Two teams that love to pass. Two teams that play bad defense. That combo leads us to a 2** star recommendation on the over in the Hawaii/LaTech contest.
Sleep well!
Saturday, October 2, 2010
IT'S THE BEWITCHING HOUR:THE 8:00P.M. PLAYS
We had seven plays to start the day. We may end the day with an equal amount of plays, thanks to the unusual amount of 8:00p.m. starts tonight. Lots of plays to give out so let's get it on:
B.C. plus the points over Notre Dame: The better defense is also at home, and, what the heck, I do have the Eagles rated higher than the favored Irish. B.C. in a 2** play
Florida plus the points over Alabama...and... the over in the same game, both in 2** plays
Southern Miss in a 2** play over Marshall, and the under in the same game in 2** plays
Iowa in a 2** play over PSU: This Hawkeye defense just too tough for the freshman QB, and, again, on "ratings Saturday," I simply have Iowa rated much higher than the NITS.
Stanford's scary, but, getting too much credit for their wins over so-so competition. Oregon's home in one of the country's toughest venues, with 16 returning starters, and guess what: they have the much higher College Edge rating. On this "ratings Saturday," that means everything!
Oregon in a 2** play!
If I get pumped up, I may still try to work on the two remaining games on the schedule: Nevada-UNLV and LaTech-Hawaii(is there anything better than having a 4**** play in an Hawaii, late-night home game?) Check in.
B.C. plus the points over Notre Dame: The better defense is also at home, and, what the heck, I do have the Eagles rated higher than the favored Irish. B.C. in a 2** play
Florida plus the points over Alabama...and... the over in the same game, both in 2** plays
Southern Miss in a 2** play over Marshall, and the under in the same game in 2** plays
Iowa in a 2** play over PSU: This Hawkeye defense just too tough for the freshman QB, and, again, on "ratings Saturday," I simply have Iowa rated much higher than the NITS.
Stanford's scary, but, getting too much credit for their wins over so-so competition. Oregon's home in one of the country's toughest venues, with 16 returning starters, and guess what: they have the much higher College Edge rating. On this "ratings Saturday," that means everything!
Oregon in a 2** play!
If I get pumped up, I may still try to work on the two remaining games on the schedule: Nevada-UNLV and LaTech-Hawaii(is there anything better than having a 4**** play in an Hawaii, late-night home game?) Check in.
IT'S THE NIGHT PLAYS!
Okay, so it hasn't been such a great day. I will trudge on with the grand strategy of going with the under-valued teams, according to my rating system. It's really worked well today, hasn't it?
Here are two 7:00p.m., TWO STAR PLAYS:
Colorado over Georgia
Texas Tech over ISU
We'll return throughout the night until the schedule is concluded.
Here are two 7:00p.m., TWO STAR PLAYS:
Colorado over Georgia
Texas Tech over ISU
We'll return throughout the night until the schedule is concluded.
WHY WAIT:ARIZONA ST/OREGON ST.
Oregon St. is the better team. They have played a tough early schedule, which I believe has obscured how good this team could be. My ratings have Oregon St. far better than ASU. Since this "ratings Saturday," I will go with the much higher rated home team and recommend Oregon St. in a 3*** play.
MID-DAY PICKS( Go Owls!)
I'll take the better defense: Texas in a 2** pick over Oklahoma
In the same game: the under in the Texas/Oklahoma game for a 1* play
Virginia Tech in a 2** play over N.C.St.: I know I'm going against momentum in going against the Wolfpack, but, V.T. should take advantage of what I believe is a weak defense, and, besides, I have V.T. as a 7.5 favorite in the game, and the actual line is dropping, and now stands at 3.5. I'll take the bargain.
PLENTY OF SELECTIONS TO COME
In the same game: the under in the Texas/Oklahoma game for a 1* play
Virginia Tech in a 2** play over N.C.St.: I know I'm going against momentum in going against the Wolfpack, but, V.T. should take advantage of what I believe is a weak defense, and, besides, I have V.T. as a 7.5 favorite in the game, and the actual line is dropping, and now stands at 3.5. I'll take the bargain.
PLENTY OF SELECTIONS TO COME
NAVY-AIRFORCE
We're going to take Navy in a 2** selection over Air Force. The Middies' and Falcons' ratings are almost the same, with the Air Force slightly higher. I had Air Force as a 2 point favorite, so the value pick, according to my ratings, is Navy.
Air Force will be a scary opponent for three reasons: they have a good coach; they are home; and they are in serious revenge mode, having lost to Navy 7 games in a row! But, it's important to note these teams know each other very well, and that is no better illustrated in the fact that in 6 of the last 7 contests the Navy has won by less than a TD.
Yo, all picks are potentially scary, but, we like the Navy to cover in another closely played game.
Air Force will be a scary opponent for three reasons: they have a good coach; they are home; and they are in serious revenge mode, having lost to Navy 7 games in a row! But, it's important to note these teams know each other very well, and that is no better illustrated in the fact that in 6 of the last 7 contests the Navy has won by less than a TD.
Yo, all picks are potentially scary, but, we like the Navy to cover in another closely played game.
Friday, October 1, 2010
WELCOME OCTOBER:EARLY PLAYS FOR OCTOBER 2, 2010
This will be a special day for me. I have decided to do something revolutionary and invest in every game where my ratings tell me that the actual line in the game is sufficiently different from what I believe the line should be. Let me use one of the games I've handicapped to illustrate what I mean:
In the Northwestern/Minnesota contest, my ratings put the Wildcats at 85.5, and the Golden Gophers at only 61.1. Maybe, one day I'll put in print all the variables that result in a team's rating. Let me write this: Minnesota's rating is one of the lowest in Division 1A. Their sub-par running, and passing game, and the fact they have LESS than one starter back on defense lends much to their low rating. Based on these team ratings, I believe Northwestern should've been a 12-14.5 favorite over Minnesota. They are presently favored by only 5.5. According to my ratings, Northwestern is seriously under-valued, and I will make the Wildcats a 2** play.
This is the first time this year, and the first time in a while, that I've decided to totally trust my ratings, and invest in every game where I believe my ratings are right, and the actual line is wrong. I will not ask you to do the same. Follow my picks, let's see how I do, and, if you decide to go with my selections, let's hope we enjoy a profitable day. Here are my early plays:
UConn Huskies in a 2** play over Vanderbilt
Northwestern Wildcats over Minnesota in a 2** play
Kentucky Wildcats in a 2** play over Mississippi
Kansas Jayhawks over Baylor in a 2** play
Ohio St. Buckeyes in a 2** play over Illinois
Florida St. Seminoles over Virginia in a 2** play
Clemson Tigers in a 2** play over Miami
Added Note: I believe in certain line situations, IT IS worth buying a .5 point. Last night, for example, my line on the A&M/Ok.St. game dropped to +2.5. I took A&M in the game. The 3 point differential in football games is so common, I thought it worthwhile to buy the extra 1/2 point, and make A&M a +3 point underdog in the game. It was a good decision. I got a push in the game, instead of a loss. The commission, or vigorish, moved from 10% to 20%.
I did the same in tomorrow's UConn/Vanderbilt contest. My line had UConn as a -7.5 favorite. I bought the 1/2 point, and made Uconn a -7 point favorite. Again, in certain favorable line situations, I do believe it is worth buying the extra 1/2 point.
Return to collegeedge.blogspot.com throughout the day, and at approximately 1:30p.m., join me at my phone line as well for other possible early selections. My number is: 267-752-edge.
In the Northwestern/Minnesota contest, my ratings put the Wildcats at 85.5, and the Golden Gophers at only 61.1. Maybe, one day I'll put in print all the variables that result in a team's rating. Let me write this: Minnesota's rating is one of the lowest in Division 1A. Their sub-par running, and passing game, and the fact they have LESS than one starter back on defense lends much to their low rating. Based on these team ratings, I believe Northwestern should've been a 12-14.5 favorite over Minnesota. They are presently favored by only 5.5. According to my ratings, Northwestern is seriously under-valued, and I will make the Wildcats a 2** play.
This is the first time this year, and the first time in a while, that I've decided to totally trust my ratings, and invest in every game where I believe my ratings are right, and the actual line is wrong. I will not ask you to do the same. Follow my picks, let's see how I do, and, if you decide to go with my selections, let's hope we enjoy a profitable day. Here are my early plays:
UConn Huskies in a 2** play over Vanderbilt
Northwestern Wildcats over Minnesota in a 2** play
Kentucky Wildcats in a 2** play over Mississippi
Kansas Jayhawks over Baylor in a 2** play
Ohio St. Buckeyes in a 2** play over Illinois
Florida St. Seminoles over Virginia in a 2** play
Clemson Tigers in a 2** play over Miami
Added Note: I believe in certain line situations, IT IS worth buying a .5 point. Last night, for example, my line on the A&M/Ok.St. game dropped to +2.5. I took A&M in the game. The 3 point differential in football games is so common, I thought it worthwhile to buy the extra 1/2 point, and make A&M a +3 point underdog in the game. It was a good decision. I got a push in the game, instead of a loss. The commission, or vigorish, moved from 10% to 20%.
I did the same in tomorrow's UConn/Vanderbilt contest. My line had UConn as a -7.5 favorite. I bought the 1/2 point, and made Uconn a -7 point favorite. Again, in certain favorable line situations, I do believe it is worth buying the extra 1/2 point.
Return to collegeedge.blogspot.com throughout the day, and at approximately 1:30p.m., join me at my phone line as well for other possible early selections. My number is: 267-752-edge.
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