I thought the line on the Notre Dame- Oklahoma game was just about where it should've been. The line that attracted my attention was the under in the game. Like most observers, I see the Irish as a very strong defensive team with questions on offense. Like most observers, I went into research on the Sooners thinking they had a powerful offense and good defense. What surprised me were the Okla. stats in the KSU and Texas Tech games. In both games, they gained only 121 yards on the ground, or less, and, in the former game, they scored only 19 points. I had little doubt the Irish defense was just as good as KSU's , and much better than Texas Tech's.
I also had little doubt the Oklahoma defense, with 7.5 returning starters, and a strong defensive backfield, could hold the very average Irish offense in check.
The Irish did their job, playing well, defensively, against the Sooner offense. What almost cost me a loss in the pick was how successfully the Irish moved the ball vs.Stoops' defense.Thank goodness the Irish only allowed 13 points versus the QB Landry Jones-led offense. It was less than what I expected Okla. would score and resulted in our final win of a very good day!
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
#HandicappingSeminar: UCF over Marshall, A Win
The College Edge pick of UCF over Marshall was my most confident pick of the day. UCF is one of the traditional top teams in the CUSA. They were also rated considerably higher than Marshall according to my College Edge team ratings, and, still, the line on the game was dropping( I got the line at UCF -1). I love it when the public is against me, as they were in this contest.
I really like Marshall this year, and I've been really impressed with the play of Thundering Herd QB Cato.BUT, the public is easily taken by a team that is playing well, particularly a team that isn't used to playing that way.
The reality was Marshall was playing a team in UCF that has a great coach in O'Leary,a very good nucleus of returning starters from the 2011 squad( 15 returnees), and a proven pedigree. My confident pick turned into an easy win as UCF dominated in a 54-17 win.
I really like Marshall this year, and I've been really impressed with the play of Thundering Herd QB Cato.BUT, the public is easily taken by a team that is playing well, particularly a team that isn't used to playing that way.
The reality was Marshall was playing a team in UCF that has a great coach in O'Leary,a very good nucleus of returning starters from the 2011 squad( 15 returnees), and a proven pedigree. My confident pick turned into an easy win as UCF dominated in a 54-17 win.
#HandicappingSeminar:OSU-PSU under, A Loss
In our only loss of the day, we gave out the under in the OSU-PSU, Ineligibl Bowl. Call me a non-believer in QB McGloin of PSU. I just didn't think the Nits QB would move the ball successfully against an Ohio St. team that, admittedly hasn't played that well on defense this year, but, still, has 9 starters back from the 2011 team.
On Ohio St.'s offensive side of the ball, my hope was QB Miller, coming off a mild concussion in the Purdue game, would helm a conservative game plan that would keep hits to his body at a rarity. I was wrong. Miller played a great game, and, threw our under play into diarray. It resulted in our only losing pick of the day.
On Ohio St.'s offensive side of the ball, my hope was QB Miller, coming off a mild concussion in the Purdue game, would helm a conservative game plan that would keep hits to his body at a rarity. I was wrong. Miller played a great game, and, threw our under play into diarray. It resulted in our only losing pick of the day.
#HandicappingSeminar:UCLA over ASU, A Win
I picked UCLA over ASU for one major reason: yours truly, edgysam, had the Bruins rated higher than the Sun Devils under my College Edge team ratings, and those same Bruins came into the game as an underdog! I'm not absolutely married to that type of situation, but, it takes a lot to convince me to go against it. Admittedly, I was fearful that ASU was home, that they were getting good play from the quarterback position, and despite the fact I don't personally like coach Graham, the home team had a darn good coach at the helm.
In the end that wasn't enough to deter me from the Bruins pick. Despite an early 0-14 deficit, and the feeling of impending (football) doom, the Bruins got fantastic games from QB Hundley and RB Franklin, and the College Edge got the cover!
In the end that wasn't enough to deter me from the Bruins pick. Despite an early 0-14 deficit, and the feeling of impending (football) doom, the Bruins got fantastic games from QB Hundley and RB Franklin, and the College Edge got the cover!
#HandicappingSeminar: N.Caro.over NCSU, A Win
North Carolina was the College Edge pick over North Carolina State in the last of our early Saturday plays. I picked the Tar Heels for a couple of major reasons: I had them rated higher than the Wolfpack under my College Edge team ratings, and I believed the Heels would be motivated to play hard following their embarrassing loss to in-state rival, Duke, the previous week.
In picking N.C., I was going against one of my favorite coaches, Tom O'Brien, who just so happens to be one of the best coaches in the FBS as a road underdog.
My fears were justified. NCSU played a very good game on the road, and, there is no way I deserved to get the cover in this ACC matchup. N.C. scored on a punt return with 13 seconds left, and, then, muffed the extra point snap, but, the holder picked up the loose football and threw a 2-point play in desperation!
Was I lucky? Yes. Am I apologetic? Definitely not. I don't cry when I lose these type of games(okay, maybe I cry for a little while), and my happiness is always tempered by the fact luck can change in an instant!
In picking N.C., I was going against one of my favorite coaches, Tom O'Brien, who just so happens to be one of the best coaches in the FBS as a road underdog.
My fears were justified. NCSU played a very good game on the road, and, there is no way I deserved to get the cover in this ACC matchup. N.C. scored on a punt return with 13 seconds left, and, then, muffed the extra point snap, but, the holder picked up the loose football and threw a 2-point play in desperation!
Was I lucky? Yes. Am I apologetic? Definitely not. I don't cry when I lose these type of games(okay, maybe I cry for a little while), and my happiness is always tempered by the fact luck can change in an instant!
#HandicappingSeminar: Ky-Missouri Under, A Win
Edgysam gave out the under in the Kentucky - Missouri contest primarily because of the inexperience at the quarterback position for both the Wildcats and Tigers. Each team's starting QB was injured and not scheduled to play. The Kentucky injury was not that influential in my thinking, but, the injury to QB Franklin of Missou was very important in almost sealing the deal for the under pick. The junior starter is a threat as both a runner and passer, and had a very good year in 2011. Injuries to contributing running backs for both teams absolutely clinched the deal for the under pick.
A turnover for a TD put the under in doubt, but, woeful passing stats for both teams( Kentucky threw for 78 yards in the game, Missouri for 87) helped the College Edge, and our cleeps, get an under cover.
A turnover for a TD put the under in doubt, but, woeful passing stats for both teams( Kentucky threw for 78 yards in the game, Missouri for 87) helped the College Edge, and our cleeps, get an under cover.
#HandicappingSeminar:Tenn-S.Caro. under, A Win
The College Edge gave out the over in the Tennessee-South Carolina game, and the decision was based mostly on the Vols' stats. They scored 44, 20 and 35 points, respectively, against good defenses like Georgia, Florida and N.C.St. Conversely, the Vol defense has been pretty bad this year, playing well against neither the run or the pass.
Luckily, this game had 42 points scored by halftime, and was put easily into the win column.
Luckily, this game had 42 points scored by halftime, and was put easily into the win column.
#HandicappingSeminar: Cincy vs. Louisville, A Push
Louisville's pick was hugely based on the College Edge ratings. The Cardinals' edge in returning starters, experienced quarterback( Bridgewater over Legaux) and home field, on a Thursday night, featured ESPN game, gave the Charlie Strong-coached team a decided edge in the eyes of edgysam. The fact Cincy played an unbelievably easy schedule prior to the Louisville game - Delaware St., Miami,Oh, Fordham, Toledo- led me to believe the Bearcats were not ready to play a team that was superior to them and, on top of that was more battle-tested. I was wrong.
Cincy played a tough game( Bearcats outgained their Big East opponent on the ground by 196 to 108), and had every right to win the game. I was very lucky to get a push in the game, and was grateful I decided, before the season started, I would buy a 1/2 point when the spread is near important numbers like 3, 7, 10, etc. My game-time line was -3.5 points.
Oh, yeah, by the way, my power did go down for 16 hours.
Cincy played a tough game( Bearcats outgained their Big East opponent on the ground by 196 to 108), and had every right to win the game. I was very lucky to get a push in the game, and was grateful I decided, before the season started, I would buy a 1/2 point when the spread is near important numbers like 3, 7, 10, etc. My game-time line was -3.5 points.
Oh, yeah, by the way, my power did go down for 16 hours.
Monday, October 29, 2012
#HandicappingSeminar: Nevada-AirForce, A Losing Pick
In the Nevada-Air Force game, I had the Wolfpack rated higher than the Falcons, and the stats seemed to back up my ratings. Nevada's offensive stats were sterling going into the MWC matchup, and I didn't envision any way Air Force's inexperienced defense could stop coach Chris Ault's vaunted Pistol offense. Hey, on top of that QB Fajardo was returning from an injury. Man, was I wrong!
I got my butt kicked because the Falcons' own vaunted offense, the legendary, service academy option, destroyed Nevada's defense when they gained over 475 yards on the ground, on 82 carries, and, get this, an un-service academy-like, 139 yards in the air.That's over 600 yards of total offense.
A lesson re-learned: never under estimate the ability of a service academy to rip to shreds a defense that doesn't know how to defend the option.
I wish I would've won my Nevada pick, but, I never cease to be proud when the service academy teams kick butt. I love the service academy teams!
I got my butt kicked because the Falcons' own vaunted offense, the legendary, service academy option, destroyed Nevada's defense when they gained over 475 yards on the ground, on 82 carries, and, get this, an un-service academy-like, 139 yards in the air.That's over 600 yards of total offense.
A lesson re-learned: never under estimate the ability of a service academy to rip to shreds a defense that doesn't know how to defend the option.
I wish I would've won my Nevada pick, but, I never cease to be proud when the service academy teams kick butt. I love the service academy teams!
#HandicappingSeminar: ArkSt-La.: Losing Pick
I gave out Louisiana, Lafayette over Arkansas St. in my first pick of the week. Since I'm fairly new to the Sun Belt Conference, my College Edge team ratings carry on even more importance. In this contest, I had La. rated higher than Ark.St. by a considerable amount in their in-conference game. In the stats I had updated on both teams, La. had played much better, according to the stats, corroborating their status as the higher rated team. My pick seemed to be pretty justified, but, the result was quite different. My La. pick went down in flames.
One of my major takes on the game wasn't so much that I lost what I thought was a pretty solid pick. That happens all the time. What I will be more aware of, in terms of Ark.St, is how well new coach Gus Malzahn performs in his new role as a head coach. He was innovative as an Offensive Coordinator(Auburn's O-Coor during championship year), and that may carry over to his new role. Malzahn may be a head coach worth investing in in the future. Come to think of it, this Ark.St loss may have been productive for me than I thought. You never have enough great college football coaches!
One of my major takes on the game wasn't so much that I lost what I thought was a pretty solid pick. That happens all the time. What I will be more aware of, in terms of Ark.St, is how well new coach Gus Malzahn performs in his new role as a head coach. He was innovative as an Offensive Coordinator(Auburn's O-Coor during championship year), and that may carry over to his new role. Malzahn may be a head coach worth investing in in the future. Come to think of it, this Ark.St loss may have been productive for me than I thought. You never have enough great college football coaches!
Friday, October 26, 2012
#Clemson - #WakeForest Decision
Here was the decision I was confronted with in this game. Do I go with the history of Wake coach Jim Grobe, who was a sensational 18-9 in home dog situations, or go with the present reality of a Clemson offense that had stars at every offensive category, and has shown it can score proficiently.
Despite an often poor defense, I just didn't think Wake could keep up with Tiger scoring machine. They couldn't.
Despite an often poor defense, I just didn't think Wake could keep up with Tiger scoring machine. They couldn't.
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
#CollegeEdge Picks in La.- No.Texas Game
Overwhelming amount of returning starters on both teams return to the offensive sides of the ball. Most impressive are the 8 offensive linemen that return as starters from the La. and North Texas. Each defense, on the other hand returns only 4 and 5 starters, respectively, from the '11 teams.
Over the total was my recommendation to my cleeps.
My respect for North Texas coach Dan McCarney, formerly of ISU, makes for a slight lean to North Texas. No recommendation for my cleeps, but, a small lean to the Mean Green.
Over the total was my recommendation to my cleeps.
My respect for North Texas coach Dan McCarney, formerly of ISU, makes for a slight lean to North Texas. No recommendation for my cleeps, but, a small lean to the Mean Green.
Friday, October 12, 2012
#CollegeEdge Works for The #Cleeps: Navy vs. C.Mich
Central Michigan and the over in the same game are the initial picks for my 2012 cleeps! Can I top my 46-17, 2011 record?
Do you know why I couldn't wait for this game? Other than the fact I look forward to every college football game, I love watching option football, and how it's run so well by the service academies.
Do you know why I couldn't wait for this game? Other than the fact I look forward to every college football game, I love watching option football, and how it's run so well by the service academies.
Wednesday, October 10, 2012
#TheCollegeEdge 2012 #CollegeFootballOffer
My brother did another great job getting the 2012 College Football Offer posted at collegeedge.blogspot.com, and I'm proud to announce it now!
The College Edge is offering all weekday and weeknight recommendations through the end of the FBS regular season( includes my second favorite college football day of the year, Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving); all games that are played on Saturdays, through the end of the regular season, and that have start times between 12:00p.m. - 6:00p.m., will continue to be complimentary; all games that are played on Saturdays, through the end of the regular season, that have start times between 6:01p.m., or later, will now be included in our offer; if a game is played on Sundays during balance of regular season, it will be included in our offer.
Yo, Floyd Mayweather, believe it or not, after an unbelievable 2011 record of 46-17 for my valued customers, the College Edge College Football Offer for the balance of the FBS season: only $40.00 (for an additional $10.00, you'll get Greg's and Rich's MLB Playoffs and NFL regular season picks)!!! If you take a look over at the side of this article, you'll see you can sign up right now by credit card through PayPal.
I thought it might be a good idea to let you know what I've done to prepare myself for what I hope is another great year for what I proudly call my "cleeps"( clients).
My work started around July 1st, when I received my college football magazines. As I have done for at least the last 30+ years, I bought my 200 page, bindered notebook, and proceeded to spend the summer working the College Edge team ratings on nearly all Division 1, FBS teams(approximately 115). I average about 40 minutes per team, and these are the categories of each team I list, and put a point value on: coaching staff, returning starters, quarterback, offensive line, running backs, receivers, defensive line, linebackers, defensive backs, corner backs, lettermen, special teams. I put my own point value on each of these categories, and after factoring in things like home or away, records against the spread, conference records, etc., the College Edge comes up with the most important part of the handicapping experience: the College Edge Team Ratings!
What you have just read is what I do prior to the season starting. Those team ratings change almost weekly during the season. They do so because from the first week I log each team's stats, handwritten in my 200 page notebook( oh yeah, in recent years I've added a 100 page Temple notebook as well). I also check daily the injury reports for all of the FBS teams. If a team's rushing stats don't meet expectations, for example, the ratings are adjusted; if a team has any significant injury, the ratings are adjusted. Each week will probably bring some adjustment to every team's rating. It is truly a weekly challenge.
All this prepares me for the most important aspect of handicapping: putting myself in the best position to give out good recommendations. I can't guarantee winners, but, I do promise I'll do everything in my power to pick winners. I hope you'll consider joining our College Edge College Football Offer.
E-mail: sam@college-edge.com
Phone: 267-752-3343(EDGE)
I plan to give out my picks by text, e-mail, and phone. If you can recommend another way of giving out the recommendations, let me know. Thank You. Sam
The College Edge is offering all weekday and weeknight recommendations through the end of the FBS regular season( includes my second favorite college football day of the year, Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving); all games that are played on Saturdays, through the end of the regular season, and that have start times between 12:00p.m. - 6:00p.m., will continue to be complimentary; all games that are played on Saturdays, through the end of the regular season, that have start times between 6:01p.m., or later, will now be included in our offer; if a game is played on Sundays during balance of regular season, it will be included in our offer.
Yo, Floyd Mayweather, believe it or not, after an unbelievable 2011 record of 46-17 for my valued customers, the College Edge College Football Offer for the balance of the FBS season: only $40.00 (for an additional $10.00, you'll get Greg's and Rich's MLB Playoffs and NFL regular season picks)!!! If you take a look over at the side of this article, you'll see you can sign up right now by credit card through PayPal.
I thought it might be a good idea to let you know what I've done to prepare myself for what I hope is another great year for what I proudly call my "cleeps"( clients).
My work started around July 1st, when I received my college football magazines. As I have done for at least the last 30+ years, I bought my 200 page, bindered notebook, and proceeded to spend the summer working the College Edge team ratings on nearly all Division 1, FBS teams(approximately 115). I average about 40 minutes per team, and these are the categories of each team I list, and put a point value on: coaching staff, returning starters, quarterback, offensive line, running backs, receivers, defensive line, linebackers, defensive backs, corner backs, lettermen, special teams. I put my own point value on each of these categories, and after factoring in things like home or away, records against the spread, conference records, etc., the College Edge comes up with the most important part of the handicapping experience: the College Edge Team Ratings!
What you have just read is what I do prior to the season starting. Those team ratings change almost weekly during the season. They do so because from the first week I log each team's stats, handwritten in my 200 page notebook( oh yeah, in recent years I've added a 100 page Temple notebook as well). I also check daily the injury reports for all of the FBS teams. If a team's rushing stats don't meet expectations, for example, the ratings are adjusted; if a team has any significant injury, the ratings are adjusted. Each week will probably bring some adjustment to every team's rating. It is truly a weekly challenge.
All this prepares me for the most important aspect of handicapping: putting myself in the best position to give out good recommendations. I can't guarantee winners, but, I do promise I'll do everything in my power to pick winners. I hope you'll consider joining our College Edge College Football Offer.
E-mail: sam@college-edge.com
Phone: 267-752-3343(EDGE)
I plan to give out my picks by text, e-mail, and phone. If you can recommend another way of giving out the recommendations, let me know. Thank You. Sam
Friday, October 5, 2012
#CollegeEdge Recommendations: Utah St vs. BYU
Utah St gave up less than 3.5 yards per carry to both Utah and Wisconsin. With BYU's leading rusher from '11 out ( M. Alisa), and the Cougars starting a freshman at QB, I believe the Aggies can continue to play the tough defense they've played to date. USU decent on offense, but, BYU plays good, consistent defense.
Consequently, UNDER THE TOTALS IS THE RECOMMENDATION.
USU has the better QB in Keeton vs. Hill; they may have the slightly better running game; BYU has the better defense, but, USU has shown they are not intimidated by these bigger programs, and I don't believe BYU has the diversity in offense to cause the Aggies a lot of defensive problems. Believe it, or, not, USU seems like the obvious pick, but, sometimes the obvious pick is the right pick.
Utah St. Aggies is the recommendation, and yes, if line is +6.5, I would buy the .5 point.
Consequently, UNDER THE TOTALS IS THE RECOMMENDATION.
USU has the better QB in Keeton vs. Hill; they may have the slightly better running game; BYU has the better defense, but, USU has shown they are not intimidated by these bigger programs, and I don't believe BYU has the diversity in offense to cause the Aggies a lot of defensive problems. Believe it, or, not, USU seems like the obvious pick, but, sometimes the obvious pick is the right pick.
Utah St. Aggies is the recommendation, and yes, if line is +6.5, I would buy the .5 point.
#CollegeEdge Recommendation: Pitt vs. Syracuse
I have a feel that Pitt has the better team, but, I have the Orange rated higher under my College Edge team ratings, so, I will let a side go in the game.
Pitt has experience and talent at every offensive position, including a possible 2 running backs who can gain 1000 yards this year. Syracuse has given up 42 points to both Northwestern and USC.
I don't think Piit's defense is that strong and Syracuse has shown they can score with the experience at QB in Ryan Nassib.
The recommendation: Over the totals in the Pitt/Syracuse contest.
Pitt has experience and talent at every offensive position, including a possible 2 running backs who can gain 1000 yards this year. Syracuse has given up 42 points to both Northwestern and USC.
I don't think Piit's defense is that strong and Syracuse has shown they can score with the experience at QB in Ryan Nassib.
The recommendation: Over the totals in the Pitt/Syracuse contest.
Anatomy of a Handicapped Game,Ark.St - FIU: The Result
I had FIU rated a lot higher than Arkansas St. When I have a team rated a lot higher than another team, and that team comes into a game as an underdog, and then that team LOSES, I still, after all these years, am amazed. It forces you to look at the stats from the game right away and try to understand why you were so wrong. I did that with last night's game.
It turns out the stats in the game were pretty similar for both teams. ArkSt gained 198 yards on the ground, FIU, 188. ASU gained 223 yards in the air(65%), FIU gained 153 yards in the air(61%). As is usually the case, when the stats don't match the score, the next place to look is in the turnover department. This is where FIU probably cost itself( and edgySam) any chance to win and cover.
The Golden Panthers gave up two interceptions which led directly to ASU touchdowns. The Red Wolves had no turnovers in the game!
I will write here that my biggest fear in the game was experience at the QB position(senior starter)for ASU, and inexperience at the QB position(freshman starter) for FIU. My fears appeared to be justified. For the record: I accepted the inexperience of freshman QB Hilliard, but, still concluded that the rest of the team was so much stronger than their opponent, that a recommendation would still be in order. I WAS WRONG!
I guess it helped confirm my belief that, other than the head coach, the most important position on the field is the quarterback.
It turns out the stats in the game were pretty similar for both teams. ArkSt gained 198 yards on the ground, FIU, 188. ASU gained 223 yards in the air(65%), FIU gained 153 yards in the air(61%). As is usually the case, when the stats don't match the score, the next place to look is in the turnover department. This is where FIU probably cost itself( and edgySam) any chance to win and cover.
The Golden Panthers gave up two interceptions which led directly to ASU touchdowns. The Red Wolves had no turnovers in the game!
I will write here that my biggest fear in the game was experience at the QB position(senior starter)for ASU, and inexperience at the QB position(freshman starter) for FIU. My fears appeared to be justified. For the record: I accepted the inexperience of freshman QB Hilliard, but, still concluded that the rest of the team was so much stronger than their opponent, that a recommendation would still be in order. I WAS WRONG!
I guess it helped confirm my belief that, other than the head coach, the most important position on the field is the quarterback.
Thursday, October 4, 2012
East Carolina vs. UCF: The Recommendation
UCF is the higher rated team by a good margin under my College Edge ratings...UCF is a home favorite, and coach O'Leary has been very good in that role since he's been at UCF(18-10)...UCF is also outstanding under coach O'Leary vs. conference teams( 39-27)... it also doesn't hurt that UCF is coming off a loss to Missouri and are in a revenge situation, having lost to E.C. last year...Yo, and the line's dropping...
The Recommendation: UCF Knights
The Recommendation: UCF Knights
Anatomy of a Handicapped Game, Ark.St-FIU: The Recommendation
FIU has the theoretically, much better defense...they have had time to adjust to the fact a freshman, albeit fairly talented one, is starting at QB...they have a 1100 yard-rusher from last year to control the clock and running game...Ark.St has a decent QB, but, a defense that should be extremely porous, considering the lack of experience on that side of the ball.
I got burned on Buffalo when I went with the higher rated underdog a couple of weeks back. I expect to get my payback tonight, as once again I go with the higher rated team that's home, coming into this game as the underdog.
The well coached FIU Golden Panthers are tonight's Sun Belt recommendation!
I got burned on Buffalo when I went with the higher rated underdog a couple of weeks back. I expect to get my payback tonight, as once again I go with the higher rated team that's home, coming into this game as the underdog.
The well coached FIU Golden Panthers are tonight's Sun Belt recommendation!
Anatomy of a Handicapped Game, Ark.St vs. FIU: Part III
Arkansas St.: This is what I think of the RedWolves after updating their stats, injury reports and conference record. They have a good quarterback, decent rushers, decent o-linemen, and an above average( for the Sun Belt) receiving corps.
By everything I've researched, their tremendous losses on defense should lead to a sub-par unit on that side of the ball.
The x-factor is head coach Gus Malzahn. It's his first year as a head coach. So, do I rate him as such, or, do I give him extra points for being an offensive innovator?
FIU: I think FIU should be able to run the ball tonight against a porous defense, but, I think the pass offense should be a little restricted since a freshman is starting tonight at QB. O-line should be above average(for a Sun Belt team) and they do have a serviceable receiving unit.
Theoretically, with all of the Golden Panther starters returning from last year's team, the defense should be the strength of the team. BUT, that loss 48-20 loss to La. is a pretty scary score and will keep me in thought a little longer than I might otherwise be. Why?
I completed my College Edge ratings on both Ark.St and FIU, and I have FIU as the higher rated team by a considerable margin. FIU is the surprising underdog, even though they are home, and the line keeps moving in Ark.St's direction.
There will be a recommendation on this game. Look for that pick at 7:00p.m.!
By everything I've researched, their tremendous losses on defense should lead to a sub-par unit on that side of the ball.
The x-factor is head coach Gus Malzahn. It's his first year as a head coach. So, do I rate him as such, or, do I give him extra points for being an offensive innovator?
FIU: I think FIU should be able to run the ball tonight against a porous defense, but, I think the pass offense should be a little restricted since a freshman is starting tonight at QB. O-line should be above average(for a Sun Belt team) and they do have a serviceable receiving unit.
Theoretically, with all of the Golden Panther starters returning from last year's team, the defense should be the strength of the team. BUT, that loss 48-20 loss to La. is a pretty scary score and will keep me in thought a little longer than I might otherwise be. Why?
I completed my College Edge ratings on both Ark.St and FIU, and I have FIU as the higher rated team by a considerable margin. FIU is the surprising underdog, even though they are home, and the line keeps moving in Ark.St's direction.
There will be a recommendation on this game. Look for that pick at 7:00p.m.!
Anatomy of a Handicapped Game, ArkSt vs. FIU: Part II
In contrast to the new coach, Malzahn, of Ark.St, coach Mario Cristobal of FIU has the supposed experience edge. He's in his 6th year with the Golden Panthers.
My early impressions of FIU's team: offense in flux, defense should be strong.
The team looked relatively strong on offense with experience at every spot on that side of the ball, including 1200 yard-rusher Kedrick Rhodes. Here's the problem: designated starter at QB, Jake Medlock, is hurt. Now, Medlock isn't a returning starter from the '11 team, and he's only a sophomore, so he shouldn't be that hard to replace. His replacement is a freshman( EJ Hilliard), so that will be a big factor when I make my final decision tomorrow.
FIU has a large amount of starters back on defense(9.8), and the good point is last year's Panther defense, with most of these same players, was a very good one. Here is my challenge. FIU is 1-4 going into this game, which is okay since they did play UCF, Louisville, and Duke. The game that is making this whole endeavor challenging is their loss to Louisiana by the surprising score of 48-20! That's a pretty good butt-kicking, and that game will force me to take a more concentrated look at FIU's chances in this Sun Belt matchup.
Tomorrow, I add up the value of each team's positions, factor in conference and home records, and reveal which team has the higher College Edge team rating. I believe FIU will be rated higher, but, at this point, I have no idea if I'm right. I'm looking forward to the answer.
My early impressions of FIU's team: offense in flux, defense should be strong.
The team looked relatively strong on offense with experience at every spot on that side of the ball, including 1200 yard-rusher Kedrick Rhodes. Here's the problem: designated starter at QB, Jake Medlock, is hurt. Now, Medlock isn't a returning starter from the '11 team, and he's only a sophomore, so he shouldn't be that hard to replace. His replacement is a freshman( EJ Hilliard), so that will be a big factor when I make my final decision tomorrow.
FIU has a large amount of starters back on defense(9.8), and the good point is last year's Panther defense, with most of these same players, was a very good one. Here is my challenge. FIU is 1-4 going into this game, which is okay since they did play UCF, Louisville, and Duke. The game that is making this whole endeavor challenging is their loss to Louisiana by the surprising score of 48-20! That's a pretty good butt-kicking, and that game will force me to take a more concentrated look at FIU's chances in this Sun Belt matchup.
Tomorrow, I add up the value of each team's positions, factor in conference and home records, and reveal which team has the higher College Edge team rating. I believe FIU will be rated higher, but, at this point, I have no idea if I'm right. I'm looking forward to the answer.
Wednesday, October 3, 2012
Anatomy of a Handicapped Game, Ark.St.vs FIU: Part I
Did you know the new coach of the Arkansas St. Red Wolves is Gus Malzahn? He's made his rep as an innovative offensive coordinator, who, it just so happens, was the OC for Cam Newton and the National Titlists of 2010, the Auburn Tigers. He's put a nice coaching staff together, but, he's never been a coach at a major college program. We'll see how he responds to the new position.
Just finished my evaluations of each position on the ArkSt team, and updated the stats for their first four games. My early impressions of this Sun Belt representative are: good offense, porous defense.
Wolves have QB Aplin back from last year's squad(1st team SBC QB), a decent O-line, serviceable running backs( although new RB Oku, completely unknown to me, has had some good games), above average receivers, and, theoretically, a well conceived offensive attack.
It's their defense that will probably have a great affect on my thinking for tomorrow night's contest vs. FIU. They've lost 6 all-SBC defenders from last year's highly rated defense. Included in those losses are both cornerbacks(!), SBC defensive Player of the Year Brandon Joiner ( 13 sacks in '11!!!), and 3rd round draft choice, and #1 tackler from last year's team, LB Demario Davis. Those are gigantic, humongous, losses.
I'll do my ratings of the Red Wolves later, but, I have a feeling I'm looking at a team that will score some points tomorrow night, but, will also give up a mess-load of points as well.
Next on the agenda: early impressions of the FIU Golden Panthers!
Just finished my evaluations of each position on the ArkSt team, and updated the stats for their first four games. My early impressions of this Sun Belt representative are: good offense, porous defense.
Wolves have QB Aplin back from last year's squad(1st team SBC QB), a decent O-line, serviceable running backs( although new RB Oku, completely unknown to me, has had some good games), above average receivers, and, theoretically, a well conceived offensive attack.
It's their defense that will probably have a great affect on my thinking for tomorrow night's contest vs. FIU. They've lost 6 all-SBC defenders from last year's highly rated defense. Included in those losses are both cornerbacks(!), SBC defensive Player of the Year Brandon Joiner ( 13 sacks in '11!!!), and 3rd round draft choice, and #1 tackler from last year's team, LB Demario Davis. Those are gigantic, humongous, losses.
I'll do my ratings of the Red Wolves later, but, I have a feeling I'm looking at a team that will score some points tomorrow night, but, will also give up a mess-load of points as well.
Next on the agenda: early impressions of the FIU Golden Panthers!
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