Boise St. vs. Fresno St: Friday, October 7, 2011

Read my recommendation on last night's Cal-Oregon game. A lot of the same principals apply here. Fresno St. is playing an excellent team in Boise St. The Broncos are prolific on both offense and defense. In order for the Bulldogs to have a chance against this team, everything must be in order. For the Bulldogs, in my opinion, it is not.
They do have the second-best offensive weapon on the field in RB Robbie Rouse, but, I just don't think he'll be enough. The Dogs have a new QB starting this year, and he's been mediocre, at best; they've lost 142 receptions at receiving positions; they've lost 4, all-WAC offensive linemen
from the '10 team; and, finally, they've lost 11 sacks and a rare #4 draft choice from last year's D-Line. An already porous defense could not afford that loss.
You can't play a strong Bronco team with that many deficiencies. By the way, Boise St. QB Kellen Moore had a sub-par game last week vs. Nevada. It won't happen again this week.
In my opinion, there are only two options in this game: Boise St., or, stay away from the game. I would never invest hard-earned cash on Fresno St in this kind of matchup. I'll take option #1 and recommend the Boise St Broncos in tonight's ESPN contest.

Cal's Golden Bears vs. Oregon Ducks

Last year Cal had an experienced QB who completed 60% of his passes. This year they have a starting QB in Maynard, who is the 253rd rated QB coming out of his HS class, is new to this Golden Bear system, and is a transfer from Buffalo U., where he was just mediocre. Unfortunately, that mediocrity has carried over to Cal.
Last year, Cal had 1200 yard-rusher, Shane Vereen. He left early and was drafted #2 in the NFL draft. His replacement is an okay, but, not dynamic runner Cal has consistently put on the field in recent years. (His name is Isi Sofele).
Cal's defense is okay, but, they have given up 21, 33 and 31 points to Fres.St, Colorado, and Washington, respectively. That won't cut it vs. Oregon.
Here is my bottom line: if Cal has a chance to stay in contention with Oregon, they need all their offensive "ducks" in line. They don't. I don't think you can go into Oregon(they're 8-2 as home favorites under Kelly) and expect to cover with BIG question marks on offense. And, Cal has big question marks on offense.
This is not a revenge game, but, it's close. Cal probably should have beaten the Ducks last year. I think coach Kelly will emphatically remind his team of that.
Oregon Ducks are my recommendation in tonight's ESPN, Pac 20 game. (I'll call the Pac 10 whatever I feel like calling them).

USF-Pitt: Sept. 30, 2011

I have a rating system I've worked on since the beginning of July, 2011. Every FBS team, with few exceptions, gets a rating from me. I consider every aspect of a team, and put a value on those parts of every team. I then factor in things like conference record, home-field, and more.
It is one of my key handicapping tools. I no longer let it completely govern my picks, but, it is still one of my main resources when I make my final decisions on a game.
I have Pitt as the higher rated team in this contest, and, if I were to put a line on this game, I would've made Pitt the favorite. They have an experienced defensive interior, decent DBacks, the best RB in the game in Graham, a formidable, and experienced QB in Sunseri, and the home-field in an ESPN game.
USF brings much to the table as well, not the least of which is a very good coach in Skip Holtz.
I just don't think the relatively weak schedule they've played to date(okay, N.Dame was a tough opponent, but, their stats in that game were less than impressive)which included Ball St, Fla.A&M and UTEP, warrants them being a favorite on the road vs. a very good Pitt team and program.
The Pitt Panthers are the pick in tonight's Big East contest!

4th Pick: A.J. Green

Great player departs Georgia, but, Bulldawgs have a returning, very good QB back, good RB back, and an all-SEC center returning. The Dawgs will miss Green, but, they'll more than survive.

3rd Pick: Marcell Dareus

Very good player for 'Bama, but, I don't believe his deparure will deter from the great defense I expect the Crimson Tide to play this year. Saban's problem will be with his offense. Reasoning for that to come.

2nd Pick: Von Miller

This guy almost single-handedly helped turn the A&M defense into a formidable unit. His departure will almost certainly return the Aggies to the pedestrian defense I've become used to. I'm not sure what his sack totals were this year, but, for the past two years his sack totals at 30, or higher. WOW!

First Pick: Cam Newton

Auburn will lose a quarterback who did everything for them this past championship season. The two years prior to his arrival, Auburn was 13-12 overall, and 5-11 vs. the SEC. With the loss of Newton, and no experienced QB returning, and also with the loss of 4 out of 5 offensive linemen from the championship team, I suspect I will be anxious to go against the Tigers this year.