#HandicappingSeminar: UCF over Marshall, A Win

The College Edge pick of UCF over Marshall was my most confident pick of the day. UCF is one of the traditional top teams in the CUSA. They were also rated considerably higher than Marshall according to my College Edge team ratings, and, still, the line on the game was dropping( I got the line at UCF -1). I love it when the public is against me, as they were in this contest.
I really like Marshall this year, and I've been really impressed with the play of Thundering Herd QB Cato.BUT, the public is easily taken by a team that is playing well, particularly a team that isn't used to playing that way.
The reality was Marshall was playing a team in UCF that has a great coach in O'Leary,a very good nucleus of returning starters from the 2011 squad( 15 returnees), and a proven pedigree. My confident pick turned into an easy win as UCF dominated in a 54-17 win.

#HandicappingSeminar:OSU-PSU under, A Loss

In our only loss of the day, we gave out the under in the OSU-PSU, Ineligibl Bowl. Call me a non-believer in QB McGloin of PSU. I just didn't think the Nits QB would move the ball successfully against an Ohio St. team that, admittedly hasn't played that well on defense this year, but, still, has 9 starters back from the 2011 team.
On Ohio St.'s offensive side of the ball, my hope was QB Miller, coming off a mild concussion in the Purdue game, would helm a conservative game plan that would keep hits to his body at a rarity. I was wrong. Miller played a great game, and, threw our under play into diarray. It resulted in our only losing pick of the day.

#HandicappingSeminar:UCLA over ASU, A Win

I picked UCLA over ASU for one major reason: yours truly, edgysam, had the Bruins rated higher than the Sun Devils under my College Edge team ratings, and those same Bruins came into the game as an underdog! I'm not absolutely married to that type of situation, but, it takes a lot to convince me to go against it. Admittedly, I was fearful that ASU was home, that they were getting good play from the quarterback position, and despite the fact I don't personally like coach Graham, the home team had a darn good coach at the helm.
In the end that wasn't enough to deter me from the Bruins pick. Despite an early 0-14 deficit, and the feeling of impending (football) doom, the Bruins got fantastic games from QB Hundley and RB Franklin, and the College Edge got the cover!

#HandicappingSeminar: N.Caro.over NCSU, A Win

North Carolina was the College Edge pick over North Carolina State in the last of our early Saturday plays. I picked the Tar Heels for a couple of major reasons: I had them rated higher than the Wolfpack under my College Edge team ratings, and I believed the Heels would be motivated to play hard following their embarrassing loss to in-state rival, Duke, the previous week.
In picking N.C., I was going against one of my favorite coaches, Tom O'Brien, who just so happens to be one of the best coaches in the FBS as a road underdog.
My fears were justified. NCSU played a very good game on the road, and, there is no way I deserved to get the cover in this ACC matchup. N.C. scored on a punt return with 13 seconds left, and, then, muffed the extra point snap, but, the holder picked up the loose football and threw a 2-point play in desperation!
Was I lucky? Yes. Am I apologetic? Definitely not. I don't cry when I lose these type of games(okay, maybe I cry for a little while), and my happiness is always tempered by the fact luck can change in an instant!

#HandicappingSeminar: Ky-Missouri Under, A Win

Edgysam gave out the under in the Kentucky - Missouri contest primarily because of the inexperience at the quarterback position for both the Wildcats and Tigers. Each team's starting QB was injured and not scheduled to play. The Kentucky injury was not that influential in my thinking, but, the injury to QB Franklin of Missou was very important in almost sealing the deal for the under pick. The junior starter is a threat as both a runner and passer, and had a very good year in 2011. Injuries to contributing running backs for both teams absolutely clinched the deal for the under pick.
A turnover for a TD put the under in doubt, but, woeful passing stats for both teams( Kentucky threw for 78 yards in the game, Missouri for 87) helped the College Edge, and our cleeps, get an under cover.

#HandicappingSeminar:Tenn-S.Caro. under, A Win

The College Edge gave out the over in the Tennessee-South Carolina game, and the decision was based mostly on the Vols' stats. They scored 44, 20 and 35 points, respectively, against good defenses like Georgia, Florida and N.C.St. Conversely, the Vol defense has been pretty bad this year, playing well against neither the run or the pass.
Luckily, this game had 42 points scored by halftime, and was put easily into the win column.

#HandicappingSeminar: Cincy vs. Louisville, A Push

Louisville's pick was hugely based on the College Edge ratings. The Cardinals' edge in returning starters, experienced quarterback( Bridgewater over Legaux) and home field, on a Thursday night, featured ESPN game, gave the Charlie Strong-coached team a decided edge in the eyes of edgysam. The fact Cincy played an unbelievably easy schedule prior to the Louisville game - Delaware St., Miami,Oh, Fordham, Toledo- led me to believe the Bearcats were not ready to play a team that was superior to them and, on top of that was more battle-tested. I was wrong.
Cincy played a tough game( Bearcats outgained their Big East opponent on the ground by 196 to 108), and had every right to win the game. I was very lucky to get a push in the game, and was grateful I decided, before the season started, I would buy a 1/2 point when the spread is near important numbers like 3, 7, 10, etc. My game-time line was -3.5 points.
Oh, yeah, by the way, my power did go down for 16 hours.