Why did the Arizona St. line move from -2 to -6? The Wildcats have a new, freshman QB, they lost an all-Pac10 center from the '11 team, and despite the return of a 1000 yard-rusher, they have less than 1 starter back in the receiving corps.
A poor SunDevil, 2011 defense returns only 4 starters, and I don't consider any of those 4 returnees above average at their respective positions.
Illinois has an experienced QB in Scheelhause, and the much better defense.
My ratings tell me the wrong team is favored.
Illinois is the last pick of what has been a pretty good handicapping day!!!!
Saturday, September 8, 2012
#WhataDay: First, it's Georgia vs. Missouri
Despite the suspensions, the Bulldogs still have a great QB in Murray, an emerging star at RB Marshall, and a nice receiving corps. They still have a tremendous interior defense, with a returning Lb in Jones who had an incredible 13.5 sacks in '11!
Missouri is missing important players, too, including 1500 yard-rusher, Henry Josey., and two offensive linemen.
And, let's not forget the Bulldogs represent the SEC. That's worth points by itself.(Also, coach Richt good as a road favorite.
Georgia's the pick, and, here's hoping the Tigers get their hides handed to them tonight.
Missouri is missing important players, too, including 1500 yard-rusher, Henry Josey., and two offensive linemen.
And, let's not forget the Bulldogs represent the SEC. That's worth points by itself.(Also, coach Richt good as a road favorite.
Georgia's the pick, and, here's hoping the Tigers get their hides handed to them tonight.
Friday, September 7, 2012
#CollegeEdge's Pick in Miami-KSU Contest
I have two of my favorite coaches going in this game. Al Golden, coach of Miami's Hurricanes, turned around my Temple Owls, and I will always be grateful to him for what many considered an impossible task. Coach Bill Snyder, probably my favorite college coach of all time, has led his KSU program from the absolute depths of college football. There might be an argument that Snyder turned around THE worst college football program into one of the better programs in the FBS.
With that as background, I am really looking forward to this 12:00 game tomorrow.
Miami had a surprisingly effective game last week vs. Boston College. I don't think they'll repeat that effort tomorrow at one of the toughest venues in which a visiting team has to play, Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, Kansas( no coach deserves to have a stadium named after him more).
KSU has a two-way threat at QB in Klein, a formidable running game, 3.5 starters back in the receiving corps and 7 starters back on defense.
Despite the Hurricane win last week, they are inexperienced at QB and at the rest of their offense, and, more importantly, I believe they are inexperienced on defense, which will be costly in that they are playing against a QB that can beat you with both his running(Klein gained 1440 yards rushing last year!) and passing.
The Kansas State Wildcats are the pick.
With that as background, I am really looking forward to this 12:00 game tomorrow.
Miami had a surprisingly effective game last week vs. Boston College. I don't think they'll repeat that effort tomorrow at one of the toughest venues in which a visiting team has to play, Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, Kansas( no coach deserves to have a stadium named after him more).
KSU has a two-way threat at QB in Klein, a formidable running game, 3.5 starters back in the receiving corps and 7 starters back on defense.
Despite the Hurricane win last week, they are inexperienced at QB and at the rest of their offense, and, more importantly, I believe they are inexperienced on defense, which will be costly in that they are playing against a QB that can beat you with both his running(Klein gained 1440 yards rushing last year!) and passing.
The Kansas State Wildcats are the pick.
#CollegeEdge Handicaps #N.C.St vs. #UConn
As I mention on many occasions, I try to do ratings on every FBS team. I start those rartings in early July. I estimate I spend about 40 minutes per team. Do the math, and you'll see I put in about 75 hours on my ratings leading up to the season.
Ratings are one of the key tools I use when I handicap a game.
In tomorrow's contest between N.C.St and Connecticut, my ratings on each team are a big factor in my selection. UConn is the higher rated team , according to my rating system, and as an extra bonus, they are at home as an underdog.
If UConn wins tomorrow it will have to be with a solid running game, which they can accomplish with 1000 yard-rusher McCoombs, minimal mistakes from young QB Whitmer, and a tough defense, which they are capable of playing with 8+ returning starters on defense.
Other factors I hope are in my favor are the facts coach O'Brien is very good as a coach "against the spread," but, not so as an away favorite. He's rarely put in that role, and when he has been at N.C.St, he's 0-4 in that spot. Conversely, coach Pasqualoni of UConn, in his previous coaching role at Syracuse, was one of the top spread coaches of his time. In his second year at UConn, I'm hoping, and expecting, similar spread results.
I'm taking the higher rated team, and the squad that comes into this game as a home underdog: the UConn Huskies!
Ratings are one of the key tools I use when I handicap a game.
In tomorrow's contest between N.C.St and Connecticut, my ratings on each team are a big factor in my selection. UConn is the higher rated team , according to my rating system, and as an extra bonus, they are at home as an underdog.
If UConn wins tomorrow it will have to be with a solid running game, which they can accomplish with 1000 yard-rusher McCoombs, minimal mistakes from young QB Whitmer, and a tough defense, which they are capable of playing with 8+ returning starters on defense.
Other factors I hope are in my favor are the facts coach O'Brien is very good as a coach "against the spread," but, not so as an away favorite. He's rarely put in that role, and when he has been at N.C.St, he's 0-4 in that spot. Conversely, coach Pasqualoni of UConn, in his previous coaching role at Syracuse, was one of the top spread coaches of his time. In his second year at UConn, I'm hoping, and expecting, similar spread results.
I'm taking the higher rated team, and the squad that comes into this game as a home underdog: the UConn Huskies!
#CollegeEdge Picks #Utah-UtahSt. Contest
Utah has an experienced returning offense, with an experienced QB in Jordan Wynn to handle the pressures of a hostile road environment. USU lost over 2000 yards in rushing yards from last year(Turlin: 1517; Smith 870) and a #2 Draft Choice at the LB position. 1st team WAC LB Wagner had 147 tackles last year! Aggies are also without the other effective QB coach Anderson uses, Adam Kennedy. He's suspended and his loss will also be felt( he threw for 970 yards, 11 tds.and a 69% completion rate in '11, and is considered the more pure passer in contrast to the talented Keeton). I don't think a USU will overcome those losses when playing a talented team like Utah.
Utah's Utes are the pick.
For those interested, if Noon picks tomorrow aren't listed here later tonight, call 267-752-3343 at 11:45a.m., Saturday morning for my complimentary selections.
Utah's Utes are the pick.
For those interested, if Noon picks tomorrow aren't listed here later tonight, call 267-752-3343 at 11:45a.m., Saturday morning for my complimentary selections.
Thursday, September 6, 2012
#TheCollegeEdge: #Pitt vs.#Cincy Picks
Take the Pitt Panthers to cover over Cincy Bearcats: Since neither defense is that dominant, I'm taking the team with the much more experienced offense, the Panthers, led by running back, Ray Graham.
Take the over in the same game. These mediocre defenses will be scored upon.
Take the over in the same game. These mediocre defenses will be scored upon.
How the #CollegeEdge Approaches its Weekly Picks
Last year, the College Edge made a significant decision: no longer would yours truly try to work every stinking game on the schedule. In years past, I'd see how many games were on the schedule. If there were 35 games, I might eliminate five of those games to handicap. I would then attempt to handicap every one of those remaining games. God forbid I missed a game! By the Saturday night of each week, I'd be mentally and physically exhausted. I decided my approach to each new week of handicapped games had to change. This is how it happened.
In 2011, I decided I would give my total attention to each of the weeknight games that kick off each week of college football games. If there was a Wednesday night game scheduled, I worked it. If there were two Thursday night games scheduled, I worked them. If a Friday night ESPN game capped off the weeknight activity, I gave it my handicapping attention.
I would then try to finish all of the early games scheduled for the upcoming Saturday before going to sleep on Friday night. As most of you know, the Noon time slot on Saturdays is peppered with 5 to 7 scheduled games. My goal each week is to complete those games.
Then, my goal for the rest of college football Saturday is to attempt to work one game per hour. If games are scheduled at 1:00p.m.(an unusual start time), I try to work one of them; if games are scheduled at 2:00p.m., I try to work one of them; if a game is scheduled in the 3:00p.m. time slot, I try to work it. And so on it goes throughout a Saturday schedule. The key word in these previous sentences is "try." If I have the time to work those games, I do so. If I don't, the handicapping world does not come to an end like it did in previous years.
Lat year, I can recall Saturdays where 5 games may have scheduled for a particular time slot. I have ratings and stats ready for each of those games. What game do I choose to handicap? I'd simply put the games in a proverbial hat and randomly pick the game I'd work on. It was fun. It was relaxing. I didn't favor one game over another to work on. And, it worked.
I had the best year I ever had for my clients, going 46-17 during the regular season. I will approach each week's schedule this year in the same way.
In 2011, I decided I would give my total attention to each of the weeknight games that kick off each week of college football games. If there was a Wednesday night game scheduled, I worked it. If there were two Thursday night games scheduled, I worked them. If a Friday night ESPN game capped off the weeknight activity, I gave it my handicapping attention.
I would then try to finish all of the early games scheduled for the upcoming Saturday before going to sleep on Friday night. As most of you know, the Noon time slot on Saturdays is peppered with 5 to 7 scheduled games. My goal each week is to complete those games.
Then, my goal for the rest of college football Saturday is to attempt to work one game per hour. If games are scheduled at 1:00p.m.(an unusual start time), I try to work one of them; if games are scheduled at 2:00p.m., I try to work one of them; if a game is scheduled in the 3:00p.m. time slot, I try to work it. And so on it goes throughout a Saturday schedule. The key word in these previous sentences is "try." If I have the time to work those games, I do so. If I don't, the handicapping world does not come to an end like it did in previous years.
Lat year, I can recall Saturdays where 5 games may have scheduled for a particular time slot. I have ratings and stats ready for each of those games. What game do I choose to handicap? I'd simply put the games in a proverbial hat and randomly pick the game I'd work on. It was fun. It was relaxing. I didn't favor one game over another to work on. And, it worked.
I had the best year I ever had for my clients, going 46-17 during the regular season. I will approach each week's schedule this year in the same way.
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