Tennessee Positives Prior to Start of 2014 Season: Returning QBs all had starting experience; I liked coach Butch Jones. He did a good job at Central Michigan and Cincinnati; all of the top receivers returned from the '13 squad; all starting defensive backs from '13 returned to the '14 team.
Tennessee Negatives Prior to Start of 2014 Season: the returning QBs from '13 all returned, but, all had bad years as starters; no full time starters returned to the O-line; lost a 1100-yard rusher from the '13 team; only ONE starter returned to front seven on defense; the Vols play in the toughest conference in the FBS - the SEC.
EdgySam Sums Up Tennessee's 2014 Season: The Vols played up to my expectations. They didn't rush the ball well; they didn't defend the rush well; they didn't pass the ball well. The only part of their game that met expectations, because of the experience at the defensive back positions, was the pass defense. In typical SEC fashion, and which further illustrates how tough the SEC is, Tennessee was 3-5 in conference play, but, were 3-1 in non-conference games. In my preseason notes, I wrote that I should be " worried about new OL, stinky QBs and no D-line. Tread carefully with Vols." Considering weaknesses that coach Jones had coming into '13, it wasn't that bad a year for the team from Knoxville.
EdgySam Very Preliminary Outlook for Tennessee in 2015: 8.5 starters return to the offense, including all of the O-Line. Eight starters return to the defense. Like Kentucky, unless the Vols get improved play from the quarterback position, it'll probably be the same old stuff for them in 2015. They'll get 2, maybe 3 wins at the most, vs. the SEC, and probably kick butt when they play teams outside of their own tough conference. I do like HC Jones a lot. With 16 starters back, he might be able step up in class in the SEC. He might. He probably won't, at least not in 2015.
Friday, January 30, 2015
Wednesday, January 28, 2015
@EdgySam Summarizes #SouthCarolina 2014 FBS Season
South Carolina Handicapping Positives Prior to Start of 2014 Season: 4 O-Linemen returned to start from '13; 2nd SEC RB Davis, with 1183 yards rushing in '13, returned; #1 receiver departed, but, every other significant receiver returned from '13; all LBs returned as well as starters at the non-cornerback defensive back positions; Coach Steve Spurrier!
South Carolina Handicapping Negatives Prior to Start of 2014 Season: Loss of QB Connor Shaw. He threw for 63.4% in 2013 and had an unreal 24-1 TD to Int. ratio. Wow; the loss of 3 quality D-Linemen ( #1 DC, a 3rd team AA DT, and a starting DE!); loss of both starting CBs from 2013.
EdgySam Summarizes South Carolina's 2014 Season: According to my College Edge ratings, the Gamecocks defense was horrible this year. I was surprised. Maybe I shouldn't have been. The gigantic losses in the D-Line and at the cornerback positions were right there for me to see. I ignored them, or lessened their significance probably because of my respect for the coaching ability of Spurrier. Man, was I wrong. As surprising, was the relative inefficiency of Spurrier's offense.Okay, Connor Shaw should have been hard to replace, but, QB Thompson was a senior, knew Spurrier's program and I thought he'd contribute more than he did. Also, I don't have RB Davis' final numbers, but, he underperformed dramatically. I took South Carolina in the first game of the year vs. A&M. I was surprised how they got thrashed. I shouldn't have been. For EdgySam, South Carolina was one of the big disappointments of the 2014 FBS Season!
EdgySam's Very Preliminary Outlook for South Carolina in 2015: Seven starters back on offense. The quarterback will be new, but, I'm looking forward to who will be starting. He will have to be better than this year's QB. Right?
The defense will have 8 starters back on defense, including 3 defensive linemen and both starting cornerbacks. The defense has to be better. Right?
Am I getting sucked in by my respect for the Old Ball Coach? Again?
South Carolina Handicapping Negatives Prior to Start of 2014 Season: Loss of QB Connor Shaw. He threw for 63.4% in 2013 and had an unreal 24-1 TD to Int. ratio. Wow; the loss of 3 quality D-Linemen ( #1 DC, a 3rd team AA DT, and a starting DE!); loss of both starting CBs from 2013.
EdgySam Summarizes South Carolina's 2014 Season: According to my College Edge ratings, the Gamecocks defense was horrible this year. I was surprised. Maybe I shouldn't have been. The gigantic losses in the D-Line and at the cornerback positions were right there for me to see. I ignored them, or lessened their significance probably because of my respect for the coaching ability of Spurrier. Man, was I wrong. As surprising, was the relative inefficiency of Spurrier's offense.Okay, Connor Shaw should have been hard to replace, but, QB Thompson was a senior, knew Spurrier's program and I thought he'd contribute more than he did. Also, I don't have RB Davis' final numbers, but, he underperformed dramatically. I took South Carolina in the first game of the year vs. A&M. I was surprised how they got thrashed. I shouldn't have been. For EdgySam, South Carolina was one of the big disappointments of the 2014 FBS Season!
EdgySam's Very Preliminary Outlook for South Carolina in 2015: Seven starters back on offense. The quarterback will be new, but, I'm looking forward to who will be starting. He will have to be better than this year's QB. Right?
The defense will have 8 starters back on defense, including 3 defensive linemen and both starting cornerbacks. The defense has to be better. Right?
Am I getting sucked in by my respect for the Old Ball Coach? Again?
Tuesday, January 27, 2015
@EdgySam Summarizes #Missouri #Wildcats 2014 FBS Season
Missouri Handicapping Positives Prior to start of 2014 Season: Honestly, the only positive I noted prior to the start of the 2014 season was the coach. Gary Pinkel is one of the outstanding coaches in all of the FBS. Did I think that would be enough to make the Tigers successful in 2014? No.
Missouri Handicapping Negatives Prior to start of 2014 Season: Where do I start? The Tigers lost loads on both sides of the ball. On offense they lost a 1200-yard rusher and the top 3 receivers. They did have a returning starter back at the quarterback position, but Mauk threw for only a 51% completion rate.
On defense, they lost 22 sacks at the DE position, lost the #1 tackler at the LB corps, and lost both starting CBs, including a 2nd team AA!
EdgySam's 2014 Expectations for Missouri: I absolutely thought Missouri would suffer through a let-down year after their enormous 2013 successes. New and inexperienced at almost all the key positions on both offense and defense, I believed the Tigers were a team you had to look for spots to go against them.
EdgySam Summary of Missouri's 2014 Season: With the scarcity of returning starters back from '13, HC Pinkel once again proved why he is one of FBS' outstanding coaches. With a mediocre year from starting QB Matt Mauk, and inexperience almost everywhere else, Pinkel amazingly figured out a way to get his Tigers back to the SEC Championship game by going 7-1 in regular season, SEC play. I studied the stats and I still find it hard to believe he got it done. Missouri's rushing attack and pass defense were above average ( nothing spectacular ), but, his team's rushing defense was just okay, and his passing attack was below average. Coach of the Year contender status should have been given to Missou's Gary Pinkel.
EdgySam's Brief Outlook for Missouri's 2015 season: QB Mauk goes into his 3rd year as a starter; 3 starters back on the OL and experience at the RB position; only 6 starters back on defense, but, among them will be both returning CBs. Yo: coach Pinkel returned to the SEC Championship game with only 9.5 starters back in 2013. In 2015, Pinkel will have at least 12.5 starters back, including 3-yr. starter Mauk at QB. He'll probably do wonders with that nucleus of starters.
Missouri Handicapping Negatives Prior to start of 2014 Season: Where do I start? The Tigers lost loads on both sides of the ball. On offense they lost a 1200-yard rusher and the top 3 receivers. They did have a returning starter back at the quarterback position, but Mauk threw for only a 51% completion rate.
On defense, they lost 22 sacks at the DE position, lost the #1 tackler at the LB corps, and lost both starting CBs, including a 2nd team AA!
EdgySam's 2014 Expectations for Missouri: I absolutely thought Missouri would suffer through a let-down year after their enormous 2013 successes. New and inexperienced at almost all the key positions on both offense and defense, I believed the Tigers were a team you had to look for spots to go against them.
EdgySam Summary of Missouri's 2014 Season: With the scarcity of returning starters back from '13, HC Pinkel once again proved why he is one of FBS' outstanding coaches. With a mediocre year from starting QB Matt Mauk, and inexperience almost everywhere else, Pinkel amazingly figured out a way to get his Tigers back to the SEC Championship game by going 7-1 in regular season, SEC play. I studied the stats and I still find it hard to believe he got it done. Missouri's rushing attack and pass defense were above average ( nothing spectacular ), but, his team's rushing defense was just okay, and his passing attack was below average. Coach of the Year contender status should have been given to Missou's Gary Pinkel.
EdgySam's Brief Outlook for Missouri's 2015 season: QB Mauk goes into his 3rd year as a starter; 3 starters back on the OL and experience at the RB position; only 6 starters back on defense, but, among them will be both returning CBs. Yo: coach Pinkel returned to the SEC Championship game with only 9.5 starters back in 2013. In 2015, Pinkel will have at least 12.5 starters back, including 3-yr. starter Mauk at QB. He'll probably do wonders with that nucleus of starters.
Thursday, January 22, 2015
@EdgySam Analyzes #Kentucky 2014 FBS Season
Kentucky Wildcats Handicapping Positives Prior to start of 2014 season: 8 starters back on defense, including 13 sacks returning at the DE positions and all 4 '13 d-backs starters; 4 offensive linemen returned; a Head Coach with coordinating experience and great bloodlines - Mark Stoops.
Kentucky Wildcats Handicapping Negatives Prior to start of 2014 season: The Wildcats had a great nucleus of returning starters back from 2013. The biggest negative going into 2014 was the same negative that precedes Kentucky's start of any FBS season: they play in the SEC! The Lexington-based squad always has to deal with the fact that no matter how many starters return and how good they may be perceived to be, Kentucky has to play SEC, talent-rich teams. Very tough spot for them and tough handicapping spot for guys like me.
EdgySam's Summary of Kentucky's 2014 Season: The Wildcats ran the ball fairly well this past season; they played pretty good defense vs. both the pass and the run. The biggest problem was their passing attack was abysmal. Still, Kentucky beat Vandy and South Carolina, lost to Florida in overtime, and, decisively beat every team they played outside of the SEC, except for Louisville. It's important to note that even in the Louisville loss, Kentucky played very well. Overall, not a bad season from Mark Stoops' Wildcat team.
EdgySam's Quick Outlook for Kentucky in 2015: 4 starters will return to the Wildcat O-Line; the RB and Rec positions will be experienced; two star defensive ends will be gone and only 6 starters return on defense. Here's the problem: unless the Wildcats get decent QB play from someone, they will be competitve when they play teams outside the SEC, but, be a bottom-dweller when playing in the SEC. Ahh to have Rich Brooks back.
Kentucky Wildcats Handicapping Negatives Prior to start of 2014 season: The Wildcats had a great nucleus of returning starters back from 2013. The biggest negative going into 2014 was the same negative that precedes Kentucky's start of any FBS season: they play in the SEC! The Lexington-based squad always has to deal with the fact that no matter how many starters return and how good they may be perceived to be, Kentucky has to play SEC, talent-rich teams. Very tough spot for them and tough handicapping spot for guys like me.
EdgySam's Summary of Kentucky's 2014 Season: The Wildcats ran the ball fairly well this past season; they played pretty good defense vs. both the pass and the run. The biggest problem was their passing attack was abysmal. Still, Kentucky beat Vandy and South Carolina, lost to Florida in overtime, and, decisively beat every team they played outside of the SEC, except for Louisville. It's important to note that even in the Louisville loss, Kentucky played very well. Overall, not a bad season from Mark Stoops' Wildcat team.
EdgySam's Quick Outlook for Kentucky in 2015: 4 starters will return to the Wildcat O-Line; the RB and Rec positions will be experienced; two star defensive ends will be gone and only 6 starters return on defense. Here's the problem: unless the Wildcats get decent QB play from someone, they will be competitve when they play teams outside the SEC, but, be a bottom-dweller when playing in the SEC. Ahh to have Rich Brooks back.
Wednesday, January 21, 2015
@EdgySam Summarizes #Georgia #Bulldogs Season
Georgia Bulldogs Handicapping Positives for 2014: A great running game with a senior QB in Mason; a defense that had 9 starters back on defense; an experienced coach of a very good SEC program in recently re-signed Mark Richt.
Handicapping Negatives for 2014: against the spread, coach Richt is basically unreliable; the Bulldogs lost one of their all-time quarterbacks, Aaron Murray. EdgySam is always loath to go with a team that is replacing a 4-year starter at QB.
EdgySam's 2014 Georgia summary: The Bulldogs offense was surprisingly efficient, despite the loss of QB Murray. With 9 starters back on defense, this team should have been a stronger contender for the national title. I like coach Richt, but, there always seems to be an unexplainable loss each year which dooms the Bulldogs. This year the South Carolina and Florida losses fit into that category. Admittedly, I did not predict the Gamecocks would be so beatable, but, I would guess few can understand how the Bulldogs lost to Florida by the score of 38-20. I'm still dumbfounded.
Georgia's 2015 Outlook: The Bulldogs will have a new starting quarterback, but, no matter. Richt will recruit great athletes as usual and Georgia will be a force, as usual. The big question will be the same question I've asked in past years: will Richt's Georgia team avoid those one, or two, unexplainable losses in 2015?
Handicapping Negatives for 2014: against the spread, coach Richt is basically unreliable; the Bulldogs lost one of their all-time quarterbacks, Aaron Murray. EdgySam is always loath to go with a team that is replacing a 4-year starter at QB.
EdgySam's 2014 Georgia summary: The Bulldogs offense was surprisingly efficient, despite the loss of QB Murray. With 9 starters back on defense, this team should have been a stronger contender for the national title. I like coach Richt, but, there always seems to be an unexplainable loss each year which dooms the Bulldogs. This year the South Carolina and Florida losses fit into that category. Admittedly, I did not predict the Gamecocks would be so beatable, but, I would guess few can understand how the Bulldogs lost to Florida by the score of 38-20. I'm still dumbfounded.
Georgia's 2015 Outlook: The Bulldogs will have a new starting quarterback, but, no matter. Richt will recruit great athletes as usual and Georgia will be a force, as usual. The big question will be the same question I've asked in past years: will Richt's Georgia team avoid those one, or two, unexplainable losses in 2015?
@EdgySam Summarizes 2014 FBS Season: #Florida #Gators
My goal is to summarize the 2014 seasons of as many FBS teams as I can during this off-season. I will do so from a mostly handicapping perspective. I will also offer a very preliminary outlook for each team's 2015 prospects. I hope you'll enjoy it, and I hope I have the discipline to keep it going during the year.
Let's kick it off with the Florida Gators.
Handicapping Negatives for 2014: Florida had a nice nucleus of starters back on the offense - 3.5 starters back on the OL, and all RBs returning - but, the QB play was absolutely horrible. The QB play, whether positive or negative, is the great equalizer. Florida's defense was really good. The QB play was so bad, it almost negated the positives of the Gator defense.
Handicapping Positives of 2014: The defense. EdgySam loves good defenses. Again, the problem with this team was the QB play. I got sucked in a couple times this year by picking the Gators because of their good defense. The QBing killed me, from a handicapping standpoint.
2015 Florida Outlook: Defense could be spectacular with 8 starters back. New coach McElwain comes to Gainesville with a decent offensive reputation. He did a real nice job with CSU's offense, and was an offensive coordinator under Alabama's Saban.
Looking forward to the Gators' 2015 season.
Let's kick it off with the Florida Gators.
Handicapping Negatives for 2014: Florida had a nice nucleus of starters back on the offense - 3.5 starters back on the OL, and all RBs returning - but, the QB play was absolutely horrible. The QB play, whether positive or negative, is the great equalizer. Florida's defense was really good. The QB play was so bad, it almost negated the positives of the Gator defense.
Handicapping Positives of 2014: The defense. EdgySam loves good defenses. Again, the problem with this team was the QB play. I got sucked in a couple times this year by picking the Gators because of their good defense. The QBing killed me, from a handicapping standpoint.
2015 Florida Outlook: Defense could be spectacular with 8 starters back. New coach McElwain comes to Gainesville with a decent offensive reputation. He did a real nice job with CSU's offense, and was an offensive coordinator under Alabama's Saban.
Looking forward to the Gators' 2015 season.
Friday, January 2, 2015
@EdgySam: #IowavsTenn, #ThePick
I have Iowa rated higher than Tennessee, yet, the Hawkeyes are the team getting points.
I gave out Iowa in a 1-unit play for my cleeps.
Pedestrian offenses vs. serviceable defenses led me to give out a 1/2-unit on the under in this contest.
I gave out Iowa in a 1-unit play for my cleeps.
Pedestrian offenses vs. serviceable defenses led me to give out a 1/2-unit on the under in this contest.
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