#HandicappingSeminar: Nevada-AirForce, A Losing Pick

In the Nevada-Air Force game,  I had the Wolfpack rated higher than the Falcons, and the stats seemed to back up my ratings. Nevada's offensive stats were sterling going into the MWC matchup, and I didn't envision any way Air Force's inexperienced defense could stop coach Chris Ault's vaunted Pistol offense. Hey, on top of that QB Fajardo was returning from an injury. Man, was I wrong!
I got my butt kicked because the Falcons' own vaunted offense, the legendary, service academy option, destroyed Nevada's defense when they gained over 475 yards on the ground, on 82 carries, and, get this, an un-service academy-like, 139 yards in the air.That's over 600 yards of total offense.
A lesson re-learned: never under estimate the ability of a service academy to rip to shreds a defense that doesn't know how to defend the option.
I wish I would've won my Nevada pick, but, I never cease to be proud when the service academy teams kick butt. I love the service academy teams!

#HandicappingSeminar: ArkSt-La.: Losing Pick

I gave out Louisiana, Lafayette over Arkansas St. in my first pick of the week. Since I'm fairly new to the Sun Belt Conference, my College Edge team ratings carry on even more importance. In this contest, I had La. rated higher than Ark.St. by a considerable amount in their in-conference game. In the stats I had updated on both teams, La. had played much better, according to the stats, corroborating their status as the higher rated team. My pick seemed to be pretty justified, but, the result was quite different. My La. pick went down in flames.
One of my major takes on the game wasn't so much that I lost what I thought was a pretty solid pick. That happens all the time. What I will be more aware of, in terms of Ark.St, is how well new coach Gus Malzahn performs in his new role as a head coach. He was innovative as an Offensive Coordinator(Auburn's O-Coor during championship year), and that may carry over to his new role. Malzahn may be a head coach worth investing in in the future. Come to think of it, this Ark.St loss may have been productive for me than I thought. You never have enough great college football coaches!

#Clemson - #WakeForest Decision

Here was the decision I was confronted with in this game. Do I go with the history of Wake coach Jim Grobe, who was a sensational 18-9 in home dog situations, or go with the present reality of a Clemson offense that had stars at every offensive category, and has shown it can score proficiently.
Despite an often poor defense, I just didn't think Wake could keep up with Tiger scoring machine. They couldn't.

#CollegeEdge Picks in La.- No.Texas Game

Overwhelming amount of returning starters on both teams return to the offensive sides of the ball. Most impressive are the 8 offensive linemen that return as starters from the La. and North Texas. Each defense, on the other hand returns only 4 and 5 starters, respectively, from the '11 teams.
Over the total was my recommendation to my cleeps.
My respect for North Texas coach Dan McCarney, formerly of ISU, makes for a slight lean to North Texas. No recommendation for my cleeps, but, a small lean to the Mean Green.

#CollegeEdge Works for The #Cleeps: Navy vs. C.Mich

Central Michigan and the over in the same game are the initial picks for my 2012 cleeps! Can I top my 46-17,  2011 record?
Do you know why I couldn't wait for this game? Other than the fact I look forward to every college football game, I love watching option football, and how it's run so well by the service academies.

#TheCollegeEdge 2012 #CollegeFootballOffer

My brother did another great job getting the 2012 College Football Offer posted at collegeedge.blogspot.com, and I'm proud to announce it now!
The College Edge is offering all weekday and weeknight recommendations through the end of the FBS regular season( includes my second favorite college football day of the year, Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving); all games that are played on Saturdays, through the end of the regular season, and that have start times between 12:00p.m. - 6:00p.m., will continue to be complimentary; all games that are played on Saturdays, through the end of the regular season, that have start times between 6:01p.m., or later, will now be included in our offer; if a game is played on Sundays during balance of regular season, it will be included in our offer.

Yo, Floyd Mayweather, believe it or not, after an unbelievable 2011 record of 46-17 for my valued customers, the College Edge College Football Offer for the balance of the FBS season: only $40.00 (for an additional $10.00, you'll get Greg's and Rich's MLB Playoffs and NFL regular season picks)!!! If you take a look over at the side of this article, you'll see you can sign up right now by credit card through PayPal.

I thought it might be a good idea to let you know what I've done to prepare myself for what I hope is another great year for what I proudly call my "cleeps"( clients).

My work started around July 1st, when I received my college football magazines. As I have done for at least the last 30+ years, I bought my 200 page, bindered notebook, and proceeded to spend the summer working the College Edge team ratings on nearly all Division 1, FBS teams(approximately 115). I average about 40 minutes per team, and these are the categories of each team I list, and put a point value on: coaching staff, returning starters, quarterback, offensive line, running backs, receivers, defensive line, linebackers, defensive backs, corner backs, lettermen, special teams. I put my own point value on each of these categories, and after factoring in things like home or away, records against the spread, conference records, etc., the College Edge comes up with the most important part of the handicapping experience: the College Edge Team Ratings!

What you have just read is what I do prior to the season starting. Those team ratings change almost weekly during the season. They do so because from the first week I log each team's stats, handwritten in my 200 page notebook( oh yeah, in recent years I've added a 100 page Temple notebook as well). I also check daily the injury reports for all of the FBS teams. If a team's rushing stats don't meet expectations, for example, the ratings are adjusted; if a team has any significant injury, the ratings are adjusted. Each week will probably bring some adjustment to every team's rating. It is truly a weekly challenge.

All this prepares me for the most important aspect of handicapping: putting myself in the best position to give out good recommendations. I can't guarantee winners, but, I do promise I'll do everything in my power to pick winners. I hope you'll consider joining our College Edge College Football Offer.

E-mail: sam@college-edge.com
Phone: 267-752-3343(EDGE)

I plan to give out my picks by text, e-mail, and phone. If you can recommend another way of giving out the recommendations, let me know. Thank You. Sam

#CollegeEdge Recommendations: Utah St vs. BYU

Utah St gave up less than 3.5 yards per carry to both Utah and Wisconsin. With BYU's leading rusher from '11 out ( M. Alisa), and the Cougars starting a freshman at QB, I believe the Aggies can continue to play the tough defense they've played to date. USU decent on offense, but, BYU plays good, consistent defense.
Consequently, UNDER THE TOTALS IS THE RECOMMENDATION.

USU has the better QB in Keeton vs. Hill; they may have the slightly better running game; BYU has the better defense, but, USU has shown they are not intimidated by these bigger programs, and I don't believe BYU has the diversity in offense to cause the Aggies a lot of defensive problems. Believe it, or, not, USU seems like the obvious pick, but, sometimes the obvious pick is the right pick.
Utah St. Aggies is the recommendation, and yes, if line is +6.5, I would buy the .5 point.