The Air Force Academy lost a 4-yr. starter at QB(Tim Jefferson), an 1100 yard-rusher, and 3 starting offensive linemen. You know what: they will still have one of the nation's premier rush attacks, and high scoring offenses. The option offense they run will still be a well-oiled machine. It's run with great military discipline, and, is an offense rarely seen by Falcon opponents.
On the other hand, Air Force's defense will give up a lot of yards this year. Unlike the offense, where experience isn't always a necessary ingredient, returning starters are important for a service academy. They simply lack size and talent, and many times veteran leaders can make up for the talent gap. Well, this year's Falcon defense not only lacks size and skill, they also lack experience. Only 3 starters return from last year's defense,and that "D" gave up 220 yards-rushing, and a 62% completion rate last year.
The AirForce has a very good coach in Troy Calhoun. The sparseness of returning starters would almost certainly doom any other college program, but, what I've learned in the past from service academies is few returning starters does not always translate to a bad year in the win/loss column.
I will call for a team that will be involved in many high-scoring games and I'll be patient with the Falcons and see how they perform in early games vs. UNLV and Colorado St. I am prepared to be surprised by unexpected successes.
Tuesday, August 7, 2012
Monday, August 6, 2012
#TexasA&M #Aggies Evaluated by the 46-17 #CollegeEdge
I think Mike Sherman did a decent job at Texas A&M and thought he was unfairly fired from his job. Consequently, I want the Aggies to get their butts kicked when they play in the SEC. Of course, the bigger reason I look forward to their undoing is A&M left a very strong, traditional Big-12 to seek greener pastures(?) in the SEC. I will probably hate the Aggie program for years to come for deserting the league that was practically the SEC's equal last year.
I won't let that hatred cloud my judgement of A&M. I hope.
Inexperience at the QB position should lead to a difficult transitional year for A&M. They lose a #1 draft choice at that position( surprisingly, I don't think that's going to be a Giant loss. QB Tanneyhill did throw 15 interceptions), and plan to start a freshman. I just don't think the Aggies will get away with a fr.QB in the SEC. So, despite 4 offensive linemen back, and serviceable returnees at the talent positions, I don't foresee smooth offense for A&M.
Defensively, they lose 5 all-league performers from their '11 squad, including two-300 pound interior linemen who were the strength of last year's team. Some decent defenders return(LB Porter was a 1st team Big12 who had 9 sacks last year), but, losing 5 all-leaguers is a bad omen for a team entering the nation's best conference.
I think the coaching at A&M will be top notch, as Kevin Sumlin leaves one Texas school(Houston), for another. I just think a new coach normally has transitional problems in his first year at a new program. My hope is Sumlin has trouble this year, and for years to come. I want them to regret the day they decided to leave the Big12 for the SEC.
If A&M has trouble in their first game vs. an underrated LaTech team, oh boy will this be a bad year for them. I can only hope!
I won't let that hatred cloud my judgement of A&M. I hope.
Inexperience at the QB position should lead to a difficult transitional year for A&M. They lose a #1 draft choice at that position( surprisingly, I don't think that's going to be a Giant loss. QB Tanneyhill did throw 15 interceptions), and plan to start a freshman. I just don't think the Aggies will get away with a fr.QB in the SEC. So, despite 4 offensive linemen back, and serviceable returnees at the talent positions, I don't foresee smooth offense for A&M.
Defensively, they lose 5 all-league performers from their '11 squad, including two-300 pound interior linemen who were the strength of last year's team. Some decent defenders return(LB Porter was a 1st team Big12 who had 9 sacks last year), but, losing 5 all-leaguers is a bad omen for a team entering the nation's best conference.
I think the coaching at A&M will be top notch, as Kevin Sumlin leaves one Texas school(Houston), for another. I just think a new coach normally has transitional problems in his first year at a new program. My hope is Sumlin has trouble this year, and for years to come. I want them to regret the day they decided to leave the Big12 for the SEC.
If A&M has trouble in their first game vs. an underrated LaTech team, oh boy will this be a bad year for them. I can only hope!
Friday, August 3, 2012
#UTEP #MINERS Evaluated by the 46-17 #CollegeEdge
UTEP plays Oklahoma and Wisconsin by Sept. 22nd of this upcoming season. If the Miners can survive the thrashing they will probably take in those two games, both mentally and, more importantly, physically, I believe the Miners should be pretty good when they play their CUSA schedule.
Veteran coach Mike Price, in his 9th year with the school, has a returning QB in Lamaison, a nice receiving corps, and a veteran offensive line( 4 of 5 starters return). The RB position is relatively sparse, but, Price has done a very good job of coming up with very productive RBs at ElPaso, and I believe he'll do the same this year.
Okay, his defense can be scary- they gave up 30 points per game in '11- but, they do have 7 starters back, including experience in every defensive category, and that might be enough to make them more than just competitive in Conference USA.
The wild card for this team might be their strong special teams play. I'll give extra points to a head coach who has consistently good special teams. You would never expect a forgotten Texas team like UTEP to have cosistently good ST play, but, that's exactly what Price produces almost every year.It's a sign of a well-coached team.
I won't call UTEP a go-with team, but, they are well worth watching in '12.
Veteran coach Mike Price, in his 9th year with the school, has a returning QB in Lamaison, a nice receiving corps, and a veteran offensive line( 4 of 5 starters return). The RB position is relatively sparse, but, Price has done a very good job of coming up with very productive RBs at ElPaso, and I believe he'll do the same this year.
Okay, his defense can be scary- they gave up 30 points per game in '11- but, they do have 7 starters back, including experience in every defensive category, and that might be enough to make them more than just competitive in Conference USA.
The wild card for this team might be their strong special teams play. I'll give extra points to a head coach who has consistently good special teams. You would never expect a forgotten Texas team like UTEP to have cosistently good ST play, but, that's exactly what Price produces almost every year.It's a sign of a well-coached team.
I won't call UTEP a go-with team, but, they are well worth watching in '12.
#MississippiState #Bulldogs(FBS) Evaluated by the #CollegeEdge
I like the head coach of the Miss.St. Bulldogs, Dan Mullen. He's brought a consistently decent product to the field in his three years at the helm, and has won both of his bowl games in dominating fashion. That's no small feat at a previously moribund program.
He has no real stars at any position on offense, but, his formula on that side of the ball has been fairly successful: run the ball consistently and throw the ball infrequently, but, safely.
Despite the loss of #1 draft choice Fletcher Cox, Mullen has a decent corps of returning starters back on defense, including two, all-league performers. The most important quality of that defense is the fact the Bulldogs are starting to get highly rated recruits at all of the defensive positions.
Handicapping Angles: I will always consider an SEC team when it steps down in class. Particularly so, in the case of the Bulldogs, who have to fight and claw in every SEC game, and, unlike their league's elite, can't afford to let down when they play lesser competition...Also, Mullen's record vs. the spread in conference games is a decent 13-11. Not bad when you consider the competition.
Miss. St. plays Jackson St., Troy, So.Alabama, and Kentucky in four of their first five games. We may not have a feel for how good the Dogs are until they've played Tennessee in week 6.
He has no real stars at any position on offense, but, his formula on that side of the ball has been fairly successful: run the ball consistently and throw the ball infrequently, but, safely.
Despite the loss of #1 draft choice Fletcher Cox, Mullen has a decent corps of returning starters back on defense, including two, all-league performers. The most important quality of that defense is the fact the Bulldogs are starting to get highly rated recruits at all of the defensive positions.
Handicapping Angles: I will always consider an SEC team when it steps down in class. Particularly so, in the case of the Bulldogs, who have to fight and claw in every SEC game, and, unlike their league's elite, can't afford to let down when they play lesser competition...Also, Mullen's record vs. the spread in conference games is a decent 13-11. Not bad when you consider the competition.
Miss. St. plays Jackson St., Troy, So.Alabama, and Kentucky in four of their first five games. We may not have a feel for how good the Dogs are until they've played Tennessee in week 6.
Thursday, August 2, 2012
#Tulsa #GoldenHurricane(FBS) Evaluated by the #CollegeEdge
Coach Blankenship had the luxury of a 3-yr. starter at QB in Kinne last year. That helped the coach navigate through his first real test as a head coach. This year Tulsa has a new starter at QB, albeit a pretty highly rated one in Cody Green, a transfer from Nebraska. I'm always hesitant to support a team that loses a good QB who has been the starter 3 or 4 years.
It will help Blankenship that he has good running backs returning(1650 total yards rushing), two, 2nd CUSAers at the wide receiver positions and 8 returning starters on defense, including three, all-league performers.
The Golden Hurricane have a new starter at QB, and a still young coach at the helm. For that reason, Tulsa's season, despite a strong corps of returning starters, will hinge on the play of QB Cody Green, or, whoever is chosen to play that position, and how well the young coach adapts to life without a 3-yr. starter at QB.It'll be fun to see how well the QB position performs in the opening contest vs. ISU.
It will help Blankenship that he has good running backs returning(1650 total yards rushing), two, 2nd CUSAers at the wide receiver positions and 8 returning starters on defense, including three, all-league performers.
The Golden Hurricane have a new starter at QB, and a still young coach at the helm. For that reason, Tulsa's season, despite a strong corps of returning starters, will hinge on the play of QB Cody Green, or, whoever is chosen to play that position, and how well the young coach adapts to life without a 3-yr. starter at QB.It'll be fun to see how well the QB position performs in the opening contest vs. ISU.
#Mississippi #Rebels( FBS) Evaluated by the #CollegeEdge
You know, Houston Nutt was a pretty good coach at Arkansas. In fact, Nutt wasn't too bad in his first two years at Ole Miss. But, his last two years with Mississippi were atrocious. I really can't explain why. Did he lose interest somewhere along the way? Have the Rebels fallen so far since Eli Manning left, that even a pretty decent coach like Nutt can't get the job done? Whatever the reasons, Nutt is now gone, and I don't see much hope for this 2012 version of the Mississippi Rebels.
They have an inexperienced, new head coach; complete questionmarks at QB, O-Line and Running Back positions, and, absolutely no standouts at any of the defensive positions. This is bad news for a team that only scored 16 points per game on offense last year, and gave up 5.4 yards on the ground, 61% completions thru the air on defense. Wow!
Handicapping Angle: I hate to admit this, but, sometimes I get as pumped up about a team that I believe will be horrible as I do about a team I believe will be very good. Why? Predictabilty. The more predictable a team is, either good or bad, the more success you will have handicapping that team.
My bottom line on Mississippi is they will be horrible this year.
They have an inexperienced, new head coach; complete questionmarks at QB, O-Line and Running Back positions, and, absolutely no standouts at any of the defensive positions. This is bad news for a team that only scored 16 points per game on offense last year, and gave up 5.4 yards on the ground, 61% completions thru the air on defense. Wow!
Handicapping Angle: I hate to admit this, but, sometimes I get as pumped up about a team that I believe will be horrible as I do about a team I believe will be very good. Why? Predictabilty. The more predictable a team is, either good or bad, the more success you will have handicapping that team.
My bottom line on Mississippi is they will be horrible this year.
#SMU #Mustangs(FBS) Evaluated by the #CollegeEdge
SMU had 18 starters back in '11. I had high hopes for the Mustangs. It was one of the teams I recommended my people take to win the CUSA. It was one of the teams I recommended my people take the over on in terms games won in '11. They disappointed me on both counts. The Mustangs played far below their potential last year.
This year they have only 11 starters back, including only 1 offensive-line starter in '11. They do have 2x, 1st CUSA RB Line back(1224 yards rushing last year), a nice linebacking corps, and one of my favorite coaches in college football, June Jones.
Last year, Jones made one of the most unusual decisions of the year when he benched a very effective returning starter at QB, Kyle Padron, after the very first game vs. Texas A&M. To this day, I don't understand why he benched an Honorable Mention QB who started every game in '10, and who had a 60% completion rate and a 31-14 interception/TD ratio. It was more baffling because of the respect I have for Jones in his development of QBs.
I mention all this because it will be interesting to see how successful Jones will be with SMU's most probable starting QB this year. His name is Garrett Gilbert. Sound familiar? He was the #2 rated High School QB in his HS class, and started two years, disappointingly, for the Texas Longhorns. One of the best story lines of the year could be the job Jones does with the, up-to-now, disappointing career of this highly recruited athlete.
Because I like Jones so much, I will follow closely how well the Mustangs do early against Baylor, and Texas A&M to see if Jones can get back some of the magic I believe he's capable of creating.
Question for my readers: Am I overrating June Jones' coaching ability? Are there inherent advantages to coaching in Hawaii, the program Jones successfully led prior to SMU? What do you think?
This year they have only 11 starters back, including only 1 offensive-line starter in '11. They do have 2x, 1st CUSA RB Line back(1224 yards rushing last year), a nice linebacking corps, and one of my favorite coaches in college football, June Jones.
Last year, Jones made one of the most unusual decisions of the year when he benched a very effective returning starter at QB, Kyle Padron, after the very first game vs. Texas A&M. To this day, I don't understand why he benched an Honorable Mention QB who started every game in '10, and who had a 60% completion rate and a 31-14 interception/TD ratio. It was more baffling because of the respect I have for Jones in his development of QBs.
I mention all this because it will be interesting to see how successful Jones will be with SMU's most probable starting QB this year. His name is Garrett Gilbert. Sound familiar? He was the #2 rated High School QB in his HS class, and started two years, disappointingly, for the Texas Longhorns. One of the best story lines of the year could be the job Jones does with the, up-to-now, disappointing career of this highly recruited athlete.
Because I like Jones so much, I will follow closely how well the Mustangs do early against Baylor, and Texas A&M to see if Jones can get back some of the magic I believe he's capable of creating.
Question for my readers: Am I overrating June Jones' coaching ability? Are there inherent advantages to coaching in Hawaii, the program Jones successfully led prior to SMU? What do you think?
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