.
Then I heard the news as I was working on some of today's games: Chuckie Keeton was injured in the game, and, GULP, would probably not return.
Knowing USU had no experience behind Keeton, and also knowing no replacement could match Keeton's value, I also knew one other thing: my Utah St. pick was in dire trouble. I felt bad for Keeton, for his teammates, and their fans. The Aggies went from a very dangerous team to an also-ran in the MWC.
Adjusting to the new information, I texted my crew of people and tweeted a new plan of attack. Both BYU and Utah St would now be playing quarterbacks who were in their first year as starters and both QBs would be playing against good defenses.
I recommended an under the totals play for the second half. The totals number was 24'. Total points scored in the second half was 21!
It was one of my proudest picks of the year. Adjusting to the information at hand resulted in a win for me and my people.
Get well, Chuckie Keeton.
Friday, December 14, 2012
Here Is My Unique 2012-2013 College Bowl Offer!
The 2012-2013 College Football Bowl Offer is now available to you! Here's the catch: If I don't hit 54% of my approximate 50-60 bowl recommendations, you get $28.00 of the $30.00 fee returned. Period!
It's really that simple. If I don't produce, I don't get paid.
Those who were with me last year know what I'm capable of accomplishing. In 2011, from the point my clients signed up for the regular season offer, I went 46-17, which translates to an unheard of 73%! I followed up that unbelievable year with a work-man-like record of 71-55 this year(56.3%). For those of you who may try to minimize this winning percentage, check this out for proper perspective: if you were a $100.00 investor and stuck with that investment throughout the season with my picks, you would've won $1050.00! This isn't bullcrap. Just the facts.
To sign up, simply glance over to your right. You'll see my bowl offer available to you right now. Click the proper link, and my trusted PayPal account will make you a part of my exciting bowl season.
I'll text my picks, and e-mail them as well, when necessary. The first three games are complimentary. You'll need to sign up by December 22nd to get the games scheduled for that date.
I have already given out the over in the Nevada-Arizona as my first official bowl selection. Tonight, I am giving out Nevada and Utah St. as my remaining selections for this opening of the bowl season. Look to www.twitter.com/edgysam for my BYU - SDSU selection(s).
It's really that simple. If I don't produce, I don't get paid.
Those who were with me last year know what I'm capable of accomplishing. In 2011, from the point my clients signed up for the regular season offer, I went 46-17, which translates to an unheard of 73%! I followed up that unbelievable year with a work-man-like record of 71-55 this year(56.3%). For those of you who may try to minimize this winning percentage, check this out for proper perspective: if you were a $100.00 investor and stuck with that investment throughout the season with my picks, you would've won $1050.00! This isn't bullcrap. Just the facts.
To sign up, simply glance over to your right. You'll see my bowl offer available to you right now. Click the proper link, and my trusted PayPal account will make you a part of my exciting bowl season.
I'll text my picks, and e-mail them as well, when necessary. The first three games are complimentary. You'll need to sign up by December 22nd to get the games scheduled for that date.
I have already given out the over in the Nevada-Arizona as my first official bowl selection. Tonight, I am giving out Nevada and Utah St. as my remaining selections for this opening of the bowl season. Look to www.twitter.com/edgysam for my BYU - SDSU selection(s).
Monday, December 10, 2012
LET ME PICK YOUR 2012 COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL POOL!
I've had four requests so far from friends and family that I help pick their College Football Bowl Pools. It gave me the idea of offering to do the same for anyone who might be interested, and here is how it works:
Sign up for the $8.00 offer over at the right of my blog address(it's the weekend horse racing offer). By doing so, I'll pick your 2012-2013 College Football Bowl Pool(you'll have to let me know if it's picking straight winners, or, against the spread). I'll e-mail you the selections.
The picks I make for you are simply my first impressions of these games and NOT MY FINAL OPINIONS. Lots of times over the years, I've had opinions on games when matchups were first announced that change once I've handicapped those same games later in the bowl season.
I repeat: the picks I make on these bowl pools are simply my first impressions on the bowl matchups, not my final opinion.
Nevertheless, I eat, drink and sleep college football from early July to early January. Where you may not even know the difference between Utah St. and Rice, I have a working knowledge of those two teams, and every team that's involved in this year's 35 bowl games.
I assume most pools need to be turned in by Friday, so, I've set a deadline of midnight Thursday evening for anyone who might be interested. Sign up now and have a chance to be the star of you Bowl Pool!
FRIDAY MORNING I ANNOUNCE MY 2012-2013 COLLEGE BOWL OFFER!
Sign up for the $8.00 offer over at the right of my blog address(it's the weekend horse racing offer). By doing so, I'll pick your 2012-2013 College Football Bowl Pool(you'll have to let me know if it's picking straight winners, or, against the spread). I'll e-mail you the selections.
The picks I make for you are simply my first impressions of these games and NOT MY FINAL OPINIONS. Lots of times over the years, I've had opinions on games when matchups were first announced that change once I've handicapped those same games later in the bowl season.
I repeat: the picks I make on these bowl pools are simply my first impressions on the bowl matchups, not my final opinion.
Nevertheless, I eat, drink and sleep college football from early July to early January. Where you may not even know the difference between Utah St. and Rice, I have a working knowledge of those two teams, and every team that's involved in this year's 35 bowl games.
I assume most pools need to be turned in by Friday, so, I've set a deadline of midnight Thursday evening for anyone who might be interested. Sign up now and have a chance to be the star of you Bowl Pool!
FRIDAY MORNING I ANNOUNCE MY 2012-2013 COLLEGE BOWL OFFER!
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