I have a feel that Pitt has the better team, but, I have the Orange rated higher under my College Edge team ratings, so, I will let a side go in the game.
Pitt has experience and talent at every offensive position, including a possible 2 running backs who can gain 1000 yards this year. Syracuse has given up 42 points to both Northwestern and USC.
I don't think Piit's defense is that strong and Syracuse has shown they can score with the experience at QB in Ryan Nassib.
The recommendation: Over the totals in the Pitt/Syracuse contest.
Friday, October 5, 2012
Anatomy of a Handicapped Game,Ark.St - FIU: The Result
I had FIU rated a lot higher than Arkansas St. When I have a team rated a lot higher than another team, and that team comes into a game as an underdog, and then that team LOSES, I still, after all these years, am amazed. It forces you to look at the stats from the game right away and try to understand why you were so wrong. I did that with last night's game.
It turns out the stats in the game were pretty similar for both teams. ArkSt gained 198 yards on the ground, FIU, 188. ASU gained 223 yards in the air(65%), FIU gained 153 yards in the air(61%). As is usually the case, when the stats don't match the score, the next place to look is in the turnover department. This is where FIU probably cost itself( and edgySam) any chance to win and cover.
The Golden Panthers gave up two interceptions which led directly to ASU touchdowns. The Red Wolves had no turnovers in the game!
I will write here that my biggest fear in the game was experience at the QB position(senior starter)for ASU, and inexperience at the QB position(freshman starter) for FIU. My fears appeared to be justified. For the record: I accepted the inexperience of freshman QB Hilliard, but, still concluded that the rest of the team was so much stronger than their opponent, that a recommendation would still be in order. I WAS WRONG!
I guess it helped confirm my belief that, other than the head coach, the most important position on the field is the quarterback.
It turns out the stats in the game were pretty similar for both teams. ArkSt gained 198 yards on the ground, FIU, 188. ASU gained 223 yards in the air(65%), FIU gained 153 yards in the air(61%). As is usually the case, when the stats don't match the score, the next place to look is in the turnover department. This is where FIU probably cost itself( and edgySam) any chance to win and cover.
The Golden Panthers gave up two interceptions which led directly to ASU touchdowns. The Red Wolves had no turnovers in the game!
I will write here that my biggest fear in the game was experience at the QB position(senior starter)for ASU, and inexperience at the QB position(freshman starter) for FIU. My fears appeared to be justified. For the record: I accepted the inexperience of freshman QB Hilliard, but, still concluded that the rest of the team was so much stronger than their opponent, that a recommendation would still be in order. I WAS WRONG!
I guess it helped confirm my belief that, other than the head coach, the most important position on the field is the quarterback.
Thursday, October 4, 2012
East Carolina vs. UCF: The Recommendation
UCF is the higher rated team by a good margin under my College Edge ratings...UCF is a home favorite, and coach O'Leary has been very good in that role since he's been at UCF(18-10)...UCF is also outstanding under coach O'Leary vs. conference teams( 39-27)... it also doesn't hurt that UCF is coming off a loss to Missouri and are in a revenge situation, having lost to E.C. last year...Yo, and the line's dropping...
The Recommendation: UCF Knights
The Recommendation: UCF Knights
Anatomy of a Handicapped Game, Ark.St-FIU: The Recommendation
FIU has the theoretically, much better defense...they have had time to adjust to the fact a freshman, albeit fairly talented one, is starting at QB...they have a 1100 yard-rusher from last year to control the clock and running game...Ark.St has a decent QB, but, a defense that should be extremely porous, considering the lack of experience on that side of the ball.
I got burned on Buffalo when I went with the higher rated underdog a couple of weeks back. I expect to get my payback tonight, as once again I go with the higher rated team that's home, coming into this game as the underdog.
The well coached FIU Golden Panthers are tonight's Sun Belt recommendation!
I got burned on Buffalo when I went with the higher rated underdog a couple of weeks back. I expect to get my payback tonight, as once again I go with the higher rated team that's home, coming into this game as the underdog.
The well coached FIU Golden Panthers are tonight's Sun Belt recommendation!
Anatomy of a Handicapped Game, Ark.St vs. FIU: Part III
Arkansas St.: This is what I think of the RedWolves after updating their stats, injury reports and conference record. They have a good quarterback, decent rushers, decent o-linemen, and an above average( for the Sun Belt) receiving corps.
By everything I've researched, their tremendous losses on defense should lead to a sub-par unit on that side of the ball.
The x-factor is head coach Gus Malzahn. It's his first year as a head coach. So, do I rate him as such, or, do I give him extra points for being an offensive innovator?
FIU: I think FIU should be able to run the ball tonight against a porous defense, but, I think the pass offense should be a little restricted since a freshman is starting tonight at QB. O-line should be above average(for a Sun Belt team) and they do have a serviceable receiving unit.
Theoretically, with all of the Golden Panther starters returning from last year's team, the defense should be the strength of the team. BUT, that loss 48-20 loss to La. is a pretty scary score and will keep me in thought a little longer than I might otherwise be. Why?
I completed my College Edge ratings on both Ark.St and FIU, and I have FIU as the higher rated team by a considerable margin. FIU is the surprising underdog, even though they are home, and the line keeps moving in Ark.St's direction.
There will be a recommendation on this game. Look for that pick at 7:00p.m.!
By everything I've researched, their tremendous losses on defense should lead to a sub-par unit on that side of the ball.
The x-factor is head coach Gus Malzahn. It's his first year as a head coach. So, do I rate him as such, or, do I give him extra points for being an offensive innovator?
FIU: I think FIU should be able to run the ball tonight against a porous defense, but, I think the pass offense should be a little restricted since a freshman is starting tonight at QB. O-line should be above average(for a Sun Belt team) and they do have a serviceable receiving unit.
Theoretically, with all of the Golden Panther starters returning from last year's team, the defense should be the strength of the team. BUT, that loss 48-20 loss to La. is a pretty scary score and will keep me in thought a little longer than I might otherwise be. Why?
I completed my College Edge ratings on both Ark.St and FIU, and I have FIU as the higher rated team by a considerable margin. FIU is the surprising underdog, even though they are home, and the line keeps moving in Ark.St's direction.
There will be a recommendation on this game. Look for that pick at 7:00p.m.!
Anatomy of a Handicapped Game, ArkSt vs. FIU: Part II
In contrast to the new coach, Malzahn, of Ark.St, coach Mario Cristobal of FIU has the supposed experience edge. He's in his 6th year with the Golden Panthers.
My early impressions of FIU's team: offense in flux, defense should be strong.
The team looked relatively strong on offense with experience at every spot on that side of the ball, including 1200 yard-rusher Kedrick Rhodes. Here's the problem: designated starter at QB, Jake Medlock, is hurt. Now, Medlock isn't a returning starter from the '11 team, and he's only a sophomore, so he shouldn't be that hard to replace. His replacement is a freshman( EJ Hilliard), so that will be a big factor when I make my final decision tomorrow.
FIU has a large amount of starters back on defense(9.8), and the good point is last year's Panther defense, with most of these same players, was a very good one. Here is my challenge. FIU is 1-4 going into this game, which is okay since they did play UCF, Louisville, and Duke. The game that is making this whole endeavor challenging is their loss to Louisiana by the surprising score of 48-20! That's a pretty good butt-kicking, and that game will force me to take a more concentrated look at FIU's chances in this Sun Belt matchup.
Tomorrow, I add up the value of each team's positions, factor in conference and home records, and reveal which team has the higher College Edge team rating. I believe FIU will be rated higher, but, at this point, I have no idea if I'm right. I'm looking forward to the answer.
My early impressions of FIU's team: offense in flux, defense should be strong.
The team looked relatively strong on offense with experience at every spot on that side of the ball, including 1200 yard-rusher Kedrick Rhodes. Here's the problem: designated starter at QB, Jake Medlock, is hurt. Now, Medlock isn't a returning starter from the '11 team, and he's only a sophomore, so he shouldn't be that hard to replace. His replacement is a freshman( EJ Hilliard), so that will be a big factor when I make my final decision tomorrow.
FIU has a large amount of starters back on defense(9.8), and the good point is last year's Panther defense, with most of these same players, was a very good one. Here is my challenge. FIU is 1-4 going into this game, which is okay since they did play UCF, Louisville, and Duke. The game that is making this whole endeavor challenging is their loss to Louisiana by the surprising score of 48-20! That's a pretty good butt-kicking, and that game will force me to take a more concentrated look at FIU's chances in this Sun Belt matchup.
Tomorrow, I add up the value of each team's positions, factor in conference and home records, and reveal which team has the higher College Edge team rating. I believe FIU will be rated higher, but, at this point, I have no idea if I'm right. I'm looking forward to the answer.
Wednesday, October 3, 2012
Anatomy of a Handicapped Game, Ark.St.vs FIU: Part I
Did you know the new coach of the Arkansas St. Red Wolves is Gus Malzahn? He's made his rep as an innovative offensive coordinator, who, it just so happens, was the OC for Cam Newton and the National Titlists of 2010, the Auburn Tigers. He's put a nice coaching staff together, but, he's never been a coach at a major college program. We'll see how he responds to the new position.
Just finished my evaluations of each position on the ArkSt team, and updated the stats for their first four games. My early impressions of this Sun Belt representative are: good offense, porous defense.
Wolves have QB Aplin back from last year's squad(1st team SBC QB), a decent O-line, serviceable running backs( although new RB Oku, completely unknown to me, has had some good games), above average receivers, and, theoretically, a well conceived offensive attack.
It's their defense that will probably have a great affect on my thinking for tomorrow night's contest vs. FIU. They've lost 6 all-SBC defenders from last year's highly rated defense. Included in those losses are both cornerbacks(!), SBC defensive Player of the Year Brandon Joiner ( 13 sacks in '11!!!), and 3rd round draft choice, and #1 tackler from last year's team, LB Demario Davis. Those are gigantic, humongous, losses.
I'll do my ratings of the Red Wolves later, but, I have a feeling I'm looking at a team that will score some points tomorrow night, but, will also give up a mess-load of points as well.
Next on the agenda: early impressions of the FIU Golden Panthers!
Just finished my evaluations of each position on the ArkSt team, and updated the stats for their first four games. My early impressions of this Sun Belt representative are: good offense, porous defense.
Wolves have QB Aplin back from last year's squad(1st team SBC QB), a decent O-line, serviceable running backs( although new RB Oku, completely unknown to me, has had some good games), above average receivers, and, theoretically, a well conceived offensive attack.
It's their defense that will probably have a great affect on my thinking for tomorrow night's contest vs. FIU. They've lost 6 all-SBC defenders from last year's highly rated defense. Included in those losses are both cornerbacks(!), SBC defensive Player of the Year Brandon Joiner ( 13 sacks in '11!!!), and 3rd round draft choice, and #1 tackler from last year's team, LB Demario Davis. Those are gigantic, humongous, losses.
I'll do my ratings of the Red Wolves later, but, I have a feeling I'm looking at a team that will score some points tomorrow night, but, will also give up a mess-load of points as well.
Next on the agenda: early impressions of the FIU Golden Panthers!
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