#Auburn #Tigers evaluated by #TheCollegeEdge

In 2010, when Gene Chizik and his Auburn Tigers won the National Title, I firmly believed Chizik was a complete product of a lucky find in QB Cam Newton, and, consequently, went along for the ride of his life in seeing his Tigers win it all.
Then last year, with a new QB, an almost completely rebuilt offensive line, an almost completely new receiving corps, and only 3.5 starters back on defense, I was thoroughly convinced Auburn would get their butts kicked throughout the '11 season. It didn't happen. They admittedly had some bad losses, but, they went 4-4 in the SEC( wins vs. Fla. and So.Caro), and defeated Virginia fairly easily in the Chick-fil-A bowl game. I believe Chizik did a better job last year with nothing back, then he did in Auburn's momentous, championship season.
Auburn's offense will be serviceable with a new QB, albeit a highly rated one in Frazier, and decent talent at the other areas of the offense.
Chizik, who made his rep on the defensive side of the ball, will see the strength of his team on that side of the ball. They have 9 starters back on defense, including all of the two-deep on the defensive line, and, both cornerbacks.
Gene Chizik did such a good job with his team last year, I have to give his squad a decent chance to have another pretty good team this year. Here is Chizik's problem: he may have a better team this year and his record may not show it. They play Clemson, Miss St., LSU, and Arkansas in four of the first five games on their schedule. If they can go 3-2 in their first five games, this could be a pretty good year for Chizik and the Auburn Tigers.

#MarshallThunderingHerd evaluated by #TheCollege-edge

Philadelphia Eagles fans probably know very little about #Marshall, right? Even though the Birds drafted the #ThunderingHerd's best player in '11, defensive end Vince Curry, I still can assure you most Eagles fans don't even know Curry played for #Marshall. Well, I know that he did play for the CUSA squad, and I do believe his loss will affect Marshall this year. A team with a limited amount of highly rated recruits can't help but be affected by the loss of a #2 draft choice. What's more troubling for the Herd defense is that they also lose two all-CUSA linebackers. Expect high scoring affairs when #Marshall plays this year. They gave up 28.5 points per game with Curry.  What will they give up without him?
Marshall might still be able to outscore some opponents because of the strong(for a CUSA team) offense that returns. Eight starters are back on that side of the ball, including a decent returnee at QB(Cato), a decent O-Line(3 starters), and a nice nucleus of receivers. The part of this team that could elevate #Marshall to the upper echelon of the CUSA is their positive potential at RB. This program that produced Ahmad Bradshaw and Darius Marshall in recent years, has two good running backs returning. The real wild card that could elevate Marshall is the arrival of the 27th rated RB out of HS in '10, Miami transfer, freshman Kevin Grooms. If he runs with the same success as Bradshaw and Marshall, the Herd may warrant more of a look as the season progresses.
Marshall fans: don't be discouraged by the beating you will probably take in your opening game versus West Virginia. I think you'll be competitive in the CUSA.

The College-edge evaluates the Florida Gators

The Florida Gators will have a tremendous defense this year. They have 9 starters back , including all four D-backs, and the top six linebackers. Let's not forget that their head coach, Will Muschamp, made his rep as as a very good defensive coordinator, so, I have little doubt that the Gator defense will give almost all their opponents trouble. (I will mention now that I also have doubts about Muschamp as a head coach. His success as an outstanding D-Coordinator may not mean he can handle the pressure-cooker the Florida head coach will always face).
It's their offense that I think prevents them from being a national contender. They have a pretty strong offensive line( four starters back), but, new starters at the running back positions( they lost versatile RBs in Demps and Rainey) and at QB, and, a fairly weak returning, receiving corps make the Gators an SEC question mark.
Keep in mind, the Gators still recruit great athletes(e.g.their projected starter at QB, Jeff Driskel, was the #1 QB recruit his senior year in HS), and will overpower their weaker opponents( I hope they, and every other SEC team kicks A&M's butt. The Gators play them Sept.8th). I just think their inexperienced offense will cost them in the SEC East and in the national title picture.
Their game against an under-rated Tennessee squad on Sept. 15th will be an important indicator for Gator success in 2012.

College Team Evaluations Start Tonight!

I have completed 16 college football FBS, team ratings. I hope to write a short piece on all of the approximately 110 teams I will eventually work on. I spend about 40 minutes per team, but, will be short and succinct in my team evaluations.
The time I devote to each FBS program will result in each team's College-Edge rating. Though these ratings change on an almost weekly basis during the year, the approximately 75 hours of work I put in during the summer prepare me confidently for the upcoming season and for the short team evaluations that are coming at collegeedge.blogspot.com.
Feel free to respond to what I write, whether it's in agreement, or, to crticize.
I will start with the Florida Gators. I will then write about a team from a weak league, probably the WAC, then skip back to SEC, then back to the weaker league, and, so on. I think it's as important to know about the teams from weak leagues, as it is to write about teams from the elite leagues.
My communication with my valued readers starts tonight. It will include this blogging address; twitter(twitter.com/edgysam); and phillyrhymetime.com. I am exploring other places to write. Stay tuned.
I write this intro with the realization that this will probably not end until the end of January. I hope it's a nice ride.

Horse-Racing picks from the Parx: Sat., May 12th

Check out the rest of Dan's races from the Parx in Philly, but, first check out the NBA and/or Triple Crown to your right, and read some of my blogs written during college football season.Thanks.
Here are the balance of picks from the Parx:
Race 5: 7-4-2-6
Race 6: 2-1-4-5
Race 7: 4-5-1-6
Race 8: 5-4-6-1
Race 9: 2-1-7-5
Race 10: 6-9-1-7

I'll be releasing Dan's results later, but, if you'd like to check, go to equibase.com, and then click results, and then quick results. Go Dan!

Marshall vs. FIU

FIU has the better defense. That's a nice place to start. They are going against what is probably considered the 3rd string QB in R.Cato. First and second-string QBs for Marshall have both been lost to injuries. Cato is a freshman, and, though he's gotten some experience playing, he's just not that good. And, he doesn't have a real strong infantry to offer him enough relief.
FIU has a more stable QB in Carroll, more potential in the running game with Rhodes and Perry, and a star in receiver Ty Hilton. Bottom line: more potential offensive threats.
Finally, FIU has the slight home advantage: the game is being played in Florida.
FIU is the recommendation.
Because Marshall is an injury away from total disaster, I think they'll play it close to the vest with the fr. QB. That should limit their scoring opportunities vs. a tough FIU defense.
On the other side of the ball, Marshall does play pretty decent defense, so I don't expect FIU to totally run away with the score.
The under in the FIU-Marshall contest is the recommendation.

FSU @ Florida: The Why

We're recommending the over in the FSU/Florida game. Here's why: FSU plays some of the toughest rush defense in college football. Seven of the eight games they've played in the ACC, the Seminoles have held the opposition under 3.5 yards-per carry. They'll stop Florida's rush offense mainly because Florida offers little threat thru the air. The Gator passing attack has been non-existent. So, I don't see Florida scoring much tonight.
FSU's rushing attack has been mediocre at best, so, consequently, I don't envision Seminoles running the ball much vs. relatively tough Gator rush D. FSU and QB Manuel do throw the ball pretty effectively, but, they are facing the strongest unit of the Gator team, their pass defense.
Hence, my recommendation of a low scoring, under- the- total match between these rivals.
FSU's on the road, and doesn't run the ball well, so, even though I'm leaning Seminoles, I can't take a team that doesn't run the ball well, particularly in a road game.