@EdgySam: Two NightTime #Picks(one at 10:30p.m.!)

In the #Missouri vs.#SouthCarolina game, my college edge ratings will govern my selection. I believed before the season this would be a difficult year for the Tigers after such a great performance last year. They lost an experienced QB, a 1000-yard rusher, their top 3 receivers, 20+sacks in the defensive line and both cornerbacks(Gaines was a 2nd team AA!). That's too much to lose vs. a team that I think still has a chance to win the SEC East. It doesn't hurt that the Ball Coach, Steve Spurrier, is very good in the role of home favorite.
Take South Carolina

Oregon St. is 3-0, but, they've gotten their wins vs. Potland ST, Hawaii, and SDSU. None of the those teams could expose the losses the Beavers experienced from their '13 squad. Oregon St. won't run the ball vs. USC, and they don't have the weapons in the passing game to to make up the difference like they did in '13.USC will run the ball vs.OrSU, and with the loss of a 2x Pac12 CB, I believe they will pass the ball as well. Throw in the fact the Trojans were embarrassed the last time out on national TV by BC, and let's say I'm very happy the public seems to betting Oregon State.
Take the USC Trojans.

@EdgySam: #WakeForest vs. #Louisville, #ThePick

@EdgySam likes to look at bad teams as well looking for good teams. I think Wake Forest will prove to be  the worst team in the ACC, if not one of the worst teams in the FBS. The Demon Deacons only ran for 100 yards vs. Army and ran for -25 yards vs. Utah St. When Louisville stops Wake's running game, which I believe they will, they have almost no strength in their passing attack.
It will not help Wake's cause that they only have 1.5 starters back in the defensive interior. Innovative HC of Cardinals, Bobby Petrino, will exploit the Demon Deacons' weaknesses.
Not worried about the spread. Take Louisville.

@EdgySam: #Northwestern vs. #PSU, The Pick

It's about time #Northwestern steps up and plays up to the level I thought they would play at before the season started. I have the Wildcats rated higher than the Nits, and they come into the Big 10 contest as an underdog, a nice situation for EdgySam.
NW has more starters back than PSU, including an experienced QB, all of their '13 O-Line starters and an experienced defense, highlighted by all four starters back in the defensive backfield.
Nice final touch is HC Fitzgerald rises to occasion in road games, posting a winning record vs. spread as a road underdog.
In our only Noon play, take Northwestern.

#FresnoState vs. #NewMexico: The Pick

New Mexico gave up 7.5 y.p.c. and 330 yards rushing vs. UTEP. Wow. ASU got 423 yards rushing vs. Lobos at 8.8 y.p.c., and gave up 35 points to New Mexico St in a 3-point win. That is a horrible defense.
Fresno St. has 3 big losses as well, but, at least they lost to USC, Utah, and Nebraska, three good programs.
The Bulldogs have a new QB this year, after losing the spectacular Derek Carr, but the replacement is an experienced transfer from Duke. They have a solid trio of RBs back from last year, and 8.5 starters back from '13 defense.
The higher rated team, according to my CollegeEdge ratings, and the team with the winning history is the pick.
Take Fresno State Bulldogs

#UCLA vs. #ASU: The Pick

UCLA may not have Hundley at QB, but, the big loss in this game is the loss of ASU's returning QB, Taylor Kelly. His loss may be bigger tonight because of the paucity of returning starters from the Sun Devil squad. His experience was key with the loss of so many '13 starters.
In addition to the loss of QB Kelly, ASU has only 2 starters back on defense! HC Graham is a very good coach, but, I feel he has too much to overcome in what is somewhat of a revenge game for the Bruins( ASU beat UCLA in Rose Bowl last year, 38-33).
Believe it, or not, I'd like to see Hundley play, but, not overly concerned if he does not play.
UCLA is the pick. In a smaller play, take the under in the same game.

#TexasTech vs. #OklahomaState: The Pick

No letdown factor tonight, so #Edgysam goes to his CollegeEdge ratings for support.
Texas Tech has the returning starter strength on offense, with QB Webb, almost a completely intact O-Line back and experience at both the RB and Receiver positions. If I have trouble tonight with the Red Raiders it will be because of their questionable defense.
What is heartening, if, like me, you are worried about the TT defense, is Oklahoma St. has almost no returning experience on offense. They had a little experience back at QB in Walsh, but, the Cowboys lost him to a season-ending injury. His replacement, Daxx Garman, wasn't even on the QB radar in 2013.
HC Gundy is one of the great spread coaches in the FBS, but, EdgySam, yours truly, has this game very closely contested, according to my team ratings.
Take Texas Tech, and buy the 1/2 pt if the spread is 14.

@EdgySam: Three Picks at 8:00p.m.

Miami is the higher rated team according to my CollegeEdge ratings and they are the underdog in their game vs. Nebraska. Take Miami and hope RB Duke Johnson is the major contributor for the 'Canes.

In two smaller plays, yes, I believe the loss of QB Winston makes a difference in tonight's game. Clemson's defense will cause trouble for FSU's new QB Maguire. Not sure Clemson will win, but, take Tigers in a low scoring, close game.
Take Clemson and the under in the same game.

@EdgySam Picks in the Early #FBS Games

Maryland over Syracuse: The Terps are the higher rated team, and, as opposed to their first two games, come into this contest vs. Syracuse as an underdog. If you follow me and the CollegeEdge, you know I look for spots where the higher rated team comes into game as a dog. Orange are 2-0. They have their two wins vs. Villanova and Central Michigan. First tough matchup of the year for the home team.
Take Maryland. If spread is at +2.5, I would buy the .5 point.

Two smaller plays: Georgia over Troy. Troy lost a good QB from '13 squad. Freshman starts this year. Bulldogs will romp

Virginia Tech over Georgia Tech: Two of my favorite coaches go against each other. This is a CollegeEdge ratings pick. I have the Hokies rated considerably higher than the Yellow Jackets. VT has the better of the new QBs and they also have a quality I always look for when a defending the option: experience at the D-Back position. Hokies have all 4 starters back at the D-Back position. I have a tremendous amount of respect for G.T. coach Paul Johnson. He's the main reason I didn't put this pick in the Maryland category.

@Edgysam Picks: #UConn vs. #USF

This is a night where @edgysam will turn to his CollegeEdge ratings for a selection.
I have the home team Bulls as the higher rated team. According to my ratings, not knowing anything about how either team has played, I would have made USF a minimum of a 7-point favorite in the game. The problem is I do know how both teams have played, and both teams have been bad so far. I completely understand how this line could open at USF -4 and, so far, drop to -1.
But, USF does have an experienced offensive line(all 5 starters back), and a defense that at least showed some life vs. Maryland in a 17-24 loss. Plus, USF is home in the only game on the FBS schedule. The Bulls should be relatively pumped up.
Take USF, and in a smaller play, take the under in the same game.

@Edgysam Kicks Butt on Weeknights - Why?

Over the years, @Edgysam and the College Edge have had a lot of success handicapping the weeknight FBS schedule. Over those same years, I've tried to figure out why. One of the reasons was the simple fact the weeknight schedule includes only one or two games. It's nice to narrow your focus on only two to four teams.
My picks over this past weekend have opened my handicapping eyes to a more important reason why I do a pretty good job on weeknight games. I also think this sort of revelation will help me with weekend games as well.
I lost two picks this past weekend where the teams I selected were the much higher rated teams under my College Edge ratings: Virginia Tech and USC. The problem in both games, a problem I acknowledged, was both teams were coming off of gigantic wins the prior week: the Hokies over Ohio St.; the Trojans over Stanford. Any rational handicapper had to look at these two sides and seriously consider there might be a  letdown. I thought the ratings edges would overcome the letdown possibilities. I was wrong.
So, how did those two bad losses open my eyes to my Thursday successes and possibly help me in my future handicapping?
Weeknight games on ESPN or FoxSports are the highlight games of that night. Those college kids are the focal point of the entire nation. In some cases(like last week's game between LaTech and North Texas), it might be one of the only times any of these players will ever experience that kind of exposure.
The chances of a letdown on this national stage are far less likely than they would be on a schedule-crowded Saturday. In my opinion, the College Edge ratings I've developed over the years are more likely to hold true on weeknights. Letdowns are less likely to have an effect on those games.
On crowded weekend schedules, I have always considered intangibles like the letdown possibility, Henceforth, I need to give that even more consideration.

@EdgySam Gives Out His 12:00p.m. Picks

Last week I didn't like any Noon-starting games, this week, I like FIVE. Well, the excitement starts early today. Here are my five plays:
Indiana: time to put up, or shut up. Lots of starters back, including good, experienced QBs
Maryland: tough matchup vs. West Virginia, but, Terps have loads of starters back, too.
UCF: I think Missouri is overrated.
Virginia: I have them rated higher than the favored team in this game.
Virginia Tech: East Carolina scary enough that I don't expect a letdown from the Ohio St. conquerors.

@EdgySam asks: Is #Baylor Spread Too High?

Probably.
I am no longer afraid of big spreads. There was a time when I'd automatically eliminate games with spreads of -20 or higher. What the hell was I thinking? As I wrote earlier this week, there are bargains to be found at every spread level.
Baylor will score tonight, and score a lot. Head Coach Art Briles is merciless as far as running up the score. They are facing a Buffalo defense, which lost one of the best defenders in all of college football last year, #1 DC, LB Khalil Mack, and which has only 4 total starters back on defense.
What's making me hesitant to give out Baylor (for now) is the fact Buffalo is home, and the Bulls have an experienced returning QB in Joe Liciata and an experienced offensive line. I am also a little alarmed by the 3-4 injuries in the wide receiver corps, including the loss of 3rd AA wr Antwan Goodley( of course, Bulls defense might not be able to do anything about those string of injuries).
Right now, edgysam thinks this line might be a little too high, but, I have plenty of time to reconsider.

#EdgySam Pick in #LaTech vs. #NorthTexas #AAC Game

@Edgysam gets a #GoldSheet every week. I have a library of them going back to 1980! I have the utmost respect for the knowledge the Gold Sheet imparts. I don't use their weekly picks for my picks, but, I read everything I can on their sheets to see if they write about something I may have missed.
Tonight, the sheet gave me two things to consider I missed: North Texas' success, recently, at home vs. the spread, and, the fact Louisiana Tech is playing their third consecutive road game in the short span of 12 days, an unusual way to start a new season.
Those facts, plus the large drop from +6.5 to +3, will keep me from making Louisiana Tech a major play. I have both teams' college edge ratings almost exactly the same.
The Gold Sheet weekly publication picked North Texas. My major disagreement with that pick was the new, efficient QB play of LaTech's Cody Sokol. He is the 56th rated QB coming out of his HS class, and an Iowa transfer. This type of highly rated QB rarely plays on a program like LaTech's. The quality of QB has improved immeasurably from '13! The Gold Sheet never mentioned Sokol in its synopsis.
Take Louisiana Tech Bulldogs and keep an eye out for a very special talent at RB: Kenneth Dixon