#FiftyThreeorFREE #BowlSpecial - 2015

In sports wagering circles, if you pick a certain unit to wager per game ( e.g. $20.00 unit ), if you win 52.4% of your picks over the course of time, factoring in the vig of 10%, you would break even.
Under my EdgySam "Fifty-Three or Free" Bowl Special, I have to hit 53% of my Bowl Picks. If not, like the offer states right here at collegeedge.blogspot.com, I will not get paid.
If paid by money order - I'll give you the address upon request - you'll get a complete refund. If paid by PayPal, you'll get a refund of $38.00 of the $40.00 Bowl Special Fee.
Last year, I hit 57% of my bowl picks. In 2013, I hit 56% of my bowl picks.
The Bowl Special is that simple: If I hit 53% of my picks, I get paid. If I hit 52.99% of my picks, I don't get paid. Here is the Who, What, Where, When, Why, and How of my Bowl Special. I hope you'll give it a try.

WHO: Sam Follo, alias EdgySam. Founded The College Edge 20+years ago, but, have loved handicapping college football for more than 35 years ( have every Gold Sheet going back to 1980!).
WHAT: The "Fifty-Three or Free" Bowl Special. Do you know of any other handicapper or service that has a minimal winning percentage in order to get paid?
WHERE: You can sign up right here at collegeedge.blogspot.com. I will attempt to write a synopsis of each of my bowl picks, including totals, right here. You can also enjoy some of my handicapping and wagering philosophies at www.college-edge.com & for pure enjoyment this bowl season and beyond follow me at twitter.com/@EdgySam.
WHEN: Sign up right now at this site by PayPal. If you want to pay by money order, e-mail me at sam@college-edge.com, and we'll figure something out.
WHY: I make no guarantees. I give out no locks. I work hard and get as pumped up handicapping college football as I did when I played sports. I hit 56% of my picks in the 2013 Bowl Season, 57% in last year's Bowl Season. The highlight both years were my New Year's Day performances: I went 9-1 in 2013. I went 7-3 in 2014. FINALLY, I feel I have the talent of any college football handicapper out there ( it's the only sport I handicap). Give me a chance to prove it.
HOW: I will text or e-mail you picks for each bowl game. Sometimes I work these games right up until game-time, so always be ready for a text. Picks will be released in 1/2- and 1-unit increments. In some cases, if I really like a pick, be it totals or a side, I may release a 1.5-unit recommendation.
It is my opinion, you should decide what your unit play will be for the bowl season, and stick to that unit. I'm a firm believer in keeping units the same. I do not believe in parlays, reverses, if bets, etc., unless they are made from a pure fun angle.
I'm hard-working, I love the challenge of handicapping, and I'll be honest in my dealings with you. I hope you'll give me a chance.
Let's have some fun. I promise to work hard for you. SIGN UP NOW.

#SouthernMiss vs.#WesternKentucky - #BowlSeasonFeel

What we didn't get in the Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green matchup was the big QB battle, due to an injury to Huskie QB Drew Hare. That will not happen in the Southern Miss vs. Western Kentucky matchup. This should be a great QB shootout, as the Hilltoppers' QB Doughty faces off against the Eagles' QB Mullens. Both have had all-star type years in 2015, and, as a result, this may prove to be one of the more entertaining games of the day.
I would rate WKU's Dought slightly higher, but, SoMiss probably has the better running game with Smith leading the way ( 963 yards rushing ), while WKU has lost 1500-yard rusher ( in '14 ) Leon Allen. I also believe, and my numbers back me up, that the Eagles also have the better defense, especially vs. the run.
Under my college-edge ratings, I have Southern Miss rated slightly higher than WKU, and still, the Eagles come into this CUSA championship as an underdog.
If this were bowl season, I would make this a 1-unit play.
Two great quarterbacks and 2 very good offenses lead me to believe this will most likely be a high scoring affair.
If this were bowl season, I would make this a 1/2 unit play.

#NorthernIllinois vs. #BowlingGreen. EdgySam Bowl Preview

Man, how much fun would this MAC matchup have been if QB Hare of Northern Illinois were playing tonight vs. Bowling Green? Lots of fun.
The trouble is QB Hare is out tonight, and, to make things worse for the Huskies, backup QB Graham, who has done a pretty nice job in place of Hare, is probably out as well.
I don't see how any MAC team can keep up with the high-powered offense of Bowling Green, led by all-star QB Matt Campbell, with a 3rd string QB.
It's a shame because Northern Illinois had been  decent in every other facet of the game: They run the ball well and they defend both the run and pass well. The problem is that darn QB position. Last week the Huskies were home vs. an Ohio team they should've handled, even with a 3rd string QB. They didn't.
Ohio held the Huskies to 73 yards rushing, and 21 points. That 21-26 loss to the Bobcats just illustrates how much a sub-par QB can have negative effects on all the aspects of your team.
If it was early in the week and the line was still -9, I'd take Matt Campbell and Bowling Green. The line has moved all the way to -14, and I have no comfort taking the Falcons with that high a spread. I'm letting the side go in tonight's MAC Championship.
With the present totals line of 69, these two teams, in MAC play, have gone under the total 9 times, and over 6 times. Combine that with the fact Northern Illinois does play pretty good defense, and one of tonight's two starting QBs is a 3rd stringer, Edgysam does lean in a small play to the under in tonight's Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green matchup. If this were bowl season, I would make this a 1/2 unit play on the under.

@EdgySam Sums Up the #Alabama 2014 FBS Season

Alabama Handicapping Positives Prior to Start of 2014 Season: Nick Saban; the great recruits Saban and Alabama had coming into 2014 ( the Tide's 3rd string players are better than most mid-level program's top players ); every starting RB and Rec. from '13 came back with the exception of one starter; exceptional punt- and kick-returner in Christion Jones; HC Nick Saban.

Alabama Handicapping Negatives Prior to Start of 2014 Season: Big loss of 3-year starter A.J. McCarron; No standout leader back on defense. 'Bama had a 3rd team SECer and 2nd teamer at MLB and FS, respectively. That is an unusually small amount of star, returning defenders; only 10+ starters in total returned from '13 squad; the loss of a great punter and a very good FG kicker; new O-Coor in Lane Kiffin.

EdgySam Sums Up Alabama's 2014 FBS Season: I thought at the beginning of the season that Alabama would be good simply because they have Saban as a coach and because of the great recruits Saban always gets. I did not think they would win the SEC West, and I did not think they would win the national championship. Despite the loss to Ole Miss., my confidence in that prediction started to waver as Alabama strung together seven straight wins, including three consecutive over LSU, Miss.St, and Auburn.
They eventually did make my national prediction correct when they lost to Ohio St., but, as usual, considering Saban had a new starter at QB, and a fairly inexperienced, returning defense, I thought he did a great job.As usual, every unit on the field performed way above average. Despite a good year from new QB Blake Sims, I thought it very significant that in two of his wins, vs. Arkansas and LSU, Sims did not play well, throwing for under 50% collectively, for those two games. Sims' production in those two wins was one of the major reasons I picked Ohio St. in their semi-final, national championship contest.
Saban is judged by National Championships. Lots of people probably think the Tide's HC had a disappointing '14 season. I'd disagree. EdgySam thinks Saban did a very good job this year.

EdgySam's Very Preliminary Outlook for Alabama in 2015: I'm really stepping out on a limb: The Crimson Tide will contend for the National Championship in 2015. It almost doesn't matter how many starters Saban has coming back. That speaks very clearly to the quality of the recruits Alabama has in the program.
Regardless of that perennial contention to win it all, Saban will have to decide on who the new starting QB will be, and he may have to deal with the loss, due to early departures, of star, junior RB Yeldon and junior Heisman candidate Omari Cooper. The rest of the contending teams in the FBS better hope the Tide has a hard time replacing their top QB, RB and WR because the best defense in the country may reside in Tuscaloosa in 2015. NINE starters will return from this year's defense, including both starting cornerbacks.
If Alabama comes up with a star QB next season, I'll make the Tide and Ohio St. the favorites to win it all in 2015.

@EdgySam Sums Up #Vanderbilt 2014 FBS Season

Vanderbilt Handicapping Positives Prior to Start of 2014 Season:  There were not many positives for Vandy fans to look forward to prior to start of the 2014 season. Trying hard, I was able to come up with only a couple decent positives: the #1 RB from '13, Jerron Seymour, returned ( okay he only had 700 yards rushing), 4 of the top five offensive linemen from '13 were back, and, well, the top four starters in the defensive line were seniors.

Vanderbilt Handicapping Negatives Prior to Start of 2014 Season: new freshman starter at QB; top 3 receivers gone, including #1 receiver and All-SECer Jordan Matthews( 112 catches!); only four starters back on defense, including no returning defensive backs; the loss of a HC in James Franklin who accomplished the near impossible: 24-15 record in his three years as a HC, including a stellar 25-14 record vs. the spread. For perspective, prior to Franklin's arrival, the Commodores had a 27-56 straight up record for the 7 years prior to Franklin's term as HC. I will make this point: believe it or not, despite the seemingly bad 27-56 record, the HC at the time, Bobby Johnson, did a pretty decent job at the Nashville school.

EdgySam Sums Up Vanderbilt's 2014 Season: With the loss of an outstanding coach in James Franklin, and his replacement, Derek Mason, having NO HC experience entering this 2014 campaign, things would have been grim for the Coomodores. The return of only 9 starters total from '13 would probably make things worse. They did! In my preseason notes, I wrote only 2 words which summarized succinctly my feelings for Vandy's chances in 2014: " Big Trouble." I thought the Commodores would be the worst team in the SEC. They were.
Vandy was 0-8 vs. the SEC. Collectively, the 'Dores were horrible rushing the ball, horrible passing the ball, horrible defending the rush, and horrible defending the pass. Ostensibly, Vanderbilt might be right back in the spot they held before HC Franklin came to Nashville. Will Mason, a HC with no proven track record, be able to return Vandy to the successes of the Franklin era? It will be VERY hard.

EdgySam Very Preliminary Outlook for Vanderbilt in 2015: Quarterback McCrary had a horrible year, but, he is returning and he was the 31st rated QB of his HS class. That should be a positive, right? It should help that McCrary will have eight other starters back on offense from this year's squad.
The Commodores lose most of the D-Linemen from this year's team, but, 7 of the 8 linebackers and D-Backs will return in '15.
Vandy will have a decent amount of starters back from '14, which is usually a good sign. The problem is the returning starters played horribly in '14. I have no confidence that these same starters will not be horrible again in 2015. If Franklin were still the HC, I'd be extremely confident for big things in the new year. He's a proven commodity. Is there any person reading this who has confidence that a HC with only 1 year of experience coaching in the FBS will get results from the upcoming 2015 Commodore team? Speaking only for myself: I don't.

@EdgySam Sums Up #Tennessee 2014 FBS Season

Tennessee Positives Prior to Start of 2014 Season: Returning QBs all had starting experience; I liked coach Butch Jones. He did a good job at Central Michigan and Cincinnati; all of the top receivers returned from the '13 squad; all starting defensive backs from '13 returned to the '14 team.

Tennessee Negatives Prior to Start of 2014 Season: the returning QBs from '13 all returned, but, all had bad years as starters; no full time starters returned to the O-line; lost a 1100-yard rusher from the '13 team; only ONE starter returned to front seven on defense; the Vols play in the toughest conference in the FBS - the SEC.

EdgySam Sums Up Tennessee's 2014 Season: The Vols played up to my expectations. They didn't rush the ball well; they didn't defend the rush well; they didn't pass the ball well. The only part of their game that met expectations, because of the experience at the defensive back positions, was the pass defense. In typical SEC fashion, and which further illustrates how tough the SEC is, Tennessee was 3-5 in conference play, but, were 3-1 in non-conference games. In my preseason notes, I wrote that I should be " worried about new OL, stinky QBs and no D-line. Tread carefully with Vols." Considering weaknesses that coach Jones had coming into '13, it wasn't that bad a year for the team from Knoxville.

EdgySam Very Preliminary Outlook for Tennessee in 2015: 8.5 starters return to the offense, including all of the O-Line. Eight starters return to the defense. Like Kentucky, unless the Vols get improved play from the quarterback position, it'll probably be the same old stuff for them in 2015. They'll get 2, maybe 3 wins at the most, vs. the SEC, and probably kick butt when they play teams outside of their own tough conference. I do like HC Jones a lot. With 16 starters back, he might be able step up in class in the SEC. He might. He probably won't, at least not in 2015.

@EdgySam Summarizes #SouthCarolina 2014 FBS Season

South Carolina Handicapping Positives Prior to Start of 2014 Season: 4 O-Linemen returned to start from '13; 2nd SEC RB Davis, with 1183 yards rushing in '13, returned; #1 receiver departed, but, every other significant receiver returned from '13; all LBs returned as well as starters at the non-cornerback defensive back positions; Coach Steve Spurrier!

South Carolina Handicapping Negatives Prior to Start of 2014 Season: Loss of QB Connor Shaw. He threw for 63.4% in 2013 and had an unreal 24-1 TD to Int. ratio. Wow; the loss of 3 quality D-Linemen ( #1 DC, a 3rd team AA DT, and a starting DE!); loss of both starting CBs from 2013.

EdgySam Summarizes South Carolina's 2014 Season: According to my College Edge ratings, the Gamecocks defense was horrible this year. I was surprised. Maybe I shouldn't have been. The gigantic losses in the D-Line and at the cornerback positions were right there for me to see. I ignored them, or lessened their significance probably because of my respect for the coaching ability of Spurrier. Man, was I wrong. As surprising, was the relative inefficiency of Spurrier's offense.Okay, Connor Shaw should have been hard to replace, but, QB Thompson was a senior, knew Spurrier's program and I thought he'd contribute more than he did. Also, I don't have RB Davis' final numbers, but, he underperformed dramatically. I took South Carolina in the first game of the year vs. A&M. I was surprised how they got thrashed. I shouldn't have been. For EdgySam, South Carolina was one of the big disappointments of the 2014 FBS Season!

EdgySam's Very Preliminary Outlook for South Carolina in 2015: Seven starters back on offense. The quarterback will be new, but, I'm looking forward to who will be starting. He will have to be better than this year's QB. Right?
The defense will have 8 starters back on defense, including 3 defensive linemen and both starting cornerbacks. The defense has to be better. Right?
Am I getting sucked in by my respect for the Old Ball Coach? Again?

@EdgySam Summarizes #Missouri #Wildcats 2014 FBS Season

Missouri Handicapping Positives Prior to start of 2014 Season: Honestly, the only positive I noted prior to the start of the 2014 season was the coach. Gary Pinkel is one of the outstanding coaches in all of the FBS. Did I think that would be enough to make the Tigers successful in 2014? No.

Missouri Handicapping Negatives Prior to start of 2014 Season: Where do I start? The Tigers lost loads on both sides of the ball. On offense they lost a 1200-yard rusher and the top 3 receivers. They did have a returning starter back at the quarterback position, but Mauk threw for only a 51% completion rate.
On defense, they lost 22 sacks at the DE position, lost the #1 tackler at the LB corps, and lost both starting CBs, including a 2nd team AA!

EdgySam's 2014 Expectations for Missouri: I absolutely thought Missouri would suffer through a let-down year after their enormous 2013 successes. New and inexperienced at almost all the key positions on both offense and defense, I believed the Tigers were a team you had to look for spots to go against them.

EdgySam Summary of Missouri's 2014 Season: With the scarcity of returning starters back from '13, HC Pinkel once again proved why he is one of FBS' outstanding coaches. With a mediocre year from starting QB Matt Mauk, and inexperience almost everywhere else, Pinkel amazingly figured out a way to get his Tigers back to the SEC Championship game by going 7-1 in regular season, SEC play. I studied the stats and I still find it hard to believe he got it done. Missouri's rushing attack and pass defense were above average ( nothing spectacular ), but, his team's rushing defense was just okay, and his passing attack was below average. Coach of the Year contender status should have been given to Missou's Gary Pinkel.

EdgySam's Brief Outlook for Missouri's 2015 season: QB Mauk goes into his 3rd year as a starter; 3 starters back on the OL and experience at the RB position; only 6 starters back on defense, but, among them will be both returning CBs. Yo: coach Pinkel returned to the SEC Championship game with only 9.5 starters back in 2013. In 2015, Pinkel will have at least 12.5 starters back, including 3-yr. starter Mauk at QB. He'll probably do wonders with that nucleus of starters.

@EdgySam Analyzes #Kentucky 2014 FBS Season

Kentucky Wildcats Handicapping Positives Prior to start of 2014 season: 8 starters back on defense, including 13 sacks returning at the DE positions and all 4 '13 d-backs starters; 4 offensive linemen returned; a Head Coach with coordinating experience and great bloodlines - Mark Stoops.

Kentucky Wildcats Handicapping Negatives Prior to start of 2014 season: The Wildcats had a great nucleus of returning starters back from 2013. The biggest negative going into 2014 was the same negative that precedes Kentucky's start of any FBS season: they play in the SEC! The Lexington-based squad always has to deal with the fact that no matter how many starters return and how good they may be perceived to be, Kentucky has to play SEC, talent-rich teams. Very tough spot for them and tough handicapping spot for guys like me.

EdgySam's Summary of Kentucky's 2014 Season:  The Wildcats ran the ball fairly well this past season; they played pretty good defense vs. both the pass and the run. The biggest problem was their passing attack was abysmal. Still, Kentucky beat Vandy and South Carolina, lost to Florida in overtime, and, decisively beat every team they played outside of the SEC, except for Louisville. It's important to note that even in the Louisville loss, Kentucky played very well. Overall, not a bad season from Mark Stoops' Wildcat team.

EdgySam's Quick Outlook for Kentucky in 2015: 4 starters will return to the Wildcat O-Line; the RB and Rec positions will be experienced; two star defensive ends will be gone and only 6 starters return on defense. Here's the problem: unless the Wildcats get decent QB play from someone, they will be competitve when they play teams outside the SEC, but, be a bottom-dweller when playing in the SEC. Ahh to have Rich Brooks back.

@EdgySam Summarizes #Georgia #Bulldogs Season

Georgia Bulldogs Handicapping Positives for 2014: A great running game with a senior QB in Mason; a defense that had 9 starters back on defense; an experienced coach of a very good SEC program in recently re-signed Mark Richt.

Handicapping Negatives for 2014: against the spread, coach Richt is basically unreliable; the Bulldogs lost one of their all-time quarterbacks, Aaron Murray. EdgySam is always loath to go with a team that is replacing a 4-year starter at QB.

EdgySam's 2014 Georgia summary: The Bulldogs offense was surprisingly efficient, despite the loss of QB Murray. With 9 starters back on defense, this team should have been a stronger contender for the national title. I like coach Richt, but, there always seems to be an unexplainable loss each year which dooms the Bulldogs. This year the South Carolina and Florida losses fit into that category. Admittedly, I did not predict the Gamecocks would be so beatable, but, I would guess few can understand how the Bulldogs lost to Florida by the score of 38-20. I'm still dumbfounded.

Georgia's 2015 Outlook: The Bulldogs will have a new starting quarterback, but, no matter. Richt will recruit great athletes as usual and Georgia will be a force, as usual. The big question will be the same question I've asked in past years: will Richt's Georgia team avoid those one, or two, unexplainable losses in 2015?

@EdgySam Summarizes 2014 FBS Season: #Florida #Gators

My goal is to summarize the 2014 seasons of as many FBS teams as I can during this off-season. I will do so from a mostly handicapping perspective. I will also offer a very preliminary outlook for each team's 2015 prospects. I hope you'll enjoy it, and I hope I have the discipline to keep it going during the year.
Let's kick it off with the Florida Gators.

Handicapping Negatives for 2014: Florida had a nice nucleus of starters back on the offense - 3.5 starters back on the OL, and all RBs returning - but, the QB play was absolutely horrible. The QB play, whether positive or negative, is the great equalizer. Florida's defense was really good. The QB play was so bad, it almost negated the positives of the Gator defense.

Handicapping Positives of 2014: The defense. EdgySam loves good defenses. Again, the problem with this team was the QB play. I got sucked in a couple times this year by picking the Gators because of their good defense. The QBing killed me, from a handicapping standpoint.

2015 Florida Outlook: Defense could be spectacular with 8 starters back. New coach McElwain comes to Gainesville with a decent offensive reputation. He did a real nice job with CSU's offense, and was an offensive coordinator under Alabama's Saban.
Looking forward to the Gators' 2015 season.

@EdgySam: #IowavsTenn, #ThePick

I have Iowa rated higher than Tennessee, yet, the Hawkeyes are the team getting points.
I gave out Iowa in a 1-unit play for my cleeps.

Pedestrian offenses vs. serviceable defenses led me to give out a 1/2-unit on the under in this contest.