Vanderbilt is just plain bad on offense, they lost their best defensive player to an ACL from an already poor defense, and the coaching situation is in flux, as Johnson is not coaching, and an interim coach is in place.
Northwestern has a decent, if not spectacular offense back, a strong interior defense, and a more solid, stable coaching staff. Earlier, you may have read that it's my opinion you can make money on bad teams. We made money earlier today for Colorado, and against a bad team(CSU), and I think we can make a nice investment here against a bad team in Vandy.
MAJOR PLAY ON NORTHWESTERN
Some selections should be made simply because your instincts tell you it's the right move. So it is with my next selection. Army's Cadets are in the second year of coach Ellerson's triple option offense. They ran the ball effectively last year vs. E.Michigan(300 yards rushing). This year Army has 8 starters back on offense( the same amount on defense), so I see no reason why they shouldn't dominate E.M.'s horrible defense to an even greater degree this year. I feel Army makes some large strides this year under coach Ellerson( won 3 titles in 8 years at CalPoly), and it kicks off tonight vs. E. Michigan.
2** play on Army
Saturday, September 4, 2010
MAJOR PLAY FOR 6:00p.m.
Immediately after writing my last article, I did my work on Syracuse vs. Akron. Syracuse may have some questions on offense, but, as I wrote in the last posting, they have the much better athletes, and a 1000 yard-rusher returning for the Orange. More than enough to score on a weak Zip defense.
On defense, Syracuse has almost 10 starters back, including a 1st Big East DT, and two all-league linebackers who combined for 16 SACKS!!!!! That is unheard of, and I will write right now, that this defense will make Syracuse a strong contender in the Big East! Akron simply cannot respond offensively to the Orange crush "D." Their QB is very sub-par, their running game stinks, and they lose a 2-yr. starter at the all-important center position.
On top of all this, Akron introduces a new coaching staff( coach Ianella has no head-coaching experience), with new schemes on both offense and defense.
MAJOR PLAY ON SYRACUSE.
On defense, Syracuse has almost 10 starters back, including a 1st Big East DT, and two all-league linebackers who combined for 16 SACKS!!!!! That is unheard of, and I will write right now, that this defense will make Syracuse a strong contender in the Big East! Akron simply cannot respond offensively to the Orange crush "D." Their QB is very sub-par, their running game stinks, and they lose a 2-yr. starter at the all-important center position.
On top of all this, Akron introduces a new coaching staff( coach Ianella has no head-coaching experience), with new schemes on both offense and defense.
MAJOR PLAY ON SYRACUSE.
Strong Conference vs. Weak Conference matchups
One of the toughest handicapping spots is evaluating games where a team from a strong conference plays a team from a weak conference. Teams from the stronger conferences simply get the better recruits, so it would be assinine to assign the same point value to returning starters, for example. Second string players on a Florida would be all-conference players in the MAC conference.
I have come to believe when a team from a strong conference plays a team from a weak conference(e.g.Big 10 vs. MAC), the team from the weaker conference must have no weak links. If they do, go with the team from the stronger conference. Let's take the Arizona-Toledo matchup from last night. Arizona had some defensive questions, with only 4 starters back, and a new defensive coordinator( Stoops' brother left for another DC job). In conference, the Wildcats will pay for those deficiencies. But, against a Toledo squad with much lower recruited athletes, Arizona's weaknesses were never exposed. Toledo had a very weak link in the one spot they needed to be tough, at the QB position. On defense, they had only 5 starters back on a squad that was absolutely horrible last year. They might be able to get away with those deficiencies in conference, but, not against a team that gets the kind of recruits Arizona gets.
We took advantage of this conference imbalance in the ISU-N.I. game and will continue to look for other similar situations.
STAY IN TOUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR MORE POSSIBLE RELEASES.
Didn't think the Illini could hang with Missou. Sometimes you have to be happy with the games you stayed off. I liked Missou, but, I had the line at -11 and thought the actual line was too high for a rivalry matchup. As much as I don't like Ron Zook as a game-day coach, he still gets good recruits. You must always be wary of teams with good recruits.
I have come to believe when a team from a strong conference plays a team from a weak conference(e.g.Big 10 vs. MAC), the team from the weaker conference must have no weak links. If they do, go with the team from the stronger conference. Let's take the Arizona-Toledo matchup from last night. Arizona had some defensive questions, with only 4 starters back, and a new defensive coordinator( Stoops' brother left for another DC job). In conference, the Wildcats will pay for those deficiencies. But, against a Toledo squad with much lower recruited athletes, Arizona's weaknesses were never exposed. Toledo had a very weak link in the one spot they needed to be tough, at the QB position. On defense, they had only 5 starters back on a squad that was absolutely horrible last year. They might be able to get away with those deficiencies in conference, but, not against a team that gets the kind of recruits Arizona gets.
We took advantage of this conference imbalance in the ISU-N.I. game and will continue to look for other similar situations.
STAY IN TOUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR MORE POSSIBLE RELEASES.
Didn't think the Illini could hang with Missou. Sometimes you have to be happy with the games you stayed off. I liked Missou, but, I had the line at -11 and thought the actual line was too high for a rivalry matchup. As much as I don't like Ron Zook as a game-day coach, he still gets good recruits. You must always be wary of teams with good recruits.
Friday, September 3, 2010
HERE ARE MY SATURDAY COLLEGE PICKS
Before we give you our picks for tomorrow, here is my advice on what you should wager on 1* plays;2** plays; 3** plays; and 4****, or what we also call our MAJOR, plays.
Remember, in an earlier article, I advised that you invest 3% to 5% of your bankroll( what you've decided you can afford to lose in a season) on all MAJOR plays during this season. If your bankroll is $5000, every MAJOR play is worthy of $150.00 per play, or 3% of your bankroll. 1* plays are worthy of approximately $40.00 for each play; 2** plays are worthy of $75.00 for every play; 3*** plays are worthy of a $110.00 investment for every play. I'm asking that you do everything possible follow these recommendations. It will instill you with tremendous discipline. Now, here are the picks for Saturday, Sept. 4th:
Colorado vs. CSU: Call my phone at between 1:30p.m.-1:45p.m. for this game.
KSU vs. UCLA: KSU in a MAJOR play over UCLA
Louisville vs. Kentucky: Louisville in a 2** play
UConn vs. Michigan: UConn in a 1* play: UConn would have normally been a higher play, but, Michigan still has the better recruits, and, I still believe Rodriguez is a good coach.Let's see what he does here
Purdue vs. Notre Dame: 2** play on the under
Washington vs. BYU: MAJOR play (4****) on Washington. Under my rating system, they are simply the better team, and, rather than an underdog, they should be favorites.
Please tune in again at approximately 1:00p.m. for more potential picks, and a schedule for the rest of the day.
Remember, in an earlier article, I advised that you invest 3% to 5% of your bankroll( what you've decided you can afford to lose in a season) on all MAJOR plays during this season. If your bankroll is $5000, every MAJOR play is worthy of $150.00 per play, or 3% of your bankroll. 1* plays are worthy of approximately $40.00 for each play; 2** plays are worthy of $75.00 for every play; 3*** plays are worthy of a $110.00 investment for every play. I'm asking that you do everything possible follow these recommendations. It will instill you with tremendous discipline. Now, here are the picks for Saturday, Sept. 4th:
Colorado vs. CSU: Call my phone at between 1:30p.m.-1:45p.m. for this game.
KSU vs. UCLA: KSU in a MAJOR play over UCLA
Louisville vs. Kentucky: Louisville in a 2** play
UConn vs. Michigan: UConn in a 1* play: UConn would have normally been a higher play, but, Michigan still has the better recruits, and, I still believe Rodriguez is a good coach.Let's see what he does here
Purdue vs. Notre Dame: 2** play on the under
Washington vs. BYU: MAJOR play (4****) on Washington. Under my rating system, they are simply the better team, and, rather than an underdog, they should be favorites.
Please tune in again at approximately 1:00p.m. for more potential picks, and a schedule for the rest of the day.
ANATOMY OF A MAJOR PLAY: THIS YEAR'S FIRST!
Like the Colorado-CSU game, I'm going to do a full handicapping analysis on my first MAJOR play of the year, and, it's appropriate that my first MAJOR play involves one of my favorite coaches of all time. The game UCLA vs. KSU.
Again, I did my ratings early on in June on these two teams. At that time, they were pretty even. But, then it was time to check injuries, suspensions, and other roster adjustments( remember, I adjust my ratings WEEKLY during the season). The bootom line: UCLA has had a tremendous amount of attrition at key positions. So, now I ask five key questions in the game: Will KSU run the ball on UCLA? KSU has a 1000 yd. rusher returning, 8 of the top 10 offensive linemen back, and a coach who loves to run vs. a defense that has only ONE returning starter in defensive front seven. YES, KSU will run the ball, and, very effectively. Will KSU pass the ball on UCLA? KSU has a serviceable senior QB, but a lot of inexperience at the receiving corps( no returning starters vs. a team that always plays pretty decent pass defense. KSU's job will be to throw no interceptions, because they will have little success passing the ball. Will UCLA run the ball on KSU? The Bruins have lost 3 projected starters already this year in the offensive line, have barely more than 1 starter back at that position, and they have a weak Rb crew vs. a KSU team that returned to Wildcat style defense in '09, giving up only 105 yards rushing per game. A solid nucleus of returning players in the interior defense means UCLA will have great difficulty rushing the ball. Will UCLA pass the ball on KSU? QB Prince is hurting, and he's not that good regardless of health. His backups have good potential, but, no experience. This could be a weakness for KSU later in the season, but, not Saturday. UCLA will have limited success passing the ball( also note that in Snyder's previous tenure at KSU, his pass defenses were almost always good).
The final question: Who has the tangible advantage in the game? Are you kidding? KSU, and my main man, Bill Snyder, are opening the season at home, in a revenge situation( UCLA beat them at home last year, 23-9), against a LA team that's traveling to one of the most difficult destinations( I mean that literally) in Manhattan, Kansas. The clear tangible edge goes to KSU.
I spent a little time envisioning how the game will be played, and, before knowing what the actual line on the game is, I put the line at KSU -13 over UCLA.
When I saw the actual line opened at -2( and is presently at -1.5 to -2), my firsr MAJOR play of the season was finalized. It's very appropriate that the team I'm backing is coached by one of my favorites of all time, Bill Snyder.
KSU IN A MAJOR PLAY OVER UCLA!
Again, I did my ratings early on in June on these two teams. At that time, they were pretty even. But, then it was time to check injuries, suspensions, and other roster adjustments( remember, I adjust my ratings WEEKLY during the season). The bootom line: UCLA has had a tremendous amount of attrition at key positions. So, now I ask five key questions in the game: Will KSU run the ball on UCLA? KSU has a 1000 yd. rusher returning, 8 of the top 10 offensive linemen back, and a coach who loves to run vs. a defense that has only ONE returning starter in defensive front seven. YES, KSU will run the ball, and, very effectively. Will KSU pass the ball on UCLA? KSU has a serviceable senior QB, but a lot of inexperience at the receiving corps( no returning starters vs. a team that always plays pretty decent pass defense. KSU's job will be to throw no interceptions, because they will have little success passing the ball. Will UCLA run the ball on KSU? The Bruins have lost 3 projected starters already this year in the offensive line, have barely more than 1 starter back at that position, and they have a weak Rb crew vs. a KSU team that returned to Wildcat style defense in '09, giving up only 105 yards rushing per game. A solid nucleus of returning players in the interior defense means UCLA will have great difficulty rushing the ball. Will UCLA pass the ball on KSU? QB Prince is hurting, and he's not that good regardless of health. His backups have good potential, but, no experience. This could be a weakness for KSU later in the season, but, not Saturday. UCLA will have limited success passing the ball( also note that in Snyder's previous tenure at KSU, his pass defenses were almost always good).
The final question: Who has the tangible advantage in the game? Are you kidding? KSU, and my main man, Bill Snyder, are opening the season at home, in a revenge situation( UCLA beat them at home last year, 23-9), against a LA team that's traveling to one of the most difficult destinations( I mean that literally) in Manhattan, Kansas. The clear tangible edge goes to KSU.
I spent a little time envisioning how the game will be played, and, before knowing what the actual line on the game is, I put the line at KSU -13 over UCLA.
When I saw the actual line opened at -2( and is presently at -1.5 to -2), my firsr MAJOR play of the season was finalized. It's very appropriate that the team I'm backing is coached by one of my favorites of all time, Bill Snyder.
KSU IN A MAJOR PLAY OVER UCLA!
Thursday, September 2, 2010
TWO 2** PLAYS ON THE OPENING NIGHT OF COLLEGE FOOTBALL
So. Miss. has a good defense and two,good, experienced QBs who are capable of kepping the game competitive. So. Carolina not bad, but, not deserving of this big a spread.
ISU, as I mentioned in an earlier writing, is very good in non-conference games, ATS. It doesn't hurt that they have a very good, under-rated offense.
Two 2** plays on So.Miss. and ISU.
Explanation coming on what to do with 1*, 2**, and 3*** plays.
ISU, as I mentioned in an earlier writing, is very good in non-conference games, ATS. It doesn't hurt that they have a very good, under-rated offense.
Two 2** plays on So.Miss. and ISU.
Explanation coming on what to do with 1*, 2**, and 3*** plays.
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Attn: The Steps I Take in Handicapping a Game: Colorado vs. CSU
I've been handicapping games for a long time, and the no-doubt-about-it, most important aspect of my evaluations on any game I handicap is the rating I've given the two teams I'm looking at. I start working on each Division 1A team in June, and by this time, I've established a rating for almost all of them.
In the Colorado-CSU matchup, I have a team with a large edge in terms of team rating, and that team is Colorado. The rating edge grew even more when evaluating the game when I checked the injury reports, and found that CSU lost two starting defenders in their defensive line.
I then asked myself 5 questions concerning the Colo.-CSU game: Will Colo. run the ball on CSU? The Buffs have all their O-Line back from '09, returning Rbs with decent numbers, and CSU has just lost 2 def. linemen to injury. Yes, they will run. Will Colo. pass the ball on CSU? Yes. The QBs return, as well as top two receivers(plus the expd. O-line) vs. 6 returning def. starters for CSU that was horrible against the pass last year. Will CSU run the ball on Colo? Big losses in the O-line, against a veteran Buff defense, and it's my determination they will not be able to run the ball enough to protect their inexpd. QB. Will CSU pass the ball on COLO.? A new QB that's a freshman, with an inexperienced offensive line, and a receiving corps that's lost its top two receivers. Colo. has an experienced defense, with experienced CBs, so, no, I don't think CSU will have much success passing the ball.
The last question I ask is does either team have a clear intangible advantage? This is a rivalry game, so I would probably give a slight advantage to the team I think is the underdog, and I'd think that would be CSU.
Not knowing the actual line in this game, I try to picture what I feel will happen in this matchup. I think Colo. will run and pass against an injured, but, already weak CSU defense. CSU just doesn't have the experience or talent to keep up with a team that is clearly more experienced and more talented. If CSU gets behind early, I can envision a rout.
I've done the work, and now it's time to put my line on this game, and, remember, right now, I have no idea what the actual line on the game is.
I MAKE COLORADO A 15PT. FAVORITE OVER CSU! I will now look at the opening line on the game... I'm looking...TGS had the opening line at -9.5... If that is anywhere near the present line on the game, Colorado will be a strong, major play. Stay tuned.
In the Colorado-CSU matchup, I have a team with a large edge in terms of team rating, and that team is Colorado. The rating edge grew even more when evaluating the game when I checked the injury reports, and found that CSU lost two starting defenders in their defensive line.
I then asked myself 5 questions concerning the Colo.-CSU game: Will Colo. run the ball on CSU? The Buffs have all their O-Line back from '09, returning Rbs with decent numbers, and CSU has just lost 2 def. linemen to injury. Yes, they will run. Will Colo. pass the ball on CSU? Yes. The QBs return, as well as top two receivers(plus the expd. O-line) vs. 6 returning def. starters for CSU that was horrible against the pass last year. Will CSU run the ball on Colo? Big losses in the O-line, against a veteran Buff defense, and it's my determination they will not be able to run the ball enough to protect their inexpd. QB. Will CSU pass the ball on COLO.? A new QB that's a freshman, with an inexperienced offensive line, and a receiving corps that's lost its top two receivers. Colo. has an experienced defense, with experienced CBs, so, no, I don't think CSU will have much success passing the ball.
The last question I ask is does either team have a clear intangible advantage? This is a rivalry game, so I would probably give a slight advantage to the team I think is the underdog, and I'd think that would be CSU.
Not knowing the actual line in this game, I try to picture what I feel will happen in this matchup. I think Colo. will run and pass against an injured, but, already weak CSU defense. CSU just doesn't have the experience or talent to keep up with a team that is clearly more experienced and more talented. If CSU gets behind early, I can envision a rout.
I've done the work, and now it's time to put my line on this game, and, remember, right now, I have no idea what the actual line on the game is.
I MAKE COLORADO A 15PT. FAVORITE OVER CSU! I will now look at the opening line on the game... I'm looking...TGS had the opening line at -9.5... If that is anywhere near the present line on the game, Colorado will be a strong, major play. Stay tuned.
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