Marshall vs. FIU

FIU has the better defense. That's a nice place to start. They are going against what is probably considered the 3rd string QB in R.Cato. First and second-string QBs for Marshall have both been lost to injuries. Cato is a freshman, and, though he's gotten some experience playing, he's just not that good. And, he doesn't have a real strong infantry to offer him enough relief.
FIU has a more stable QB in Carroll, more potential in the running game with Rhodes and Perry, and a star in receiver Ty Hilton. Bottom line: more potential offensive threats.
Finally, FIU has the slight home advantage: the game is being played in Florida.
FIU is the recommendation.
Because Marshall is an injury away from total disaster, I think they'll play it close to the vest with the fr. QB. That should limit their scoring opportunities vs. a tough FIU defense.
On the other side of the ball, Marshall does play pretty decent defense, so I don't expect FIU to totally run away with the score.
The under in the FIU-Marshall contest is the recommendation.

FSU @ Florida: The Why

We're recommending the over in the FSU/Florida game. Here's why: FSU plays some of the toughest rush defense in college football. Seven of the eight games they've played in the ACC, the Seminoles have held the opposition under 3.5 yards-per carry. They'll stop Florida's rush offense mainly because Florida offers little threat thru the air. The Gator passing attack has been non-existent. So, I don't see Florida scoring much tonight.
FSU's rushing attack has been mediocre at best, so, consequently, I don't envision Seminoles running the ball much vs. relatively tough Gator rush D. FSU and QB Manuel do throw the ball pretty effectively, but, they are facing the strongest unit of the Gator team, their pass defense.
Hence, my recommendation of a low scoring, under- the- total match between these rivals.
FSU's on the road, and doesn't run the ball well, so, even though I'm leaning Seminoles, I can't take a team that doesn't run the ball well, particularly in a road game.

Coaches w. winning sprd. records with same team in years '08-'10

1)Al Golden from Temple: 7-4, 8-4, 7-5. Thanks, Golden, for making Temple respectable again. I am waiting for the right time to back Golden at Miami.
2)Frank Solich of Ohio: 7-4, 8-5, 8-5. Just a straight-up, good coach who probably shouldn't have been fired from Nebraska, and who is doing a nice job in the MAC's Ohio program.
3)Urban Meyer of Florida: 12-1, 7-6,7-6.The hell with stocks and mutual funds. If Meyer returns to coaching, I'd invest in whatever team Meyer coaches.
4)Nick Saban of Bama:9-5,9-4,8-5. NCAA's best coach?
5)Jim Harbaugh of Stanford: 7-5, 8-5, 8-5. He's bringing that same cold-bloodedness to the NFL.
6)Dave Wannstedt of Pitt: 7-6, 8-4, 7-4-2. Wannstedt got screwed at Pitt. He did a nice job there and no one loved his alma mater more than Pitt's fired coach.
7)Chris Petersen of Boise:8-4,9-4,9-4. You know what's ironic here: the coach prior to Petersen, Dan Hawkins, was as impressive as his successor, with 5 winning spread years in a row. Yet, Hawkins went to Colorado, and, essentially, sucked. It makes me wonder how Petersen would do at another school
8)Gary Patterson of TCU: 8-4, 8-4, 7-6: My man, GP, lost a 4-yr. starter at QB in Andy Dalton, 4 O-line starters from '10(including a 1st team AA at center!), and 7 starters on defense. He still has a pretty formidable team in what should've been a re-building year. I'm probably stretching this a bit, but, I consider Patterson close to being a defensive genius.
9)Dave Cutcliffe of Duke: 6-5, 5-4, 7-5: For those who took the time to take guesses on my query, this was the coaching guess which would've have qualified you for a bonus prize. It shouldn't be so surprising. Cutcliffe did a nice job at Mississippi before he was unjustly fired. He's also built a rep as working well with, and developing QBs(Count the Manning bros. in that group). Under the category of "always willing to change", I almost never considered Duke as a possible team I'd play week-to-week. Since "discovering" Cutcliffe's success as a spread coach, I now look at Duke each week as a potential recommendation.
Interesting side note: two of the aforementioned coaches faced each other yesterday: Golden vs. Cutcliffe. Miami got the win, and, I believe, the cover.

Hawaii vs. SanJoseSt.

Hawaii travels to the mainland for the second consecutive game, and though picking against the Rainbow Warriors makes me nervous, I'll do that tonight.
The key is SanJose St.'s main weapon, RB Rutley is playing tonight. That means the Spartans should offer some offense tonight. That's important, because I believe what gives SJSU the cover tonight are the 11 starters that are back on defense, including 4- AllWac defenders from 2010.(Look for DE Johnson, SS Ihenacho and the main star, LB Smith, who had 116 tackles and 4 sacks in '10).
SanJose St. is the recommendation.

USC at Cal

I'm always nervous going against a home team on a Thursday night, ESPN game. But, I will tonight.
First of all, Cal is playing their home games this year in SanFrancisco's AT&T Park, not in their under-repair stadium in Berkeley. Big difference! Home field advantage has been greatly minimized in this game.
So, for me, it comes down to the same problem I saw in Cal last week: they don't have the QB play, or, the offensive firepower to stay with an opponent that has the far better QB( USC's Barkley), and better overall offense.
USC's defense is sub-par, but, I just don't think Cal can take advantage of it enough to get the cover, or the win.
USC is the recommendation.

Vandy at Alabama & Michigan at Northwestern

Like Cal, Fresno St. and Uconn before them, how will Vandy score anything tonight? I mean, the Commodores gained a grand total of 77 yards vs. South Carolina. Need I say more? I will. Vandy got blasted by every high echelon team they played in '10. It'll happen again tonight.
Alabama is the recommendation.

Northwestern's QB Dan Persa is back! He went 12 for 16 last week, and he's resumed his role as one of the two best QBs in the Big 10(Russell Wilson being the other). He goes against a Michigan team that goes on the road for the first time. Except for Notre Dame, the Wolverines have played a pretty weak schedule, and in fact, in that N.D. game, Michigan gave up over 500 total yards.
With Persa back, I have the Wildcats as the higher rated team under my system. That means I believe Northwestern should be favored. They are underdogs!
Northwestern is the recommendation.

Boise St. vs. Fresno St: Friday, October 7, 2011

Read my recommendation on last night's Cal-Oregon game. A lot of the same principals apply here. Fresno St. is playing an excellent team in Boise St. The Broncos are prolific on both offense and defense. In order for the Bulldogs to have a chance against this team, everything must be in order. For the Bulldogs, in my opinion, it is not.
They do have the second-best offensive weapon on the field in RB Robbie Rouse, but, I just don't think he'll be enough. The Dogs have a new QB starting this year, and he's been mediocre, at best; they've lost 142 receptions at receiving positions; they've lost 4, all-WAC offensive linemen
from the '10 team; and, finally, they've lost 11 sacks and a rare #4 draft choice from last year's D-Line. An already porous defense could not afford that loss.
You can't play a strong Bronco team with that many deficiencies. By the way, Boise St. QB Kellen Moore had a sub-par game last week vs. Nevada. It won't happen again this week.
In my opinion, there are only two options in this game: Boise St., or, stay away from the game. I would never invest hard-earned cash on Fresno St in this kind of matchup. I'll take option #1 and recommend the Boise St Broncos in tonight's ESPN contest.

Cal's Golden Bears vs. Oregon Ducks

Last year Cal had an experienced QB who completed 60% of his passes. This year they have a starting QB in Maynard, who is the 253rd rated QB coming out of his HS class, is new to this Golden Bear system, and is a transfer from Buffalo U., where he was just mediocre. Unfortunately, that mediocrity has carried over to Cal.
Last year, Cal had 1200 yard-rusher, Shane Vereen. He left early and was drafted #2 in the NFL draft. His replacement is an okay, but, not dynamic runner Cal has consistently put on the field in recent years. (His name is Isi Sofele).
Cal's defense is okay, but, they have given up 21, 33 and 31 points to Fres.St, Colorado, and Washington, respectively. That won't cut it vs. Oregon.
Here is my bottom line: if Cal has a chance to stay in contention with Oregon, they need all their offensive "ducks" in line. They don't. I don't think you can go into Oregon(they're 8-2 as home favorites under Kelly) and expect to cover with BIG question marks on offense. And, Cal has big question marks on offense.
This is not a revenge game, but, it's close. Cal probably should have beaten the Ducks last year. I think coach Kelly will emphatically remind his team of that.
Oregon Ducks are my recommendation in tonight's ESPN, Pac 20 game. (I'll call the Pac 10 whatever I feel like calling them).

USF-Pitt: Sept. 30, 2011

I have a rating system I've worked on since the beginning of July, 2011. Every FBS team, with few exceptions, gets a rating from me. I consider every aspect of a team, and put a value on those parts of every team. I then factor in things like conference record, home-field, and more.
It is one of my key handicapping tools. I no longer let it completely govern my picks, but, it is still one of my main resources when I make my final decisions on a game.
I have Pitt as the higher rated team in this contest, and, if I were to put a line on this game, I would've made Pitt the favorite. They have an experienced defensive interior, decent DBacks, the best RB in the game in Graham, a formidable, and experienced QB in Sunseri, and the home-field in an ESPN game.
USF brings much to the table as well, not the least of which is a very good coach in Skip Holtz.
I just don't think the relatively weak schedule they've played to date(okay, N.Dame was a tough opponent, but, their stats in that game were less than impressive)which included Ball St, Fla.A&M and UTEP, warrants them being a favorite on the road vs. a very good Pitt team and program.
The Pitt Panthers are the pick in tonight's Big East contest!

4th Pick: A.J. Green

Great player departs Georgia, but, Bulldawgs have a returning, very good QB back, good RB back, and an all-SEC center returning. The Dawgs will miss Green, but, they'll more than survive.

3rd Pick: Marcell Dareus

Very good player for 'Bama, but, I don't believe his deparure will deter from the great defense I expect the Crimson Tide to play this year. Saban's problem will be with his offense. Reasoning for that to come.

2nd Pick: Von Miller

This guy almost single-handedly helped turn the A&M defense into a formidable unit. His departure will almost certainly return the Aggies to the pedestrian defense I've become used to. I'm not sure what his sack totals were this year, but, for the past two years his sack totals at 30, or higher. WOW!

First Pick: Cam Newton

Auburn will lose a quarterback who did everything for them this past championship season. The two years prior to his arrival, Auburn was 13-12 overall, and 5-11 vs. the SEC. With the loss of Newton, and no experienced QB returning, and also with the loss of 4 out of 5 offensive linemen from the championship team, I suspect I will be anxious to go against the Tigers this year.